News Article: Lebreton...Interesting...NCC - PART 2

[bert]

@Micklebot to include you

I've worked on business cases that involve >500M in investment. There's lots of variables. Sure, I didn't include various revenue types in a 300 word post, I also didn't include revenue losses by moving rinks. The parking loss is huge.

I live in Orleans. My friends are all Sens fans. Driving to Kanata is a pita. But it's not really a deterrent in anyway for anyone I know here that can afford to go to games. And it's not the same as going to Montreal. It's not close. Minus winter weather I can leave at 630 and be in my seat at 730 with a beer. Mind you I live in the west end of Orleans so time wise it'd be worse for those that live in the Cumberland side of Orleans

It's a hard business case to make and not one that is without risk. I recall Melnyk saying about the original LeBreton deal that there were various assumptions and "if we're wrong, we're really wrong" I've said for years that I couldn't make a business case on the original LeBreton deal. I clearly didn't have access to all of the data so admittedly there's things you cannot see, but I'm also one with a resume that could have seen me engaged on such a business case.

It's not a slam dunk. It's possible. It's also not possible.

As a fan, I get it and I'd like the downtown rink. I'd be ecstatic. But an awful lot has to go right for it to eventually happen and imo it won't until enough public sector money comes to the table.

For me its not hard to get to the current arena I live pretty close compared most people. It really wont be any different for a downtown location for me in terms of travel. So this is not a personal thing. I dont live in Kanata but in the west end. I have also been fortunate enough to attend major league sporting events all over north america. Atleast 30 different venues from sport to sport. We have undoubtedly the worst situation I have ever experienced. Every other venue at the very least had walking distance amenities. To think that the game day experience is that bad and for the team to draw as well as it has tells me there is tremendous upside. That along with changing demographics in this city, the newer generation is less frugal and there is more private creeping into the market. Thats where were going to see the largest increase is in corporate tickets. Because of the overall experience its something that the average person will want to do not just hockey fans.

Right now the current arena needs massive renovations to accomodate big acts and everything that goes with them. To go along with a new roof. The new arena isnt just for hockey its going to attract way more events in general.

A new arena also adds to value of the franchise which @Micklebot kindly pointed out. Tax breaks etc. Its a slam dunk in every possible way not only immediately but for the health of the franchise for the long term.

 

[Micklebot]

I've worked on business cases that involve >500M in investment. There's lots of variables. Sure, I didn't include various revenue types in a 300 word post, I also didn't include revenue losses by moving rinks. The parking loss is huge.

Yeah, I think there's a lot of factors and certainly if the cards don't fall in your favour on those variables, things can go south fast when 500+m is on the line.

The arena will eventually need to be replaced, they always do. So, thinking long term, is it better to act now, or take the risk that the opportunities to build in an ideal location will still be there when you no longer have the luxury of time on your side.

I'm happy it's not my neck on the line making this decision, but I do think there's an opportunity to come away with some profit too, time will tell I guess.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Yeah, I think there's a lot of factors and certainly if the cards don't fall in your favour on those variables, things can go south fast when 500+m is on the line.

The arena will eventually need to be replaced, they always do. So, thinking long term, is it better to act now, or take the risk that the opportunities to build in an ideal location will still be there when you no longer have the luxury of time on your side.

I'm happy it's not my neck on the line making this decision, but I do think there's an opportunity to come away with some profit too, time will tell I guess.

In the long run, it might make more sense to do a (throwing out a random number) $200M refurb of the existing building and push the city + province to speed up the LRT timeline. Why spend $1B in public and private money on a new building when you can refurb the current building for much much less and have the city and province spend that money on infrastructure to solve the single largest issue facing the current building - transit in and out. It kicks the can down the road by 15-20 years and, at that point, who knows where things are at?

Also, looking at interest rates and construction costs, it might not be the best time right now to break ground on such a large scale project. They're gonna wait a couple of years while inflationary pressure recedes a bit and to access financing at more palatable rates. At that point who knows what they decide. Very complex decision. Location becomes less of a factor too if you have reliable rapid mass transit. They own a ton of land around the arena too, maybe they look at developing that land for restaurants, hotels, bars, condos, etc.?

 

[Relapsing]

In the long run, it might make more sense to do a (throwing out a random number) $200M refurb of the existing building and push the city + province to speed up the LRT timeline. Why spend $1B in public and private money on a new building when you can refurb the current building for much much less and have the city and province spend that money on infrastructure to solve the single largest issue facing the current building - transit in and out. It kicks the can down the road by 15-20 years and, at that point, who knows where things are at?

