News Article: Lebreton...Interesting...NCC - PART 2

[Dan Patrick]

Good old Jimmy Watson....quiet as a church mouse these days

Probably part of his agreement with Claridge

 

[Samboni]

Here’s an opinion piece about why moving out of Kanata may not be such a hot idea.
Senators Move to Downtown Ottawa Doesn't Make Business Sense

 

[IpsoPostFacto]

Here’s an opinion piece about why moving out of Kanata may not be such a hot idea.
Senators Move to Downtown Ottawa Doesn't Make Business Sense

"Plenty of hockey fans already come early to games to visit the Tanger Outlets mall close to CTC"

well, I'm sold.

 

[starling]

Here’s an opinion piece about why moving out of Kanata may not be such a hot idea.
Senators Move to Downtown Ottawa Doesn't Make Business Sense

Yeah the guy has no idea what he's talking about. Mentions cost to cleanup at $300M while it's the price to clean up the entire LF which is 5x the arena site. Talks about business sense and then complains about taxpayers money. Talks about LRT not being able to handle 17K and then says about the need for parking. I bet he's not even aware there will be 3 stations to serve the arena.

Reads like an article written by ChatGPT after feeding it local news headlines from the last couple of years.

Per Linkedin, he's from "Greater Ottawa Area" so I guess he's just sour about having to spend an extra hour driving to a game.

 

[coladin]

Here’s an opinion piece about why moving out of Kanata may not be such a hot idea.
Senators Move to Downtown Ottawa Doesn't Make Business Sense

Some valid points in there

 

[ColinM]

Here’s an opinion piece about why moving out of Kanata may not be such a hot idea.
Senators Move to Downtown Ottawa Doesn't Make Business Sense

While I disagree with his point about Tanger Outlets, he's got a point about winning hockey being the factor that drives ticket sales. If the team sucks the excuse for not going will be "I don't like public transit" rather than "it's too far of a drive"

 

[DrEasy]

While I disagree with his point about Tanger Outlets, he's got a point about winning hockey being the factor that drives ticket sales. If the team sucks the excuse for not going will be "I don't like public transit" rather than "it's too far of a drive"

At the minimum it will be much easier to get some out-of-towners to go see the occasional hockey game if it's easy to access. This is what I do on my semi-regular trips to Vancouver. I wouldn't bother if the rink was way out of the way.

 

[Micklebot]

While I disagree with his point about Tanger Outlets, he's got a point about winning hockey being the factor that drives ticket sales. If the team sucks the excuse for not going will be "I don't like public transit" rather than "it's too far of a drive"

Winning hockey will always be the biggest driver for ticket sales, the question is what is a bigger impediment, long drives or public transit. I suspect the answer highly depends on the demographics you ask; the 30+ crowd I'm sure mostly prefer to drive. The university students and bar hopping crowdsare less likely to mind taking transit.

Ideal world, you have enough parking available (combined on site and nearby) for season ticket holders since I suspect as a group they'd be most likely to way to drive, but that's a big ask. Shuttles from restaurants might work too.

Idk, partner up with Uber or whatever to include vouchers with season tickets,

 

[JD1]

Winning hockey will always be the biggest driver for ticket sales, the question is what is a bigger impediment, long drives or public transit. I suspect the answer highly depends on the demographics you ask; the 30+ crowd I'm sure mostly prefer to drive. The university students and bar hopping crowdsare less likely to mind taking transit.

Ideal world, you have enough parking available (combined on site and nearby) for season ticket holders since I suspect as a group they'd be most likely to way to drive, but that's a big ask. Shuttles from restaurants might work too.

Idk, partner up with Uber or whatever to include vouchers with season tickets,

The ironic thing about the LRT is once this phase is complete from Orleans to Moodie, it's biggest accomplishment will literally be having 4 lanes of Queensway to drive on from end to end.

 

[ColinM]

At the minimum it will be much easier to get some out-of-towners to go see the occasional hockey game if it's easy to access. This is what I do on my semi-regular trips to Vancouver. I wouldn't bother if the rink was way out of the way.

But which out of towners do we covet? Are they people driving from Kingston or they people staying in hotels downtown. If you are driving to Ottawa I'd rather just take a single exit off the 417.

 

[DrEasy]

But which out of towners do we covet? Are they people driving from Kingston or they people staying in hotels downtown. If you are driving to Ottawa I'd rather just take a single exit off the 417.

I'm thinking tourists, staying downtown, who could walk to the rink or take a quick LRT.

