Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Fourier]

I understand your point but taken to its logical conclusion, it would suggest that the NHLPA’s ultimate goal is to have every player earn precisely the same salary, regardless of tenure or stature, such that no one has money taken out of their pocket to pay someone else. I can’t see any universe where they don’t advocate zealously for the stars and veterans to get every penny they can.

It does not say that at all. The NHLPA has no reason to interfere in individual negotiations one way or the other. It does not serve it's members.

Your last point is probably self contradictory. Historically, when money is short because of big dollars for stars one of the main groups of players who typically get hit are older vets in the lower salary range.

 

[westbeast]

Leon essentially reinvented himself to play with McDavid. I honestly don't remember any player doing this to this extent while still retaining the ability to play his natural game at an elite level.

Came in and was drafted to be as a pass first playing making, big centre (ala Thorton and Getzlaf) and developed into one of the best snipers in the league. Incredible how he developed and perfected that one timer out of nowhere.

 

[McDoused]

I think that ability to offer an 8th year is pretty big, and might be the path to keeping the average somewhat down. I don't might paying 14x6, so tag on 2 cheaper years and bring that down that average down in the 12's or so.

The MacK deal is a great comparison and outline imo.
View attachment 887047

Yes, the cap's going up, but I think that's offset by Drai being 3 years older at the start of the deal and it covering less of his prime years.

The only problem with comparing with MacKinnon is that we now know how that the cap is going up. I'm sure they projected that in MacKinnon's contract but hopefully Draisaitl comes in under what everyone thinks. I really do think he will end up signing for less than he could potentially get next year on the open market.

I think one contract to look at that will be critical is Sam Reinhart. They are both the same age. I get that Drai is supposed to be on another level but if Reinhart signs for like 9.5 with Florida I could see that impacting Draisaitl.

The 8th year is huge. I've brought up the math before. Even if a team wanted to pay Draisaitl 15M on the open market, thats 105M total on a 7-year contract. If you take that same amount spread over 8 years its 13.125M. I do think it will be above that (factor in taxes and potential earnings from another team in the 8th year) so maybe 13.5M as fair market with that contract. Its 2M more than what Nylander received but it scares me what people are willing to pay Marner (13+) and Draisaitl is clearly the better player.

 

[rec28]

Or he gets traded, I don't want to see him walk for nothing.

It does not say that at all. The NHLPA has no reason to interfere in individual negotiations one way or the other. It does not serve it's members.

Your last point is probably self contradictory. Historically, when money is short because of big dollars for stars one of the main groups of players who typically get hit are older vets in the lower salary range.

I’m not suggesting interference in individual negotiations, rather a general position of encouraging or even pressuring players as a group to maximize their earning potential during contract negotiations. And, like any collective bargaining environment, the biggest and most senior dogs typically eat first and best. Young and marginal players always get the short straw.

I’m not sure what you mean by “It does not serve its members”. Can you explain?

N/m - read it wrong

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I fully expect him to be the highest paid player in the NHL until Connor's deal is up.

 

[Fourier]

I’m not suggesting interference in individual negotiations, rather a general position of encouraging or even pressuring players as a group to maximize their earning potential during contract negotiations. And, like any collective bargaining environment, the biggest and most senior dogs typically eat first and best. Young and marginal players always get the short straw.

I’m not sure what you mean by “It does not serve its members”. Can you explain?

N/m - read it wrong

A 50-50 revenue sharing agreement is not a standard collective bargaining environment. Generally unions want to get the most they can out of an agreement because the theory is this floats everyone's boat. That is literally not the case when the pot is fixed.

While it is true that young marginal players often take a hit, they are not the only group that is impacted. Historically it has also been other vets that take the brunt of limited resources. Guys who were well paid but are ending their deals on a downside of their careers tend to be hit. This also applies to players being traded when they may not really be happy about it. Look at a guy like Ceci. If he was making $1.2M he'd be fine as a #6 RHD. But because he is making $3.25M on the cap that is not a role that makes sense for a team with fixed resources. So he is probably gone even though I expect he'd very much like to stay. Kane is another guy whose contract will probably see him out of Edmonton before it is up. Campbell will be bought out because of limited cap space.

