Series Talk: Leafs vs Bruins - 'ah shit here we go again' edition -- Full schedule post #933

[stickty111]

The Leafs defensively have been a story of 2 halves this season:

From Oct 1 - Jan 1:
2.77 xGA/60 - The 7th worst in the league (25th)
12.32 high danger chances against/60 - The 7th worst in the league (25th)

They were horrendous to start and it looked that way

From Jan 1 - Today:
2.48 xGA/60 - 13th in the league
10.52 high danger chances against/60 - 13th in the league

They are now a middling team defensively, not as good as they were last year but they have also hit another level offensively to counter that. It may not look pretty, and it isn't close to perfect, but they turned it around.

We will see what defense we get in the playoffs, if they can just be alright we can win

Aside from the obvious part of our stars coming through, we need our PP to come up huge, and our PK to be at least respectable.

 

[REALTALK81]

And the formula to beat Boston is the same. Their defense is prone to shrinking under a heavy forecheck. If average joes like the lot of us can see that, surely a large scouting/coaching staff can. Throw it in the corner and punish them. They’ll cough it up

The issue with that is the leafs don't have a heavy forecheck. There isn't a player on the top 6 that has the oppositions dmen afraid to take the hit. The same can't be said on our side. Liljegren, Brodie, Rielly, Timmins will be feasted on. Lyubushkin, McCabe, Edmondson and Benoit will fair better but they aren't exactly great at moving the puck in those situations either.

 

[stickty111]

Spreading our offense as in spliting up Matthews and Marner should help here. Bruins are stacking their top pair. I could see an arguement for Marner and Nylander with JT or seperating them. Whether it's the top line or the other stars, we need to go after the bottom 2 pairs.

 

[Mess]

I think internally they would consider themselves favourites over the Leafs, but not the Florida teams.

Reason why Boston believing their favourites Toronto, as opposed to Florida (who beat them last year) or TB (who have 2 recent Stanley Cups)

Toronto vs Boston head to head record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Last time Boston lost a playoff series to Toronto 1959.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's not meant to taken literally, but there's still a lot of truth there. And while an average goalie might win the cup, there's a good chance that that average goalie will play like a superstar in these playoffs.


I sure hope so. IMO making the playoffs with this roster is a given and thus, not an achievement of any kind. Winning a round would be nice and I understand that in theory we have a very good chance to do so, maybe 45% or whatever but considering our history, I'm having such a hard time picturing it.

This series doesn’t determine the success or failure of the season. All things considered, it’s already been a success, and they got the best possible match up in round one

 

[Rob Brown]

Last time Boston lost a playoff series to Toronto 1959.

The only years that this point is at all relevant for are 2018 and 2019 and even then neither team is the same. Who cares that the Leafs beat them in the 50s or lost in the decades after that lol.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

Reason why Boston believing their favourites Toronto, as opposed to Florida (who beat them last year) or TB (who have 2 recent Stanley Cups)

Toronto vs Boston head to head record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Last time Boston lost a playoff series to Toronto 1959.

Doesn't matter that all changes come playoff time. It'll be a hard fought series

 

[Nineteen67]

Reason why Boston believing their favourites Toronto, as opposed to Florida (who beat them last year) or TB (who have 2 recent Stanley Cups)

Toronto vs Boston head to head record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Last time Boston lost a playoff series to Toronto 1959.

Those are the outcomes, and none of that matters come Saturday. Boston should feel very confident that they can stop the Leafs core and get the entire team off their game and out of their comfort zone.

 

[ACC1224]

Reason why Boston believing their favourites Toronto, as opposed to Florida (who beat them last year) or TB (who have 2 recent Stanley Cups)

Toronto vs Boston head to head record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Last time Boston lost a playoff series to Toronto 1959.

Like @Rob Brown said, nothing matters before 2018

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think Shesterkin is the best chance for the elite goalie group to "reset" its dominance, so to speak. Helle is the best goalie in the game right now, but I'm not sure Winnipeg has the offense needed to win a Cup (although they have a good chance to beat Colorado in the first round). Carolina is once again betting on average goaltending, and there is no way that Bob repeats his performance from rounds two and three last year.

Don't forget that goalies are voodoo and you never know where the next surprise playoff performance will be comng from. Remember Murray winning cups with Pittsburgh? I'm pretty sure nobody saw that coming. Maybe Samsonov wins the Conn Smythe, stranger things have happened. Well OK maybe not, but maybe you get my point.

This series doesn’t determine the success or failure of the season. All things considered, it’s already been a success, and they got the best possible match up in round one

I suppose that as they're subjective terms, success/failure is in the eye of the beholder. If for you 10th overall is a success already no matter what happens in the playoffs that's fine, but is sure as hell isn't my POV.

Oops, you meant Boston I guess, my bad, sorry. Or did you? I'm confused, time to go for a walk and get some air. Cheers!

 

[Jojalu]

Other than the fourth line and a couple of other forwards sprinkled in the top 9, the Leafs forward group is really not build to forecheck / cycle / grind teams down.

They managed to beef up the defense this year but our top 6 especially is still very soft by and large.



52 minutes in penalties with Dallas lol

I wouldn't call Bertuzzi, Domi or McMann soft.

I would possibly not say JT is soft.

That is 4 out of the 6 top right there. Hardly soft.

I do agree however they don't really cycle the puck all that well. Tougher for sure and willing to get to the net, but not really a grinding style

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

By the end of game 2 I expect you will be feeling differently.

Let's hope!