If only Ottawa could have more cross-Atlantic flights (currently, just the one flight to Paris with Air France), it wouldn't be a bad tourist destination for Europeans. Having an easily accessible NHL rink wouldn't be a bad tourism argument for German, Swedish or Swiss visitors who love hockey. The Sens would benefit from Ottawa's infrastructure and vice-versa.

 

[Sun God Nika]

While I disagree with his point about Tanger Outlets, he's got a point about winning hockey being the factor that drives ticket sales. If the team sucks the excuse for not going will be "I don't like public transit" rather than "it's too far of a drive"

Winning is a big factor. Being more central is also huge.

I can only speak for myself. I hate driving to Kanata especially in the winter and on the highway at night. Getting stuck in the parking lot. Downtown is 15 minute drive for me. Also willing to guess its a way quicker drive for a majority of the Sens fans compared to those it will be an extended drive for.

People genuinely bored and looking for things to do will buy tickets if the rink is downtown. Where as you need to be more motivated to drive to Kanata to watch a sens game and more than likely an actual fan of the team.

 

[Samboni]

No matter where the rink is situated, it will be inconvenient for some to get there.

 

[ColinM]

I'm thinking tourists, staying downtown, who could walk to the rink or take a quick LRT.

If only Ottawa could have more cross-Atlantic flights (currently, just the one flight to Paris with Air France), it wouldn't be a bad tourist destination for Europeans. Having an easily accessible NHL rink wouldn't be a bad tourism argument for German, Swedish or Swiss visitors who love hockey. The Sens would benefit from Ottawa's infrastructure and vice-versa.

Wow there's not even a flight to London.? Even Halifax has a direct to London.

But more to the point, when the team is winning the bus rides on OC Transpo can be fun. In the short term perhaps they could be better marketed to people who stay in hotels close to the Rideau Center.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

While I disagree with his point about Tanger Outlets, he's got a point about winning hockey being the factor that drives ticket sales. If the team sucks the excuse for not going will be "I don't like public transit" rather than "it's too far of a drive"

when the team sucks, it will still draw more fans in a central location than the current location…

 

[aragorn]

when the team sucks, it will still draw more fans in a central location than the current location…

I don't know if that is true the RedBlacks are downtown & had very good attendance when the team was doing well but of course it was at a time when the Sens sucked. Now that the RedBlacks suck the attendance has dropped off substantially as I think a number of fans have gone back to the Sens. The population around the Kanata arena in the west end has also increased substantially over the last decade & continues to grow as more & more people buy into the area. Plus the High Tech sector is in the west end where the Sens would get most of their advertising dollars & sell their suites. And there are plenty of bars/road houses around the arena now especially at the Centrum Mall. Arnprior is growing, Carleton Place is growing, Barhaven is growing, Almonte is growing, Stittsville & Kanata continue to grow, the population is increasing dramatically in the west end.

I think there is enough population around the arena now to support the team & anyone east of the area is bonus money. The Leaf fans & Hab fans are going to continue to sell out the place no matter where it is & if this team gets off to a good start the fans will come out as they did before. It's all about winning in this town more so than where the arena is located, if they win consistently the fans will come out to support them, but if they once again have a mediocre season the fans will stop going. People want to be associated with a winner & this team has the makings of a pretty good team regardless of all the other factors people complain about, it's all about winning in sports.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't know if that is true the RedBlacks are downtown & had very good attendance when the team was doing well but of course it was at a time when the Sens sucked. Now that the RedBlacks suck the attendance has dropped off substantially as I think a number of fans have gone back to the Sens. The population around the Kanata arena in the west end has also increased substantially over the last decade & continues to grow as more & more people buy into the area. Plus the High Tech sector is in the west end where the Sens would get most of their advertising dollars & sell their suites. And there are plenty of bars/road houses around the arena now especially at the Centrum Mall. Arnprior is growing, Carleton Place is growing, Barhaven is growing, Almonte is growing, Stittsville & Kanata continue to grow, the population is increasing dramatically in the west end.

I think there is enough population around the arena now to support the team & anyone east of the area is bonus money. The Leaf fans & Hab fans are going to continue to sell out the place no matter where it is & if this team gets off to a good start the fans will come out as they did before. It's all about winning in this town more so than where the arena is located, if they win consistently the fans will come out to support them, but if they once again have a mediocre season the fans will stop going. People want to be associated with a winner & this team has the makings of a pretty good team regardless of all the other factors people complain about, it's all about winning in sports.

The redblacks attendance doesn't really tell us anything about the impact of location since they didn't move.

