Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Fourier]

Thanks, I forgot. Did the Pens also have bad contracts and buyouts? It's a good thing our 4 guys are at 42% of the cap next year, have to add Brown's 3.25, Neal's 1.9 and Soup's 1.1. That's 6 million bucks right there. When Drai/Bouch kick in we owe 2.2 to JC, when McD's kicks in will be 2.6 million. That's 2.6 less to play with as these big contracts kick in.

You've proven winning a cup at 46% can be done but this is going to on the high end. Just posted the same stats for the 4 most recent cup winners. Ideally this is where you want to be, especially when paying JC not to play here. It all adds up.

You can't count Neal's buyout and the Brown's overage if you are talking about the year McDavid's deal is up.

As to bad contracts, aside from Nurse who is already factored into the equation which bad contracts do you see the Oilers having in the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons? If anything they have key players on cheap deals.

There are still a lot of unknowns that could impact things. Maybe a guy like Savoie takes off and you have an impact high end forward at $880K.

The Pens had Sergei Plotnikov earning the equivalent of $5.2M for which he delivered them all of 2 assists. Trevor Daley was getting the equivalent of $4.6M. The also had Fleury at the equivalent of $8M sitting on the bench for the playoffs.

 

[powerserge]

Here’s a little exercise for you.

Add up their points in the past 5 years including playoffs and then revisit your comparable.

I think you need a serge protector as the powerserge shorted out yer brain.

Not sure what's up with the insults and not sure where an old nick name came up lol. Add up their points sure, now put McD with those comparables to play with to see if their numbers increase whereas Drai's numbers would decrease without him. Already gave the Hyman example earlier. Played with top players in TO, came here, his numbers increased as McD is a step above other great players.

You believe what you believe, this is a board and think made quite a few reasonable points. Long time lurker, no hockey right now so on the board to chit chat. If the newcomer (assuming because of my post count) is unwelcome, no problem. Just lmk.

We already see what is happening with Kane as he is getting older and more injury prone or the play drops off. Just like Lucic, Neal in their early 30's. It's not anything new. There is a higher risk signing older players bringing them to the age of 37-38 with a 7-8 yr deal and paying them crazy money.

If McD/Drai want to play together and the goal is to win then concessions will need to be made in my opinion. Making Drai the highest paid player a year from now then the following year make McD the highest paid player is a good way to turn your cap upside down.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Not sure what's up with the insults and not sure where an old nick name came up lol. Add up their points sure, now put McD with those comparables to play with to see if their numbers increase whereas Drai's numbers would decrease without him. Already gave the Hyman example earlier. Played with top players in TO, came here, his numbers increased as McD is a step above other great players.

You believe what you believe, this is a board and think made quite a few reasonable points. Long time lurker, no hockey right now so on the board to chit chat. If the newcomer (assuming because of my post count) is unwelcome, no problem. Just lmk.

We already see what is happening with Kane as he is getting older and more injury prone or the play drops off. Just like Lucic, Neal in their early 30's. It's not anything new. There is a higher risk signing older players bringing them to the age of 37-38 with a 7-8 yr deal and paying them crazy money.

If McD/Drai want to play together and the goal is to win then concessions will need to be made in my opinion. Making Drai the highest paid player a year from now then the following year make McD the highest paid player is a good way to turn your cap upside down.

Stop comparing Drai to average top 6 forwards like Lucic and Neal. They aren’t comparable. Superstars usually remain competitive for a lot longer.

 

[powerserge]

You can't count Neal's buyout and the Brown's overage if you are talking about the year McDavid's deal is up.

As to bad contracts, aside from Nurse who is already factored into the equation which bad contracts do you see the Oilers having in the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons? If anything they have key players on cheap deals.

There are still a lot of unknowns that could impact things. Maybe a guy like Savoie takes off and you have an impact high end forward at $880K.

The Pens had Sergei Plotnikov earning the equivalent of $5.2M for which he delivered them all of 2 assists. Trevor Daley was getting the equivalent of $4.6M. The also had Fleury at the equivalent of $8M sitting on the bench for the playoffs.

