Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

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Edo

The Mightiest Club
Jun 7, 2003
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But here's probably the most important part of the article, especially as it pertains to the Jays:

"Here’s one way to see the effect of a great bullpen. We’ll go back to using those last 20 years. Teams with bullpen WPAs north of 10 have averaged 96.5 wins. Teams with bullpen WPAs between 9 – 10 have averaged 94.9 wins. Teams with bullpen WPAs between 8 – 9 have averaged 92.8 wins. Teams with bullpen WPAs between 7 – 8 have averaged 94.1 wins. Teams with bullpen WPAs between 6 – 7 have averaged 89.8 wins."

As you can see, bullpen seems to be pretty important. We really really really really need to significantly improve our bullpen.

Our bullpen was an issue last year, and how many wins did we end up with? Obviously, teams with a high number of wins will have great stats across the board which also most likely means strong numbers out of the bull pen.

And again, Cecil-Sanchez-Osuna are the 7-8-9 guys. Look across the majors, and they stack up well against everybody. Add another great bull pen arm, and then you get into the elite territory.

People want everything. You can't have everything.
 

Mitchy

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Jul 12, 2012
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I would love to see them take a chance on lincecum on a one year deal (maybe an option for a second)
Worst case he becomes another bullpen arm.

Has there been any reports on what he would be looking for yearly???

I love Lincecum, but I think he's done now. His fastball is quite awful now. IIRC, he barely throws 90.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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guess what else is cool. On average teams will great WPA's from the offense do great, teams with good WPA's from the offense do good, teams with average WPA's from the offense do average, teams with bad WPA's from the offense do bad, and teams with horrible WPA's from the offense do horrible

On average teams will great WPA's from the SP do great, teams with good WPA's from the SP do good, teams with average WPA's from the SP do average, teams with bad WPA's from the SP do bad, and teams with horrible WPA's from the SP do horrible

if you average all the teams out, there will be a correlation between WPA's and wins in pretty much every category. Shocker, lots of things are important, that doesn't mean 1 just ok category means you can't succeed, you're taking an average of all teams the better a category then no **** the more wins for all teams on average. I'm rather surprised you needed an article to tell you that.
 

theaub

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Yeah lol

Its almost like having a good bullpen is better than having a bad bullpen. Shocker.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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guess what else is cool. On average teams will great WPA's from the offense do great, teams with good WPA's from the offense do good, teams with average WPA's from the offense do average, teams with bad WPA's from the offense do bad, and teams with horrible WPA's from the offense do horrible

On average teams will great WPA's from the SP do great, teams with good WPA's from the SP do good, teams with average WPA's from the SP do average, teams with bad WPA's from the SP do bad, and teams with horrible WPA's from the SP do horrible

if you average all the teams out, there will be a correlation between WPA's and wins in pretty much every category. Shocker, lots of things are important, that doesn't mean 1 just ok category means you can't succeed, you're taking an average of all teams the better a category then no **** the more wins for all teams on average. I'm rather surprised you needed an article to tell you that.

Do you have numbers behind that for relative comparison? It's far cheaper to build a great bullpen than a great SP rotation or a great offense. If a great bullpen is as valuable, or nearly as valuable as a great SP rotation or a great offense, then why does this club (and this board) continuously puts the BP at such low priority?
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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8So the Nats seem very eager to move Storen. Would be a great piece for the pen. Arb projects him at about 8.8 though which is way too much. I'm sure we could get the Nats to eat a little of it and he probably wouldn't cost much because of their desire to move him. He'd be a very nice add to the pen and he's young. Although this is his last year or arbitration. High k pitcher out of the pen could go a long way for us.
 

LaCarriere

Registered User
Do you have numbers behind that for relative comparison? It's far cheaper to build a great bullpen than a great SP rotation or a great offense. If a great bullpen is as valuable, or nearly as valuable as a great SP rotation or a great offense, then why does this club (and this board) continuously puts the BP at such low priority?