Nobody denies that a winning team will get more fans showing up than a losing team, the question is whether the same team would get more fans showing up in Kanata or downtown.

A move to downtown shouldn't mean fans and businesses in Kanata no longer come, or sponsor the team, it just mean the arena is more accessible for those in Gatineau, Orleans and the south end. Why would you want ~750k people to be an afterthought?

 

[slamigo]

A downtown arena is not some sort of panacea. If anything, it will drive up the price of tickets.

Attendance in Kanata is good. And it's actually amazing when the team is playing well.
So if attendance isn't the rationale to build downtown, what is the purpose of the move?

A new downtown arena is estimated at $800-1B. As owner of the Sens, why add that overhead if the team is competitive and selling out in Kanata?

And the article is correct in pointing out that Kanata, Stittsville, Barrhaven, etc all have had massive growth in population AND it's a population with high family incomes. Kanata has also seen a resurgence of the 'Silicon Valley North' placement of tech companies. It's a good spot for an arena for many reasons.

But the bottom line is the company bottom line: why spend money to move if it isn't necessary?

 

[Micklebot]

A downtown arena is not some sort of panacea. If anything, it will drive up the price of tickets.

Ticket prices are set by demand, if ticket prices rise it's likely an indication of increased demand, that's a good thing.

Attendance in Kanata is good. And it's actually amazing when the team is playing well.
So if attendance isn't the rationale to build downtown, what is the purpose of the move?

Is attendance in Kanata good? I'd say acceptable perhaps, but I certainly wouldn't say it's amazing. Amazing is being able to charge above league average prices and still sell out, we haven't done that in a long time, if ever.

A new downtown arena is estimated at $800-1B. As owner of the Sens, why add that overhead if the team is competitive and selling out in Kanata?

The estimates to build seem to balloon up all the time, but I suspect at 1 bill, you're including aspects that are non-hockey related revenue drivers, like retail space or condos.

Any build is going to look long term, so take into account the increasing maintenance cost, expected remaining lifespan of the ctc, tax implications ect. It's also going to offset costs by getting a return on selling the current location.

And the article is correct in pointing out that Kanata, Stittsville, Barrhaven, etc all have had massive growth in population AND it's a population with high family incomes. Kanata has also seen a resurgence of the 'Silicon Valley North' placement of tech companies. It's a good spot for an arena for many reasons.

A move to downtown doesn't mean fans in Kanata stop showing up though, it's not moving the area out of reach from those communities it just turns a 5 min drive into a 20 min drive. I'm not convinced the the high tech sector in Kanata will suddenly thumb their nose at the team form moving 20 mins down the road, really not seeing how they'll lose corporate support with a move.

But the bottom line is the company bottom line: why spend money to move if it isn't necessary?

Well clearly they see the potential for profit in doing so, we just saw a bunch of billionaires competing for the privilege of spending 1 bil for the right to spend more on that move.

 

[Relapsing]

Is attendance in Kanata good? I'd say acceptable perhaps, but I certainly wouldn't say it's amazing. Amazing is being able to charge above league average prices and still sell out, we haven't done that in a long time, if ever.

For reference, the following table was composed of attendance information from Ottawa Senators home attendance 2022 | Statista, and yearly capacity from Canadian Tire Centre - Wikipedia. Arena capacity % my calculation

Season	Total attendance	Average attendance	Arena Capacity	Arena Capacity %
2005/06	798,453	19,474	19,153	102%
2006/07	794,271	19,372	19,153	101%
2007/08	812,665	19,821	19,153	103%
2008/09	776,947	18,949	19,153	99%
2009/10	749,061	18,269	19,153	95%
2010/11	753,525	18,378	19,153	96%
2011/12	793,612	19,356	19,153	101%
2012/13*	465,801	19,408	19,153	101%
2013/14	742,468	18,108	19,153	95%
2014/15	748,112	18,246	19,153	95%
2015/16	741,472	18,084	19,153	94%
2016/17	686,534	16,744	19,153	87%
2017/18	648,996	15,829	17,373	91%
2018/19	596,684	14,553	18,655	78%
2019/20	466,876	12,618	18,655	68%
2021/22	375,368	10145*	18,655	54%

*Data corrected to reflect Hockey DB avg attendance due to discrepancy between sources

Hockey DB has our attendance numbers last year as:

2022/23

N/A

16757

19,347

87%

Attendance data from statista was last updated on Jul 13, 2022, so a little over a year out of date, hence appending with an additional source: NHL 2022-23 team attendance at hockeydb.com

Note that 2020-21 is of course excluded.

