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Series Talk: Leafs Vs Lightning- Thunderstruck

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Who wins?

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Adjustments for game 5.
Get Liljegren back in for either Holl or Lyb. Even after today, I prefer Holl over Lyb. Lyb has struggled all series and that pair is getting crushed. As much as you need physicality, the main Leafs problem on defence has been puck moving. The defence you dressed today and last game is asking for trouble.
Here is what you should do and people won't like it.
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Gio-Lilly
I know seeing Muzzin-Holl together is a nightmare, but if use them situationally, I think it's fine and no excuse to have a bad matchup with last change which brings me to Keefe. He needs to mix his D men a lot more in situations in game than he has been doing. For example if it's a D zone faceoff, get Muzzin-Brodie out there. If it's O zone, do Rielly-Brodie/Liljegren.
With this lineup, if Keefe doesn't want Liljegren on the PK, give his minutes to Holl there.

Up front, I am leaving Kerfoot on the top line. I am seperating John and Willy. They don't work so so stop trying. Bring in Simmonds on the 4th line
 
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stickty111 said:
Adjustments for game 5.
Get Liljegren back in for either Holl or Lyb. Even after today, I prefer Holl over Lyb. Lyb has struggled all series and that pair is getting crushed. As much as you need physicality, the main Leafs problem on defence has been puck moving. The defence you dressed today and last game is asking for trouble.
Here is what you should do and people won't like it.
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Gio-Lilly
I know seeing Muzzin-Holl together is a nightmare, but if use them situationally, I think it's fine and no excuse to have a bad matchup with last change which brings me to Keefe. He needs to mix his D men a lot more in situations in game than he has been doing. For example if it's a D zone faceoff, get Muzzin-Brodie out there. If it's O zone, do Rielly-Brodie/Liljegren.
With this lineup, if Keefe doesn't want Liljegren on the PK, give his minutes to Holl there.

Up front, I am leaving Kerfoot on the top line. I am seperating John and Willy. They don't work so so stop trying. Bring in Simmonds on the 4th line
Click to expand...

Fully agree with the defensive usage. Lyubushkin has not been able to handle the puck well at all, and moving the puck slowly has killed us. He has actually been lucky that he hasn't been burned more.

I'd put Bunting back in the top 6. He has some points but I haven't been overly impressed by his play in the playoffs thus far. However, I think he can work well with Tavares and Marner. He can share grinding responsibilities with Tavares so Tavares can get more involved offensively, and Marner is performing well but Matthews hasn't matched up yet.

That means Kerfoot-Matthews-Nylander is the other line. Nylander and Kerfoot had chemistry from last playoffs and Matthews better be the least of our worries on that line. He has not performed well and he better be able to perform with that kind of talent.

Kase down to the 4th line, and then make a choice of Simmonds/Clifford coming in for one of Blackwell/Spezza. I think you keep Spezza in unless you feel like the energy is not there, because ultimately if you have a line with Kamikaze Kase and Simmonds/Clifford, you want to tire out the other line. Blackwell may fit better for that.

#1 thing right now is we need to get to pucks faster and we need better defensive cycle support from our wingers especially. We have been 2nd to pucks far too often the last 90 minutes, and when we have dominated, we were first on pucks. Same with getting pucks out... We are too passive. Defensemen are holding onto pucks too long and waiting for winger support that is simply not there. A lot of lobbing it to neutral ice, icing it, or turning it over waiting for that lack of support. Personnel is not going to change that really unless adding a guys like Simmonds/Clifford will get guys to move their legs more... I highly doubt that will be the case but a rotation to keep the energy up in the grinding roles is probably a thing that should happen anyways. They better not be taking stupid penalties though.

The way I am looking at it though is that we are 2-2 and we have yet to really receive more than one good game from our top guns besides maybe Marner. That is not good enough, and if we want to win, ultimately those guys need to step up. Nylander has been a turd, and Tavares has always been a guy who raises his linemates and polishes off their games. Polishing off a turd doesn't make it any better, and Tampa can just focus on shutting him down like Montreal did with Matthews when Marner and Hyman were turds. Matthews has had some bad luck but he has been far too invisible for a guy who is supposed to be a top player in the league. He is just another guy and we won't win with Matthews just being a guy.
 
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Adjustments? Surely you guys are kidding? We have abandoned, or sorry, Keefe has abandoned the whole season gameplan.