Every extra dollar a star makes has consequences for others. This could be as simple as a few dollars spread out over the whole PA to the loss of a job for a vet triggered by a need to free up space.

 

[K1900L]

Before handing out the big money, learning about his potential injury would surely be important.

This season did no good to his body. He had a slow start (for whatever reason, maybe even some remnants of the previous playoff-run) and basically had to stand on his head to contribute in order to get this team back into the playoffs, dozens of games, pedal to the metal. He might already had some bruises there which carried over etc.

Then the two series against LA and the Canucks followed. People on here seem to have forgotten that he was the front runner for the Smythe at this point, he was the main contributor carrying this team to the WCF and (probably) injured himself doing so. If he doesn't, there are no McDavid and comeback Cinderella stories, quite the opposite: we would be having totally different discussions right now after failing in the second round in back to back years.

'He is falling off a cliff' my ass. If he wouldn't have gotten (potentially) injured, he would still be ahead of McDavid in points (who people consider to be the the second most talented player of all time already). If healthy, playoff-Draisaitl is the only player in this league who is able to produce like McDavid.

You simply don't trade this for no reason, even if it means risking something.

A healthy Draisaitl is crucial though. And the team should make anything possible to accomplish it (maybe get some depth contribution throughout the season, allowing McDrai to heal up), even if it means leaving hin out of the lineup to start the season.

 

[Oilers88]

disclaimer - if you think this post is BS, I am ok with that.

I have a friend of a good friend who worked with the Oilers analytical group. My good friend is not an exaggerator and I believe what he says. He was told that Oiler analytics do not shed a good light on Leon and they do not want him signed long term. The feeling is that his performance is already falling off a cliff. IMO, this has the potential to be a franchise crippling contract like Huberdeau

I love the guy but you cannot pay for past performance

That doesn't surprise me at all. To be honest, I am terrified of Leon's next contract. I expect the aging curve to hit him harder than McDavid.

Having said that, I think the practical side weighs in here. Keeping Leon is probably the cost of keeping Connor, and that alone makes his next deal worth it. No organization in this league will value keeping their stars for their entire career more than we do. After what Oilers fans been through the last few decades, seeing Leon and Connor commit to play out their careers in Edmonton would be huge. I expect when it really comes down to the wire, the organization will give Leon a blank cheque based on what he means to this City and organization. I hope he's willing to take a reasonable number to win, but either way I'll just be happy to see Connor and Leon play out their days as Oilers.

The optimist in me hopes that even if Leon loses a step, he could still be a point per game player well into his 30's just based on PP performance. I think at some point in his next contract, he becomes a full time winger for Connor. He may not be a driver, but he could still be an elite complementary player. We can still win, but this organization is going to have to find value contracts elsewhere.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Before handing out the big money, learning about his potential injury would surely be important.

This season did no good to his body. He had a slow start (for whatever reason, maybe even some remnants of the previous playoff-run) and basically had to stand on his head to contribute in order to get this team back into the playoffs, dozens of games, pedal to the metal. He might already had some bruises there which carried over etc.

Then the two series against LA and the Canucks followed. People on here seem to have forgotten that he was the front runner for the Smythe at this point, he was the main contributor carrying this team to the WCF and (probably) injured himself doing so. If he doesn't, there are no McDavid and comeback Cinderella stories, quite the opposite: we would be having totally different discussions right now after failing in the second round in back to back years.

'He is falling off a cliff' my ass. If he wouldn't have gotten (potentially) injured, he would still be ahead of McDavid in points (who people consider to be the the second most talented player of all time already). If healthy, playoff-Draisaitl is the only player in this league who is able to produce like McDavid.

You simply don't trade this for no reason, even if it means risking something.

A healthy Draisaitl is crucial though. And the team should make anything possible to accomplish it (maybe get some depth contribution throughout the season, allowing McDrai to heal up), even if it means leaving hin out of the lineup to start the season.

As I said before he was definitely off since day 1.

When it comes to the cup there is so much luck involved. Healthy Drai and we probably win it all. Injuries suck ass in hockey.