 

[Nineteen67]

Don't forget that goalies are voodoo and you never know where the next surprise playoff performance will be comng from. Remember Murray winning cups with Pittsburgh? I'm pretty sure nobody saw that coming. Maybe Samsonov wins the Conn Smythe, stranger things have happened. Well OK maybe not, but maybe you get my point.


I suppose that as they're subjective terms, success/failure is in the eye of the beholder. If for you 10th overall is a success already no matter what happens in the playoffs that's fine, but is sure as hell isn't my POV.

Oops, you meant Boston I guess, my bad, sorry. Or did you? I'm confused, time to go for a walk and get some air. Cheers!

The Leafs.

 

[Mess]

Those are the outcomes, and none of that matters come Saturday. Boston should feel very confident that they can stop the Leafs core and get the entire team off their game and out of their comfort zone.

I give real props to GM Treliving for giving Leafs a chance to advance by bringing in and giving the Leafs a backbone and spine physically

Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Ryan Reaves, Connor Dewar and Dmen Simon Benoit, Joel Edmundson & Ilya Lyubushkin.

These are the kinds of players that will providing the pushback and making Boston lives more miserable and the types of playoff warriors and hopefully players that allow Leafs core 4 from being intimidated and nullified by physical play in this series.

On paper this is not a fair matchup particular in terms of goaltending sv% and GAA differential, but on the ice lets hope some of those Core 4 don't disappear and this becomes a close and hard fought series literally and physically.

 

[Mess]

Like @Rob Brown said, nothing matters before 2018

Sure, but the numbers provided head to head based on the results of the current 2023-24 series

Toronto vs Boston head to head 2023/24 record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Those of some of the concerning #'s from this season for me anyways that make Leafs look like vast underdogs in this one.

Biggest issue for me is Goaltending where Boston and Florida both had top 5 results in SV% and GAA and GSAx this year , where Toronto has received bottom 10 results in SV% and GAA.

 

[Fogelhund]

It's a funny team our Leafs. When we show up, play hard the full game, and play the way that we can, we can be competitive with anyone. When we forget the details, or give less than a whole effort, games like the last few happen.

Which team shows up against Boston... who knows?

 

[LeafsFan89]

I am concerned the lack of 100 pts for Willy and 70 goals for Matthews is going to affect their mental game. Also concerned with the injuries.

In any case, here... we... go.

 

[Fogelhund]

Sure, but the numbers provided head to head based on the results of the current 2023-24 series

Toronto vs Boston head to head 2023/24 record this year stats comparison.

Wins: Toronto 0 - Boston 4
Goals For: Toronto 7 - Boston 14
PP% : Toronto 9.41 % - Boston 30.5 %
SV%: Toronto .895 % - Boston .945 %

Those of some of the concerning #'s from this season for me anyways that make Leafs look like vast underdogs in this one.

Biggest issue for me is Goaltending where Boston and Florida both had top 5 results in SV% and GAA and GSAx this year , where Toronto has received bottom 10 results in SV% and GAA.

Of course, and Boston won the last three last year too.. but it's the playoffs, and what happened in the regular season, is often not that important.

2017/18 we won 3 of 4 matches against Boston, and then lost in the playoffs.
We had a 7-2-1 record against the Habs in 2020/21 and then lost in the playoffs.
We won 3 of 4 against Florida last year....

 

[Rob Brown]

I am concerned the lack of 100 pts for Willy and 70 goals for Matthews is going to affect their mental game. Also concerned with the injuries.

In any case, here... we... go.

I don't think it will - Auston's message was more or less 'so be it' and he sort of laughed/smiled about it.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I am concerned the lack of 100 pts for Willy and 70 goals for Matthews is going to affect their mental game. Also concerned with the injuries.

In any case, here... we... go.

I just don’t think it should. Everything resets. What’s the point of sulking about it? If they go deep, nobody will care what they did during the regular season. such a poor mindset to have if they dwell on those facts.

 

[ACC1224]

I am concerned the lack of 100 pts for Willy and 70 goals for Matthews is going to affect their mental game. Also concerned with the injuries.

In any case, here... we... go.

It's already forgotten.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Every game is going to be 2-1 or 3-2, and Tavares' face-off ability is going to create a lot of chances for the leafs, especially in the overtime games (of which I expect virtually every game in this series to be). Against a team like Florida he may struggle more, but worry about that in the second round, assuming Florida gets there.

Yes he takes draws for sure and then slides over to play da wall .. lets see how he does on Saturday night?

 

[Niagara Bill]

Damn... How did we finish with 102 points being this bad?

Talent...but teams win cups, and by the way 100 points is common. 10 over 100, 18 over 95. Nothing to bragg about..

 

[Mess]

Of course, and Boston won the last three last year too.. but it's the playoffs, and what happened in the regular season, is often not that important.

2017/18 we won 3 of 4 matches against Boston, and then lost in the playoffs.
We had a 7-2-1 record against the Habs in 2020/21 and then lost in the playoffs.
We won 3 of 4 against Florida last year....

This has to be or should be concerning and that is goaltending.

Save Percentage and Goals Against Average

VS.

& Goals Saved Above Expected

Hard to ignore this vastly difference in goalie performance heading into this series as this position is mission critical to playoff success IMO.

If one looked at those figures then Leafs chances of success realistically don't look very good and that doesn't even factor in Boston has home ice advantage in the Series.

 

[SprDaVE]

Talent...but teams win cups, and by the way 100 points is common. 10 over 100, 18 over 95. Nothing to bragg about..

It wasn't a brag but you talk like they have nothing going for them other then a few talented players. They did some good things. If I woke up from a 1 year coma and read your comment, I'd assume they were bottom 5 in the league.