Series Talk: Leafs Vs Lightning- Thunderstruck

[wingman75]

Lines with 5+ minutes / Pairs with 10+ minutes 5v5 so far:


1st Lines

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov: 24.4min, 50.0gf%, 24.3xgf%

Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 19.3min, 100.0gf%, 23.2xgf%
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner: 11.2min, 66.7gf%, 58.5xgf%

2nd Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli: 26.2min, 0.0gf%, 52.8xgf%

Nylander-Tavares-Kase: 11.3min, 0.0gf%, 64.2xgf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase: 7.1min, 0.0gf%, 44.4xgf%

3rd Lines

Hagel-Paul-Colton: 29.6min, 33.3gf%, 59.3xg%

Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall: 21.2min, 0.0gf%, 41.4xgf%
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander: 8.1min, 0.0gf%, 80.8xgf%

4th Lines

Maroon-Bellemare-Perry: 18.3min, 50.7gf%, 50.4xgf%

n/a (but all combos have largely been trash so far except in the few shifts that Engvall took on the 4th line)



1st Pairs

Hedman-Cernak: 34.9min, 62.7gf%, 76.7xgf%

Muzzin-Brodie: 46.1min, 67.3gf%, 58.1xgf%

2nd Pairs

McDonagh-Bogosian: 29.4min, 67.3gf%, 43.5xgf%
McDonagh-Cernak: 12.6min, 0.0gf%, 47.9xgf%
McDonagh-Foote: 12.2min, 0.0gf%, 58.8xgf%

Rielly-Lyubushkin: 41.6min, 26.0gf%, 39.6xgf%

3rd Pairs

Sergachev-Foote: 30.2min, 0.0gf%, 45.8xgf%

Giordano-Liljegren: 21.7min, 64.3gf%, 33.2xgf%
Giordano-Holl: 15.8min, 0.0gf%, 76.3xgf%

Interesting numbers, and thank you.

Can anyone explain to me why Holl's xgf% is almost always high? Is it that he is generally good, but when he makes a mistake it is colossal? He fails the eye test every game for me... I just don't remember a player who looks so bad and has generally good advanced stats.

 

[zeke]

Interesting numbers, and thank you.

Can anyone explain to me why Holl's xgf% is almost always high? Is it that he is generally good, but when he makes a mistake it is colossal? He fails the eye test every game for me... I just don't remember a player who looks so bad and has generally good advanced stats.

His good old fashioned regular stats are always as good as his advanced stats, btw.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Interesting numbers, and thank you.

Can anyone explain to me why Holl's xgf% is almost always high? Is it that he is generally good, but when he makes a mistake it is colossal? He fails the eye test every game for me... I just don't remember a player who looks so bad and has generally good advanced stats.

The working theory is that the college dropouts who run public analytic sites are all related to him.

 

[TorMapleJays]

What don't you understand? They were blown out. The game was over and he was playing heavy special teams minutes

The game was over first shot of the period

 

[CelticDruid]

The working theory is that the college dropouts who run pubic analytic sites are all related to him.

Lol

 

[zeke]

Lines with 5+ minutes / Pairs with 10+ minutes 5v5 so far:


1st Lines

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov: 24.4min, 50.0gf%, 24.3xgf%

Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 19.3min, 100.0gf%, 23.2xgf%
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner: 11.2min, 66.7gf%, 58.5xgf%

2nd Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli: 26.2min, 0.0gf%, 52.8xgf%

Nylander-Tavares-Kase: 11.3min, 0.0gf%, 64.2xgf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase: 7.1min, 0.0gf%, 44.4xgf%

3rd Lines

Hagel-Paul-Colton: 29.6min, 33.3gf%, 59.3xg%

Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall: 21.2min, 0.0gf%, 41.4xgf%
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander: 8.1min, 0.0gf%, 80.8xgf%

