Value of: Leon Draisaitl to your team

[ecemleafs]

This is a big thread....what has prompted these new draisaitl trade discussion posts?

 

[HugginThePost]

I think he'd be your 1C, no?

I'm not too sure. Of course he'd be the best center on our team for sure. But I think that he'd be relegated to the second line because Johnny and Mony are such a good pairing.

I'd love to see him center Chucky and Bennett. I think that would be a one - two punch that would win a shit load of games. And that second line would be a nasty one. More of a 1a / 1b situation. Or to be honest a 1a / 1a situation.

 

[AK87]

To Dallas
Drai

To Edmonton
Klingberg
Jason Robertson
2nd round pick

 

[snipes]

This is a big thread....what has prompted these new draisaitl trade discussion posts?

Summertime and Dr. Drai is a ****ing beast

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Domi plus

For
Leon

Yeah... no. The plus would have to be at least as valuable as Domi.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Gallagher + Danault for Drai

No, and not overly close. Why would we trade Draisaitl for a couple of 2nd liners 2 years from UFA?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

To Dallas
Drai

To Edmonton
Klingberg
Jason Robertson
2nd round pick

If we had any forward depth at all, this is the kind of deal that’s actually worth talking about.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

A pretty rational post. I am also betting on 80 points or so for Leon this year. He is a ppg player and he takes 1st line face offs. He is 23 years old. Not too shabby.

I think he drops off, but I think his drop off is 90 points, not 80.

Yes, he shot at a crazy rate last year, but he also spent significant time with Lucic and Rieder, and neither one could put the puck in the ocean from the beach. If Rieder had put up career average numbers we’re probably looking at another 8-10 assists for Draisaitl.

 

[6ix]

I think Drai is a great hockey player, but I'll be the first to admit that I think Edmonton fans over rate him quite a bit and down play the importance that McDavid plays in his success.

With that said I thought I'd look into your claim of him getting garbage goals. The problem with that is what is a garbage goal? Is it a goal when they are behind? Is it a goal when they are ahead? Things that make you go.....hmmmmmm.

Any way, I did a little research and came up with this:

View attachment 246553

A few things I took away from my research:

• As expected he gets the vast majority of his points with McDavid chipping in
• I was surprised he scored as much away from McDavid as he does
• He didn't show up on the score board in 16 of the teams losses
• He scores at nearly identical rates whether or not they team is tied, winning or losing
• He had a lot less secondary assists than I thought he would have
• He got close to the same amount of points in games they lost as the ones the won

So what can you take away from this? He gets lots of points with McDavid, this is true. But I don't think there is an argument that he gets garbage goals in garbage time. If anything you can see he is a consistent point getter no matter the situation.

Now I'll go shower off, as I'm feeling a little dirty, what with supporting Drai and all. But to help me sleep a little better I will conclude this by saying that he won't repeat last years performance. One of two, or both, things will happen. First he won't shoot at 20+%. Second, at some point in the year he has to start running his own line. One of those cases will drop his point total, if both happen look for an 80 point season.

Here’s a nice write up that also includes some things you said about him shooting 20%.

5 players likely to regress next season

Average shooting % was 10% which would cut his goals to 25 and point total to 80, which puts him exactly where he’s been the last few years, under 30 goals and under ppg.

It was just a complete outlier season. Take away that crazy shooting % he’s down to 80 points. Now take away McDavid cut another 10-15 points centreing his own line that’s puts him in the 65-70 point range which makes sense since I said he’s a 60 point centre away from McDavid.

With some decent wingers maybe he gets in the 75-80 range.

 

[cgf]

Not that Joe would propose these or that they would be enough to tempt the Oilers, but I think the best we could do would be:

Byram + Jost/Kaut/Bowers/Newhook + 1st
or
Kadri + Girard + 1st

 

[snipes]

To Dallas
Drai

To Edmonton
Klingberg
Jason Robertson
2nd round pick

Decent value.

I’d bargain for the 1st but would settle on a 3rd as well as a 2nd if not getting the 1st.

Pretty good job on value.

 

[snipes]

If we had any forward depth at all, this is the kind of deal that’s actually worth talking about.

Yeah that’s actually not a bad deal.

Obviously Drai isn’t going anywhere especially on that great contract but good value.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Not that Joe would propose these or that they would be enough to tempt the Oilers, but I think the best we could do would be:

Byram + Jost/Kaut/Bowers/Newhook + 1st
or
Kadri + Girard + 1st

The best you’d offer isn’t close to good enough in that case.

 

[Notabaguette]

Draisatl and Puuljarvi for Domi, Drouin and Juulsen and 1st

 

[cgf]

The best you’d offer isn’t close to good enough in that case.

I mean I did preface that post with "...or that they would be enough to tempt the Oilers"

Although I feel like you're being hyperbolic about the Byram + your choice of our young forwards/forward prospects + a 1st (or two) offer...at least from a pure value perspective...even if the package is too young to actually appeal to your FO and what they want to accomplish.

 

[snipes]

Draisatl and Puuljarvi for Domi, Drouin and Juulsen and 1st

The phone goes click quick.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I mean I did preface that post with "...or that they would be enough to tempt the Oilers"

Although I feel like you're being hyperbolic about the Byram + your choice of our young forwards/forward prospects + a 1st (or two) offer...at least from a pure value perspective...even if the package is too young to actually appeal to your FO and what they want to accomplish.

