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News Article: Lebreton

Micklebot said:
Well, yes and no. They aren't getting financial statements, but they are reaching out to the teams and getting some info (whatever they are willing to share) direct from the source. They also reach out to sports bankers and media consultants who may have some info not in the public realm.

There's certainly some guesswork but it's an educated guess.
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I would say it's a very educated guess.
 
DueDiligence said:
I would say it's a very educated guess.
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It is a very educated guess. Mike Ozanian has been very open about the methodology they use and he himself has the academic credentials to conduct such assessments

You could say he does his due diligence
 
JD1 said:
It is a very educated guess. Mike Ozanian has been very open about the methodology they use and he himself has the academic credentials to conduct such assessments

You could say he does his due diligence
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exactly!
 
AchtzehnBaby said:
Doubtful the Estate is not even settled yet.
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I would think the settlement of the estate and the sale of the team are interrelated. It's unimaginable to believe that Melnyk would expect his daughters to run the team (without a proper advocate no less). Like @DaveMatthew said, there would be a public address if the Melnyk family was going to continue to own 'majority' stake of the team.

A sale of the majority stake of the team + allocation of those funds are most likely outlined in the estate; and will be settled concurrently.
 
JD1 said:
It is a very educated guess. Mike Ozanian has been very open about the methodology they use and he himself has the academic credentials to conduct such assessments

You could say he does his due diligence
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According to Forbes these are their sources:

The information used to compile our valuations primarily came from the teams, sports bankers, media consultants and public documents, like arena lease agreements and bond documents.

The information from the teams I would guess would be ticket prices off their websites and attendance figures provided. Teams aren't going to give any outsider a real view of their financials.

Sports bankers? I doubt they would be the actual bankers used by teams who would not volunteer financial information from their clients. Maybe some bankers they know who could guess/crunch numbers for them.

Media consultants? Who the hell are these people? They have guys like Garrioch spilling their guts to Forbes?

Public documents? Most teams wouldn't have public lease agreements. Ottawa wouldn't because the building isn't publicly owned. It would be for teams like Florida and Arizona.

They're just guessing. If you can find a more detailed breakdown of their methodology, I'd be interested to see it.

Assen na yo.
 
Tranquilo Naito said:
According to Forbes these are their sources:

The information used to compile our valuations primarily came from the teams, sports bankers, media consultants and public documents, like arena lease agreements and bond documents.

The information from the teams I would guess would be ticket prices off their websites and attendance figures provided. Teams aren't going to give any outsider a real view of their financials.

Sports bankers? I doubt they would be the actual bankers used by teams who would not volunteer financial information from their clients. Maybe some bankers they know who could guess/crunch numbers for them.

Media consultants? Who the hell are these people? They have guys like Garrioch spilling their guts to Forbes?

Public documents? Most teams wouldn't have public lease agreements. Ottawa wouldn't because the building isn't publicly owned. It would be for teams like Florida and Arizona.

They're just guessing. If you can find a more detailed breakdown of their methodology, I'd be interested to see it.

Assen na yo.
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Years back I did see a more detailed description of the methodology and I looked for it yesterday but couldn't find it

But start at the top. Forbes is a credible business publication. Ozanian has an MBA an is an assistant editor of the publication. He's been doing this for years.

Assuming you had the credentials to do so, the question really is whether or not there's enough information to take a decent stab at it if it was your full time job to do so. Tv contracts? Ticket prices? Parking? Concessions? Merchandise? Yes, yes, yes, yes and yes. You can find all that information. Can you calculate to the penny? No. Can you build financial estimating methodologies with a range of probabilities? Yes.

I know I could do so if someone was willing to pay me a full time gig to do it. And I'd get better at it as I went along. Ozanian has been doing this for years
 
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My big issue with Forbes and their valuations and estimates is that they rely too much on taking things at face value. There isn't much critical work going on because someone can just say "no" if they try to investigate and verify. This came to a head when Wilbur Ross was appointed by the Trump administration and had to disclose his fortune and it turned out Forbes was way off and had overestimated his fortune. They tried to shift blame back to Wilbur Ross and his camp as a defense. Ever since I've always been extremely skeptical of attempts to measure valuation, revenues of nonpublic companies, etc..

They're fun lists and thought experiments but how accurate are they really? The one example we can verify they were off by a factor of 2-3x.
 
AchtzehnBaby said:
I like this plan - huge entertainment district

www.coyotesintempe.com

Coyotes in Tempe

www.coyotesintempe.com www.coyotesintempe.com
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That's insane. Not sure what has already been built out of all that, but to do the same thing in Ottawa you'd probably have to flatten half the downtown core (not necessarily a bad thing, but ya know...).

It would be incredible for the city to have a large entertainment area like that. I imagine Rideau Centre, the conference centre, NAC, Chateau Laurier, Sparks St, and then a Sens arena taking up the SW corner, along with a few fill-in destination buildings in between creating a major hub in the city. Totally revitalize downtown. But I doubt it would ever happen.
 
