Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[LeafEgo]

The very clear argument being made is that McDavid is more than (lol) 0.15 aav better than Matthews. He scored SEVENTY more points than Matthews last year.

Are there any players that score SEVENTY less points than Matthews but are considered only worth (lol) 0.15 aav less than Matthews? See how ridiculously silly your argument sounds in reverse?

McDavids value is suppressed, Mack and Pasta make better comparables to work up an appropriate price point.

Most stars aren't worth their pay relative to McDavid.

 

[Stephen]

I don't get Leafs fans defending the contract. I love the player, but let's call a spade a spade. The contract sucks because the previous GM and current Pres. were incompetent and gave him a 5 year deal. The same fans were defending 5 years since he signed that deal. Clearly they are full of shit.

I tend to think of Matthews current deal as a luxury item where we paid a luxury price, no sense in bemoaning the fact that we didn’t get it in Costco bulk.

 

[Fogelhund]

People need to stop talking in dollars. It's Cap hit %, at the time of signing.

McDavid is 16.67%
Matthews new contract is 15.87%
MacKinnon in 15.27%

Feel free to argue all you want based upon these comparables.

To me, four years of Matthews is perfect. He's who this team is built around, but he really hasn't accomplished much when it's most important, and it appears as though he's had multiple wrist issues. His overall game has greatly improved, and no question he's a star.. but he just went 0-26 against Florida. Small sample size for sure, but I don't want to be tied to this guy for eight years, if the past is any indicator of the future. If his wrist continues to be an issue, and he can't get things done in the playoffs, moving on from him is no issue with me... being tied to him for eight... that's a problem if he can't get it done sometime over the next 4-5 years. On the other hand, if he finds a playoff game, and some durability, I don't care much if the next contract is even greedier.

 

[francis246]

If it boils down to 12.5 vs 12.35, that's crazy. If McDavid is 12.5m, Matthews should be around 11-11.5 but these numbers fit with what my impression has been which that Matthews is overpaid, simple as that. He's a very good player, one of the best in the league when he's at his best but he's not on the same tier as McDavid and there should be roughly a 10% difference in their compensation. JMHO.

Or McDavid is severely underpaid which is the more reasonable answer.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Or McDavid is severely underpaid which is the more reasonable answer.

Maybe a bit of both. It's not easy to compare Matthews to McD or any other top players TBH cause the f***er only signed for 5 years instead of 8.

If he had that cap hit but committed to 8 years, I think I'd be OK with that but 5 years at that cap hit still seems like too much. JMHO.

 

[francis246]

The reality is McDavid will always get underpaid relative to his results/impact. In a hard cap system he will never make his value and others will be closer to him in cap percentage than they probably should be. At times ahead based on AAV.

McDavid is fully worth 20% but that deal cannot be made

Thank you, someone with common sense. McDavid’s value as an athlete exceeds well beyond what the salary cap will allow the oilers to pay him. He is always going to be underpaid. In reality Mcdavid is probably worth close to $20 million a season, some could argue more. But due to the restrictiveness of the cap he’ll never see that type of money.

Maybe a bit of both. It's not easy to compare Matthews to McD or any other top players TBH cause the f***er only signed for 5 years instead of 8.

If he had that cap hit but committed to 8 years, I think I'd be OK with that but 5 years at that cap hit still seems like too much. JMHO.

I think mcdavid is the true f***er, he should have signed a 5 year deal. I think both McDavid and Draisaitl would do 5 year deals if they could go back. Easily. Either way I don’t blame Matthews or McDavid or MacKinnon. Cap is too restrictive. There should be a flexible cap where teams can use a franchise tag to pay 1 homegrown superstar money and only a portion of that goes on the cap. That would be the best solution IMO.

 

[Zur En Arrh]

why doesnt M Tkachuk make 6M based on McDavids 12.5M?
why doesnt Mika Zibanejhad make 5M based on McDavids 12.5?
why doesn't ROR make 2M based on McDavids 12.5M?

you see how this argument goes..... NO ONE is negotiating off of McDavids contract. lol

so dumb

Why would they? The kid was dumb enough to sign for 8 AND take a pay cut... Hahaha..

 

[Throw More Waffles]

People need to stop talking in dollars. It's Cap hit %, at the time of signing.