For five periods, we have been backing up, retreating. Who the f*** retreats against Tampa? I guess we now do.

I was delivering some food I prepared for an old woman and her sister during game three, she is a big buds fan. She was screaming at the set, and at Keefe. SHe asked me, have you seen how our team has gone from one foot from the other team, to suddenly being 30 feet away?

I said, finally someone who gets "it".

Weird thing is this, when that reporter asked about the worst D man on the team, Keefe didn't explode or react badly at all, instead, he replied cooly and I detected a smirk on his face, like he knows something we don't.

If I interpret that smirk correctly, the Leafs come out and go back to playing their A game.

Why did they abandon the winning strategy for five straight periods?

Have to ask Keefe, doubt you will get much of an answer.
 
TOR | TBL

2 Wins 2

All Situations

16 GF 14
14.48 xGF 13.01
88.3 sv% 87.5

5v5

156.5 TOI 156.5
8 GF 7
6.62 xGF 7.03
91.0 sv% 90.4

4v4

9.5 TOI 9.5
1 GF 0
0.33 xGF 0.16
100 sv% 83.3

5v4

27.1 TOI 37.1
2 GF 4
4.43 GF60 6.47
3.48 xGF 3.55
7.71 xGF60 5.74
9.5 sh% 14.8

0 GA 2
0.00 GA60 3.23
0.41 xGA 1.20
0.91 xGA60 1.94

5v3

0.6 TOI 1.6
1 GF 1
0.18 xGF 0.50
100 SH% 100

w/EN

5.1 TOI 2.5
0 GF 0
0.54 xGF 0.06
2 GA 2


​
 
mapleleafs34 said:
You can say whatever you want. But if someone said it would be a 3 game series with 2 games at home vs the defending champs, you'd take that all fu**ing day.

LFG!!!
Click to expand...
The regular season results already determined that 4 of the 7 games would be at home for Toronto, nothing has changed here in home ice advantage nor opponent. We knew we were playing TB and game #5 and #7 if needed would be played in TO. That was all written in stone prior to series start, and the results of the first 4 games never changed that.

Leaf fans that predicted and expected the Leafs would win in 4 or 5 games, certainly can't be happy with the results of this series so far where Leafs now must win 2 of the next 3 to stay alive,.

So what results does that leave after 4 games either the Leafs being up 3-1 in the series, which is certainly better >> and preferable to current 2-2 result and a best of 3 now. So that's not good.

So in essence what your saying is our Leafs didn't get swept, nor can they lose in 5 games now to the defending champs, so all things considered the worst case scenario now its down to a best of 3 and we'll take it, because after all, the better more preferred desirable options are now off the table as potential outcomes.

Leaf fans that expected a competitive 6 or 7 game series, now have the Leafs right where we thought they would be, only ideally being up 3-1 and not tied at 2-2 however. :wg:
 
zeke said:
TOR | TBL

2 Wins 2

All Situations

16 GF 14
14.48 xGF 13.01
88.3 sv% 87.5

5v5

156.5 TOI 156.5
8 GF 7
6.62 xGF 7.03
91.0 sv% 90.4

4v4

9.5 TOI 9.5
1 GF 0
0.33 xGF 0.16
100 sv% 83.3

5v4

27.1 TOI 37.1
2 GF 4
4.43 GF60 6.47
3.48 xGF 3.55
7.71 xGF60 5.74
9.5 sh% 14.8

0 GA 2
0.00 GA60 3.23
0.41 xGA 1.20
0.91 xGA60 1.94

5v3

0.6 TOI 1.6
1 GF 1
0.18 xGF 0.50
100 SH% 100

w/EN

5.1 TOI 2.5
0 GF 0
0.54 xGF 0.06
2 GA 2


​
Click to expand...
no offence man but people here try to watch the games and at a point in the playoff series where its 2-2 and a best of 3 remains no one really gives a you know what about what the goals for % is on each side.
 
ruaware41 said:
no offence man but people here try to watch the games and at a point in the playoff series where its 2-2 and a best of 3 remains no one really gives a you know what about what the goals for % is on each side.
Click to expand...

no offense man but people here like to talk about more than the fact that the series is tied 2-2.
 
