GDT: Let the Free Agency Madness begin

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The Canes' 3rd line last year felt like what elite 4th lines did pre-salary cap. I imagine, though, that if all players were healthy last year, Martinook likely would've been slotted back to the 4th line. As great as the defensive play truly was, I'm sure that a bit of scoring from the likes of Teravainen (or even Pacioretty or Jarvis) would've been a welcome addition.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Okay, playing around in the data I'll confess to having underestimated them.

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

The Best Offensive and Defensive Lines in the NHL

moneypuck.com

Offensive lines only, min 149 minutes (yielding a perfect 128 lines, exactly 4 per team average).

This is extremely misleading. A lot of those lines aren't really "3rd lines". Take Carolina for instance. Within that "149 Minutes" we have:

Svech-KK-Necas
TT-Aho-Jarvis
Svech-Stastny-Necas
Martinook-Staal-Fast
Stepan-Stastny-Noesen

So because of injuries, there are 2 'second lines" and 1 4th line in this sample. I guarantee you there are a lot of situations like this when you look at 149 minutes, a lot of multiple 1st/2nd lines per team. I see the same with other teams (Kaprizov on multiple lines in this analysis for example. Crosby on 2 different lines. Pastrnak on 3 different lines in this analysis.

xGA/60 they rank 12th. Damn good, sure. We did all know that. I use the xGA here to try and account for quality of competition- highly imperfect (look at the Canes lines's offensive rankings on xGF v GF for a sense of just how bad it really is) but the best offered here.

Yep.

Goals (not expected, because the difference between expected goals and actual goals is not small with the Canes system and crappy finishing) for per 60? They rank 73. Which is decent in the 3rd line category. But if memory serves, nearly all of offense came early in the season, so that's probably biasing my view here quite a bit. Down the stretch and apart from Marty in the playoffs they were invisible offensively.

Here are the next 10 lines that rank just below (worse than) them in this category per Moneypuck:

Kaprizov-Hartman-Zuccarello
Teravainen-Aho-Jarvis
Guentzel-Crosby-Rackell
Peterka-Cousins-Quinn
Lafrenier-Trocheck-Panarin
Nyquist-Jenner-Gaudreau
Olofsson-Mittelstadt-Jost
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Kreider-Zib-Kakko
Svech-KK-Necas

That's not "decent 3rd line category". Particularly when you consider many of the lines in your analysis are just multiple 1st and 2nd line permutations for the same team.

I still wouldn't call them the best 3rd line in the NHL though, since the defensive role they're elite at is still, at its core, a 4th line responsibility for nearly all teams.

Oh, and iterations of our 1st and 2nd lines are offensively ranked in the 3rd line range, and our 4th line is in the bottom 3rd of all 4th lines. Not good.

That's not true at all. Most 4th lines play 10 min or less per game and have the easiest quality of competition. They aren't facing the other teams top competition night in and night out. That's not what that line did.

I get it, you aren't a fan of Staal, which is fine, but you are going out of your way to make a point that the data doesn't support.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well since I started this mess I should point out the fact that I said they were “probably the best 3rd line in league” more than a confident “they absolutely are”. I don’t really care if they are. I’m sure you can view the stats in a variety of directions to argue for a few other 3rd lines. In my mind they are the best, especially at what they do. Grind, possess, shut down. They score a little bit too which to me makes them the most valuable third line in the league. You can say that’s a fourth line duty but you don’t play your fourth line against the other teams best.

Our system depends on the first and second lines scoring consistently for this concept to truly reach its max potential. That’s where I tend to focus my concerns with, particularly with Koko. He and his line have to be productive so it doesn’t matter that Staal’s line isn’t really concerned with scoring as much as cycling and grinding.

