Confirmed with Link: LEAFS WIN #1 PICK IN 2026 NHL DRAFT

[The Hanging Jowl]

This entire thread is reliving the Matthews Laine debate. I think we all know who won that debate. You take the best player, period That's McKenna.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I think if you’re intent on preventing yourself from enjoying the draft process, who am I to stop you. I just don’t know what the point is in scraping the bottom of the barrel for the worst comparables are when there isn’t a more perfect pick out there at 1OA.

No, it's not that at all. I think it's interesting and fun to debate these things when I feel there's something there; clearly, some don't agree, and that's fine.

But I fully accept that they're taking McKenna and will welcome him, and won't wish or hope for him to fail. As I've said in this thread a few times now, I really like the kid and his story.

But I look at the lack of unanimity, like in the TSN scouts poll or even throughout the year from various people, as well as my own dissonance when I watch him and wonder about the pick.

I’m not saying McKenna is perfect, or that he can’t bust. But what’s the point in seeking these generational player/talent certifications from message boards anyway when we know he’s a dynamic young talent?

If worst comes and he turns into Jonathan Drouin, just rest easy knowing these kind of players hold value for a long time. Drouin himself was traded for Mikhail Sergachev. And if we continue to suck we will be in position to draft 1OA over and over. Life goes on.

And I'm not saying he's going to bust. But part of the concern is that his likely upside range is near that of Keller or a Kessel, possibly Panarin, which is a very exciting player, but as a winger, is that something you build your team around?

I don't see Panarin as someone too far off from Nylander (William), and if he were seen as a principal piece of a rebuild, I don't think it would be that well constructed.

Also, there's a historical aspect of wingers going in the top 3 or 5 over the last 15 years or so that isn't reassuring either. I'm not sure what stock to put it in, but seeing the trends in the way NHL clubs draft is interesting to me.

 

[kb]

No, it's not that at all. I think it's interesting and fun to debate these things when I feel there's something there; clearly, some don't agree, and that's fine.

But I fully accept that they're taking McKenna and will welcome him, and won't wish or hope for him to fail. As I've said in this thread a few times now, I really like the kid and his story.

But I look at the lack of unanimity, like in the TSN scouts poll or even throughout the year from various people, as well as my own dissonance when I watch him and wonder about the pick.


And I'm not saying he's going to bust. But part of the concern is that his likely upside range is near that of Keller or a Kessel, possibly Panarin, which is a very exciting player, but as a winger, is that something you build your team around?

I don't see Panarin as someone too far off from Nylander (William), and if he were seen as a principal piece of a rebuild, I don't think it would be that well constructed.

Also, there's a historical aspect of wingers going in the top 3 or 5 over the last 15 years or so that isn't reassuring either. I'm sure what stuck to put it in that, seeing the thread in the way NHL club draft is interesting to me.

Mental Gymnastics at the PhD level here.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Tyler Myers had a great rookie season as a d-man also. As did Rielly and Luke Schenn.

Sure...

Completely untrue - I view it the opposite way.

McDavid always walks around Toronto every summer. He's not bothered taking pictures and interacting with them.

Marner was the opposite way. He was scared of the fans and walked around with security and always anxious about being recognized.

I think Marner's personality is more likely to not want to be here than McDavid. McDavid goes to festivals and hangs out with Leafs fans. He doesn't hide behind security like Marner does.

I mean, he could've stayed unsigned this summer. Why didn't he?

Also, I'm not sure what Marner has to do with this.

 

[Divine]

I mean, he could've stayed unsigned this summer. Why didn't he?

Also, I'm not sure what Marner has to do with this.

He signed after his team went to back to back Cups because leaving a team with back to back Cups without ever winning would give him the reputation of a loser/quitter.

His mistake was signing before the season to avoid the distraction. He also could have signed for more than 2 years, but didn't.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Mental Gymnastics at the PhD level here.

Well, I guess if you don't believe he's Kucherov, there's always going to be a problem, I guess.

 

[Rare Jewel]

His mistake was signing before the season to avoid the distraction. He also could have signed for more than 2 years, but didn't

Yes, due to the media attention there.

The latter point is due to the growing cap. Moldaver has him, Matthews and Josi all up at the same time to capitalize on what may be a $125m cap.

 

[Divine]

Yes, due to the media attention there.

The latter point is due to the growing cap. Moldaver has him, Matthews and Josi all up at the same time to capitalize on what may be a $125m cap.

If he was so concerned about capitalizing on the growing cap I don't think he would have signed at a lower cap percentage his last contract.

It seems more likely that he didn't want to commit to Edmonton for more than 2 additional years.

 

[Peasy]

No, it's not that at all. I think it's interesting and fun to debate these things when I feel there's something there; clearly, some don't agree, and that's fine.

But I fully accept that they're taking McKenna and will welcome him, and won't wish or hope for him to fail. As I've said in this thread a few times now, I really like the kid and his story.

But I look at the lack of unanimity, like in the TSN scouts poll or even throughout the year from various people, as well as my own dissonance when I watch him and wonder about the pick.


And I'm not saying he's going to bust. But part of the concern is that his likely upside range is near that of Keller or a Kessel, possibly Panarin, which is a very exciting player, but as a winger, is that something you build your team around?

I don't see Panarin as someone too far off from Nylander (William), and if he were seen as a principal piece of a rebuild, I don't think it would be that well constructed.

Also, there's a historical aspect of wingers going in the top 3 or 5 over the last 15 years or so that isn't reassuring either. I'm sure what stuck to put it in that, seeing the thread in the way NHL club draft is interesting to me.