Star Matchups

Matthews: 4gms, 19:44, 2gls (1pp), 6pts (2pp), 48.8xgf% (+2.1rel)
Point: 4gms, 19:54, 1gls (1pp), 2pts (2pp), 52.4xgf% (-1.3rel)

Marner: 4gms, 21:04, 2gls (0pp), 6pts (2pp), 44.4xgf% (-3.4rel)
Kucherov: 4gms, 19:19, 1gls, (1pp), 5pts (3pp), 41.6xgf% (-10.3rel)

Tavares: 4gms, 16:50, 0gls (0pp), 2pts (1pp), 47.3xgf% (+0.8rel)
Stamkos: 4gms, 18:18, 1gls (0pp), 2pts (1pp), 40.3xgf% (-7.8rel)

Nylander: 4gms, 16:53, 2gls (1pp), 2pts (1pp), 46.4xgf% (-2.2rel)
?

Rielly: 4gms, 21:17, 1gls (1pp), 4pts (2pp), 40.5xgf% (-6.5rel)
Hedman: 4gms, 24:06, 1gls (1pp), 6pts (2pp), 61.7xgf% (+13.6rel)

Campbell: 4gms, .889sv%, -1.58 GSAx
Vasilevskiy: 4gms, .888sv%, -1.34 GSAx



Hedman the one star that has really stepped up this series so far.
 
If the Leafs are going to win, it will be in 6. I don't think the players even believe in themselves to win a winner take all Game 7.
 
get kase away from jt and nylander. everytime puck got into the zone he threw it away to tampa player. they look ready to rock now. best of 3 will be easy if keefe plays the right guys and the right guys bring their best and dont have anchors bringing them down. kerfoot is an anchor on top line against tampa the competition is too high. bunting has to stay there and just hope he manages better.

i dont really know who to put with nylander and jt thats the problem. dont like kerfoot there either, this isn't montreal he's facing and galchenyuk is also not there to use his legs and hands beside nylander.

you ever hear expression you are only as strong as your weakest link? This is true against tampa. They are a good team who take scouting seriously. They will devise a plan to make sure puck has to go through the weakest link at points and kill plays.

Now that tampa started to try the depth guys looking more like columbus and montreal series except for when they're on the penalty kill or empty net. Time to shorten the bench/ ice time and ride the core players.
 
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ruaware41 said:
no offence man but people here try to watch the games and at a point in the playoff series where its 2-2 and a best of 3 remains no one really gives a you know what about what the goals for % is on each side.
Click to expand...
Yep, stats are entirely meaningless at this point.
 
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Scoring Distribution this series:


Screenshot_20220509-110002_Sheets.jpg



These are split it up into lines of talent, not actual lines since those get changed all the time. These are split by expectations coming into the series, not usage or performance so far. In the case of these two teams it's actually pretty straightforward who belongs where....the only real difficult call is which of Tavares or Willy is the 3rd top 3 forward....I went with Tavares based on position.

For reference heres the actual groupings:

Top3 F: Matthews/Marner/Tavares vs Point/Kucherov/Stamkos
2nd3 F: Nylander/Bunting/Kerfoot vs Killorn/Palat/Cirelli
3rd3 F: Kampf/Mikheyev/Engvall vs Paul/Hagel/Colton
Bot3 F: Kase/Blackwell/Spezza/Simmonds/Clifford vs Perry/Maroon/Bellemare/Nash

Top3 D: Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin vs Hedman/Sergachev/McDonagh
Bot3 D: Giordano/Holl/Lyubushkin/Liljegren vs Cernak/Bogosian/Rutta/Foote

ACC1224 said:
Yep, stats are entirely meaningless at this point.
Click to expand...

Stats describe what is happening on the ice. What is happening on the ice is entirely meaningful.
 
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zeke said:
Scoring Distribution this series:


View attachment 543235


These are split it up into lines of talent, not actual lines since those get changed all the time. These are split by expectations coming into the series, not usage or performance so far. In the case of these two teams it's actually pretty straightforward who belongs where....the only real difficult call is which of Tavares or Willy is the 3rd top 3 forward....I went with Tavares based on position.

For reference heres the actual groupings:

Top3 F: Matthews/Marner/Tavares vs Point/Kucherov/Stamkos
2nd3 F: Nylander/Bunting/Kerfoot vs Killorn/Palat/Cirelli
3rd3 F: Kampf/Mikheyev/Engvall vs Paul/Hagel/Colton
Bot3 F: Kase/Blackwell/Spezza/Simmonds/Clifford vs Perry/Maroon/Bellemare/Nash

Top3 D: Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin vs Hedman/Sergachev/McDonagh
Bot3 D: Giordano/Holl/Lyubushkin/Liljegren vs Cernak/Bogosian/Rutta/Foote



Stats describe what is happening on the ice. What is happening on the ice is entirely meaningful.
Click to expand...
I need to say the below so no one gets upset but this is a genuine curious question and not trying to stir the pot.