Blue Jays hitters WPA last year (min 10 plate appearances to remove pitchers from interleague play) was 10.99. If you want to count all at bats it drops to 10.72 which lead the league.

Last year the Pirates had the best BP WPA at 11.80. By comparison the Jays were 27th at -1.81.

For starters the Cardinals topped the league at 14.09. Jays were 18th at 1.28.

Based on this, my intuition was somewhat right. All 3 probably hold close to equal value -- if you are elite in 1 area you have a shot. The Jays had close to average SP, a terrible BP and the best offense and they made it to the ALCS, losing to the eventual WS Champs in a 6 game series. You don't need to be elite everywhere. Being even average in 2 of these areas, and near the top in another and you're in good shape, and then it comes down to whether you get hot at the right time, don't get cold at the wrong time (which happened to the Jays against the Royals) and the baseball gods. People saying the Jays need to add 2 more pen arms, or another starter simply want the world, but it's certainly not required to be above average everywhere. That's incredibly hard to build - a lot has to go right.

Also of interest, in the last 10 years only 3 teams have had BPs with WPAs above 10.00 and 10 times over 9.00. As for offense, over the last 10 years it's happened 6 times over 10.00 and 12 times over 9.00. For Starters it's happened 17 times over 10.00, and 30 times over 9.00. This doesn't surprise me, as of the 3 groups the relievers get the least amount of playing time (most starters get 2-3x the innings of a reliever), and with WPA being a cumulative stat this means fewer opportunities to add to that win probability. This is probably why the bullpen comes after offense and SP for many teams -- they simply don't get as much playing time and teams on a budget would rather spend on guys that are going to get the most time.

Is building an elite BP cheaper than an offense or rotation? Probably, but it seems to be a lot harder. Here's a link to 2014s top paid relievers;

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/17/6264159/highest-paid-relievers-baseball

A lot of high paid relievers not really doing much, so GMs and Scouts have to search for those needles in a haystack, and be effective for more than a couple years, or find reclamation projects and take a chance on them.

The other thing is bullpens are volatile, have a high turnover rate and are built short term. Relievers don't get 6+ year deals because there's about a 100% chance of that deal going sour and fast. Teams are constantly making moves to their pens. Position players and Starters get those long term deals because they are the best of the best, and are going to be worth the contract for a good chunk of it before they are overpaid in the final years - which is simply the cost of doing business with elite SP/position players thru FA.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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the question is whether WPA is actually a projectable skill. especially in terms of the small sample that relief innings always are.

the jays bullpen was actually very good last year, but were remarkably unclutch. do we now believe in clutch again?
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Jays were the 1st team to register a 10+ batting WPA and not win the WS since the 2006 Yankees. 2013 Red Sox, 2012 Giants, 2011 Cards, and 2009 Yankees all had 10+. It's always easy to shape statistics to favour a point of view.

Basically it all boils down to having a good team and being hot when it matters most.
 

hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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1. andrew miller, lhp, yankees — it’s more likely that the yankees will keep their uber-bullpen intact rather than trade miller, according to a major league source. Teams like houston and toronto have inquired about miller, but the yankees want back a young top-of-the-rotation starter, and that doesn’t appear to be available to them. Lance mccullers was the target in houston, but he is off-limits. the blue jays would have to give up someone such as marcus stroman, and that’s just not happening.

9. fernando rodney, rhp, free agent — he had a terrible season for the mariners last year (5-5, 5.68 era), but once he got to the cubs, he made 14 very good appearances, going 2-0 with an 0.75 era and a 1.00 whip. The 38-year-old veteran has been a tough sell, but the cubs have talked about bringing him back and the padres have shown interest. the blue jays have also kicked the tires.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Our bullpen was an issue last year, and how many wins did we end up with? Obviously, teams with a high number of wins will have great stats across the board which also most likely means strong numbers out of the bull pen.