Taking into account the purposeful reduction in capacity in 2017/18 (I believe this was the year of seat covers...), attendance as a percentage of capacity declined for a number of years straight. If we take capacity from the year prior, 2017/18 would have been at 83%, bringing it in line with the trend at the time.

Note that capacity is now back up to 19,347 (20,500 with standing room) post 2022, however our record single game attendance is only 20,511 - Dec 4, 2014), so who knows if we'll hit that consistently or not.

Last year resulted in a significant bump in attendance to 87% average capacity. Not bad Sens Fans!

We had, unequivocally, the lowest attendance numbers of any franchise in the 2021-2022 season. Our total attendance number was 375,368, which was 34,540 lower than Buffalo over the course of the year. We were 100k less than Arizona.

Last year, we were 8th last in league average attendance.

Source: List of National Hockey League attendance figures - Wikipedia

From a straight numbers perspective, I'd venture to say that, no, attendance has not been great for a number of years. Whether last year's bump was a product of on-ice play or post-covid behaviour changes is undocumented, but it's likely that both played a factor.

I think a reasonable take here is that Andlauer and partners will embark on significant market research, which we will not be privy to, in order to help determine whether or not a move downtown can be fiscally justified.

As for the advertising commentary, I have to chuckle a little bit here and agree with you - do people really think that tech companies won't spend ad buys with the team if they move out of Kanata North's backyard? What a weird take.

 

[bert]

No matter where the rink is situated, it will be inconvenient for some to get there.

Now its extra inconvenient for 80% of the market. Bringing that down to a small percentage will do wonders.

I don't know if that is true the RedBlacks are downtown & had very good attendance when the team was doing well but of course it was at a time when the Sens sucked. Now that the RedBlacks suck the attendance has dropped off substantially as I think a number of fans have gone back to the Sens. The population around the Kanata arena in the west end has also increased substantially over the last decade & continues to grow as more & more people buy into the area. Plus the High Tech sector is in the west end where the Sens would get most of their advertising dollars & sell their suites. And there are plenty of bars/road houses around the arena now especially at the Centrum Mall. Arnprior is growing, Carleton Place is growing, Barhaven is growing, Almonte is growing, Stittsville & Kanata continue to grow, the population is increasing dramatically in the west end.

I think there is enough population around the arena now to support the team & anyone east of the area is bonus money. The Leaf fans & Hab fans are going to continue to sell out the place no matter where it is & if this team gets off to a good start the fans will come out as they did before. It's all about winning in this town more so than where the arena is located, if they win consistently the fans will come out to support them, but if they once again have a mediocre season the fans will stop going. People want to be associated with a winner & this team has the makings of a pretty good team regardless of all the other factors people complain about, it's all about winning in sports.

The products arent remotely comparable. Also the Redblacks had a full season cancelled and have been absolutely putrid for a long time. The concept that people think a DT location wont help is insane. Then you compound how terrible the experience is in Kanata on top of it being far. Worst design of a parking lot of all time, 0 walkable amenities and in the middle of no where.

 

[Micklebot]

For reference, the following table was composed of attendance information from Ottawa Senators home attendance 2022 | Statista, and yearly capacity from Canadian Tire Centre - Wikipedia. Arena capacity % my calculation

Season	Total attendance	Average attendance	Arena Capacity	Arena Capacity %
2005/06	798,453	19,474	19,153	102%
2006/07	794,271	19,372	19,153	101%
2007/08	812,665	19,821	19,153	103%
2008/09	776,947	18,949	19,153	99%
2009/10	749,061	18,269	19,153	95%
2010/11	753,525	18,378	19,153	96%
2011/12	793,612	19,356	19,153	101%
2012/13*	465,801	19,408	19,153	101%
2013/14	742,468	18,108	19,153	95%
2014/15	748,112	18,246	19,153	95%
2015/16	741,472	18,084	19,153	94%
2016/17	686,534	16,744	19,153	87%
2017/18	648,996	15,829	17,373	91%
2018/19	596,684	14,553	18,655	78%
2019/20	466,876	12,618	18,655	68%
2021/22	375,368	10145*	18,655	54%

*Data corrected to reflect Hockey DB avg attendance due to discrepancy between sources

Hockey DB has our attendance numbers last year as:

2022/23

N/A

16757

19,347

87%

Attendance data from statista was last updated on Jul 13, 2022, so a little over a year out of date, hence appending with an additional source: NHL 2022-23 team attendance at hockeydb.com

Note that 2020-21 is of course excluded.