How does stats let us know that any Nylanders 2 goals in garbage time don’t really mean anything? It helps boost his numbers and the line comparison you are showing being even. We all know he’s not been good despite 2 goals in garbage yesterday that help boost his stats a bit.
 
Holl keeps creating momentum for TB. Switch out Holl for Liljegren. Liljegren is a +2 so far in this series.

The Giordano - Liljegren pairing has been great all season long, keep that pairing intact moving forward.
 
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It’s entirely psychological at this point. Boils down to how many A+ efforts do the Leafs have to give, and under what conditions can those be coaxed out of them?

Is it the pure desire to win and can they be the hungrier team when both teams really want it (Game 4 would suggest no).

Or do they put their best foot forward when they feel like they’ve been embarrassed previously? (Game 1, Game 3 and the mini comeback attempts in Game 2 and 4).
 
Apex Predator said:
I need to say the below so no one gets upset but this is a genuine curious question and not trying to stir the pot.

How does stats let us know that any Nylanders 2 goals in garbage time don’t really mean anything? It helps boost his numbers and the line you are showing being even. We all know he’s not been good despite 2 goals in garbage yesterday that help boost his stats a bit.
Click to expand...

I mean we could go through all the goals in the series and decide how meaningful each is. TB has had meaningless goals as well.

If you want to look at better numbers to judge actual performance, though, I would recommend score-adjusted xGF, which takes the score and time of game into account.
 
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It sure would be nice to have a loss where we at least feel like theres a chance of a comeback.

On the opther hand get blown out thoroughly by the half way point of the game means I can carry on with other aspects of my life
 
Lines with 5+ minutes / Pairs with 10+ minutes 5v5 so far:


1st Lines

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov: 24.4min, 50.0gf%, 24.3xgf%

Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 19.3min, 100.0gf%, 23.2xgf%
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner: 11.2min, 66.7gf%, 58.5xgf%

2nd Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli: 26.2min, 0.0gf%, 52.8xgf%

Nylander-Tavares-Kase: 11.3min, 0.0gf%, 64.2xgf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase: 7.1min, 0.0gf%, 44.4xgf%

3rd Lines

Hagel-Paul-Colton: 29.6min, 33.3gf%, 59.3xg%

Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall: 21.2min, 0.0gf%, 41.4xgf%
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander: 8.1min, 0.0gf%, 80.8xgf%

4th Lines

Maroon-Bellemare-Perry: 18.3min, 50.7gf%, 50.4xgf%

n/a (but all combos have largely been trash so far except in the few shifts that Engvall took on the 4th line)



1st Pairs

Hedman-Cernak: 34.9min, 62.7gf%, 76.7xgf%

Muzzin-Brodie: 46.1min, 67.3gf%, 58.1xgf%

2nd Pairs

McDonagh-Bogosian: 29.4min, 67.3gf%, 43.5xgf%
McDonagh-Cernak: 12.6min, 0.0gf%, 47.9xgf%
McDonagh-Foote: 12.2min, 0.0gf%, 58.8xgf%

Rielly-Lyubushkin: 41.6min, 26.0gf%, 39.6xgf%

3rd Pairs

Sergachev-Foote: 30.2min, 0.0gf%, 45.8xgf%

Giordano-Liljegren: 21.7min, 64.3gf%, 33.2xgf%
Giordano-Holl: 15.8min, 0.0gf%, 76.3xgf%
 
We have not played well for the last 4 periods.
Soup saved the 3rd game for us.
TB turned the heat and we didn't.
I when TB scored there 2nd goal in game 3 , I said to myself here we go . So set my pvr then watched it later, to my surprise we won . Not because of seller team defence.
We have stopped skating , I don't know why .
We have proved in the first 2 1/2 games that when we skate and cycle TB has a hard time with us.
 
We haven't played well the last 4 periods because (like always) our opponent adjusts and we keep doing the same stuff that doesn't work and abandon the play style that made us successful in the first place.
 
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