Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4 years, $3.5M AAV)

[Stephen]

Averaged 15:26 a night in the playoffs - that's bottom pairing minutes.

In the playoffs, he spent 228:28 with Kulikov. Just 44:22 with Montour.

Check out his utilization in October and November when Ekblad and Montour were both rehabbing:

 

[Dekes For Days]

Check out his utilization in October and November when Ekblad and Montour were both rehabbing:
View attachment 893078

Reminiscent of when Barrie stepped up into big minutes and an increased role through our injuries in 19/20.

 

[BertCorbeau]

OEL is the new Giordano. Just at a higher cost. One more year of JT and then the leafs can fix many problems. This is a write off year and not much can be expected from this lot.

I mean Gio was 37 when he joined the Leafs and OEL is 32

At 32, Gio had a 20 goal, 50+ point season

 

[phillipmike]

I mean Gio was 37 when he joined the Leafs and OEL is 32

At 32, Gio had a 20 goal, 50+ point season

Not to mention OEL didn’t cost you two 2nds and a 3rd.

I would have prefer other D that signed but I’m intrigued by the gamble.

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

Can he still play? Will he be a plus addition at the very least?

 

[Maple Leaf]

Can he still play? Will he be a plus addition at the very least?

I'm not sure might be a pylon but a gamble to be sure

 

[HockeyVirus]

Never gets old as soon as a player is a Leaf they are either washed or overrated. We could trade Kampf for McDavid and people would say Mcdavid is good but over rated

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

OEL is the new Giordano. Just at a higher cost. One more year of JT and then the leafs can fix many problems. This is a write off year and not much can be expected from this lot.

As long as Matthews is here there is no such thing as a write off year

 

[Puckstuff]

Risky move, he's all and all a has-been who found a good, yet sheltered role as a puck moving bottom pair defenceman. Even the majority of Panthers fans state he did well in the role.

Brad then gave him 3.5m per and is expecting more? Its risky, its not Klingberg bad, because well.. Klingberg sucked for 4 years before he signed here. OEL is a mixed bag.

So he's playing with McCabe on the 2nd pair? Risky. My guess is he'll look really good some nights and really bad on others. The leafs sound like they are going to over-extend him.

Paying OEL 3.5m and Lilly 3.0m is terrible cap management. One is a bottom pairing defenceman and the other one hasn't even proved he's capable of being a regular NHLer.

I think every signing should be judged by the risk to upside return ratio.

Domi - Low risk, high return potential
Tanev - Medium risk, high return potential.
Stolarz - Low risk, medium return potential.
OEL - High risk, medium return potential.

The first 3 are great. But OEL is by far the highest risk signing IMO. We are taking on a high risk signing for a guy with #4/#5 upside at best. He will also be a little bit harder to LTIR then Tanev if things go south. But if the leafs feel they can send him to the Island if his play drops off in year 3 and 4, then the risk is lower. But I feel like this is as a high risk as it gets, given his history of taking his foot off the gas after getting paid. He also seems to have his best years during contract years.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Never gets old as soon as a player is a Leaf they are either washed or overrated. We could trade Kampf for McDavid and people would say Mcdavid is good but over rated

Well, other than the speed, dangles, goals, and assists they’re basically the same player.

On OEL, I think he will be a better player here than he will get credit for.

 

[Roo]

I think every signing should be judged by the risk to upside return ratio.

Domi - Low risk, high return potential
Tanev - Medium risk, high return potential.
Stolarz - Low risk, medium return potential.
OEL - High risk, medium return potential.

The first 3 are great. But OEL is by far the highest risk signing IMO. We are taking on a high risk signing for a guy with #4/#5 upside at best. He will also be a little bit harder to LTIR then Tanev if things go south. But if the leafs feel they can send him to the Island if his play drops off in year 3 and 4, then the risk is lower. But I feel like this is as a high risk as it gets, given his history of taking his foot off the gas after getting paid. He also seems to have his best years during contract years.

How is the OEL signing high risk? It’s only 3y @ 3.5m. In fact I would argue the return potential is high given he has the potential to qb our pp and lead our defence in goals and points. Outside of Rielly our D has been an offensive abyss. This seems like a low risk signing that can greatly help in this area.

Don’t get me wrong, things obviously may not work out that way, but this isn’t some albatross contract that will handcuff us.

 

[Puckstuff]

How is the OEL signing high risk? It’s only 3y @ 3.5m. In fact I would argue the return potential is high given he has the potential to qb our pp and lead our defence in goals and points. Outside of Rielly our D has been an offensive abyss. This seems like a low risk signing that can greatly help in this area.

Don’t get me wrong, things obviously may not work out that way, but this isn’t some albatross contract that will handcuff us.

OEL is 4 years.

 

[Gaberd2608]

OEL is 4 years.