So basically, youd rather Malhotra/Bjorck/Reid/Carles because they dont play wing?

 

[Rare Jewel]

If he was so concerned about capitalizing on the growing cap I don't think he would have signed at a lower cap percentage his last contract.

That was to help the team, in exchange for a shorter-term deal, where he'll get a chance to ring the bell at near max contract with a 120m+ cap.

The lower cap hit also creates a sense of "I've done my part" and will allow for a cleaner break should he move on past this contract.

 

[ACC1224]

If McDavid leaves Edmonton he’s going stateside. Wants those low taxes and sunshine. Kudos for committing to a team with lousy ownership and management but enough is enough.

Wouldn't be a surprise at all.
He'll go where he thinks he has the best chance to win, that's not the Leafs.

 

[Peasy]

Wouldn't be a surprise at all.
He'll go where he thinks he has the best chance to win, that's not the Leafs.

Then he would just be looked at like Kevin Durant and I dont think McDavid would want that.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Honestly, at this time I won't be unhappy with McKenna or Stenberg.

I know both will be key top line wingers for us for years to come!

But one is projected to be a better top line winger with a higher ceiling. It’s a no-brainer, Mckenna is our pick.

 

[Rare Jewel]

So basically, youd rather Malhotra/Bjorck/Reid/Carles because they dont play wing?

At risk of ridicule, possibly. Not only due to position, but it's a factor, sure. However, I wouldn't pick them @ 1, I'd look to move down hopefully for quite the ransom.

Bjork still may end up on the wing himself, so I'd need clarity on his intention there.

Not as keen on Malhotra as some are; offensive upside, I'm not sold on.

But the defencemen, at least one of them, is going to be a number#1 and that up against a 1st line winger potential in either McKenna or Stenberg, depending on your taste, is where the meat of the debate is IMO.

 

[TheDoldrums]

 

[Statsman1]

I feel like, for some people, winning the first overall pick is like being given a very expensive car, and then being afraid to drive it.

There is always going to be risk, there is always going to be the chance of failure, but in the end, you get the car, and you drive it and see where it takes you.

Suggesting the Leafs shouldn't take McKenna because he might not justify being the 1OA is ridiculous, regardless of whomever is out there. Stenberg might not justify it either. Why did we want to win the lottery if we were going to worry about being WRONG?

 

[TheDoldrums]

But the defencemen, at least one of them, is going to be a number#1 and that up against a 1st line winger potential in either McKenna or Stenberg, depending on your taste, is where the meat of the debate is IMO.

Even assuming you can correctly identify which of the 5 (?) top defenseman becomes that #1, is it really that simple? Do you think McAvoy is more valuable than Pastrnak for example? I don't.

 

[francis246]

What's the delta I wonder?

Everyone continues to gaga over McKenna's potential but very few discuss Stenberg's.

If Stenberg's starting point is better right now. Keeping in mind he also has historic numbers...I just don't see how we can write off his playing potential as having something comparble.

I've settled with the idea we're taking McKenna.

If Stenberg takes off...I hope many here have settled with the notion that the better player now had every reason to have faith invested in him as being the better player in the future.

Getting this right is no small task.

I think they are very similar players to be honest. But I do think Stenberg’s two way play gets overrated. Hes the exact same size as McKenna height wise.

I think the delta for me is McKenna has shown flashes of exceptional play at almost every level. Stenberg is a solid player who does a lot of things well but nothing ground breaking. I think a lot of people have just accepted McKenna will struggle more than Stenberg but I’m not sure that’s necessarily true. Neither is an elite skater, both guys are fairly smaller, both played this year against men bigger than them. I think the same things people are worry about McKenna should be applied to Stenberg too.

I give slight edge to McKenna because he’s simply dominated at every level since playing organized hockey. So he has a better track record

 

[Rare Jewel]

Even assuming you can correctly identify which of the 5 (?) top defenseman becomes that #1, is it that simple? Do you think McAvoy is more valuable than Pastrnak?

It's close. Value isn't just the goals and assists, but I could see the case for him over McAvoy. However, I'd say that example, and its closeness, is an exception, not the rule.

Ovechkin, being the most impactful player on his team, is why it took so long for him to win a cup and why Crosby had 3 before his 1st.

 

[Divine]

 

[Rare Jewel]

4 ads?

He better be good.

 

[francis246]

Wouldn't be a surprise at all.
He'll go where he thinks he has the best chance to win, that's not the Leafs.

I don’t think so. I think if McDavid leaves it’s San Jose to play with Celebrini or home to Toronto.

All I’ve heard from people that know McDavid is he cares a lot about legacy. What he does in hockey matters to him.

This is my own assumption but I think the challenge of coming to Toronto and winning here for McDavid would put his legacy in a category where he stands alone, one that’s better than Gretzky’s and I think that will be one of the motivating factors for him to come to the Leafs.

 

[kb]

I don’t think so. I think if McDavid leaves it’s San Jose to play with Celebrini or home to Toronto.

All I’ve heard from people that know McDavid is he cares a lot about legacy. What he does in hockey matters to him.

This is my own assumption but I think the challenge of coming to Toronto and winning here for McDavid would put his legacy in a category where he stands alone, one that’s better than Gretzky’s and I think that will be one of the motivating factors for him to come to the Leafs.

Now this I likey. lol

 

[ITM]

You gotta love the stones, lol.

 

[francis246]

Now this I likey. lol

Pure speculation on my part * but I think McDavid is one of those guys who isn’t scared of being in the spotlight. He wants to be in a place where hockey matters, that’s why I think he resigned in Edmonton. That market cares deeply about the Oilers