Maybe just maybe if he had better line mates he'd be less likely to get hurt. Or maybe I'm just grasping at straws.

 

[Stoneman89]

The thing with Drai (and I'm sure he realizes it), is that he will never come close to the same level of personal success with another team than he's had with McDavid and this one. The only thing that could sway him to go elsewhere would be a thought that we will dismantle the core of this team and remove any chance of getting a cup or 2. Nurse and Campbell and their contracts and play are doing their best to give him that thought.

That doesn't surprise me at all. To be honest, I am terrified of Leon's next contract. I expect the aging curve to hit him harder than McDavid.

Having said that, I think the practical side weighs in here. Keeping Leon is probably the cost of keeping Connor, and that alone makes his next deal worth it. No organization in this league will value keeping their stars for their entire career more than we do. After what Oilers fans been through the last few decades, seeing Leon and Connor commit to play out their careers in Edmonton would be huge. I expect when it really comes down to the wire, the organization will give Leon a blank cheque based on what he means to this City and organization. I hope he's willing to take a reasonable number to win, but either way I'll just be happy to see Connor and Leon play out their days as Oilers.

The optimist in me hopes that even if Leon loses a step, he could still be a point per game player well into his 30's just based on PP performance. I think at some point in his next contract, he becomes a full time winger for Connor. He may not be a driver, but he could still be an elite complementary player. We can still win, but this organization is going to have to find value contracts elsewhere.

Pittsburgh has decided to keep all of their guys till the bitter end, and good for them, but it was more or less after they all had their cups.

 

[Oilers88]

The thing with Drai (and I'm sure he realizes it), is that he will never come close to the same level of personal success with another team than he's had with McDavid and this one. The only thing that could sway him to go elsewhere would be a thought that we will dismantle the core of this team and remove any chance of getting a cup or 2. Nurse and Campbell and their contracts and play are doing their best to give him that thought.


Pittsburgh has decided to keep all of their guys till the bitter end, and good for them, but it was more or less after they all had their cups.

I don't know if I would say that. When Pittsburgh won back to back cups, Malkin was 30/31 years old, and he was in the second and third years of an 8 year deal that took him from age 28-35.

That situation isn't radically different from where we're at with Leon. Leon's next deal will run from 30-37. Malkin's cap bump wasn't nearly as aggressive as Leon's will be, but I don't think it's unfair to draw a comparable between the two situations.

Crosby is much tougher because he signed one of the last 12-year super contracts in 2013-2014. His age won't be that different from Connor's when the contract kicks in, but the length of Crosby's deal helped keep his cap hit the same, which provided massive value. If Connor wants to get 15-16 million, then the two situations are drastically different. If he's willing to take less and do around $13.5, then I think we're actually pretty close to the same contract situation Pittsburgh was in when they won in 2016/2017.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

That doesn't surprise me at all. To be honest, I am terrified of Leon's next contract. I expect the aging curve to hit him harder than McDavid.

Having said that, I think the practical side weighs in here. Keeping Leon is probably the cost of keeping Connor, and that alone makes his next deal worth it. No organization in this league will value keeping their stars for their entire career more than we do. After what Oilers fans been through the last few decades, seeing Leon and Connor commit to play out their careers in Edmonton would be huge. I expect when it really comes down to the wire, the organization will give Leon a blank cheque based on what he means to this City and organization. I hope he's willing to take a reasonable number to win, but either way I'll just be happy to see Connor and Leon play out their days as Oilers.

The optimist in me hopes that even if Leon loses a step, he could still be a point per game player well into his 30's just based on PP performance. I think at some point in his next contract, he becomes a full time winger for Connor. He may not be a driver, but he could still be an elite complementary player. We can still win, but this organization is going to have to find value contracts elsewhere.

I do agree (unpopular opinion here) that Leon should be Connor's winger. If Nuge can't handle 2C then find someone that can be.

There is probably a less likely chance Drai gets Hurt on Davo's wing.

 

[Stoneman89]

I don't know if I would say that. When Pittsburgh won back to back cups, Malkin was 30/31 years old, and he was in the second and third years of an 8 year deal that took him from age 28-35.

