Confirmed with Link: LEAFS WIN #1 PICK IN 2026 NHL DRAFT

[ITM]

I think they are very similar players to be honest. But I do think Stenberg’s two way play gets overrated. Hes the exact same size as McKenna height wise.

I think the delta for me is McKenna has shown flashes of exceptional play at almost every level. Stenberg is a solid player who does a lot of things well but nothing ground breaking. I think a lot of people have just accepted McKenna will struggle more than Stenberg but I’m not sure that’s necessarily true. Neither is an elite skater, both guys are fairly smaller, both played this year against men bigger than them. I think the same things people are worry about McKenna should be applied to Stenberg too.

I give slight edge to McKenna because he’s simply dominated at every level since playing organized hockey. So he has a better track record

He's got historical comparables. He's kind of ground breaking.

This is going to be an interesting narrative to follow in the years to come.

 

[Stephen]

No, it's not that at all. I think it's interesting and fun to debate these things when I feel there's something there; clearly, some don't agree, and that's fine.

But I fully accept that they're taking McKenna and will welcome him, and won't wish or hope for him to fail. As I've said in this thread a few times now, I really like the kid and his story.

But I look at the lack of unanimity, like in the TSN scouts poll or even throughout the year from various people, as well as my own dissonance when I watch him and wonder about the pick.


And I'm not saying he's going to bust. But part of the concern is that his likely upside range is near that of Keller or a Kessel, possibly Panarin, which is a very exciting player, but as a winger, is that something you build your team around?

I don't see Panarin as someone too far off from Nylander (William), and if he were seen as a principal piece of a rebuild, I don't think it would be that well constructed.

Also, there's a historical aspect of wingers going in the top 3 or 5 over the last 15 years or so that isn't reassuring either. I'm not sure what stock to put it in, but seeing the trends in the way NHL clubs draft is interesting to me.

Thing is, guys like Panarin, Kessel, Nylander, Marner etc. are not readily replaceable players either. Yeah we’ve been a poorly constructed forward heavy program the past decade but at the upper end if that player type, they kind of elite skill on the wing is not something all teams have, and are as hard to come by as a classic RHD number one defenseman.

We are gradually entering a new era so the strengths of the last rebuild will not always be there. Just keep that in mind lest you sleep on elite wingers too much. The thing is we are also not making historical comparisons but looking forward to how we can develop McKenna. And the good news is this team is good at bringing forwards along.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Thing is, guys like Panarin, Kessel, Nylander, Marner etc. are not readily replaceable players either. Yeah we’ve been a poorly constructed forward heavy program the past decade but at the upper end if that player type, they kind of elite skill on the wing is not something all teams have, and are as hard to come by as a classic RHD number one defenseman.

Certainly, and perhaps I should have viewed it more as found money, as we should really have the 5th pick. But given it is 1st and they have the pick of the litter, the possibility to fill, an almost generational need for this team in getting #1d, it's also quite tantalizing.

But I know that McKenna will be chosen, and I hope he does well and leaves me with little to no doubt and no remorse about not picking one of the others.

 

[Stephen]

Certainly, and perhaps I should have viewed it more as found money, as we should really have the 5th pick. But given it is 1st and they have the pick of the litter, the possibility to fill, an almost generational need for this team in getting #1d, it's also quite tantalizing.

But I know that McKenna will be chosen, and I hope he does well and leaves me with little to no doubt and no remorse about not picking one of the others.

I went down that road too but if you run down the same mental exercise with a Chase Reid you’re kinda stuck with the same doubts. You might have a Zach Werenski. But it’ll probably be something like a Noah Dobson. And if you miss altogether it’s Griffin Reinhart.

 

[sd1976]

He's here every summer. His wife's from here. He got married here. He went to the first World Cup game this year (in Toronto). He goes to many concerts in Toronto every summer. McDavid is here right now.

He was with his buddy (hint: newest Leaf) on Saturday.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Damn I like this guy. Confident beyond his years, wants to be here, super talented, part native. He checks every box.