Also, looking at interest rates and construction costs, it might not be the best time right now to break ground on such a large scale project. They're gonna wait a couple of years while inflationary pressure recedes a bit and to access financing at more palatable rates. At that point who knows what they decide. Very complex decision. Location becomes less of a factor too if you have reliable rapid mass transit. They own a ton of land around the arena too, maybe they look at developing that land for restaurants, hotels, bars, condos, etc.?

The transit goal shouldn't be to utilize a method that primarily travels in one direction.

Ideally, the rink is at the centre of a number of transit paths - north, south, east and west. This also broadens the ability for people to attend games by providing more flexibility.

The current location will never accommodate this. Any transit going out there will still be bottlenecked until riders start hitting transfer stations. As it stands now, you can drive, take a crowded bus for way too long, or an expensive uber/taxi. Expecting people to regularly suffer an hour plus commute home after a game on a work night has never been a good situation for fans.

Butts in seats has to be a priority. I doubt this can be meaningfully improved in any reasonable timeframe if the rink stays where it is.

Not to mention the CTC doesn't seem to have 15-20 years ahead of it. So something has to give.

 

[slamigo]

Yeah, I think there's a lot of factors and certainly if the cards don't fall in your favour on those variables, things can go south fast when 500+m is on the line.

The arena will eventually need to be replaced, they always do. So, thinking long term, is it better to act now, or take the risk that the opportunities to build in an ideal location will still be there when you no longer have the luxury of time on your side.

I'm happy it's not my neck on the line making this decision, but I do think there's an opportunity to come away with some profit too, time will tell I guess.

Didn't the team also float the idea of building a new arena next to the CTC?

 

[Masked]

Idk about that.

One of the most cited reasons for a lack of business investment in Canada is the shitty capital cost allowance treatment

Study after study points to lower productivity of labour in this country. Why? Because businesses invest their capital elsewhere because they get better CCA treatment

I'm not an accountant nor an expert on CCA and you could be correct about Canada's CCA being subpar compared to other countries. But is the version of CCA in other countries so good that the owner of the Senators will find their capital is better served in another country than utilizing it for a new arena, which can receive CCA along with the other financial advantages for a new arena?

Likewise, I don't what sort of renovations would be eligible for CCA. That could factor whether to build new or just renovate.

Assen na yo!

 

[Micklebot]

In the long run, it might make more sense to do a (throwing out a random number) $200M refurb of the existing building and push the city + province to speed up the LRT timeline. Why spend $1B in public and private money on a new building when you can refurb the current building for much much less and have the city and province spend that money on infrastructure to solve the single largest issue facing the current building - transit in and out. It kicks the can down the road by 15-20 years and, at that point, who knows where things are at?

Also, looking at interest rates and construction costs, it might not be the best time right now to break ground on such a large scale project. They're gonna wait a couple of years while inflationary pressure recedes a bit and to access financing at more palatable rates. At that point who knows what they decide. Very complex decision. Location becomes less of a factor too if you have reliable rapid mass transit. They own a ton of land around the arena too, maybe they look at developing that land for restaurants, hotels, bars, condos, etc.?

I don't see them breaking ground for at least a couple years, so I'm not sure the current interest rates are an issue. Also, while the rates seem crazy in todays context coming off a decade of historically low interest rates (not to mention the bonkers lows during the pandemic) they aren't that bad relative to historical norms. I'm not sure how much better you can really expect them to get, and someone with more knowledge of financing projects like this can likely confirm, but I suspect they'd use variable rates.

LRT extension doesn't really solve the issue, it improves it, but you're still moving 18k mostly in one direction, a central location splits that into 3 directions, and reduces the travel required for 2/3rd or more of your potential clients.

If hotels, restaurants, bars and condos were going to be developed around the current arena, I imagine it would have happened by now.

Idk, Melnyk was looking to move downtown, he may have pulled the chute the first go at it, but in the end, he continued to explore it. We just had a bidding process with 3 or 4 new potential owners all saying they wanted to be a part of a downtown build too, I imagine all these guys have already put a lot of thought into it, and while the deal still has to make financial sense, I think there's a darn good reason why everyone involved with being or potentially becoming part of sens ownership seems to be keen on a move downtown.

