Least excitement for start of a season?

[TommyKillian]

I usually don't resurrect threads... but I guess JFresh was right.

Not sure anyone saw us entering xmas break with
- Scheifele finding his inner Kopitar
- Pionk dominant
- Ehlers-Scheif-Vilardi as our best 1st line in years
- 14 players on pace for 25+ points - Scheifele on pace for 90 pt season
- Jomo equalling his 'record season'
- DeMelo and Dillon on pace for record scoring seasons
- Names still our 2C at xmas...
- Worst Specials in the league...

It's been great to watch. For the first time since the Jets came back, I bought into a ticket share with some guys I play hockey with (albeit just a mini pack). I used to buy the odd single game or chip in for tickets from other season ticket holders. If the team keeps playing like this, I could see buying even more games next year.

There definitely seems to be a lot of buzz about the team right now. I think excitement has steadily built since the Scheifele/Helley signings and people (even those not obsessed with hockey) are coming around. It's funny to me that a team that on paper looks boring and defensive minded, is mostly really exciting to watch. I've been really enjoying it this year.

 

[Whileee]

So, pretty much as I expected this season.

This team is probably second only to 2017/18 in overall quality, so far. They are fun to watch, and have a bunch of great characters.

 

[WolfHouse]

So, pretty much as I expected this season.

This team is probably second only to 2017/18 in overall quality, so far. They are fun to watch, and have a bunch of great characters.

To be fair, you were pretty hard on bones and predicted scoring would drop off... iirc

You were 100% right about the connor shooting slump correlation though

 

[WolfHouse]

I think it's hilarious that this thread was made the day before schief and helle extended

Pretty safe to say that there is some excitement in these parts nowadays

Deepfricknvalue is Chevy.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

season has been far more exciting than anticipated.

 

[MelikeJets]

I'm surprised how good the team is this year and eating crow over my bad vibes before season started. Biggest improvement in my opinion has been Chef's play and attitude....glad I was wrong! Keep it up boys!

 

[sipowicz]

season has been far more exciting than anticipated.

Except for the questionable reffing that always seems to go against the small market jets!

 

[Whileee]

2022/23 vs. 2023/24 - a quick comparison after 31 games:

Record:

2022: 20-10-1 (0.661, +23 goal differential)
2023: 19-9-2 (0.661, +23 goal differential)

Some metrics:

xGF% / CF% (5v5, SVA):

2022: 50.7 / 50.1
2023: 51.4 / 52.6

Somehow, this season feels more sustainable; much better forward depth and Pionk and Schmidt are both having solid seasons on D.

 

[Jet]

So, pretty much as I expected this season.

This team is probably second only to 2017/18 in overall quality, so far. They are fun to watch, and have a bunch of great characters.

Yup, I was super excited to start this season, and it's starting to come together.

Of course, we're right where we were last year at this time, but I don't see this group falling off a cliff.

Just hoping that KFC can score buckets of greasy goals when he comes back - that his knee feels strong.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

So, pretty much as I expected this season.

This team is probably second only to 2017/18 in overall quality, so far. They are fun to watch, and have a bunch of great characters.

The 5v5 play of this team is better than the 17-18 Jets. If special teams can be addressed, this team will out perform. For power play, the 17-18 team had a couple of options re canons for shots. Byf's truly heavy point shot and Laine's one timer are weapons that open up options for the PP. We don't have that so we need to rely more on seem passes which require quick, crisp movement to execute. Right now our pplay is completely static at times, just passing around the perimeter running out the clock. Under Bones and Arniel, this team can outperform the 17-18 team even a less dominant roster. We must be close to #1 league wide in 5v5 play. This speaks volumes about our change in coaching.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Lowered Expectations yield great results when the boys outperform most in most ways.
Vilardi is like a fever dream currently.
I never expected that crazy scoring streak from Perfetti this year.
Connor's eventual return will bring an abundance of options and talent back to an already solid and deadly line up.

But until we get into January and show that we can sustain and improve on our play (as the league in general will step it up in the new year)... I won't feel safe.

 

[Whileee]

Yup, I was super excited to start this season, and it's starting to come together.

Of course, we're right where we were last year at this time, but I don't see this group falling off a cliff.

Just hoping that KFC can score buckets of greasy goals when he comes back - that his knee feels strong.

The Jets have so much better depth this season at F. The 4th line is turning into a bit of a weapon, not only dominating play at 5v5 but also chipping in goals. I can't recall a regular 4th line that was as effective (and Kupari is still on the shelf).

Before the season, I noted how strong the Jets' line-up was, based on last year's performance (xGAR/60). Here's a reminder...

Jets are now rolling 4 lines that are beating their opposition in shot and goal metrics at 5v5. That's why I think this performance level is likely more sustainable that last season.

 

[Buffdog]

The Jets have so much better depth this season at F. The 4th line is turning into a bit of a weapon, not only dominating play at 5v5 but also chipping in goals. I can't recall a regular 4th line that was as effective (and Kupari is still on the shelf).

Before the season, I noted how strong the Jets' line-up was, based on last year's performance (xGAR/60). Here's a reminder...

View attachment 787824View attachment 787825

Jets are now rolling 4 lines that are beating their opposition in shot and goal metrics at 5v5. That's why I think this performance level is likely more sustainable that last season.