And again, Cecil-Sanchez-Osuna are the 7-8-9 guys. Look across the majors, and they stack up well against everybody. Add another great bull pen arm, and then you get into the elite territory.

People want everything. You can't have everything.

Not to mention, Cecil-Sanchez-Osuna (the three guys with at least 1.0 Average Leverage who are returning this year) combined to allow 2.6 runs per 9 innings. That entire article is about how Yankees have a spectacular back-end of the bullpen and a crappy group of low-leverage guys. The Jays back-end may not be as dominant, but it still looks to be outstanding.

And if you want to look at WPA, how many of last year's negative-WPA relievers project to be in the major league bullpen this year?

The bullpen doesn't look great right now, but it looks fine.
 

theaub

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Nov 21, 2008
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Wasn't Rodney tipping his pitches and the Jays pointed it out to him after the series in Seattle (and as such it makes sense he was good in Chicago)?

He'd be a decent addition. Him and a decent second lefty and I think we're good to go.
 

BlueForever

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Wasn't Rodney tipping his pitches and the Jays pointed it out to him after the series in Seattle (and as such it makes sense he was good in Chicago)?

He'd be a decent addition. Him and a decent second lefty and I think we're good to go.

Everyone is forgetting about Loup. The guy had a tough season but he isn't chopped liver. The guy is very decent when asked to do his job against lefties. he was exposed this past season because he was struggling against righties and Gibbons had no other choices in the bullpen. But placing Loup in the mix as a lefty specialist along with Schultz who showed glimpses last season. We may not have a bad bullpen after all. Then add Chavez or Hutch as you long man. Your bullpen is not to shabby.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Schultz won't (or should not) make the team. With Osuna/Cecil/Sanchez/Loup occupying the top 4, I'd rather one of the righty MR options on the free agent front like Blanton, Rodney, Hunter, Alburquerque, or Ohlendorf.

Bastardo, Thornton, Morales, Parra, Ramos for a 3rd lefty in necessary (Bastardo being a more elite option). Venditte might be able to tackle that and take a spot though as a strict LOOGY.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Everyone is forgetting about Loup. The guy had a tough season but he isn't chopped liver. The guy is very decent when asked to do his job against lefties. he was exposed this past season because he was struggling against righties and Gibbons had no other choices in the bullpen. But placing Loup in the mix as a lefty specialist along with Schultz who showed glimpses last season. We may not have a bad bullpen after all. Then add Chavez or Hutch as you long man. Your bullpen is not to shabby.

It's not a bad bullpen...at all. Anyone stating that it is may be over reacting.

Regarding Loup; career low LOB% + career high BABIP (by a lot) + career high HR/FB ratio (by a lot) ...All while having...career high K/9, career low BB/9, career low SIERA and xFIP, and career high velocity...I'll bet he's tremendous next season; will start as a LOOGY but transition into a high leverage MR by seasons end.

As for Schultz, my bet is he'll end up behind several other org relievers that are more effective by June. Guys like Blake McFarland (Jon Rauch type, 11.87 k/9 in AA), Danny Barnes (Casey Janssen type, 10.98 k/9 in AA) and even Chad Girodo (side arm loogy, 0.63 ERA in AA).
 

TF97

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Jul 4, 2010
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It's not a bad bullpen...at all. Anyone stating that it is may be over reacting.

Regarding Loup; career low LOB% + career high BABIP (by a lot) + career high HR/FB ratio (by a lot) ...All while having...career high K/9, career low BB/9, career low SIERA and xFIP, and career high velocity...I'll bet he's tremendous next season; will start as a LOOGY but transition into a high leverage MR by seasons end.

As for Schultz, my bet is he'll end up behind several other org relievers that are more effective by June. Guys like Blake McFarland (Jon Rauch type, 11.87 k/9 in AA), Danny Barnes (Casey Janssen type, 10.98 k/9 in AA) and even Chad Girodo (side arm loogy, 0.63 ERA in AA).

You're saying that as if it is a good thing :sarcasm:
 
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