McDavid is 16.67%
Matthews new contract is 15.87%
MacKinnon in 15.27%

It's cap% at time of signing in addition with total term.

Matthews cap% on his 2nd contract wasn't the problem. Term was the problem.

Jeez, what is this? 2018? Like, what is going on here?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think mcdavid is the true f***er, he should have signed a 5 year deal. I think both McDavid and Draisaitl would do 5 year deals if they could go back. Easily. Either way I don’t blame Matthews or McDavid or MacKinnon. Cap is too restrictive. There should be a flexible cap where teams can use a franchise tag to pay 1 homegrown superstar money and only a portion of that goes on the cap. That would be the best solution IMO.

LOL.

Yeah more flexibility would be nice. Course if we gave Matthews 17m or WE as our franchise guy, we might not be in the clear as then Paul would maybe ask for 15.95m.

 

[Mess]

It's cap% at time of signing in addition with total term.

Matthews cap% on his 2nd contract wasn't the problem. Term was the problem.

Jeez, what is this? 2018? Like, what is going on here?

Its amazing how people get so consumed on CH% and its the least accurate stat to rely on.

The CBA states that no one player can consume more than 20% of the teams Salary Cap ceiling. So if the CH% at time of signing < 20% & that only verifies its a valid CH%.

Take Matthews new deal as an example. That states Matthews has a CH% of 15.87 % signed on Aug 23,2023.

That CH% is based on $13,250,000 AAV / Cap Ceiling for 2023-24 of $ 83,500,000. BUT ...

Matthews is still under contract for next year at his current $11.634 mil AAV based on $83,500,00 Cap = that puts his real actual CH% of 2023-24 at 13.9% not 15.87 at time of signing.

Capfriendly even verifies that CH% for Matthews next year on each teams list and readjusts to represent actual in current season.

So here are the projected Cap Ceiling #'s for the next 3 years.

When Matthews new contract actually begins in 2024-25 season and the new Cap ceiling is projected to raise by +$4 mil from $83,500,000 to $87,500,000 his new calculated CH% of $13.25 mil / $87,500,000 = 15.43 % and then in 2025-26 projected Cap Ceiling + $4.5 mil up to $92 million and then at that point Matthews actual CH% would drop to 14.4 %.

Quoting Mathews CH% on his new contract signed a year early of 15.87 % is the greatest red herring and NEVER plays any part in Leafs actual Cap Ceiling calculation. Comparing it to others at time of signing and then not considering its changes each year where TERM (becomes the most important) because as the Salary Cap ceiling rises the CH% declines. Quoting a historical #'s makes no sense.

McDavid's contract at time of signing was 8 years term, that means his $12.5 mil AAV in 2024-25 = 14.28 C.H% and in 2025-26 = 13.59 C.H% (both lower than Matthews new cap hit %) and his original 16.77 C.H% signed years ago has no relevance in today's Salary Cap calculations or discussion as being relevent. The only thing it says is Connor use to make more $$ and take up a greater CH%, but now because Matthews term was only 5 years in length now he gets to make more money and has a higher CH%.

 

[Bomber0104]

Its amazing how people get so consumed on CH% and its the least accurate stat to rely on.

The CBA states that no one player can consume more than 20% of the teams Salary Cap ceiling. So the CH% at time of signing < 20% & that only verifies its a valid CH%.

Take Matthews new deal as an example. That states Matthews has a CH% of 15.87 % signed on Aug 23,2023.

View attachment 740150

That CH% is based on $13,250,000 AAV / Cap Ceiling for 2023-24 of $ 83,500,000. BUT ...

Matthews is still under contract for next year at his current $11.634 mil AAV based on $83,500,00 Cap = that puts his real actual CH% of 2023-24 at 13.9% not 15.87 at time of signing.

View attachment 740147

Cap friendly even verifies that CH% for Matthews next year on each teams list and readjusts to represent actual in current season.