He is probably better than any other option. Even Edmonson cost more. Lilly is getting $3 million and has done pretty minimal imo to justify that amount.

$3.5 million for a #5 defenseman with some upside is probably market value. He was also willing to come to Toronto u like most other people.

Rielly-Tanev
McCabe-Benoit/Hakanpaa
OEL-Lilly

^^^ I prefer this to last season. I think some upside and Tanev us probably best partner Rielly has played with in ages.

OEL may stabalize Lilly. McCabe may want too much money so OEL may need to replace McCabe and look like a steal.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I think every signing should be judged by the risk to upside return ratio.

Domi - Low risk, high return potential
Tanev - Medium risk, high return potential.
Stolarz - Low risk, medium return potential.
OEL - High risk, medium return potential.

The first 3 are great. But OEL is by far the highest risk signing IMO. We are taking on a high risk signing for a guy with #4/#5 upside at best. He will also be a little bit harder to LTIR then Tanev if things go south. But if the leafs feel they can send him to the Island if his play drops off in year 3 and 4, then the risk is lower. But I feel like this is as a high risk as it gets, given his history of taking his foot off the gas after getting paid. He also seems to have his best years during contract years.

I think OEL is more of a high risk/high reward in my mind.

If he doesn't pan out, $3.5M isn't a ton of space with a rising cap but every dollar counts when your stars squeeze you for every penny. The main reason I think it's a higher risk is the term, as I don't trust the NHL to not screw up the LTIR rules in the next CBA. Same goes for Tanev.

However, if he does pan out, it might just be the new dynamic our PP needs.



Could be wishful thinking, but I feel like Stolarz is going to be way better than we all expect.

 

[ponder]

Can he still play? Will he be a plus addition at the very least?

IMO yes, as long as you don't give him too big of a role.

He had a rough year in Vancouver in 2022/23, I think it was fair to call him a liability there, but then had a good season with Florida in 2023/24 in a reduced role, where he was certainly a positive contributor. In Florida he was the 5D (5th in TOI/GP in both the regular season and playoffs, behind Montour, Forsling, Ekblad and Mikkola), while in Vancouver he was the 4D, behind Hughes, Hronek and Myers. Fewer minutes and easier minutes in Florida, for sure.

Toronto have a pretty structured and strong team defence, more similar to Florida than Vancouver, that'll be good for him. I think if we keep him to the bottom pairing, he's likely to be a quality 5D for us. If we try to use him on the 2nd pairing, could be sketchier. IMO our best pairings are likely to be:

Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe
OEL - Liljegren

And I think OEL could do well in that setup. Both OEL and Lily are somewhat "jack of all trades, master of none" types, but OEL sides more towards offensive specialist, while Lily sides more towards defensive specialist, I think it could work nicely. Should be a bottom pair that is really strong against weaker competition, drives possession and breakouts, but could be a bit sketchy if matched up against top offensive competition.

I also think he plays on at least PP2, and maybe we experiment with him on PP1 as well, see how he fits there vs. Rielly.

He's not totally washed like Klingberg is/was, he was very healthy last year and playing well. As long as we don't try to give him too much defensive responsibility he should be a positive contributor for us. 4x$3.5 is a bit much and a bit risky IMO, but it has a chance to work out, unlike the Klingberg signing, where he was clearly done.

 

[Puckstuff]

I think OEL is more of a high risk/high reward in my mind.

If he doesn't pan out, $3.5M isn't a ton of space with a rising cap but every dollar counts when your stars squeeze you for every penny. The main reason I think it's a higher risk is the term, as I don't trust the NHL to not screw up the LTIR rules in the next CBA. Same goes for Tanev.

However, if he does pan out, it might just be the new dynamic our PP needs.



Could be wishful thinking, but I feel like Stolarz is going to be way better than we all expect.

A high return (meaning he vastly outperforms his contract) would mean he's a #3-#4 D for 3-4 years at 3.5 million. That seems like a very, very unlikely scenario.

I think a fair return for 3.5 million would mean he's a #4-#5 D and he plays to his contract. Which is more or less what I'm expecting in year 1 and 2.

However, I think the likely case is he's a decent #5 D for 1-2 years, where he's paid fairly. And then in year 3 and 4 he drops off and he's not worth the money. That's why I think this carries risk. The risk is he's only worth the money for potentially 1 or 2 years, and he's below average for the last 2 years. There's also risk he's not even a #5 in year 1 and then we have him for 4 years.

So the upside is low, and the risk is high imo.

However in year 1, the deal has an ok chance of working out. I think there’s a fairly decent chance he can carry his form of being a #5 D in Florida into the same for Toronto.

 

[Commander Clueless]

A high return (meaning he vastly outperforms his contract) would mean he's a #3-#4 D for 3-4 years at 3.5 million. That seems like a very, very unlikely scenario.