4th Lines

Maroon-Bellemare-Perry: 18.3min, 50.7gf%, 50.4xgf%

n/a (but all combos have largely been trash so far except in the few shifts that Engvall took on the 4th line)



1st Pairs

Hedman-Cernak: 34.9min, 62.7gf%, 76.7xgf%

Muzzin-Brodie: 46.1min, 67.3gf%, 58.1xgf%

2nd Pairs

McDonagh-Bogosian: 29.4min, 67.3gf%, 43.5xgf%
McDonagh-Cernak: 12.6min, 0.0gf%, 47.9xgf%
McDonagh-Foote: 12.2min, 0.0gf%, 58.8xgf%

Rielly-Lyubushkin: 41.6min, 26.0gf%, 39.6xgf%

3rd Pairs

Sergachev-Foote: 30.2min, 0.0gf%, 45.8xgf%

Giordano-Liljegren: 21.7min, 64.3gf%, 33.2xgf%
Giordano-Holl: 15.8min, 0.0gf%, 76.3xgf%

adding in shots, unblocked shot attempts, and total shot attempts just to flesh out the small samples here:


1st Lines

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov: 24.4min, 50.0gf%, 24.3xgf%, 28.6sf%, 32.8ff%, 46.2cf%

Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 19.3min, 100.0gf%, 23.2xgf%, 34.9sf%, 34.6ff%, 33.3cf%
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner: 11.2min, 66.7gf%, 58.5xgf%, 43.2sf%, 48.8ff%, 44.6cf%

2nd Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli: 26.2min, 0.0gf%, 52.8xgf%, 54.5sf%, 55.5ff%, 62.9cf%

Nylander-Tavares-Kase: 11.3min, 0.0gf%, 64.2xgf%, 64.9sf%, 58.8ff%, 47.4cf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase: 7.1min, 0.0gf%, 44.4xgf%, 40.9sf%, 46.8ff%, 34.0cf%

3rd Lines

Hagel-Paul-Colton: 29.6min, 33.3gf%, 59.3xg%, 52.3sf%, 56.6ff%, 55.9cf%

Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall: 21.2min, 0.0gf%, 41.4xgf%, 55.9sf%, 53.7ff%, 48.4cf%
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander: 8.1min, 0.0gf%, 80.8xgf%, 68.8sf%, 65.1ff%, 68.0cf%

4th Lines

Maroon-Bellemare-Perry: 18.3min, 50.7gf%, 50.4xgf%, 53.8sf%, 49.7ff%, 59.8cf%

n/a (but all combos have largely been trash so far except in the few shifts that Engvall took on the 4th line)



1st Pairs

Hedman-Cernak: 34.9min, 62.7gf%, 76.7xgf%, 58.2sf%, 60.9ff%, 66.4cf%

Muzzin-Brodie: 46.1min, 67.3gf%, 58.1xgf%, 58.7sf%, 58.7ff%, 53.2cf%

2nd Pairs

McDonagh-Bogosian: 29.4min, 67.3gf%, 43.5xgf%, 51.0sf%, 49.6ff%, 55.9cf%
McDonagh-Cernak: 12.6min, 0.0gf%, 47.9xgf%, 48.0sf%, 44.0ff%, 52.3cf%
McDonagh-Foote: 12.2min, 0.0gf%, 58.8xgf%, 47.6sf%, 48.0ff%, 53.2cf%

Rielly-Lyubushkin: 41.6min, 26.0gf%, 39.6xgf%, 39.0sf%, 41.6ff%, 37.9cf%

3rd Pairs

Sergachev-Foote: 30.2min, 0.0gf%, 45.8xgf%, 45.5sf%, 45.5ff%, 56.6cf%

Giordano-Liljegren: 21.7min, 64.3gf%, 33.2xgf%, 52.8sf%, 43.1ff%, 43.4cf%
Giordano-Holl: 15.8min, 0.0gf%, 76.3xgf%, 60.6sf%, 57.5ff%, 47.2cf%

 

[IPS]

Interesting numbers, and thank you.