So here are the projected Cap Ceiling #'s for the next 3 years.
View attachment 740149

When Matthews new contract actually begins in 2024-25 season and the new Cap ceiling is projected to raise by +$4 mil from $83,500,000 to $87,500,000 his new calculated CH% of $13.25 mil / $87,500,000 = 15.43 % and then in 2025-26 projected Cap Ceiling + $4.5 mil up to $92 million and then at than point Matthews actual CH% would drop to 14.4 %

Quoting Mathews CH% on his new contract signed a year early of 15.87 % is the greatest red herring and NEVER plays a part in Leafs actual Cap Ceiling calculation. Comparing it to others at time of signing and then not considered it changed each year where TERM (becomes the most important) because as the Salary Cap ceiling rises the CH% declines. Quoting a historical #'s makes no sense.

McDavid's contract at time of signing was 8 years term, that means his $12.5 mil AAV in 2024-25 = 14.28 C.H% and in 2025-26 = 13.59 C.H% (both lover than Matthews new cap hit %) and his original 16.77 C.H% signed years ago has not relevance in today's Salary Cap calculations.

I'd be very interested in seeing the average cap-percentage of Matthews and McDavid's 2nd contracts.

 

[Legion34]

Why, and who cares? Matthews has every opportunity to be an elite, top end player in his own right and take us to a championship. That’s really all that matters. Maybe he can close the gap again with McDavid this year. Maybe McDavid pulls ahead even more and starts dominating over Matthews in goal scoring.

I just don’t think hunting for unflattering comparisons is the best way to enjoy this player.

Mcdavid hasn’t either?

Why is the championship all that matters for Matthews. Not Mcdavid?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Mcdavid hasn’t either?

Why is the championship all that matters for Matthews. Not Mcdavid?

I think when you look at Toronto and Edmonton, Leon and McDavid hold up their end of the bargain in the post-season.

Toronto stars go MIA.

 

[pcruz]

I think when you look at Toronto and Edmonton, Leon and McDavid hold up their end of the bargain in the post-season.

Toronto stars go MIA.

You mean playing in a manner that both scores lots of goals and allows lots of goals against?

Or do you mean getting 1 point in the final 4 games of the last series and being a major anchor defensively while simultaneously putting the team on multiple penalty kill situations that result in goals against?


Doesn't sound like "holding up the end of the bargain" to me.


See how stupid and pedantic these kinds of arguments can get?

Matthews goes pointless, but does everything else you could ask for from a 1st line player - blocking shots, dishing hits, taking hits to make plays, creating scoring opportunities, getting tons of shots on goal.


If, as some people will argue tooth and nail, this is a results oriented business and league, then Matthews and McDavid have achieved the exact same in their careers, albeit Matthews has played in 1 less season comparatively.

One cannot diminish one player's career for lack of team success, and laud another in spite of that same lack of success.

Well, one could. But that type of person is what society calls a hypocrite.


And Leafs nation is absolutely stock full of such hypocritical people.

 

[Legion34]

I think when you look at Toronto and Edmonton, Leon and McDavid hold up their end of the bargain in the post-season.

Toronto stars go MIA.

None have won championships

Heck they have been swept and missed the playoffs 2 or 3 times

 

[Stephen]

Mcdavid hasn’t either?

Why is the championship all that matters for Matthews. Not Mcdavid?

Firstly. McDavid’s offense doesn’t normally go dry in the playoffs. Secondly, unless he becomes a Leaf one day I couldn’t care less if he never won a cup. We really ought to refocus on Matthews and stop looking at McDavid.

 

[ToneDog]

Firstly. McDavid’s offense doesn’t normally go dry in the playoffs. Secondly, unless he becomes a Leaf one day I couldn’t care less if he never won a cup. We really ought to refocus on Matthews and stop looking at McDavid.

They shit on McD because he has not won a cup. At the same time they don't give MacKinnon credit for winning a cup. That goes to Makar. LOL.

 

[Stephen]

They shit on McD because he has not won a cup. At the same time they don't give MacKinnon credit for winning a cup. That goes to Makar. LOL.

It is actually kind of funny that Mackinnon gets no credit or mention for a cup in all these comparables.

Matthews just needs to get back to his 2021-22 scoring levels and start making a playoff legacy. All the reputational stuff will take care of itself.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You mean playing in a manner that both scores lots of goals and allows lots of goals against?

Or do you mean getting 1 point in the final 4 games of the last series and being a major anchor defensively while simultaneously putting the team on multiple penalty kill situations that result in goals against?


Doesn't sound like "holding up the end of the bargain" to me.