 

[Micklebot]

Didn't the team also float the idea of building a new arena next to the CTC?

Yeah that rings a bell, though I think it was perhaps an attempt to gain some leverage

 

[ColinM]

the bottom line is, when it comes time to retrofit or relocate… which has the greater ROI in the long term?

The devil of course is in the details such as who pays for what and what infrastructure will exist in the Ottawa area from 2030 to 2060. I understand my viewpoint about having the arena in Kanata is the minority viewpoint, but the location is defensible.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The devil of course is in the details such as who pays for what and what infrastructure will exist in the Ottawa area from 2030 to 2060. I understand my viewpoint about having the arena in Kanata is the minority viewpoint, but the location is defensible.

But, the CTC is approximately 29 Kms from the center of the of the Marketplace (Ottawa/Gatineau)… it is nearing the end of it’t life span, and logic dictates relocation.

 

[BankStreetParade]

The transit goal shouldn't be to utilize a method that primarily travels in one direction.

Ideally, the rink is at the centre of a number of transit paths - north, south, east and west. This also broadens the ability for people to attend games by providing more flexibility.

The current location will never accommodate this. Any transit going out there will still be bottlenecked until riders start hitting transfer stations. As it stands now, you can drive, take a crowded bus for way too long, or an expensive uber/taxi. Expecting people to regularly suffer an hour plus commute home after a game on a work night has never been a good situation for fans.

Butts in seats has to be a priority. I doubt this can be meaningfully improved in any reasonable timeframe if the rink stays where it is.

Not to mention the CTC doesn't seem to have 15-20 years ahead of it. So something has to give.

You don't need to replace all vehicular travel with mass transit to alleviate bottlenecks and commutes back home before and after the game. Even if you have a third to half of your attendance taking rapid mass transit and the rest driving, you'd removed enough pressure to ease congestion and get people moving more quickly. The fact is, anyone coming from the west end is driving to the game. The LRT line won't make an ounce of difference to them. And I bet that group forms a fairly large contingency of regular attendees.

I don't see them breaking ground for at least a couple years, so I'm not sure the current interest rates are an issue. Also, while the rates seem crazy in todays context coming off a decade of historically low interest rates (not to mention the bonkers lows during the pandemic) they aren't that bad relative to historical norms. I'm not sure how much better you can really expect them to get, and someone with more knowledge of financing projects like this can likely confirm, but I suspect they'd use variable rates.

LRT extension doesn't really solve the issue, it improves it, but you're still moving 18k mostly in one direction, a central location splits that into 3 directions, and reduces the travel required for 2/3rd or more of your potential clients.

If hotels, restaurants, bars and condos were going to be developed around the current arena, I imagine it would have happened by now.

Idk, Melnyk was looking to move downtown, he may have pulled the chute the first go at it, but in the end, he continued to explore it. We just had a bidding process with 3 or 4 new potential owners all saying they wanted to be a part of a downtown build too, I imagine all these guys have already put a lot of thought into it, and while the deal still has to make financial sense, I think there's a darn good reason why everyone involved with being or potentially becoming part of sens ownership seems to be keen on a move downtown.

You don't need everyone attending the games to be on LRT. Anyone who's going to the CTC that lives in the west end won't be taking the LRT anyway. Ideally, you get 6k-9k taking LRT and the rest in cars.

The broader question is about the concept of conserving capital by doing a moderately expensive refurb and relying on provincially funded mass transit over a significant capital expense to do a new arena build.

An arena downtown won't have shovels in the ground before 2025 and won't be open before late 2027 early 2028, at the earliest. That's 5 years before a new arena is even feasibly a possibility. They should have the entire east-west LRT corridor built by then and hopefully running regularly. It's hard to predict what happens 5 years from now but this guy just leveraged himself to the tune of nearly $1B to buy the team. He might not be all that interested in another $1B to redevelop an area in downtown Ottawa to build an arena. Now, if the city and province decide they're going to be unexpectedly generous in their contributions that could certainly change things. But he could potentially get another 15 years out of the CTC with a solid refurb and rapid transit could alleviate a part of the congestion that will make it easier to arrive at and leave from the arena.

