GDT: Let the Free Agency Madness begin

[StormCast]

yet....I'm sure RBA will teach him his responsibilities.....

He's not a miracle worker. He'll insist he works hard but Bunting already does that. Some guys just aren't good at reading a play developing or taking proper routes. If RBA was some kind of NHL sensei, Svech wouldn't commit so many stick penalties and Necas would make better decisions with the puck.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Which makes me think...Turbo...may he be a fit with Staal? Hmmmm...defensive skills, positioning, and awareness?

Bunting-Aho-Jarvis
Svech-KK-Necas
Turbo-Staal-Fast
Martinook-Drury-Noesen

I like the look of that forward group a lot.

I think the plan last going into season was for TT to play on Staal’s wing so you aren’t far off.

 

[AD Skinner]

Am I on crack or didn’t staal and turbo have a nice run playing together a few years ago?

I mean two things can be true at the same time I guess

 

[cptjeff]

Turbo will be better than last year, but he has not been the Turbo of years past where he shared a brain with Aho and made jaw dropping passes for a while now, and he won't be that again next year. He's a prime candidate for a trade now or at the deadline, and people need to get used to that idea.

And no, our 3rd line last year was not the best 3rd line in the league. It was the best 4th line in the league. Pure defense with occasional chipping in on scoring is not a 3rd line role anymore, that's what you expect your 4th line to do.

 

[chaz4hockey]

He's not a miracle worker. He'll insist he works hard but Bunting already does that. Some guys just aren't good at reading a play developing or taking proper routes. If RBA was some kind of NHL sensei, Svech wouldn't commit so many stick penalties and Necas would make better decisions with the puck.

Perhaps, but both Svetch and Necas have improved.

 

[spockBokk]

I’d hope the team takes a page out of the Panthers’ playbook and goes with a 3rd scoring line plus checking line (Staal line) instead of their typical 2 scoring line, checking line and 4th line lucky to get 10mins a night, approach.

I also hope they inject some youth into the 3rd scoring/4th line. It’s time to see what they have in Ponomarev/Rees/Suzuki.

 

[Joe McGrath]

And no, our 3rd line last year was not the best 3rd line in the league. It was the best 4th line in the league. Pure defense with occasional chipping in on scoring is not a 3rd line role anymore, that's what you expect your 4th line to do.

What the actual f*** are you talking about?

Martinook was on the ice for the 3rd most even strength goals scored for forwards last year and Staal was tied for 4th (with Jarvis). Playing against the other teams top scoring lines and out producing them.

Honestly in terms of scoring at even strength they were closer to being the 2nd line than the 4th.

 

[MinJaBen]

And no, our 3rd line last year was not the best 3rd line in the league. It was the best 4th line in the league. Pure defense with occasional chipping in on scoring is not a 3rd line role anymore, that's what you expect your 4th line to do.

What is your scoring expectation for a 3rd line vs. a 4th line? Does that align with league averages? Staal, Martinook, and Fast scored 97 points last year. I don't know what the league average is for 3rd lines, but when I used the Quora AI tool to try to find the answer, it came back with an average of 25 to 34 points per forward for a 3rd line forward. That is right in line with Staal's line.

 

[cptjeff]

What the actual f*** are you talking about?

Martinook was on the ice for the 3rd most even strength goals scored for forwards last year and Staal was tied for 4th (with Jarvis). Playing against the other teams top scoring lines and out producing them.

Honestly in terms of scoring at even strength they were closer to being the 2nd line than the 4th.

Martinook-Staal-Fast combined scored all of 40 goals. Total. That is not remotely impressive. If that ranked highly on the team in any way it only shows just how awful our offense was.

 

[A Star is Burns]

It doesn't bother me if someone like Turbo plays down the lineup. He's a good candidate to move up when needed for any reason. And he can still get time on the PP and the PK even from the "4th line". And the roster construction is going to be weird for the next 4 years with Staal, which is why I wasn't opposed to moving on from him. I think as long as Staal is here, it's just easiest to think of that as the checking line (which I'm not in love with as a concept anymore) and the "4th line" as hopefully more of a 3rd line or 3rd scoring line depending on how it's constructed.

I also would not mind Turbo on the Staal line as he's a decent fit for that. I don't know if Rod will insist on keeping Marty there or not. He was occasionally flexible in the postseason, but that was mostly out of necessity.

I guess I'm also not opposed to any number of outcomes with Turbo. He stays and plays any number of roles for his final year, cool. He agrees to take a small enough contract to stay where he's (presumably) happy beyond this season, cool. They trade him to open up flexibility for another move or another type of player, cool.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Martinook-Staal-Fast combined scored all of 40 goals. Total. That is not remotely impressive. If that ranked highly on the team in any way it only shows just how awful our offense was.

Almost entirely at even strength. Against the other teams best lines, preventing them from scoring.

Jordan Staal had as many even strength goals as Tomas Hertl and Patrice Bergeron and Joe Pavelski last year.

Martinook had more than Marchand, Kevin Hayes, Taylor Hall and Elias Lindholm.

Fast was tied with Eric Haula, who is supposed to be a goal scorer.