View attachment 887119

That situation isn't radically different from where we're at with Leon. Leon's next deal will run from 30-37. Malkin's cap bump wasn't nearly as aggressive as Leon's will be, but I don't think it's unfair to draw a comparable between the two situations.

Crosby is much tougher because he signed one of the last 12-year super contracts in 2013-2014. His age won't be that different from Connor's when the contract kicks in, but the length of Crosby's deal helped keep his cap hit the same, which provided massive value. If Connor wants to get 15-16 million, then the two situations are drastically different. If he's willing to take less and do around $13.5, then I think we're actually pretty close to the same contract situation Pittsburgh was in when they won in 2016/2017.

I guess my point is they have kept all of them the last couple years, instead of moving them and what's left of their contracts for picks/prospects, etc., when it's become increasingly obvious that their best days are behind them and winning again is extremely unlikely.

 

[Oilers88]

I guess my point is they have kept all of them, instead of moving them and what's left of their contracts for picks/prospects, etc.

Understood, I'm focusing on the here and now and whether we can find a way to win with Leon and Connor on their next contracts. If we're lucky enough to keep Connor and Leon and win one or two cups, I don't really care what happens when they're 35/36. If they want to stay, you keep them and rebuild after they retire. If they want to leave, you burn it down and look for your next cornerstone piece. I just want to accomplish something in the here and now.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I do agree (unpopular opinion here) that Leon should be Connor's winger. If Nuge can't handle 2C then find someone that can be.

There is probably a less likely chance Drai gets Hurt on Davo's wing.

As Drai ages he needs more help. Drai can no longer drive huge offense EV with relative punters.

Look at a guy like OV being able to play long because for 15yrs he just stands on his spot, it lights up and he gets magic passes from the whole team feeding him like a Queen bee.

 

[Shanahanigans]

disclaimer - if you think this post is BS, I am ok with that.

I have a friend of a good friend who worked with the Oilers analytical group. My good friend is not an exaggerator and I believe what he says. He was told that Oiler analytics do not shed a good light on Leon and they do not want him signed long term. The feeling is that his performance is already falling off a cliff. IMO, this has the potential to be a franchise crippling contract like Huberdeau

I love the guy but you cannot pay for past performance

The conundrum with Leon is that he was probably a 13 million dollar player in his 22-29 years, but will probably be a $9 million (in today's cap) in his 30-35 years. Nothing against him, but that's how players of his size and style generally age. Already parts of his game look just a touch slower than they did 2 years ago, which is to be expected. I'm confident he can be a great centre into his 30s for this team, but not $13.5 mill worth. Also, they need to get him some legit wingers, enough with the rotating cast of 3rd liners. But then again, that might not be possible with him at 13.5, Mcdavid at 15, Bouch at 10 and Nurse at 9. That Nurse contract is franchise crippling.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

You open up a checkbook and ask Draisaitl for a number. Simple as that. Would like it if he took somewhat of a discount (think around 12 million per year) to help the team retain more talent as he enters his 30s but the reality is we owe him backpay for being the best contract in the league for nearly a decade, so if he wants a fat contract he's earned it.

 

[TheNumber4]

If he wants to be a 14M player. He can be and the Oilers should pay up.

But if he wants to give him and the team a chance to win it all. Him and McD should negotiate an understanding. Market value minus X%. Bouch too should be involved in this planning.

 

[dem]

The conundrum with Leon is that he was probably a 13 million dollar player in his 22-29 years, but will probably be a $9 million (in today's cap) in his 30-35 years. Nothing against him, but that's how players of his size and style generally age. Already parts of his game look just a touch slower than they did 2 years ago, which is to be expected. I'm confident he can be a great centre into his 30s for this team, but not $13.5 mill worth. Also, they need to get him some legit wingers, enough with the rotating cast of 3rd liners. But then again, that might not be possible with him at 13.5, Mcdavid at 15, Bouch at 10 and Nurse at 9. That Nurse contract is franchise crippling.