 

[JD1]

For me its not hard to get to the current arena I live pretty close compared most people. It really wont be any different for a downtown location for me in terms of travel. So this is not a personal thing. I dont live in Kanata but in the west end. I have also been fortunate enough to attend major league sporting events all over north america. Atleast 30 different venues from sport to sport. We have undoubtedly the worst situation I have ever experienced. Every other venue at the very least had walking distance amenities. To think that the game day experience is that bad and for the team to draw as well as it has tells me there is tremendous upside. That along with changing demographics in this city, the newer generation is less frugal and there is more private creeping into the market. Thats where were going to see the largest increase is in corporate tickets. Because of the overall experience its something that the average person will want to do not just hockey fans.

Right now the current arena needs massive renovations to accomodate big acts and everything that goes with them. To go along with a new roof. The new arena isnt just for hockey its going to attract way more events in general.

A new arena also adds to value of the franchise which @Micklebot kindly pointed out. Tax breaks etc. Its a slam dunk in every possible way not only immediately but for the health of the franchise for the long term.

Bert I 100% agree with you on your points about game day experience and it being crappy compared to pretty much all other facilities

As much as I agree with that view, there's still the matter of making the numbers make sense.

Andlauer will invest if the numbers add up. Not before. Maybe they don't today but due in 10 years.

We'll see how it plays out.

 

[JD1]

Yeah that rings a bell, though I think it was perhaps an attempt to gain some leverage

That idea has definitely been floated.

I don't know how that's achievable though because you'd chew up available parking while building the new rink and you can't get there without driving

 

[Relapsing]

You don't need to replace all vehicular travel with mass transit to alleviate bottlenecks and commutes back home before and after the game. Even if you have a third to half of your attendance taking rapid mass transit and the rest driving, you'd removed enough pressure to ease congestion and get people moving more quickly. The fact is, anyone coming from the west end is driving to the game. The LRT line won't make an ounce of difference to them. And I bet that group forms a fairly large contingency of regular attendees.

You don't need everyone attending the games to be on LRT. Anyone who's going to the CTC that lives in the west end won't be taking the LRT anyway. Ideally, you get 6k-9k taking LRT and the rest in cars.

The broader question is about the concept of conserving capital by doing a moderately expensive refurb and relying on provincially funded mass transit over a significant capital expense to do a new arena build.

An arena downtown won't have shovels in the ground before 2025 and won't be open before late 2027 early 2028, at the earliest. That's 5 years before a new arena is even feasibly a possibility. They should have the entire east-west LRT corridor built by then and hopefully running regularly. It's hard to predict what happens 5 years from now but this guy just leveraged himself to the tune of nearly $1B to buy the team. He might not be all that interested in another $1B to redevelop an area in downtown Ottawa to build an arena. Now, if the city and province decide they're going to be unexpectedly generous in their contributions that could certainly change things. But he could potentially get another 15 years out of the CTC with a solid refurb and rapid transit could alleviate a part of the congestion that will make it easier to arrive at and leave from the arena.

That's like, 6 to 9k people using transit. Peak capacity on the LRT is around 10k per hour. An articulated OC transpo bus has a stated capacity of 110 riders.

Facilitate multi directional travel and you could significantly reduce this loading at peak. It's pretty straightforward.

People will use transit if it furnishes them with easier access to the arena. The current bus experience is abysmal, the driving experience sucks, and no one has any other viable option.

Plopping a new arena next to, or integrating it with, an existing LRT station had to be a priority for the city for the many reasons already cited.

 

[Micklebot]

You don't need everyone attending the games to be on LRT. Anyone who's going to the CTC that lives in the west end won't be taking the LRT anyway. Ideally, you get 6k-9k taking LRT and the rest in cars.

Sure, but you're still moving 9k on LTIR in one direction. as opposed to say 6k east, 6 k west and 4 k south from a DT arena. You also have all 9 k at one station instead of divided across a couple stations.

The broader question is about the concept of conserving capital by doing a moderately expensive refurb and relying on provincially funded mass transit over a significant capital expense to do a new arena build.

An arena downtown won't have shovels in the ground before 2025 and won't be open before late 2027 early 2028, at the earliest. That's 5 years before a new arena is even feasibly a possibility. They should have the entire east-west LRT corridor built by then and hopefully running regularly. It's hard to predict what happens 5 years from now but this guy just leveraged himself to the tune of nearly $1B to buy the team. He might not be all that interested in another $1B to redevelop an area in downtown Ottawa to build an arena. Now, if the city and province decide they're going to be unexpectedly generous in their contributions that could certainly change things. But he could potentially get another 15 years out of the CTC with a solid refurb and rapid transit could alleviate a part of the congestion that will make it easier to arrive at and leave from the arena.