I think a fair return for 3.5 million would mean he's a #4-#5 D and he plays to his contract. Which is more or less what I'm expecting in year 1 and 2.

However, I think the likely case is he's a decent #5 D for 1-2 years, where he's paid fairly. And then in year 3 and 4 he drops off and he's not worth the money. That's why I think this carries risk. The risk is he's only worth the money for potentially 1 or 2 years, and he's below average for the last 2 years. There's also risk he's not even a #5 in year 1 and then we have him for 4 years.

So the upside is low, and the risk is high imo.

Even strength I would agree, but I think Powerplay might make things interesting.

Years 3-4 might be a cap dump. It's certainly possible.

 

[Stephen]

I mean Gio was 37 when he joined the Leafs and OEL is 32

At 32, Gio had a 20 goal, 50+ point season

Gio also won a Norris Trophy at 36, so that should bode well for the last year of the OEL deal if the prophecy proves to be true...

 

[RoadWarrior]

Reminiscent of when Barrie stepped up into big minutes and an increased role through our injuries in 19/20.

OEL isn’t Tyson Barrie lol

 

[Balthazar]

Never gets old as soon as a player is a Leaf they are either washed or overrated.

Sorry but he was already like that back in his last 2 years Arizona. It has nothing to do with the Leafs.

 

[Kurtz]

Sorry but he was already like that back in his last 2 years Arizona. It has nothing to do with the Leafs.

Wasn't he injury plagued at the end in Arizona? He was also playing heavy minutes on bad teams - not unusual for a dman to look bad in that setting. Looked much better on a good team last year.

 

[IPS]

This guy's the wildcard of the FA acquisitions no doubt. 32 is not old at all for a D, and it's not uncommon for D to randomly regain form in their early-mid thirties. In a perfect world he blows the doors off and steals Rielly's PP1 spot in camp, from his highlights I do like his shooting ability from the point

 

[Petrus]

IMO yes, as long as you don't give him too big of a role.

He had a rough year in Vancouver in 2022/23, I think it was fair to call him a liability there, but then had a good season with Florida in 2023/24 in a reduced role, where he was certainly a positive contributor. In Florida he was the 5D (5th in TOI/GP in both the regular season and playoffs, behind Montour, Forsling, Ekblad and Mikkola), while in Vancouver he was the 4D, behind Hughes, Hronek and Myers. Fewer minutes and easier minutes in Florida, for sure.

Toronto have a pretty structured and strong team defence, more similar to Florida than Vancouver, that'll be good for him. I think if we keep him to the bottom pairing, he's likely to be a quality 5D for us. If we try to use him on the 2nd pairing, could be sketchier. IMO our best pairings are likely to be:

Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe
OEL - Liljegren

And I think OEL could do well in that setup. Both OEL and Lily are somewhat "jack of all trades, master of none" types, but OEL sides more towards offensive specialist, while Lily sides more towards defensive specialist, I think it could work nicely. Should be a bottom pair that is really strong against weaker competition, drives possession and breakouts, but could be a bit sketchy if matched up against top offensive competition.

I also think he plays on at least PP2, and maybe we experiment with him on PP1 as well, see how he fits there vs. Rielly.

He's not totally washed like Klingberg is/was, he was very healthy last year and playing well. As long as we don't try to give him too much defensive responsibility he should be a positive contributor for us. 4x$3.5 is a bit much and a bit risky IMO, but it has a chance to work out, unlike the Klingberg signing, where he was clearly done.

You are making feel a bit better with this signing.

 

[IPS]

Toronto have a pretty structured and strong team defence, more similar to Florida than Vancouver, that'll be good for him. I think if we keep him to the bottom pairing, he's likely to be a quality 5D for us. If we try to use him on the 2nd pairing, could be sketchier. IMO our best pairings are likely to be:

Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe
OEL - Liljegren

Rielly - Tanev should be good in theory but Tavev's injury history is concerning. Benoit - McCabe you hope can continue off from last year as a good cost effective pairing that you can burden with the 60%+ defensive zone starts. OEL - Lilly is where my concerns would be, To maximize OEL's game I don't think Liljegren is the guy for that.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

OEL stinks.

Even before seeing him play a single game for the Leafs I already know this to be true. He's been washed up for years. A poor man's Klingberg who himself was a poor man's Karlsson.

With a little wheeling and dealing they could have the real thing.

Leafs fans don't want a three time Norris trophy winner on their team though. He's too old and injury prone. They'd much rather have a player like Chris Tanev instead.

Some people even celebrated when OEL was signed.

So hard to believe Treliving gave this no compete bottom pairing coatail riding scrub a four year deal with $3.5M AAV. This is a bad deal for the team. Not a franchise crippling mistake mind you.

But added on top of all the other diapers on the fire and it stinks.