Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[81Leafs50]

It is not a fact.

His Capfriendly "valuation" was over 16%. The amount the he actually "took" from the Oilers never exceeded 15.7% of the available cap.

regardless. Matthews cap % was 14.27 and will be 15.2 on the new deal. NEVER as high as McDavids 15.7

 

[Dekes For Days]

One would hard pressed to argue against it. Slightly more relevance? I beg to differ, the most recent season is the most relevant by far.
Let me break it down to age/contract groups for the sake of the argument.
It's clearly used as the most relevant year when evaluating young players on ELC and RFA contracts - here the most recent seasons' (what you call sample) relevance compared to other years increase even more- it's the most relevant for prospects progressing the same with players sucking ass. Compare it to next to last year for fun.
You'll be surprised to find that this shit is even worse for older players! One bad season and they call you old and won't resign, kind of ignoring your ELC years - focusing on recent sample season once again baby. Do the same with next to last season. Who cares how good your season was two years ago? You're clearly too old this year and you're not getting younger.
Agree with the rest, All data needs to be evaluated both the most recent and all previous years, his packing order on Leafs (from a certain standpoint it doesn't matter how good Nylander is unless he is top 3 guy on this team) and so on.

Seasons beyond the most recent are considered in every type of signing. Consistency and proving yourself beyond a single-season sample is important. There is expected progression built in to all post-ELC contracts, and there is expected regression built in to all contracts that include declining years, but that doesn't change the importance of using the preceding sample and how and why their production progressed to inform what will happen moving forward. Obviously this doesn't mean using ELC years for somebody in their mid-30s. You need to strike a balance between too small a sample and too long ago.

For every player that has a big season and continues at that level, there's 20 others that have a big season and drift back to their previous normal. One big season or partial season or one bad season or partial season doesn't mean you get paid like that type of producer, especially if it's not matched with a shift in the underlying metrics, or it's a result of some external factor. You need only take a quick glance through contract history to see this.

 

[81Leafs50]

Yes on original signing date of their 2nd contracts only was your statement true,

Not sure what your misunderstanding ... IF both McDavid and Matthews contracts were both of equal length of 8 years then it would be mathematically impossible for Matthews @ $11.634 mil AAV to pass McDavid at 12.5 mil AAV and since CH% is calculated and based on a Players AAV / NHL Salary Cap ceiling, however the Salary Cap Ceiling is variable and either flat or increasing that changes the players impact each season.

But CH% gets adjusted with each new contract when a players new AAV is calculated, so following next year in 2024-25 when McDavid is still under contract for $12.5 mil and Matthews new contract is at $13.25 mil then Matthews consumes more of the teams total max Salary Cap which is a players Cap Hit %.

Here currently are top players Cap Hits for 2024-25 season making Auston Matthews the highest paid CH% player in the game.

View attachment 739566

PS. A players actual Cap Hit = AAV (average annual value).

The most McDavid got paid was 15.72% of the cap. In 2018-19 the cap was $79,500,000 and he was paid $12,500,000.

Matthews current contract was 14.28% at its maximum and the new contract will be 15.14% of the expected cap next year.

Over the 7 years where their contracts overlap. McDavid will make $87,500,000 and Matthews will now make $84,701,250.

Over the first 8 years of their post ELC contracts which are staggered because McDavid is older, McDavid will make $100,000,000 and Matthews we now know will make $97,951,250.

Those are the facts.

Matthews cap % was 14.27 and will be 15.2 on the new deal. NEVER as high as McDavids 15.7. Its very simple actually.

 

[Arzak]

Seasons beyond the most recent are considered in every type of signing. Consistency and proving yourself beyond a single-season sample is important. There is expected progression built in to all post-ELC contracts, and there is expected regression built in to all contracts that include declining years, but that doesn't change the importance of using the preceding sample and how and why their production progressed to inform what will happen moving forward. Obviously this doesn't mean using ELC years for somebody in their mid-30s. You need to strike a balance between too small a sample and too long ago.

For every player that has a big season and continues at that level, there's 20 others that have a big season and drift back to their previous normal. One big season or partial season or one bad season or partial season doesn't mean you get paid like that type of producer, especially if it's not matched with a shift in the underlying metrics, or it's a result of some external factor. You need only take a quick glance through contract history to see this.

I agree. Obviously, it would be foolish not to take into consideration all data albeit with different relevance levels.