The issue is eventually a new arena will be needed, we can kick the can down the road, but run the risk of seeing the current options evaporate, and nothing would be worse than having to build a 1 billion dollar arena (adjusted for inflation) right next to the current one because other development has eaten up the downtown options in 15 years.

 

[Relapsing]

Bert I 100% agree with you on your points about game day experience and it being crappy compared to pretty much all other facilities

As much as I agree with that view, there's still the matter of making the numbers make sense.

Andlauer will invest if the numbers add up. Not before. Maybe they don't today but due in 10 years.

We'll see how it plays out.

I don't have a ton of knowledge in this field right now, but material and labour cost probably aren't going to flatten or go down over that time period, right?

Opportunity cost is surely a factor here?

The city is also not going to stop development. We're already facing limited options for a downtown rink. It's not likely to improve over time either.

Sure, but you're still moving 9k on LTIR in one direction. as opposed to say 6k east, 6 k west and 4 k south from a DT arena. You also have all 9 k at one station instead of divided across a couple stations.


The issue is eventually a new arena will be needed, we can kick the can down the road, but run the risk of seeing the current options evaporate, and nothing would be worse than having to build a 1 billion dollar arena (adjusted for inflation) right next to the current one because other development has eaten up the downtown options in 15 years.

I swear I didn't see your reply while making mine!

 

[BankStreetParade]

That's like, 6 to 9k people using transit. Peak capacity on the LRT is around 10k per hour. An articulated OC transpo bus has a stated capacity of 110 riders.

Facilitate multi directional travel and you could significantly reduce this loading at peak. It's pretty straightforward.

People will use transit if it furnishes them with easier access to the arena. The current bus experience is abysmal, the driving experience sucks, and no one has any other viable option.

Plopping a new arena next to, or integrating it with, an existing LRT station had to be a priority for the city for the many reasons already cited.

You seem to be agreeing with the point I'm making while simultaneously believing that you're not. Let's say you only need 6k people to take LRT into and out of the game. This is well below the stated peak capacity of 10k. Let's assume 2 people per car, for the sake of easier math, that drive to the game and that currently 18k people drive to every game (I know those aren't the numbers but it's easier to work with absolute numbers). 6k people taking transit reduces the number of cars by at least 33%. That eases congestion in a significant way, makes the driving experience a lot better and adds a much improved transit option for those who prefer that mode of transportation. We're addressing the current issues in a pretty significant way without considering a move.

I'm just saying, if the math makes sense on a less costly refurb of the CTC that extends its life by 10-15 years and we can address some of the significant issues of arriving to and leaving from the game through mass transit, then it seems like the choice to build a new arena downtown is not as black and white as previously believed. I don't know if they will kick the can down the road but there's an alternative to consider now.

 

[Golden_Jet]

For reference, the following table was composed of attendance information from Ottawa Senators home attendance 2022 | Statista, and yearly capacity from Canadian Tire Centre - Wikipedia. Arena capacity % my calculation

Season	Total attendance	Average attendance	Arena Capacity	Arena Capacity %
2005/06	798,453	19,474	19,153	102%
2006/07	794,271	19,372	19,153	101%
2007/08	812,665	19,821	19,153	103%
2008/09	776,947	18,949	19,153	99%
2009/10	749,061	18,269	19,153	95%
2010/11	753,525	18,378	19,153	96%
2011/12	793,612	19,356	19,153	101%
2012/13*	465,801	19,408	19,153	101%
2013/14	742,468	18,108	19,153	95%
2014/15	748,112	18,246	19,153	95%
2015/16	741,472	18,084	19,153	94%
2016/17	686,534	16,744	19,153	87%
2017/18	648,996	15,829	17,373	91%
2018/19	596,684	14,553	18,655	78%
2019/20	466,876	12,618	18,655	68%
2021/22	375,368	10145*	18,655	54%

*Data corrected to reflect Hockey DB avg attendance due to discrepancy between sources

Hockey DB has our attendance numbers last year as:

2022/23

N/A

16757

19,347

87%

Attendance data from statista was last updated on Jul 13, 2022, so a little over a year out of date, hence appending with an additional source: NHL 2022-23 team attendance at hockeydb.com

Note that 2020-21 is of course excluded.

Taking into account the purposeful reduction in capacity in 2017/18 (I believe this was the year of seat covers...), attendance as a percentage of capacity declined for a number of years straight. If we take capacity from the year prior, 2017/18 would have been at 83%, bringing it in line with the trend at the time.