We are in a world where Bo Horvat is a 8.5 million dollar player, and Matt Barzal is a 9 million dollar player.

Draisaitl is not a 9 million dollar player.

 

[cruisecity]

We are in a world where Bo Horvat is a 8.5 million dollar player, and Matt Barzal is a 9 million dollar player.

Draisaitl is not a 9 million dollar player.

Darnell Nurse is a 9.25 million dollar player. Let's try and not compare our salaries to the most horrendous outliers please -- recipe for disaster.

McDrai are not fools. They have a decision coming up to leave some money on the table like RNH did in order to build a regular Cup contender. If Draisaitl signs the biggest ticket in the NHL at some point this season we'll know where his priorities lay and we will have to re-evaluate our expectations of this club. We can only be so invested in the club winning as its best players are.

If McDavid and Drai both choose to leave nothing on the table for the club to go out and balance the roster -- if Bouchard chooses the same, we will simply not have enough space to make it work. That's on them.

 

[dem]

Darnell Nurse is a 9.25 million dollar player. Let's try and not compare our salaries to the most horrendous outliers please -- recipe for disaster.

McDrai are not fools. They have a decision coming up to leave some money on the table like RNH did in order to build a regular Cup contender. If Draisaitl signs the biggest ticket in the NHL at some point this season we'll know where his priorities lay and we will have to re-evaluate our expectations of this club. We can only be so invested in the club winning as its best players are.

If McDavid and Drai both choose to leave nothing on the table for the club to go out and balance the roster -- if Bouchard chooses the same, we will simply not have enough space to make it work. That's on them.

I wasn't trying to pick outliers at all.

UFA contracts are always ugly.

Here is a list of UFA contracts for fowards signed since 2023

William Nylander	28	RW	TOR	Jan. 8, 2024	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$92,000,000	$11,500,000
Mark Scheifele	31	C	WPG	Oct. 9, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	7	$59,500,000	$8,500,000
Auston Matthews	26	C	TOR	Aug. 23, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	4	$53,000,000	$13,250,000
Sebastian Aho	26	C	CAR	Jul. 26, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$78,000,000	$9,750,000
Anze Kopitar	36	C	LAK	Jul. 6, 2023	35+ (UFA)	✔	1-way	2	$14,000,000	$7,000,000
David Pastrnak	27	RW	BOS	Mar. 2, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$90,000,000	$11,250,000
Dylan Larkin	26	C	DET	Mar. 1, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$69,600,000	$8,700,000
Bo Horvat	28	C	NYI	Feb. 5, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$68,000,000	$8,500,000

Which one of those is the deal Leon should be signing?

I wish Connor and Leon took a haircut... but I highly doubt it will happen.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

At least 15x8

 

[Duke74]

I wasn't trying to pick outliers at all.

UFA contracts are always ugly.

Here is a list of UFA contracts for fowards signed since 2023

William Nylander	28	RW	TOR	Jan. 8, 2024	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$92,000,000	$11,500,000
Mark Scheifele	31	C	WPG	Oct. 9, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	7	$59,500,000	$8,500,000
Auston Matthews	26	C	TOR	Aug. 23, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	4	$53,000,000	$13,250,000
Sebastian Aho	26	C	CAR	Jul. 26, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$78,000,000	$9,750,000
Anze Kopitar	36	C	LAK	Jul. 6, 2023	35+ (UFA)	✔	1-way	2	$14,000,000	$7,000,000
David Pastrnak	27	RW	BOS	Mar. 2, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$90,000,000	$11,250,000
Dylan Larkin	26	C	DET	Mar. 1, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$69,600,000	$8,700,000
Bo Horvat	28	C	NYI	Feb. 5, 2023	Stnd (UFA)	✔	1-way	8	$68,000,000	$8,500,000

Which one of those is the deal Leon should be signing?

I wish Connor and Leon took a haircut... but I highly doubt it will happen.

Pastrnak is probably the best comparable so 11.5 should be fair.

 

[dem]

Pastrnak is probably the best comparable so 11.5 should be fair.

That would be 12 million to be the same percentage under the new cap.

 

[McDrai]

If he wants a cup he will take less than 13