See how stupid and pedantic these kinds of arguments can get?

Matthews goes pointless, but does everything else you could ask for from a 1st line player - blocking shots, dishing hits, taking hits to make plays, creating scoring opportunities, getting tons of shots on goal.


If, as some people will argue tooth and nail, this is a results oriented business and league, then Matthews and McDavid have achieved the exact same in their careers, albeit Matthews has played in 1 less season comparatively.

One cannot diminish one player's career for lack of team success, and laud another in spite of that same lack of success.

Well, one could. But that type of person is what society calls a hypocrite.


And Leafs nation is absolutely stock full of such hypocritical people.

It’s rare for McDrai to have a bad series. But it does happen.

On the other hand….

It’s rare for Matthews/Marner to have a GOOD series. But it does happen.

 

[Sypher04]

It is actually kind of funny that Mackinnon gets no credit or mention for a cup in all these comparables.

Matthews just needs to get back to his 2021-22 scoring levels and start making a playoff legacy. All the reputational stuff will take care of itself.

I maintain cups are a team accomplishment. They are nice to have, they are what everyone wants, but they don’t dramatically change the way we rank or compare players individually.

I agree with you second statement

 

[WTFMAN99]

You mean playing in a manner that both scores lots of goals and allows lots of goals against?

Or do you mean getting 1 point in the final 4 games of the last series and being a major anchor defensively while simultaneously putting the team on multiple penalty kill situations that result in goals against?


Doesn't sound like "holding up the end of the bargain" to me.


See how stupid and pedantic these kinds of arguments can get?

Matthews goes pointless, but does everything else you could ask for from a 1st line player - blocking shots, dishing hits, taking hits to make plays, creating scoring opportunities, getting tons of shots on goal.


If, as some people will argue tooth and nail, this is a results oriented business and league, then Matthews and McDavid have achieved the exact same in their careers, albeit Matthews has played in 1 less season comparatively.

One cannot diminish one player's career for lack of team success, and laud another in spite of that same lack of success.

Well, one could. But that type of person is what society calls a hypocrite.


And Leafs nation is absolutely stock full of such hypocritical people.

None have won championships

Heck they have been swept and missed the playoffs 2 or 3 times

Firstly. McDavid’s offense doesn’t normally go dry in the playoffs. Secondly, unless he becomes a Leaf one day I couldn’t care less if he never won a cup. We really ought to refocus on Matthews and stop looking at McDavid.

They shit on McD because he has not won a cup. At the same time they don't give MacKinnon credit for winning a cup. That goes to Makar. LOL.

Really they should because in 2 seasons, McDavid produces as much as Matthews in 3.

McDavid has hit conference finals 2 times, Sundin, Gilmour and Clark are beloved for such feats.

Individually, McDavid laps Matthews in hardware too.

I blame the GM(s) of Edmonton for failing to surround McDavid with a decent team more than I would blame McDavid.

 

[Stephen]

Really they should because in 2 seasons, McDavid produces as much as Matthews in 3.

McDavid has hit conference finals 2 times, Sundin, Gilmour and Clark are beloved for such feats.

Individually, McDavid laps Matthews in hardware too.

I blame the GM(s) of Edmonton for failing to surround McDavid with a decent team more than I would blame McDavid.

I look at a successful Matthews career vs a successful McDavid career like this: Patrick Kane was never the player Sidney Crosby was, made money money than Crosby, but also carved out his own Hall of Fame career and most crucially won as many Stanley Cups (and had 3-1 lead at a point in time).

 

[WTFMAN99]

I look at a successful Matthews career vs a successful McDavid career like this: Patrick Kane was never the player Sidney Crosby was, made money money than Crosby, but also carved out his own Hall of Fame career and most crucially won as many Stanley Cups (and had 3-1 lead at a point in time).

If Matthews ends the cup drought, he goes down as a legend.

 

[egd27]

I'd be very interested in seeing the average cap-percentage of Matthews and McDavid's 2nd contracts.

Over the first 8 years of each contract(s) (using historical actuals and the next 3 years projections)

Mc David's 8 years would avg. 14.9%

Matthews 5+3 would avg 14.3%

 

[Stephen]

If Matthews ends the cup drought, he goes down as a legend.

Yep, the mission never changed.