Note that capacity is now back up to 19,347 (20,500 with standing room) post 2022, however our record single game attendance is only 20,511 - Dec 4, 2014), so who knows if we'll hit that consistently or not.

Last year resulted in a significant bump in attendance to 87% average capacity. Not bad Sens Fans!

We had, unequivocally, the lowest attendance numbers of any franchise in the 2021-2022 season. Our total attendance number was 375,368, which was 34,540 lower than Buffalo over the course of the year. We were 100k less than Arizona.

Last year, we were 8th last in league average attendance.

Source: List of National Hockey League attendance figures - Wikipedia

From a straight numbers perspective, I'd venture to say that, no, attendance has not been great for a number of years. Whether last year's bump was a product of on-ice play or post-covid behaviour changes is undocumented, but it's likely that both played a factor.

I think a reasonable take here is that Andlauer and partners will embark on significant market research, which we will not be privy to, in order to help determine whether or not a move downtown can be fiscally justified.

As for the advertising commentary, I have to chuckle a little bit here and agree with you - do people really think that tech companies won't spend ad buys with the team if they move out of Kanata North's backyard? What a weird take.

Part of 21/22 season in Canada no fans were allowed.

 

[Relapsing]

You seem to be agreeing with the point I'm making while simultaneously believing that you're not. Let's say you only need 6k people to take LRT into and out of the game. This is well below the stated peak capacity of 10k. Let's assume 2 people per car, for the sake of easier math, that drive to the game and that currently 18k people drive to every game (I know those aren't the numbers but it's easier to work with absolute numbers). 6k people taking transit reduces the number of cars by at least 33%. That eases congestion in a significant way, makes the driving experience a lot better and adds a much improved transit option for those who prefer that mode of transportation. We're addressing the current issues in a pretty significant way without considering a move.

I'm just saying, if the math makes sense on a less costly refurb of the CTC that extends its life by 10-15 years and we can address some of the significant issues of arriving to and leaving from the game through mass transit, then it seems like the choice to build a new arena downtown is not as black and white as previously believed. I don't know if they will kick the can down the road but there's an alternative to consider now.

Ya we're largely just debating the details and clarifying stuff. I think where I do disagree is that having the rink located at the end of the transit line isn't ideal transit planning.

Speaking of, if I understand things correctly on double checking, peak capacity at 10k is per direction - so the LRT could theoretically clear the entire rink in an hour if placed centrally, or at ~9k riders, about half an hour.

I mentioned it earlier, but I think it's a little simplistic to just look at the capital cost of refurbishment if they want to kick the can down the road. Over time, the options for location will inevitably be reduced as development occurs, and material and labour costs will continue to rise.

Take the potential Federal buildings as an example: The Fed isn't gonna wait on the Sens to build a rink downtown if they have an opportunity to sell those plots to developers. That's a number of potential locations gone. Add in continued densification around existing and future LRT stations, and I think we're looking at a significant opportunity cost the longer the Sens wait to find a suitable location.

Additionally, I expect continued pressure and support from the City for this development to occur. Sutcliffe has put his cards on the table, and I suspect this will be a continued priority for him - it's a big win for him as Mayor, and is in line with the City's development and densification planning.

Part of 21/22 season in Canada no fans were allowed.

right - a salient point. I always forget we were waaaay more rigid about this in Canada.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

In the long run, it might make more sense to do a (throwing out a random number) $200M refurb of the existing building and push the city + province to speed up the LRT timeline. Why spend $1B in public and private money on a new building when you can refurb the current building for much much less and have the city and province spend that money on infrastructure to solve the single largest issue facing the current building - transit in and out. It kicks the can down the road by 15-20 years and, at that point, who knows where things are at?

Also, looking at interest rates and construction costs, it might not be the best time right now to break ground on such a large scale project. They're gonna wait a couple of years while inflationary pressure recedes a bit and to access financing at more palatable rates. At that point who knows what they decide. Very complex decision. Location becomes less of a factor too if you have reliable rapid mass transit. They own a ton of land around the arena too, maybe they look at developing that land for restaurants, hotels, bars, condos, etc.?

We’re probably a decade away from reliable public transport reaching the current location of the CTC…. if that location was ripe for hotels bars and restaurants, they would be there now, but they’re not.

A downtown central location is the logical choice for a new Arena and those non existing hotels bar and restaurants at the CTV location .