 

[sd1976]

I can tell you out west many equate Ontario = Toronto.

It's wrong and we've explained that to many people over the almost 3 decades we've been here. Even teachers in high school have expressed those opinions.

We just tell them Ontario is great, but we'd never live in Toronto.

This is fair. I’ll tell you, I live in Caledon, but grew up in Toronto proper. I would never go back. And that’s only about half hour or so to downtown

 

[Peasy]

Certainly, and perhaps I should have viewed it more as found money, as we should really have the 5th pick. But given it is 1st and they have the pick of the litter, the possibility to fill, an almost generational need for this team in getting #1d, it's also quite tantalizing.

But I know that McKenna will be chosen, and I hope he does well and leaves me with little to no doubt and no remorse about not picking one of the others.

Except theres no clear cut guy in this draft that is highly likely to become a #1, so why are you so hung up on that fact? If there was, he would be ranked number 1. Theres not a single D in this draft getting first overall votes. Sure, one will likely become one in this draft class like many others, but youre shooting fish in a barrel at that point.

 

[sd1976]

I honestly love this kid and his confidence.

 

[The Masters]

hey keith
stick it u know where

 

[Rare Jewel]

Except theres no clear cut guy in this draft that is highly likely to become a #1, so why are you so hung up on that fact? If there was, he would be ranked number 1. Theres not a single D in this draft getting first overall votes. Sure, one will likely become one in this draft class like many others, but youre shooting fish in a barrel at that point.

Well, some think Reid can, some think Carels and even Smits could as well. I think if we had our pick there @ 2-5 instead of 1st, our hope/expectation would be to become a #1 D right?

I went down that road too but if you run down the same mental exercise with a Chase Reid you’re kinda stuck with the same doubts. You might have a Zach Werenski. But it’ll probably be something like a Noah Dobson. And if you miss altogether it’s Griffin Reinhart.

Well, if you're going to Bluesky McKenna, I think you have to give a similar benefit of the doubt to the others as well.

 

[authentic]

I don’t think so. I think if McDavid leaves it’s San Jose to play with Celebrini or home to Toronto.

All I’ve heard from people that know McDavid is he cares a lot about legacy. What he does in hockey matters to him.

This is my own assumption but I think the challenge of coming to Toronto and winning here for McDavid would put his legacy in a category where he stands alone, one that’s better than Gretzky’s and I think that will be one of the motivating factors for him to come to the Leafs.

If he’s joining a team with McKenna, Matthews, Knies, Nylander, etc. That’s also a huge factor as well. Imagine all that talent on one hockey club?

 

[Zybalto]

If he’s joining a team with McKenna, Matthews, Knies, Nylander, etc. That’s also a huge factor as well. Imagine all that talent on one hockey club?

Its one of the biggest reasons to maintain a competitive club and hope the Oilers crap the bed.

We are going to have the cap regardless of outcomes too.

2 more years.......

 

[Buds17]

Its one of the biggest reasons to maintain a competitive club and hope the Oilers crap the bed.

We are going to have the cap regardless of outcomes too.

2 more years.......

If they build it, he will come.

Home is where the heart is.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

If he’s joining a team with McKenna, Matthews, Knies, Nylander, etc. That’s also a huge factor as well. Imagine all that talent on one hockey club?

I agree, and I think McDavid is coming to Toronto regardless of what happens in Edmonton.

If he wins the cup in the next 2 years, he can say "my work here is done, we finished what we started"

If he doesn't, he can say "I've given 10+ years to this city, we've had the best 2 players in the world almost the entire time, and we still can't win? I'm moving on"

He has a pretty easy narrative either way.

 

[Kazparov]

I typically guard my enthusiasm, and choose cautious optimism when it comes to future expectations.

But I just allowed myself to wonder,

"What if Gavin McKenna actually does turn out to be a generational talent?"

That was fun.