View attachment 787822

Not only is Kupari on the shelf, but so is Connor. He'll likely push iafallo down to the 4th when he returns

Barron Kupari Iafallo

is a dynamite 4th line (assuming they leave names between Connor and perfetti)

Now, not to rain on the parade... but about when did the slide start last year? Wasn't around now? I'm still optimistic that it won't happen again for all the reasons stated above

 

[fmrdh]

Vlad Namestnikov is a very underrated player who I think brings a lot to a GOOD roster. Solid in all 3 zones (top fwd in +/- and over +20 in his short time with the Jets so far), can play up and down the lineup and seems like he is well liked.

Sharks can take that 4th rounder in 2025 all day.

 

[WaveRaven]

I'm not so sure this will be sustained. Fool me once etc. So I remain very cautiously optimistic.

They still are playing a perimeter game and things will tighten up after the new year. So I expect some drop off but hopefully not a disaster like last season.

 

[Gm0ney]

Not only is Kupari on the shelf, but so is Connor. He'll likely push iafallo down to the 4th when he returns

Barron Kupari Iafallo

is a dynamite 4th line (assuming they leave names between Connor and perfetti)

Now, not to rain on the parade... but about when did the slide start last year? Wasn't around now? I'm still optimistic that it won't happen again for all the reasons stated above

Connor...every metric (including good luck) has improved without him over the last 5 games. That top line looks legit...

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

Except for the questionable reffing that always seems to go against the small market jets!

It really does. I have friends who couldn’t care less about the Jets (Leafs diehards) and even they have commented on it.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Connor...every metric (including good luck) has improved without him over the last 5 games. That top line looks legit...

How much is that villardi?

 

[Buffdog]

Connor...every metric (including good luck) has improved without him over the last 5 games. That top line looks legit...

Yeah, when our leading goal scorer gets healthy, we should probably have him eating popcorn in the press box....

Pretty sure stats guys like to talk about sample size, and for good reason. By the time he's healed, it should he pretty close and we'll talk then.

Not to mention that at that point, if that 1st line is still rocking (I hope it is), then we'll have to factor in how Connor affects the 2nd line

Also, can you compare ESV to ESC, at least to make it more apples to apples? Connor had Iafallo on his line for a decent chunk of those 21 games instead of ehlers. That's gotta make a huge difference

 

[Jets 31]

While i totally agree about how we played in game 5 of the playoffs last season i really think the change of personnel done since then the Jets are a more complete team than last season. New players , new captain, new contracts all are reasons , at least to me, to be pretty pumped about this season.

Mr Shmarty pants ha ha .

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Lowered Expectations yield great results when the boys outperform most in most ways.
Vilardi is like a fever dream currently.
I never expected that crazy scoring streak from Perfetti this year.
Connor's eventual return will bring an abundance of options and talent back to an already solid and deadly line up.

But until we get into January and show that we can sustain and improve on our play (as the league in general will step it up in the new year)... I won't feel safe.

22 games with under 3 goals is the most impressive part of the season.

Edit: Not sure why this isn’t discussed more.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yeah, when our leading goal scorer gets healthy, we should probably have him eating popcorn in the press box....

Yes, that's exactly what I was arguing...

Pretty sure stats guys like to talk about sample size, and for good reason. By the time he's healed, it should he pretty close and we'll talk then.

Not to mention that at that point, if that 1st line is still rocking (I hope it is), then we'll have to factor in how Connor affects the 2nd line

Also, can you compare ESV to ESC, at least to make it more apples to apples? Connor had Iafallo on his line for a decent chunk of those 21 games instead of ehlers. That's gotta make a huge difference

Yes, sample sizes are pretty small, so it's all to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. But I think most would agree that Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi is a well-constructed line where each player brings different strengths to the table and the whole just might be greater than the sum of its parts. That PDO is wild right now though. I wouldn't expect that line to average 6 points a night the rest of the way...

Here's ESV vs ESC vs CSV vs CSI to compare your apples:

 

[Buffdog]

Yes, that's exactly what I was arguing...

Yes, sample sizes are pretty small, so it's all to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. But I think most would agree that Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi is a well-constructed line where each player brings different strengths to the table and the whole just might be greater than the sum of its parts. That PDO is wild right now though. I wouldn't expect that line to average 6 points a night the rest of the way...

Here's ESV vs ESC vs CSV vs CSI to compare your apples:
View attachment 788060

So when you compare ESV to CSV, sample size becomes even more of an issue... BUT by all metrics they are similar (I think the SV% probably affects the GA/60). In other words, I think the big difference isn't that Ehlers replaced Connor, it's that Vilardi replaced Iafallo

 

[Gm0ney]

So when you compare ESV to CSV, sample size becomes even more of an issue... BUT by all metrics they are similar (I think the SV% probably affects the GA/60). In other words, I think the big difference isn't that Ehlers replaced Connor, it's that Vilardi replaced Iafallo

Vilardi is definitely a huge improvement on Iafalo - that line was better defensively than any of the other combos above, but at the cost of a lot of offense - a losing tradeoff.

5.86 xGF/60 ESV is putting up at even strength is obscene - maybe (probably?) unsustainable. McDavid-Draisaitl put up 4.53 xGF/60 last season at evens.

Anyway, I think each of Ehlers, Scheifele and Vilardi are pieces of the puzzle - and the Ehlers piece is a better fit than the Connor piece. With Ehlers instead of Connor, you trade off some finishing talent for better zone exits/entries and a bit more offensive creativity...and I still think Ehlers is not as lost in the defensive zone as Connor is.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Even I'm guilty for sleeping on this team. We're bound for playoffs I say as of today.