Can anyone explain to me why Holl's xgf% is almost always high? Is it that he is generally good, but when he makes a mistake it is colossal? He fails the eye test every game for me... I just don't remember a player who looks so bad and has generally good advanced stats.

Probably because all the brain dead pinches he does leads to some events that crank up the xgf%.

He fails the eye test for you and many others because he is bad.

 

[Trapper]

It sure would be nice to have a loss where we at least feel like theres a chance of a comeback.

On the opther hand get blown out thoroughly by the half way point of the game means I can carry on with other aspects of my life

It doesn’t matter if you lose 1-0 or 10-0. The other team is still only credited with 1 win.
This is part of the killer instinct, intensity. Tampa answered game 4. Now how will we answer? The answer should be all out no prisoners. That’s winning mentality. Tampa isn’t better than us. Not at all. The killer instinct is in proving it.

 

[IPS]

Holl keeps creating momentum for TB. Switch out Holl for Liljegren. Liljegren is a +2 so far in this series.

The Giordano - Liljegren pairing has been great all season long, keep that pairing intact moving forward.

He didn't just create momentum last night - he created a 1-0 lead for Tampa the very first minute of the game.

 

[zeke]

He didn't just create momentum last night - he created a 1-0 lead for Tampa the very first minute of the game.

funny that nobody seems to notice that Gio also had a number of chances to clear that shift and couldn't.

also, Campbell really should have stopped that shot. it wasn't exactly a golden scoring chance.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Leafs need to dump the puck behind Tampa and forecheck. That’s it. It’s that simple.

It’s a grind style but it is effective.

 

[wingman75]

Probably because all the brain dead pinches he does leads to some events that crank up the xgf%.

He fails the eye test for you and many others because he is bad.

This actually makes sense... it's chaos when he is on the ice. He makes so many mistakes that he has to cover up for that he gets plusses on the xfg% side.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Interesting numbers, and thank you.

Can anyone explain to me why Holl's xgf% is almost always high? Is it that he is generally good, but when he makes a mistake it is colossal? He fails the eye test every game for me... I just don't remember a player who looks so bad and has generally good advanced stats.

Da only way i understand it is what my daughter who is an actuary with SunLife tells me (and she knows a tiny bit about hockey watching her brothers play) .. stats take a long time to develop, track and then create formulas properly so they become useful .. and it takes years to fully get things right .. even Dubie when speaking to some Brock kids at training camp in NF in his old department said current stats will likely get completely changed and much better in net 20 years as now 30% of game in his mind comes down to flat out luck .. for me I will wait da 20 years until they do a better job of understanding da game

 

[Apex Predator]

This actually makes sense... it's chaos when he is on the ice. He makes so many mistakes that he has to cover up for that he gets plusses on the xfg% side.

Wait so if a player causes mistakes it increases there xfg%?

 

[zeke]

This actually makes sense... it's chaos when he is on the ice. He makes so many mistakes that he has to cover up for that he gets plusses on the xfg% side.

Not what happens, though.

Regular season expected goals against per 60, Leafs D that played mostly top-4:

1. Brodie 2.23
2. Boosh 2.27
3. Holl 2.28
4. Muzzin 2.30
5. Rielly 2.52

These playoffs, all Leafs D (though admittedly Holl has had lighter bottom pair duty these playoffs):

1. Holl 1.67
2. Brodie 2.15
3. Muzzin 2.28
4. Giordano 2.57
5. Boosh 3.27
6. Rielly 3.28
7. Liljegren 4.11

 

[IPS]

funny that nobody seems to notice that Gio also had a number of chances to clear that shift and couldn't.

also, Campbell really should have stopped that shot. it wasn't exactly a golden scoring chance.

he did - yes, but it came down to Holl's dumb giveaway.

And don't tell me Campbell is already back to being a donkey in your books, even after what he pulled off to secure us game 3?