 

[francis246]

Its one of the biggest reasons to maintain a competitive club and hope the Oilers crap the bed.

We are going to have the cap regardless of outcomes too.

2 more years.......

In my head, the Leafs are building towards courting McDavid in 2 years, not keeping Matthews. I think we end up trading Matthews and having a competitive framework that allows a guy like McDavid to come home.

Imagine McDavid not bolting for the US and instead saying I’m gonna dive deep into the heart of the hockey universe and try and win there. He would be glorified

 

[Hellcat]

Marner did a lot of that highlight reel stuff in junior too. Seemed to translate for him, it will for McKenna.

From all accounts McKenna is a very cerebral athlete, i ahve no doubt he will eventually adjust.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

In my head, the Leafs are building towards courting McDavid in 2 years, not keeping Matthews. I think we end up trading Matthews and having a competitive framework that allows a guy like McDavid to come home.

Imagine McDavid not bolting for the US and instead saying I’m gonna dive deep into the heart of the hockey universe and try and win there. He would be glorified

Why not both? I think they have the cap space and money is obviously not an issue for this team.

 

[Stephen]

Well, some think Reid can, some think Carels and even Smits could as well. I think if we had our pick there @ 2-5 instead of 1st, our hope/expectation would be to become a #1 D right?


Well, if you're going to Bluesky McKenna, I think you have to give a similar benefit of the doubt to the others as well.

I think people are going more “blue sky” on McKenna in light of your more pessimistic take. All these prospects have their ceiling and floor comps more or less baked into their rankings best to everyone’s casual knowledge.

 

[TheDoldrums]

feels relevant to the draft a defenseman conversation

 

[Hellcat]

"McKenna is not a Crosby or McDavid level prospect"

Literally nobody you're responding to stated he is, nobody inferred as much, you're attacking an argument that has not been made, that is the literal definition of a strawman.

"All I'm saying is slow down"

Slow down with what? The non-existent Crosby/McDavid comparisons that YOU made up?

One does not need to be McDavid or Crosby level to be NHL ready, there hasn't been a #1 overall drafted forward to not play the following NHL season in well over 30 years, that's not going to change in 2026-27.

Quit projecting and go to bed, you clearly haven't spent an adequate amount of time watching(or even following) McKenna or Lafreniere(as a prospect) so why continue to embarrass yourself with laughably bad takes?

I assumed the purpose of referencing specific players was pretty obvious—to establish the difference between a truly elite, generational talent and a good NHL player. If that inference needs to be explained step-by-step, we're probably not having the same conversation.

Slafkovský was drafted first overall, but let's not pretend he was NHL-ready from day one. He scored 4 goals in his rookie season. Yes, he was on a weak team, but nothing about that season suggested he was immediately prepared to be a difference-maker at the NHL level. You're conflating playing in the NHL and being NHL ready as if it is the same thing, second time you've done that.

You seem far more interested in arguing than discussing the actual point. Whether that's frustration or immaturity, I'll leave that up to others to decide.

A conversation requires two people willing to engage in good faith. I don't see that happening here, so I'll leave it at that.

Take care.

 

[ToDavid]

If McDavid leaves Edmonton he’s going stateside. Wants those low taxes and sunshine. Kudos for committing to a team with lousy ownership and management but enough is enough.

I don't think he's going anywhere but if he was going to chase a ring, low taxes, and good weather, he would have left by now. I think first and foremost he wants to win in Edmonton. If he does leave, he's only going to Toronto.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

If they build it, he will come.

Home is where the heart is.

 

[ITM]

feels relevant to the draft a defenseman conversation

Caveat emptor for sure.

Off the top of my head, I don't recall the early 2010s being a boon for defencemen drafted in the 1st round. I think it picks up around 2015, but drops off again around 2020-21. Maybe there's a cycle to be gleaned every five years and we're coming back into a stretch of good 1st round/2nd defencemen?

Again, spitballing.

I want one of the two forwards with our 1OA.