Of course Brown and Neal's cap implications apply to next year only. Our prospect pool is not the strength of the team. Was hoping Lavoie would have an impact this year. Pretty hard to look that far ahead but Nuge/Hyms/Kane are getting a little older so it's fair to see their play to drop off a bit.

 

[powerserge]

Stop comparing Drai to average top 6 forwards like Lucic and Neal. They aren’t comparable. Superstars usually remain competitive for a lot longer.

No one can predict when father time catches up. You could see the drop off past few years with our very own Perry and Keith. Some players the drop off starts at 30-32, others can stretch it to 35. The game is faster than ever so that much tougher to keep up. It's not just about being competitive, older players can be more injury prone. Drai is a big strong guy with great hockey sense so I would agree he should stay competitive and durable.

 

[grego]

It you want to say drai isn't that good then first make a list of first line LW or centres that you would do in a flat out trade for drai and not feel ripped off.

Because those are the only comparables

The fact he is willing to play on the second line c to help our depth doesn't make him a lesser player, it means he will do what we want as a team.

1st line LW or c. Put him on the second line. Give him an occasional shift with lower talent fourth liners he won't care and plays great. He is a total team player and is not that easy to replace along with incredible talent.

What drai and mcdavid do together is like Gretzky kurri kind of rare ability to play together.

Yes Hyman and other can do some good stuff with mcdavid but none of them get that kind of give and go, knowing where the other guy is planning to put the puck as we see with those two together.

To act like he is so easy to replace is silly

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Now watch
After all of this, he’ll sign an 10.5M x 8 contract

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Not sure what's up with the insults and not sure where an old nick name came up lol. Add up their points sure, now put McD with those comparables to play with to see if their numbers increase whereas Drai's numbers would decrease without him. Already gave the Hyman example earlier. Played with top players in TO, came here, his numbers increased as McD is a step above other great players.

You believe what you believe, this is a board and think made quite a few reasonable points. Long time lurker, no hockey right now so on the board to chit chat. If the newcomer (assuming because of my post count) is unwelcome, no problem. Just lmk.

We already see what is happening with Kane as he is getting older and more injury prone or the play drops off. Just like Lucic, Neal in their early 30's. It's not anything new. There is a higher risk signing older players bringing them to the age of 37-38 with a 7-8 yr deal and paying them crazy money.

If McD/Drai want to play together and the goal is to win then concessions will need to be made in my opinion. Making Drai the highest paid player a year from now then the following year make McD the highest paid player is a good way to turn your cap upside down.

Lucic, Kane and Neal are not even in the same air as Draisaitl. Elite players such as he typically decline much slower. Leon at 37 will probably be at 65-75 points if not more with a $120M cap, at the same age Neal has been long bought out, Kane has retired and right about when Lucic is getting out of jail.

Draisaitl puts up huge numbers without McDavid at 5v5 without the same quality of linemates. Your basic point has some validity but your comparables are laughable and accentuating your opinion with “there is no other opinion but mine” sets you up for ridicule.

Leon would easily get offered 100m x 7 minimum on the open market. If he comes in at 13 and change that’s at discount. Which is your basic point - he should be at a discount - but to say $11.4 and that’s the definitive opinion is nonsense.

As for being a newbie that has nothing to do with it. We get harassed here endlessly by trolls with no or little post counts who come here just to stir the shit pot. Which is exactly what it appears you’re doing with your opinions stated as facts.

 

[nerevarine]

Wonder when we get an official update on negotations, mid august? gotta think oilers prefer to have this done in summer instead of an all season distraction

 

[McBooya42]

While Drai is better than those players. 6-7M is a sizable difference. That's JT Miller/Reinart/Thompson and another 1st line player

Or a Matthews to a MacKinnon. Which I think Drai is in the company of.

Without McD, yes. We don't know how well Drai would fare without him but we can look at Hyms for a reasonable sample size. His production increased steadily playing with McD compared to Toronto. McD makes everybody better. It's a fair statement. We have the best PP, who drives it? All those sweet passes and plays by McD has boosted everybody's numbers.