 

[Ben Grimm]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/whats-next-for-the-carolina-hurricanes-this-off-season

 

[cptjeff]

This is extremely misleading. A lot of those lines aren't really "3rd lines". Take Carolina for instance. Within that "149 Minutes" we have:

Svech-KK-Necas
TT-Aho-Jarvis
Svech-Stastny-Necas
Martinook-Staal-Fast
Stepan-Stastny-Noesen

So because of injuries, there are 2 'second lines" and 1 4th line in this sample. I

Oh, FFS, it's imperfect because virtually no line stays together very long in the NHL. I set the sample so that you'd get 128 lines exactly, which will get you statistically valid rankings 1-32=1st line caliber, 33-64 2nd line, 65-96 3rd line, 97-128 4th (the math was easier when there were 30 teams, damnit). Some teams will have more lines in there, some teams will have fewer just because there are only a half dozen lines in the NHL that stay consistently the same over a season, but this gives you the rough positioning against other consistent line combinations. That way, you get a great idea of where any given line stands against the rest of the league even if it's imperfect. The fact that even our temporary injury lines appear there show that Brind'Amour changes lines far less than other teams, which is interesting in itself, but this is a problem with dozens of variables and I'm just holding a bunch of the less relevant ones constant to get a rough picture of reality.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Down the stretch and apart from Marty in the playoffs they were invisible offensively.

LOL, all 3 of them had more points than Necas and KK in the playoffs. Martinook led the whole damn team in points and Fast scored the most goals.

 

[cptjeff]

LOL, all 3 of them had more points than Necas and KK in the playoffs. Martinook led the whole damn team in points and Fast scored the most goals.

That's not a defense of the 3rd line, that's an indictment of just how bad the rest of the forwards were. Don't compare to the rest of the team, compare to peers across the league.

 

[Joe McGrath]

That's not a defense of the 3rd line, that's an indictment of just how bad the rest of the forwards were. Don't compare to the rest of the team, compare to peers across the league.

Ok….Martinook was 24th in the league in points.

Fast was 16th in goals.

Staal was the worst and he was still over .5 PPG. He was 108 out of 300 players in PPG. If you just want forwards 88th out of 219.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

In the current lineup TT is a fourth liner.

Svech - Aho - Jarvis
Bunting - Koko - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Fast
Rees/Pono - Drury - TT - Noesen

Moving TT is about his salary on the fourth line more than anything else imo. Of course injuries will happen so he’d be a nice luxury but it isn’t cap smart when we tend to be cap smart. Sjkei on the third pair doesn’t make a lot of sense to me either, while letting Pesce play out does make some sense especially if we get something back for Skjei.

TT has always made sense in the EK trade to me because he helps them with skill this year, and they can trade him at the deadline so they get cap space for it next season. It obviously also helps us fit EK.

Even if EK doesn’t happen I would think moving TT is still on the table. Presumably Skjei as well unless the market is soft for either moving him or for finding the right third pair guy.

Nah I think Marty drops to 4th line. Bunting or TT on Staal’s wing and the other in the top 6

 

[bleedgreen]

LOL, all 3 of them had more points than Necas and KK in the playoffs. Martinook led the whole damn team in points and Fast scored the most goals.

I agree with you overall on this issue, I just wanted to point out something about the Staal line playoff performance. The team slowly evolved after the Svech injury into the playoffs imo. It was clear we didn’t have enough scoring, and our scorers like Necas were getting ground down. The team really embraced Rod’s style to a whole new level of execution. Everyone doubled down on the buy in. In such a system, in the playoffs where everything turns into the grind that this line specializes in it’s pretty unsurprising that they brought more offense. It’s the time of year where grinders always start showing up more on a scoresheet.

I’m just saying it’s hard to use this years playoff performance as an argument about what line really carries the mail for this team. The scorers get us into the playoffs, the grinders have huge moments in the playoffs. That’s pretty standard.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I agree with you overall on this issue, I just wanted to point out something about the Staal line playoff performance. The team slowly evolved after the Svech injury into the playoffs imo. It was clear we didn’t have enough scoring, and our scorers like Necas were getting ground down. The team really embraced Rod’s style to a whole new level of execution. Everyone doubled down on the buy in. In such a system, in the playoffs where everything turns into the grind that this line specializes in it’s pretty unsurprising that they brought more offense. It’s the time of year where grinders always start showing up more on a scoresheet.