In addition to NHL hockey, concerts, ice cap adds and whatever, a central location is inviting for conventions as well… the CTC is the worst location possible for conventions.

 

[Golden_Jet]

We’re probably a decade away from reliable public transport reaching the current location of the CTC…. if that location was ripe for hotels bars and restaurants, they would be there now, but they’re not.

A downtown central location is the logical choice for a new Arena and those non existing hotels bar and restaurants at the CTV location .

In addition to NHL hockey, concerts, ice cap adds and whatever, a central location is inviting for conventions as well… the CTC is the worst location possible for conventions.

There already is convention centre downtown.
Hotels and bars not at CTC, because province wouldn’t change the land zoning, per Firestone.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

There already is convention centre downtown.
Hotels and bars not at CTC, because province wouldn’t change the land zoning, per Firestone.

Yes smaller conventions…. When was the last time there was a large convention, such as a political party convention?

there is not a good argument for remaining long term way out in Stittsville…
Just look around all the major sports leagues, pretty much all parks and Arenas are centrally located…

 

[BankStreetParade]

Ya we're largely just debating the details and clarifying stuff. I think where I do disagree is that having the rink located at the end of the transit line isn't ideal transit planning.

Speaking of, if I understand things correctly on double checking, peak capacity at 10k is per direction - so the LRT could theoretically clear the entire rink in an hour if placed centrally, or at ~9k riders, about half an hour.

I mentioned it earlier, but I think it's a little simplistic to just look at the capital cost of refurbishment if they want to kick the can down the road. Over time, the options for location will inevitably be reduced as development occurs, and material and labour costs will continue to rise.

Take the potential Federal buildings as an example: The Fed isn't gonna wait on the Sens to build a rink downtown if they have an opportunity to sell those plots to developers. That's a number of potential locations gone. Add in continued densification around existing and future LRT stations, and I think we're looking at a significant opportunity cost the longer the Sens wait to find a suitable location.

Additionally, I expect continued pressure and support from the City for this development to occur. Sutcliffe has put his cards on the table, and I suspect this will be a continued priority for him - it's a big win for him as Mayor, and is in line with the City's development and densification planning.


right - a salient point. I always forget we were waaaay more rigid about this in Canada.

The Sens could always buy a plot of land and defer building until the time makes sense. A potential refurbishment gives them, say, 10 years to see through the current life cycle of the CTC and then to start a new arena development at the end of that period. Construction could take about 3 years so they could get another 13 years out of the CTC and only start paying for a new arena in 10 years.

Things that will happen in those 10 years - new national TV deals in the US + Canada; new regional deal; competitive cycle of 5+ years with current core, including playoff revenue; expansion/relocation. They might be in a position once those pieces are settled to run a profitable operation without selling a single ticket to a game. That gives them a much better idea of where things are at financially before they start on a $1B development.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yes smaller conventions…. When was the last time there was a large convention, such as a political party convention?

there is not a good argument for remaining long term way out in Stittsville…
Just look around all the major sports leagues, pretty much all parks and Arenas are centrally located…

Probably best to wait awhile before a new building, especially since owner just forked out a billion.

I wouldn’t be rushing it yet.

 

[Beech]

The Sens could always buy a plot of land and defer building until the time makes sense. A potential refurbishment gives them, say, 10 years to see through the current life cycle of the CTC and then to start a new arena development at the end of that period. Construction could take about 3 years so they could get another 13 years out of the CTC and only start paying for a new arena in 10 years.

Things that will happen in those 10 years - new national TV deals in the US + Canada; new regional deal; competitive cycle of 5+ years with current core, including playoff revenue; expansion/relocation. They might be in a position once those pieces are settled to run a profitable operation without selling a single ticket to a game. That gives them a much better idea of where things are at financially before they start on a $1B development.

is the ideal situation not like the one in Edmonton? A building got started while the team is in rebuild. And opened with McDavid and crew bursting on the scene. So, success was guaranteed.

Any plan to open an arena must now be (or ideally should be) governed by the life cycle of the team and not the old building.

The CTC opened when the Sens burst into the playoffs and did not look back 1996/1997.

A new building needs to open ASAP (2026 at the latest) or wait about 7 or so years after.. So ~2033.

Making your 10 year wait more realistic.

Melnyk was no fool, he saw that cycle. As I am guessing Andlauer. What got missed 2-3 years ago!!!!