Yup. Thing is too, it's not like Nylander has all of sudden started playing in the contract year, if he sets career highs this season (which he more than likely will), it'll be the 3rd season in a row that he's done that. Nobody can say for sure what his next 5-7 years will look like - will he trend the way Marchand did or drop off substantially instead? It could obviously go either way but the fact that this upward trend is in it's 3rd year makes me think that Nylander has simply developed into an elite player and he'll be an elite player for years to come.
Calling him an inconsistent floater is a bit much. He's an effortless skater the same way Sundin was so he just appears to be coasting sometimes. He's also likely to set career highs for the 3rd year in a row so it's not just a matter of going nuts in a contract year. If you're an inconsistent floater, you don't put up career highs for 3 years in a row taking your place among the top scorers in the league in the process, simple as that.
I don't want to pay him 11, I didn't want to pay Matthews 13+ either, especially after the season he had where he didn't even crack the top 20 in points. But in both cases, I'd rather pay them a bit more than I'd be happy doing than lose them. JMHO.