Nobody is going to confuse these guys with top end talent but dismissing that production while also not giving up as many goals as that against in their role is laughable.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Martinook-Staal-Fast combined scored all of 40 goals. Total. That is not remotely impressive. If that ranked highly on the team in any way it only shows just how awful our offense was.

Martinook-Staal-Fast were tied for the 4th most 5v5 goals of any line (as in when playing together) in the NHL last season with 36. The 4 lines above them?

1) Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski: 52
2) Skinner-Thompson-Tuch: 42
3) McCann-Beniers-Eberle: 40
4) Hagel-Point-Kucherov and Martinook-Staal-Fast: 36

Granted, they had more time together than most of those lines, but just looking at Carolina, they scored at a goals / 60 at a higher rate than both TT-Aho-Jarvis and Svech-KK-Necas.

Given that they had way more defensive zone draws and went up against much tougher competition, that's pretty impressive.

 

[cptjeff]

Almost entirely at even strength. Against the other teams best lines, preventing them from scoring.

Jordan Staal had as many even strength goals as Tomas Hertl and Patrice Bergeron and Joe Pavelski last year.

Martinook had more than Marchand, Kevin Hayes, Taylor Hall and Elias Lindholm.

Fast was tied with Eric Haula, who is supposed to be a goal scorer.

Nobody is going to confuse these guys with top end talent but dismissing that production while also not giving up as many goals as that against in their role is laughable.

I'm not trying to dismiss it- they do good work. I'm just trying to call out the utterly absurd statement that they're the best 3rd line in the league. They're just not that good. They play the role that's typical of a 4th line in this era of hockey and they contribute the average offense for an NHL 3rd line. To call that the best 3rd line in the NHL is some Jonathan Toews level of overrating.

 

[MinJaBen]

I'm not trying to dismiss it- they do good work. I'm just trying to call out the utterly absurd statement that they're the best 3rd line in the league. They're just not that good. They play the role that's typical of a 4th line in this era of hockey and they contribute the average offense for an NHL 3rd line. To call that the best 3rd line in the NHL is some Jonathan Toews level of overrating.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not trying to dismiss it- they do good work. I'm just trying to call out the utterly absurd statement that they're the best 3rd line in the league. They're just not that good. They play the role that's typical of a 4th line in this era of hockey and they contribute the average offense for an NHL 3rd line. To call that the best 3rd line in the NHL is some Jonathan Toews level of overrating.

So since they scored at a higher rate 5v5 than the lines of TT-Aho-Jarvis and Svech-KK-Necas, you are suggesting that the Canes, who ended up with the 2nd best record in the NHL, have 4 lines that produce at a rate that is average or below average for an NHL 3rd line?

 

[geehaad]

they contribute the average offense for an NHL 3rd line

Shut these knuckleheads up by naming 15 better 3rd lines.

 

[zman77]

Friedman talks about 'Canes & Karlsson among other things.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Shut these knuckleheads up by naming 15 better 3rd lines.

Yep, And the data to back up why they are better.

 

[Ole Gil]

Other than scoring a bunch of goals at even strength, and being one of the best defensive lines in the league, and winning all their faceoffs, and dominating possession, and being physical, name one good thing they do?

 

[geehaad]

Yep, And the data to back up why they are better.

Now you're just being mean.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Other than scoring a bunch of goals at even strength, and being one of the best defensive lines in the league, and winning all their faceoffs, and dominating possession, and being physical, name one good thing they do?

The aqueducts?

 

[SeaBasstian]

Friedman talks about 'Canes & Karlsson among other things.

Guessing you didn't read through the thread and see where this was posted hours ago

 

[Stickpucker]

I still like Caleb Jones for the 3rd pair...not sure how he isnt signed yet.

I trade Skjei and use the difference plus out cap space to nab a forward upgrade.

 

[cptjeff]

Yep, And the data to back up why they are better.

Okay, playing around in the data I'll confess to having underestimated them.

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

The Best Offensive and Defensive Lines in the NHL

moneypuck.com

Offensive lines only, min 149 minutes (yielding a perfect 128 lines, exactly 4 per team average).

xGA/60 they rank 12th. Damn good, sure. We did all know that. I use the xGA here to try and account for quality of competition- highly imperfect (look at the Canes lines's offensive rankings on xGF v GF for a sense of just how bad it really is) but the best offered here.

Goals (not expected, because the difference between expected goals and actual goals is not small with the Canes system and crappy finishing) for per 60? They rank 73. Which is decent in the 3rd line category. But if memory serves, nearly all of offense came early in the season, so that's probably biasing my view here quite a bit. Down the stretch and apart from Marty in the playoffs they were invisible offensively.

I still wouldn't call them the best 3rd line in the NHL though, since the defensive role they're elite at is still, at its core, a 4th line responsibility for nearly all teams.

Oh, and iterations of our 1st and 2nd lines are offensively ranked in the 3rd line range, and our 4th line is in the bottom 3rd of all 4th lines. Not good.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I still wouldn't call them the best 3rd line in the NHL though, since the defensive role they're elite at is still, at its core, a 4th line responsibility for nearly all teams.

I challenge this premise. I don’t think a team’s top scoring line sees a steady diet of the opposing team’s 4th line when they’re on the road, in almost any situation. The typical 4th line’s role nowadays is to provide fresh legs and energy while trying not to get completely caved in.