Taking into account the purposeful reduction in capacity in 2017/18 (I believe this was the year of seat covers...), attendance as a percentage of capacity declined for a number of years straight. If we take capacity from the year prior, 2017/18 would have been at 83%, bringing it in line with the trend at the time.

Note that capacity is now back up to 19,347 (20,500 with standing room) post 2022, however our record single game attendance is only 20,511 - Dec 4, 2014), so who knows if we'll hit that consistently or not.

Last year resulted in a significant bump in attendance to 87% average capacity. Not bad Sens Fans!

We had, unequivocally, the lowest attendance numbers of any franchise in the 2021-2022 season. Our total attendance number was 375,368, which was 34,540 lower than Buffalo over the course of the year. We were 100k less than Arizona.

Last year, we were 8th last in league average attendance.

Source: List of National Hockey League attendance figures - Wikipedia

From a straight numbers perspective, I'd venture to say that, no, attendance has not been great for a number of years. Whether last year's bump was a product of on-ice play or post-covid behaviour changes is undocumented, but it's likely that both played a factor.

I think a reasonable take here is that Andlauer and partners will embark on significant market research, which we will not be privy to, in order to help determine whether or not a move downtown can be fiscally justified.

As for the advertising commentary, I have to chuckle a little bit here and agree with you - do people really think that tech companies won't spend ad buys with the team if they move out of Kanata North's backyard? What a weird take.

It's also worth noting that even in the good years we were comping a lot of tickets for less desirable nights like a Tuesday with Florida in town back when Florida was terrible. There's nothing wrong with comping tickets, but raw attendance figure doesn't give you the full picture as to why the team might be looking to improve on attendance.

 

[ColinM]

I think a reasonable take here is that Andlauer and partners will embark on significant market research, which we will not be privy to, in order to help determine whether or not a move downtown can be fiscally justified.

True. The Market Research will have to encompass the strengths and weakness of both the current location and downtown area.

The other real variable will be "how much are local governments willing to chip in?". That on its own can tip the scales of whether Kanata or Lebreton is the best location. I realize some on this board will be ok with tax dollars being spent on an arena, but I could understand why others might not feel the same way.

 

[ColinM]

The redblacks attendance doesn't really tell us anything about the impact of location since they didn't move.

Nobody denies that a winning team will get more fans showing up than a losing team, the question is whether the same team would get more fans showing up in Kanata or downtown.

A move to downtown shouldn't mean fans and businesses in Kanata no longer come, or sponsor the team, it just mean the arena is more accessible for those in Gatineau, Orleans and the south end. Why would you want ~750k people to be an afterthought?

We shouldn't ignore fans in any area, but they should be mindful of where the more sought after fans are. A wealthier area of Ottawa should be weighted more highly than a not so wealthy.

 

[Relapsing]

True. The Market Research will have to encompass the strengths and weakness of both the current location and downtown area.

The other real variable will be "how much are local governments willing to chip in?". That on its own can tip the scales of whether Kanata or Lebreton is the best location. I realize some on this board will be ok with tax dollars being spent on an arena, but I could understand why others might not feel the same way.

Yep. There's a whole litany of factors they'll be evaluating. Public dollars are for sure one of them. Projected municipal and regional growth, economic growth forecasts, ROI projections, current vs potential costs.... it's a long list. This is the due diligence any business would perform when considering moving their operations from one site to another.

We shouldn't ignore fans in any area, but they should be mindful of where the more sought after fans are. A wealthier area of Ottawa should be weighted more highly than a not so wealthy.

Bit of caution here - household income doesn't necessarily correlate to ticket purchases. While they might have more disposable income to spend on entertainment and recreation, it doesn't mean they do, or will, spend it on the Sens. Add in factors such as do they have kids and how many, etc... and the weighting starts to get pretty complicated. I'm definitely not a data engineer - I'm more into the analysis side of things - but I know enough to know it gets pretty complex.

If anyone is interesting in continuing down the rabbit hole, Statscan and ArcGis have some interesting tools available to you in the form of raw numbers, or visualized data.

For example, if we want to look at average household income by neighbourhood, here's the 2020 Census data mapped: Income of individuals, Ottawa neighbourhoods, 2020

Here's a more broad look at Kanata itself, for those discussing income related to the tech sector in Kanata North: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-...GENDERlist=1,2,3&STATISTIClist=1&HEADERlist=0

What's really missing though is data on current and past ticket purchasers, and it's not something I expect to be able to find - Market Research companies don't give that kind of stuff away.