With that in mind, I was merely reacting to you downplaying the relevance of the most recent season. If you were limited to data from a single season, the last one would be by far the best indicator of what's coming, compared to any other year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I agree. Obviously, it would be foolish not to take into consideration all data albeit with different relevance levels.
With that in mind, I was merely reacting to you downplaying the relevance of the most recent season. If you were limited to data from a single season, the last one would be by far the best indicator of what's coming, compared to any other year.

I wasn't really downplaying the relevance of the most recent season. I was pointing out the horrible methodology an individual was using - picking out exclusively a raw goal total from the most recent season and comparing it to an injured player's total from that season to try and form a contract, while ignoring everything else and everything prior. And while you're correct that if you were limited to data from one season, the most recent would - at least on average - be the most representative, it's not really ever the case that we only have one season of data, and expanding that sample by another year or two will almost always be a better indicator.

 

[81Leafs50]

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

Matthews is always taking less than McDavid. ALWAYS. Some people just see a number and overreact without thinking it through.

 

[Gary Nylund]

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

Matthews is always taking less than McDavid. ALWAYS. Some people just see a number and overreact without thinking it through.

If it boils down to 12.5 vs 12.35, that's crazy. If McDavid is 12.5m, Matthews should be around 11-11.5 but these numbers fit with what my impression has been which that Matthews is overpaid, simple as that. He's a very good player, one of the best in the league when he's at his best but he's not on the same tier as McDavid and there should be roughly a 10% difference in their compensation. JMHO.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

regardless. Matthews cap % was 14.27 and will be 15.2 on the new deal. NEVER as high as McDavids 15.7

McDavid got SEVENTY more points than Matthews last year. He shouldn’t be even a SNIFF of McDavids cap percentage. EVER.

In 2024/25 and 25/26 Matthews will have a higher cap percentage than McDavid. It’s a flat out atrocity.

Imagine a forward got SEVENTY less points than Matthews (that’s about 15 total points) and then some crazy person argued that “well his cap percentage is 0.4% lower than Matthews…. So it’s a good deal.”

Like, what on earth is going on here?

 

[egd27]

regardless. Matthews cap % was 14.27 and will be 15.2 on the new deal. NEVER as high as McDavids 15.7

Nor should it have been.

I do find it interesting that over the 8 years of their respective deals (8 for CM. 5+3 for AM) the cumulative cap % are 14.9% and 14.3%.

*using projections for 24, 25, 26 seasons

Shows the team advantage of the longer term.

 

[rocketman588]

The value isn't terrible but with AM we will be getting like maybe 2/3 years at a discounted value since his second deal.

If you look at other superstars they have fair years, discounted years and overpaid years ( like the last few years of the hawks deal) I don't think we're ever going to have overpaid Auston but it is frustrating that we'll never have underpaid AM while the oilers, avs, bruins are all getting a lot of value years for their stars.

Mcdavid will get paid more then him in two years but my assumption is AM gets even more then that at 31 unless he collapses hockey wise. So while he may deserve his deal we never are getting any extra value from him compared to the rest of the leagues stars. Which is especially frustrating considering the deal that he got after his ELC showed tremendous loyalty to him as a player.

Marner unfortunately is on the other end of the spectrum. So far we have gotten possibly one year where he was worth what he's getting paid maybe 2?

That contract never gave us any value as he is still the second highest LW in the game years after the deal (with the first being a 60 goal scorer who was on an insane value deal after the ELC).

He's the one that you need to hold a line with because he's arguably making more then market value for the player that he is even now in year 5 of his deal. I would argue that he's not even worth a pay rise, but anything over 12 mil and less then 5/6 years is a failure for the leafs


Most NHL deals in the cap have been structured to give value at the end of the deal. Unfortunately we're the only ones that have not received this value. The gulf is only going to get bigger as we pay our guys more with this contract and guys like Hughes make 4/6 mil a year less then them as the cap goes up and up. Imagine if we had AM for 8 at his current number ( which was something that would have been fair imo) we would be getting great value at this point despite the early risk which is what you want.

 

[ToneDog]

The value isn't terrible but with AM we will be getting like maybe 2/3 years at a discounted value since his second deal.

If you look at other superstars they have fair years, discounted years and overpaid years ( like the last few years of the hawks deal) I don't think we're ever going to have overpaid Auston but it is frustrating that we'll never have underpaid AM while the oilers, avs, bruins are all getting a lot of value years for their stars.

Mcdavid will get paid more then him in two years but my assumption is AM gets even more then that at 31 unless he collapses hockey wise. So while he may deserve his deal we never are getting any extra value from him compared to the rest of the leagues stars. Which is especially frustrating considering the deal that he got after his ELC showed tremendous loyalty to him as a player.