Well, pretty much anyone here will say that you're wrong. Funny thing is, once again, that his individual awards and achievements back it up.

 

[McBooya42]

Doubt McD/Drai care about awards anymore. Hall won the MVP also making 6 mil or whatever, now he makes 8, is older and can't seem to stay healthy. I compare Drai on another team to a Forsberg or Thompson. All excellent players. Think Drai's stats are inflated by 20% playing with McD.

You'd be wrong with your comparisons lol, and what's with the constant comparison to Hall? Drai is better than Hall ever was at his best.

As far as the awards part, that was not my point of mentioning it but to point out how good of a player he actually is. How is it that actual players in the league recognize this, but you somehow definitely know better from your couch?

 

[Duke74]

You and powerserge should form your own subforum to share these posts about Drai. Save the rest of us from having to read them. Good lord.

They would fit in well on the mains.

 

[McBooya42]

Now watch
After all of this, he’ll sign an 10.5M x 8 contract

I will speak his name in hushed reverence forever if he does, but I don't think it likely. Not that much of a home discount at least.

 

[Zerotonine]

Not to mention those deals were signed under different (smaller) salary caps and some were younger 2nd contract players

The biggest difference is Draisaitl will most likely fall of the map significantly after possibly year 4 or 5. Like most have said he will be 30 when this new deal kicks in.

 

[brentashton]

The biggest difference is Draisaitl will most likely fall of the map significantly after possibly year 4 or 5. Like most have said he will be 30 when this new deal kicks in.

Still not understanding why this narrative is there. He might just as easily exist as a solid outside scoring threat, like Ovehckin, that grabs 30 a year into his late 30s. Nothing factual exists out there to say he will be washed at 34. The guy has superstar genes. You probably should gamble.

 

[Yuke]

How much is 35 yr old Draisaitl worth. Just curious what some answers will be.

 

[McBooya42]

How much is 35 yr old Draisaitl worth. Just curious what some answers will be.

What do you think the cap would be at that point?

 

[Broberg Speed]

Wonder when we get an official update on negotations, mid august? gotta think oilers prefer to have this done in summer instead of an all season distraction

I do not think this at all.

How much is 35 yr old Draisaitl worth. Just curious what some answers will be.

12.5M

 

[AM]

I see this claim all the time, that he has average speed and that he will soon be slow. I don't see this at all. In fact, I think that the stats back me up on this:

From NHL edge:

Top Speed: 23.30 mph 92 percentile amongst forwards
Speed bursts over 20mph 96 percentile

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

Now maybe we have a different definition of average, but for me if you are in the 96th percentile range that is well enough above average to allow for some regression.

I think there’s good reason to believe drai is a good risk to take.

 

[AM]

I think they may go shorter term with Bouchard to keep his cap hit down a bit. They have deals for Hughes, and Makar as examples. Something like 4 years at $8.5M might work.


Hyman did not really reinvent his game. He is basically playing the same style he did in Toronto and since he came to Edmonton. The success is different, but the style is the same.

Draisaitl with McDavid is a completely different style of player than he was when he came to the Oilers.

Changing their game to gel with the team? Just look to rnh. Maybe he does it a little too much.

 

[TheGingaNinja]

Man, I thought some of these Drai narratives were finally done with. Slow? Product of McDavid? Did I log in to a necro post from 5 years ago or something?

 

[AM]

Stop comparing Drai to average top 6 forwards like Lucic and Neal. They aren’t comparable. Superstars usually remain competitive for a lot longer.

Depends on the player and the injury record.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Man, I thought some of these Drai narratives were finally done with. Slow? Product of McDavid? Did I log in to a necro post from 5 years ago or something?

Lots of creepy sickos crawling out of the woodwork who really don't want to see the Edmonton Oilers win the Stanley Cup.

 

[Yuke]

What do you think the cap would be at that point?

Lets say Today's cap

 

[bobbythebrain]

He has done it twice against second line competition and on McDavid wing.
McDavid ALWAYS gets the best against him.

After listening to all the arguments I'm still at 12 12.5

What part of McDavid wasn't even playing did you misunderstand? So how could Mcd get the top line comp if he was in the press box?