I replied to this earlier in the thread - Colorado has a lot of young pieces to offer, but they obviously want to keep the best/closest to NHL ready ones.

From a pure value standpoint, Bouchard+Lavoie+2020 1st and 2021 1st for MacKinnon isn't a bad offer but there's no way you'd consider it. Ditto with any Byram++ or Kadri++ offers for Draisaitl.

 

[blankall]

Or we could fire Chiarelli and continue to build through the draft. These speed up build trades and signings all backfired.

Lol....speed up build trades? The Oilers had so many #1 picks that the NHL had to change the rules to stop them from getting more. They've drafted in the top 10, eleven times since 2007.

They have the best player in the world on their team. A player that many top end UFAs are clamoring to play with.

What exactly is your definition of a proper rebuild? 25 years of top 10 picks?

They just need competent asset management. For any team there comes a point where they must build around their high end talent. The Oilers need to get better at that. Their depth drafting is also horrible. The best players they've pulled outside of the 1st round over the past 10 years or so have been Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, and Oskar Klefbom. They let Gustafsson walk for nothing.

Tearing down to rebuild with McDavid going into his 5th season is absurd.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Draisatl and Puuljarvi for Domi, Drouin and Juulsen and 1st

remove Puljujarvi, replace drouin with Gallagher and maybe Holland pauses his golf round.

 

[Dumais]

Just curious, what kind of deal would Werenski have to resign for, in order to get Drai in a 1 for 1 deal?

 

[snipes]

Just curious, what kind of deal would Werenski have to resign for, in order to get Drai in a 1 for 1 deal?

It’d have to be Jones.

Jones for Drai one for one is really equivalent value IMO.

I think most CBJ and EDM fans would agree on that even they wouldn’t make the trade. The value is really close.

 

[Del Preston]

Lol....speed up build trades? The Oilers had so many #1 picks that the NHL had to change the rules to stop them from getting more. They've drafted in the top 10, eleven times since 2007.

They have the best player in the world on their team. A player that many top end UFAs are clamoring to play with.

What exactly is your definition of a proper rebuild? 25 years of top 10 picks?

They just need competent asset management. For any team there comes a point where they must build around their high end talent. The Oilers need to get better at that. Their depth drafting is also horrible. The best players they've pulled outside of the 1st round over the past 10 years or so have been Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, and Oskar Klefbom. They let Gustafsson walk for nothing.

Tearing down to rebuild with McDavid going into his 5th season is absurd.

He didn't say anything about rebuilding.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Just curious, what kind of deal would Werenski have to resign for, in order to get Drai in a 1 for 1 deal?

12 years at league minimum. no but actually. Extremely long term and dirt cheap.

We're stacked at LHD with Klefbom/Nurse/Jones/Samorukov/Broberg/Lagesson in the fold long term and Werenski, while good, is nowhere near the player Leon is. 1 for 1 just won't happen, nor is Werenski a particularly good starting point.

 

[joe dirte]

You don't really want to know what I think it would take to actually get Edmonton listening. That wouldn't do it.

You - and everyone else - wants to make sure they're still a better team after trading for Draisaitl and I don't think that has any basis in reality. We don't want to move him. We have no reason to move him.

While your package has some good assets in it, it's hardly the Lindros type deal I think it would take. Holland doesn't make big trades and he definitely doesn't sell off star players in their primes for lesser pieces.

I haven't suggested a package because I don't think one exists at this time. Even a young top pairing defenceman like Jones or McAvoy only creates a monster hole in our forwards with no clear way of filling it, and I think Draisaitl is better than either guy.

But, if you're going to push the issue: Mantha, AA, Veleno, 2020 1st (1st overall protected) and your choice of Cholowski or Hronek for Draisaitl and Kris Russell.

So why bump the thread if youre gonna sit there and shoot down every package and then name a package that you already know no one will come remotely close to offering?

Its trolling. What youve done is incite arguments and nothing more. You get so worked up when people point out how terrible draisaitl is when hes not stapled to mcdavid, but youre pushing people to bring up the facts.

 

[cgf]

I replied to this earlier in the thread - Colorado has a lot of young pieces to offer, but they obviously want to keep the best/closest to NHL ready ones.

From a pure value standpoint, Bouchard+Lavoie+2020 1st and 2021 1st for MacKinnon isn't a bad offer but there's no way you'd consider it. Ditto with any Byram++ or Kadri++ offers for Draisaitl.

? I literally just offered the best/closest to NHL ready young pieces we have. The only other 3 we have who could move the needle in Drae discussion would be 1-for-1s -- which wouldn't make sense for either team given the strong chemistry that already exists between the superstars on our teams -- or MacK, whom you'd have to add for; which would make even less sense for either side to do.

I get that I'm only suggesting "fair value" and that Edmonton has no reason to trade Drae for "fair value", but you're underselling what I've thrown out there if you don't think it's even close to fair value; are comparing it to offering Bouchard++ for MacK; or are describing any trade involving Samwise as the centerpiece, as Kadri++

But oh well, no point arguing about it.