Marner unfortunately is on the other end of the spectrum. So far we have gotten possibly one year where he was worth what he's getting paid maybe 2?

That contract never gave us any value as he is still the second highest LW in the game years after the deal (with the first being a 60 goal scorer who was on an insane value deal after the ELC).

He's the one that you need to hold a line with because he's arguably making more then market value for the player that he is even now in year 5 of his deal. I would argue that he's not even worth a pay rise, but anything over 12 mil and less then 5/6 years is a failure for the leafs

If he shits the bed the next two playoffs, I'd let him walk if he won't accept a trade or he makes us an offer we can't refuse. Resign JT for $5m or less if he hasn't completely fallen off the cliff and we should be out of cap hell. What we do not know is whether Willie will be a Leaf at that time.

 

[ToneDog]

McDavid got SEVENTY more points than Matthews last year. He shouldn’t be even a SNIFF of McDavids cap percentage. EVER.

In 2024/25 and 25/26 Matthews will have a higher cap percentage than McDavid. It’s a flat out atrocity.

Imagine a forward got SEVENTY less points than Matthews (that’s about 15 total points) and then some crazy person argued that “well his cap percentage is 0.4% lower than Matthews…. So it’s a good deal.”

Like, what on earth is going on here?

I don't get Leafs fans defending the contract. I love the player, but let's call a spade a spade. The contract sucks because the previous GM and current Pres. were incompetent and gave him a 5 year deal. The same fans were defending 5 years since he signed that deal. Clearly they are full of shit.

 

[81Leafs50]

If it boils down to 12.5 vs 12.35, that's crazy. If McDavid is 12.5m, Matthews should be around 11-11.5 but these numbers fit with what my impression has been which that Matthews is overpaid, simple as that. He's a very good player, one of the best in the league when he's at his best but he's not on the same tier as McDavid and there should be roughly a 10% difference in their compensation. JMHO.

LMAO Matthews haters.

Highest career goals per game: NHL history
Mike Bossy 0.76
Mario Lemieux 0.75
Pavel Bure 0.62
Auston Matthews 0.62

ALSO....

 

[81Leafs50]

Nor should it have been.

I do find it interesting that over the 8 years of their respective deals (8 for CM. 5+3 for AM) the cumulative cap % are 14.9% and 14.3%.

*using projections for 24, 25, 26 seasons

Shows the team advantage of the longer term.

there is no advantage. Matthews was taking up 14.64 % of the cap and he got a modest bump to 15.2% of cap which is a 500k difference on the AAV. Matthews is not taking more than McDavid. its simple math.

 

[Gary Nylund]

LMAO Matthews haters.

Highest career goals per game: NHL history
Mike Bossy 0.76
Mario Lemieux 0.75
Pavel Bure 0.62
Auston Matthews 0.62

ALSO....

1)
Saying Matthews should make about 10% less than McDavid doesn't make anyone a hater, in fact saying he should make about 90% of what McDavid makes is a compliment.

2)
There's more to player assessment than looking at goals they score. The fact that you're reducing the discussion to the one thing that Matthews does best shows that your bias.

Do better.

 

[81Leafs50]

Nor should it have been.

I do find it interesting that over the 8 years of their respective deals (8 for CM. 5+3 for AM) the cumulative cap % are 14.9% and 14.3%.

*using projections for 24, 25, 26 seasons

Shows the team advantage of the longer term.

math is simple.

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

 

[notDatsyuk]

As an addendum to my last post about power play time.

Ranked since 2016/17, when comparing player time on ice during the power play in a given season, Matthews's best season sits 137th among all players in the NHL.

In 2022/23, Matthews ended the season with 268:17 TOI on the power play.

His second highest pp toi season sits ranked 413th highest in the NHL since 2016/17 ( 2021/22 with 225:45 total time on ice on the power play).



That's the best goal scorer in the NHL folks. A player who very infrequently is given power play time on the ice for his career when compared with other top end players.

Where do others fall on the list you could wonder - Only going to list instances with more pp toi than the best season Matthews ever had:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Ovechkin : 1st (366:21 minutes), 2nd (357:21), 4th (344:51), 5th (343:41), 12th (332:32), 35th (305:21)
Draisaitl: 21st (317:48), 33rd (306:56), 113th (274:20), 115th (273:00)
McDavid: 17th (321:53), 48th (297:52)
Pastrnak: 25th (314:26)

Not disputing or agreeing with anything, but:

PP time on ice is weird, because the better you are at it, the less time you get.