Nac Mac Feegle said:
That's insane. Not sure what has already been built out of all that, but to do the same thing in Ottawa you'd probably have to flatten half the downtown core (not necessarily a bad thing, but ya know...).

It would be incredible for the city to have a large entertainment area like that. I imagine Rideau Centre, the conference centre, NAC, Chateau Laurier, Sparks St, and then a Sens arena taking up the SW corner, along with a few fill-in destination buildings in between creating a major hub in the city. Totally revitalize downtown. But I doubt it would ever happen.
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How different is it than the original Lebreton proposals?

Rendezvous had:
- a 17-18k arena
- an abilities center (dual rink sports and recreation community center)
- Public Library (option)
- boardwalk with Shops and cafes lining the aqueduct
- 800 hotel rooms
- 4400 residential units
- 8000 underground parking spots (500 for the arena, 4400 dedicated to residential units)
- 800,000 sq ft of retail (likely part of this was the aqueduct stuff)
- a similar amount of office space (couldn't find a number, that how it was characterized by Bird)

Obviously breaking up the Lebreton makes this type of big vision much tougher, but it seems like the space is there.
 
Micklebot said:
How different is it than the original Lebreton proposals?

Rendezvous had:
- a 17-18k arena
- an abilities center (dual rink sports and recreation community center)
- Public Library (option)
- boardwalk with Shops and cafes lining the aqueduct
- 800 hotel rooms
- 4400 residential units
- 8000 underground parking spots (500 for the arena, 4400 dedicated to residential units)
- 800,000 sq ft of retail (likely part of this was the aqueduct stuff)
- a similar amount of office space (couldn't find a number, that how it was characterized by Bird)

Obviously breaking up the Lebreton makes this type of big vision much tougher, but it seems like the space is there.
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Get rid of the library and build a sports bar! :)
 
Micklebot said:
How different is it than the original Lebreton proposals?

Rendezvous had:
- a 17-18k arena
- an abilities center (dual rink sports and recreation community center)
- Public Library (option)
- boardwalk with Shops and cafes lining the aqueduct
- 800 hotel rooms
- 4400 residential units
- 8000 underground parking spots (500 for the arena, 4400 dedicated to residential units)
- 800,000 sq ft of retail (likely part of this was the aqueduct stuff)
- a similar amount of office space (couldn't find a number, that how it was characterized by Bird)

Obviously breaking up the Lebreton makes this type of big vision much tougher, but it seems like the space is there.
Click to expand...

Is Lebreton big enough for all of that? That video rendering of the new Arizona complex looks massive.
 
Nac Mac Feegle said:
Is Lebreton big enough for all of that? That video rendering of the new Arizona complex looks massive.
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It's 29 hectares, or roughly 70 acres if that makes more sense. The problem is now they've divided into parcels so a whole bunch of 2-6 acre chunks or something.
 
That's the only way a new arena will work , even if is not as grand as the Arizona plan it could still be achieved.
 
Day Man said:
Hey, Does anyone know when we should expect the next update on Lebreton?
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The NCC is pleased to have received multiple responses to its request for expressions of interest (REI) for major attractions at two sites at LeBreton Flats. Over the coming months, the NCC will work to finalize its evaluation and due diligence process, as well as advance negotiations with potential proponents. Following the signing of a letter of intent with the preferred proponent(s) and a Board of Directors update in June, the NCC will work to negotiate the lease, a process that could take until the end of 2022.
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Bileur said:
Just put a sports bar section in the library.

It worked fine for smoking and non smoking sections in restaurants back in the day.
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Have a grand gallery where big name bands play & numerous other bars throughout the place with lesser artists playing. Built something into the back of the place overlooking the ottawa river, have cruise ships with dinner docking up to the place going back & forth from Gatineau. Lots could be done if someone had the money to do it. They could turn it into the best venue in Ottawa. They could do something similar at Lebreton with an arena, but that will take billions too. Build both.
 
JD1 said:
Years back I did see a more detailed description of the methodology and I looked for it yesterday but couldn't find it

But start at the top. Forbes is a credible business publication. Ozanian has an MBA an is an assistant editor of the publication. He's been doing this for years.

Assuming you had the credentials to do so, the question really is whether or not there's enough information to take a decent stab at it if it was your full time job to do so. Tv contracts? Ticket prices? Parking? Concessions? Merchandise? Yes, yes, yes, yes and yes. You can find all that information. Can you calculate to the penny? No. Can you build financial estimating methodologies with a range of probabilities? Yes.

I know I could do so if someone was willing to pay me a full time gig to do it. And I'd get better at it as I went along. Ozanian has been doing this for years
Click to expand...
Forbes is massively overrated for these things. It’s a novelty list. Billionaires have routinely lied to them with respect to their wealth and they continue to publish those lists.
As long as none of its public it’s just a game.
 
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