 

[wingman75]

Wait so if a player causes mistakes it increases there xfg%?

no no, but I assume if you are fixing your mistakes successfully you get point for that. So say, I turn the puck over and they other teams goes in on a breakaway, doesnt score, but I get back and throw a good check in the corner, recover the puck, and make a good outlet pass... not bad right, except, if I wasn't an idiot to being with none of that would have had to take place, especially the scoring chance against.

I've never been a fan of kudos for fixing your own mistake.

I am just theorizing... for clarity.

 

[sxvnert]

The way this series has been officiated (very good for NHL playoff standards), I wouldn't be surprised if neither Clifford or Simmonds dress again this series.

I'd always dress at least one of them to start a series though & then go from there.

Clifford, Simmonds and Holl should never see another second for the rest of this series.

 

[wingman75]

Not what happens, though.

Regular season expected goals against per 60, Leafs D that played mostly top-4:

1. Brodie 2.23
2. Boosh 2.27
3. Holl 2.28
4. Muzzin 2.30
5. Rielly 2.52

These playoffs, all Leafs D (though admittedly Holl has had lighter bottom pair duty these playoffs):

1. Holl 1.67
2. Brodie 2.15
3. Muzzin 2.28
4. Giordano 2.57
5. Boosh 3.27
6. Rielly 3.28
7. Liljegren 4.11

This puts new meaning to "numbers can lie". As always, and I have seen you say this, the numbers are to be used as a part of the data to make decisions about players. On their own, they could be misleading.

 

[zeke]

and again, this isn't really about advanced stats. plain old goals says the same thing.

Goals against per 60 Playoffs:

1. Muzzin 2.04
2. Brodie 2.07
3. Giordano 2.49
4. Holl 2.58
5. Liljegren 2.64
6. Rielly 3.20
7. Boosh 3.82


In fact the only goal Holl has been on for in the two games he's played is the one on that first shift last night - and while he (or any other leaf) didn't have a good shift there, that goal didn't exactly come off a golden scoring chance.

 

[Apex Predator]

no no, but I assume if you are fixing your mistakes successfully you get point for that. So say, I turn the puck over and they other teams goes in on a breakaway, doesnt score, but I get back and throw a good check in the corner, recover the puck, and make a good outlet pass... not bad right, except, if I wasn't an idiot to being with none of that would have had to take place, especially the scoring chance against.

I've never been a fan of kudos for fixing your own mistake.

I am just theorizing... for clarity.

Oh I see. Makes that stat misleading and not something we should be judging decisions on then.

 

[zeke]

he did - yes, but it came down to Holl's dumb giveaway.

And don't tell me Campbell is already back to being a donkey in your books, even after what he pulled off to secure us game 3?

Saying that he let in some questionable goals doesn't mean he's a donkey.

and the leafs were the better team in game 3. not sure what you're talking about there.

 

[IPS]

and the leafs were the better team in game 3. not sure what you're talking about there.

Lol no they absolutely were not. They got caved in insanely bad in the 2nd and 3rd periods.

In fact we saw quite a stark difference with the teams taking leads in games 3 and 4. Tampa keeps their foot on the gas, and the Leafs hang on by the skin of their teeth.

 

[zeke]

Lol no they absolutely were not. They got caved in insanely bad in the 2nd and 3rd periods.

In fact we saw quite a stark difference with the teams taking leads in games 3 and 4. Tampa keeps their foot on the gas, and the Leafs hang on by the skin of their teeth.

Leafs were easily the better team in game 3.

Your emotions are clouding your judgement.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

funny that nobody seems to notice that Gio also had a number of chances to clear that shift and couldn't.

also, Campbell really should have stopped that shot. it wasn't exactly a golden scoring chance.

some people like to analyze a hockey game by looking for the last mistake that Holl made, and blaming a goal against on that. People blame him for goals where he isn't even on the ice, because he gave up a shot in his previous shift or something