Look at two teams that each get ten PP opportunities:

Team A scores on four, in an average of 30 seconds - total PP ice time is 14 minutes.
Team B scores on four, in an average of 60 seconds - total PP ice time is 16 minutes.

Team A scores on four, in an average of 60 seconds - total PP ice time is 16 minutes.
Team B scores on two, in an average of 60 seconds - total PP ice time is 18 minutes.

 

[81Leafs50]

1)
Saying Matthews should make about 10% less than McDavid doesn't make anyone a hater, in fact saying he should make about 90% of what McDavid makes is a compliment.

2)
There's more to player assessment than looking at goals they score. The fact that you're reducing the discussion to the one thing that Matthews does best shows that your bias.

Do better.

why doesnt M Tkachuk make 6M based on McDavids 12.5M?
why doesnt Mika Zibanejhad make 5M based on McDavids 12.5?
why doesn't ROR make 2M based on McDavids 12.5M?

you see how this argument goes..... NO ONE is negotiating off of McDavids contract. lol

so dumb

 

[Throw More Waffles]

math is simple.

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

The very clear argument being made is that McDavid is more than (lol) 0.15 aav better than Matthews. He scored SEVENTY more points than Matthews last year.

Are there any players that score SEVENTY less points than Matthews but are considered only worth (lol) 0.15 aav less than Matthews? See how ridiculously silly your argument sounds in reverse?

 

[egd27]

math is simple.

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

well let's use 8 years for both

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 3 yrs @ $13.25M = $12.24M AAV x 8 years


By taking the 5+4 approach, Matthews closed the cumulative AAV (after the first 8 years) from $886K where it was initially, to only $257K.

Had McDavid taken the same approach, he would have received a raise starting this season, and the AAV gap would have been at least maintained if not increased. Therefore it seem pretty evident that the Oilers received a financial advantage by signing McDavid to the maximum 8 year term.

 

[Gary Nylund]

why doesnt M Tkachuk make 6M based on McDavids 12.5M?
why doesnt Mika Zibanejhad make 5M based on McDavids 12.5?
why doesn't ROR make 2M based on McDavids 12.5M?

you see how this argument goes..... NO ONE is negotiating off of McDavids contract. lol

so dumb

This isn't a negotiation, it's a discussion.

so dumb

The very clear argument being made is that McDavid is more than (lol) 0.15 aav better than Matthews. He scored SEVENTY more points than Matthews last year.

Are there any players that score SEVENTY less points than Matthews but are considered only worth (lol) 0.15 aav less than Matthews? See how ridiculously silly your argument sounds in reverse?

I'm guessing the answer is no.

The obtuseness in this place is boggles the mind sometimes.

 

[CDN24]

McDavid 8 yrs @ $12.5M AAV
Matthews 5yrs @ $11.634M + 4yrs @ $13.25M = $12.35222M AAV x 9 years

Matthews is always taking less than McDavid. ALWAYS. Some people just see a number and overreact without thinking it through.

His point totals are always lower than Mcdavid too. The only thing the are comparable on is salary, Matthews is a great player but McDavid is on a whole other level

 

[Sypher04]

His point totals are always lower than Mcdavid too. The only thing the are comparable on is salary, Matthews is a great player but McDavid is on a whole other level

The reality is McDavid will always get underpaid relative to his results/impact. In a hard cap system he will never make his value and others will be closer to him in cap percentage than they probably should be. At times ahead based on AAV.

McDavid is fully worth 20% but that deal cannot be made

 

[AvroArrow]

If it boils down to 12.5 vs 12.35, that's crazy. If McDavid is 12.5m, Matthews should be around 11-11.5 but these numbers fit with what my impression has been which that Matthews is overpaid, simple as that. He's a very good player, one of the best in the league when he's at his best but he's not on the same tier as McDavid and there should be roughly a 10% difference in their compensation. JMHO.

I agree with this. Except I would add, McDavid should be taking more than what he's getting. $12.5M, is absolute robbery for him. He should be in the $14M range.

Mackinnon is earning more than him as well.

 

[ToneDog]

I agree with this. Except I would add, McDavid should be taking more than what he's getting. $12.5M, is absolute robbery for him. He should be in the $14M range.

Mackinnon is earning more than him as well.

McDavid and Draisaitl are bargains because they got 8 years (Pasta and MacK are going to be bargains halfway into their new contracts). They'd all be even bigger bargains if the cap rose the last few years. Hence why we get screwed when Matty took 5 years. I just hope they do not let Marner f*** them again in two years.