I’m just saying it’s hard to use this years playoff performance as an argument about what line really carries the mail for this team. The scorers get us into the playoffs, the grinders have huge moments in the playoffs. That’s pretty standard.

I was only responding to the idea that they disappeared in the playoffs which much like the rest of the points made were complete bullshit.

 

[hblueridgegal]

May want to factor in how TT feels about playing on the 3rd or 4th line and on the 2nd PP unit. In his interviews, he made a point of mentioning how the change affected his scoring and mentality. Some might say his dismay was rather on display.

I don't think he enjoyed the 2nd line away from Aho either but it looked better than the Staal designated doghouse spot.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Does anyone have a TLDR on this entire thread?

 

[Lempo]

Does anyone have a TLDR on this entire thread?

We're bored and wish that someone would do something.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Oh, FFS, it's imperfect because virtually no line stays together very long in the NHL. I set the sample so that you'd get 128 lines exactly, which will get you statistically valid rankings 1-32=1st line caliber, 33-64 2nd line, 65-96 3rd line, 97-128 4th (the math was easier when there were 30 teams, damnit). Some teams will have more lines in there, some teams will have fewer just because there are only a half dozen lines in the NHL that stay consistently the same over a season, but this gives you the rough positioning against other consistent line combinations. That way, you get a great idea of where any given line stands against the rest of the league even if it's imperfect. The fact that even our temporary injury lines appear there show that Brind'Amour changes lines far less than other teams, which is interesting in itself, but this is a problem with dozens of variables and I'm just holding a bunch of the less relevant ones constant to get a rough picture of reality.

Oh FFS? LOL. It's a valid point.

My point is that you are making an assumption that 1-32 are 1st lines, 33-64 are 2nd, etc.... among these 128 lines and I'm showing you that it's not the case and thus the "rough positioning" doesn't mean what you think it means. Just look at the 10 lines that ranked just after the Staal line and it should tell you all you need to know.

Also, I realize that choosing 149 minutes gives you 128 lines, but going to that low of a number (149 min) is not statistically significant when it comes to using G/60 as a measure. 1 single goal has way more of an impact with small number of minutes. For instance, Svech-Necas-Stastny: 3.12 goals / 60. 1 less goal and the number drops below Staal's line. 1 more goal and the number pushes them above DeBrusk-Bergeron-Marchand and just below Bunting-Matthews and Marner. So are they 1 goal away from being a bad 3rd line? Or 1 goal way from being a good 1st line?

 

[ndp]

May want to factor in how TT feels about playing on the 3rd or 4th line and on the 2nd PP unit. In his interviews, he made a point of mentioning how the change affected his scoring and mentality. Some might say his dismay was rather on display.

I don't think he enjoyed the 2nd line away from Aho either but it looked better than the Staal designated doghouse spot.

I’ve said it a hundred times and I’ll say it a hundred more.

The decision to break up the highest scoring duo in Hurricanes history will always baffle me.

And I’m with @Boom Boom Apathy I wouldn’t do a damn thing with TT until Aho puts pen to paper. Not that I think it would ultimately effect Aho’s decision to re-sign, but it might have an effect on how much it’s going to cost.

Assuming TT isn’t traded, if he comes into camp in shape and with a chip on his shoulder I would love to see:
Bunting-Aho-Turbo
Given a shot.
Get TT back on his offside and maybe a spot on PP1 where he was a 70pt player.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Does anyone have a TLDR on this entire thread?

Bleed said: That the Staal line was probably the best third line in the league.

Cptjeff said: And no, our 3rd line last year was not the best 3rd line in the league. It was the best 4th line in the league. Pure defense with occasional chipping in on scoring is not a 3rd line role anymore, that's what you expect your 4th line to do.

Multiple posters disagreed and showed that their scoring was better than many lines in the NHL, certainly better than 4th lines and better than many top 6 lines and they did it playing great defense and going against top competition.

The marching band refused to yield. Do you recall what was revealed the day, the music died?

 

[WreckingCrew]

May want to factor in how TT feels about playing on the 3rd or 4th line and on the 2nd PP unit. In his interviews, he made a point of mentioning how the change affected his scoring and mentality. Some might say his dismay was rather on display.

I don't think he enjoyed the 2nd line away from Aho either but it looked better than the Staal designated doghouse spot.

Doesn't surprise me that it may have had some effect, but didn't he also come into camp kind of out of shape? And he was pretty much lagging from first puck drop, which is why he eventually got demoted...rather than struggling bc he got demoted.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Doesn't surprise me that it may have had some effect, but didn't he also come into camp kind of out of shape? And he was pretty much lagging from first puck drop, which is why he eventually got demoted...rather than struggling bc he got demoted.

He said it was a vicious circle for him - injuries, demotion, mental, missed 14 games - but also implied that being on those lower lines and on PP2 wasn’t going to help him improve his scoring.

 

[ndp]

Doesn't surprise me that it may have had some effect, but didn't he also come into camp kind of out of shape? And he was pretty much lagging from first puck drop, which is why he eventually got demoted...rather than struggling bc he got demoted.

Was the out of shape thing ever actually reported anywhere or was that message board speculation?

TT has never struck me as a gym rat and I think that reason alone probably puts him a step behind the “hard working” types when it comes to Rod. I personally think Rod is going to favor a gym rat Jarvis type vs a more “heady” TT type even if the type TT puts up 20+ more points. It’s the same reason I think Rod is probably going to ride that Jordan Staal horse into the ground over the next three seasons.

But talent is talent, some guys just don’t have to work as hard as others, and working harder doesn’t necessarily make them better at what they do.

If you were hiring a contractor to build a house would you want the best or the one that works the hardest? You can dig a ditch with a shovel or a mini excavator, both are viable options.

I’ve worked with multiple guys in kitchens who worked and sweated their ass off every night and got half the work done vs the guy who was just naturally really good at his job.

 

[Tryamw]

I'm sure @geehaad already knows this, but.....if you're looking for sanity then HF26 might be a wrong turn....

It was a left turn at Albuquerque

 

[Tryamw]

Needs moar Jarvis.

He ded...

 

[NotOpie]

TT has never struck me as a gym rat and I think that reason alone probably puts him a step behind the “hard working” types when it comes to Rod. I personally think Rod is going to favor a gym rat Jarvis type vs a more “heady” TT type even if the type TT puts up 20+ more points. It’s the same reason I think Rod is probably going to ride that Jordan Staal horse into the ground over the next three seasons.

Wasn't there a quote from Rod last season about how TT didn't care very much about practice, but in the games few were as competitive or as dedicated to his craft. Because Turbo plays such good defense, I'm sure Rod has a soft spot for that.

 

[ndp]

Wasn't there a quote from Rod last season about how TT didn't care very much about practice, but in the games few were as competitive or as dedicated to his craft. Because Turbo plays such good defense, I'm sure Rod has a soft spot for that.

Very well could’ve been. I definitely think Rod appreciates TT’s defensive prowess, holding a one goal lead late in a game and TT is almost always on the ice.

I could also see Rod being frustrated with a player like Turbo, if the assumptions of his him being out of shape and supposed lack of work ethic is true.

 

[Francis10]

Wasn't there a quote from Rod last season about how TT didn't care very much about practice, but in the games few were as competitive or as dedicated to his craft. Because Turbo plays such good defense, I'm sure Rod has a soft spot for that.

I would 100% disagree with that. TT’s effort level all year was pathetic.

Instead of pouting about not being on PP1 or not playing 1st line with Aho, pick up your lip and be a professional and work harder to get back to where you think you belong.