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GDT: Leafs @ Islanders 1/11/24 7PM

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Rare Jewel said:
In his last 4 games, he's played over 15 minutes, and in the last two, over 17; not exactly bottom-pairing minutes, is it?

In the two prior wins (Pit and CBJ) to this California run, he was over 17 minutes again. Maybe there is something to it?

Anyway, it doesn't take much around here to ruffle people around here.
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He also missed time for the fight and injury with his hand, plus last night.
 
Rare Jewel said:
Sure, the D as it stands, though, is still half comprised of guys who would be best suited to the 5th, 6th, or 7th D spots. IMO, even McCabe is probably best suited outside of the top 4 (depends on the partner).

So with that and Brodie sort of waning as well as Liljegren trying to take a top 4 spot firmly, it makes Benoit ascending and I'll be careful here, to just outside of the top 4, even more stark. Particularly for a team considered to be one of the best.
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No question, we ideally add 2 quality RHD that bump Brodie down, if not off the team entirely (trade for cap and assets), as well as drop Gio down to 7th.

Benoit as 3LHD has been very good and exactly what we need from him at this point.

We already saw with Holl what happens when you play above your head in the lineup and it needs to be avoided with Benoit as well.
 
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The big 4 being put back into their most effective groupings is a big part of the reason the Leafs have been playing much better as of late. I know there is a few folks out there that think the opposite but once again, here are the stats so far this season:

Tavares/Marner:
xGF%: 44.31
Goal differential: 49.24

Matthews/Nylander:
xGF%: 50.38
Goal differential: 53.62

Matthews/Marner:
xGF%: 53.29
Goal differential: 59.36

Tavares/Nylander:
xGF%: 59.67
Goal differential: 56.72


Getting Lily and Gio back from injury has, of course, made a massive difference over playing AHLers too. We should certainly be looking into getting another body on D though.
 
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The Islanders seem to be in a bit of a freefall, so probably a good time to play them. Might even be facing their third-stringer in net as they might want to give Sorokin a night off.
 
Zybalto said:
The big 4 being put back into their most effective groupings is a big part of the reason the Leafs have been playing much better as of late. I know there is a few folks out there that think the opposite but once again, here are the stats so far this season:

Tavares/Marner:
xGF%: 44.31
Goal differential: 49.24

Matthews/Nylander:
xGF%: 50.38
Goal differential: 53.62

Matthews/Marner:
xGF%: 53.29
Goal differential: 59.36

Tavares/Nylander:
xGF%: 59.67
Goal differential: 56.72


Getting Lily and Gio back from injury has, of course, made a massive difference over playing AHLers too. We should certainly be looking into getting another body on D though.
Click to expand...
I know this isn't the way these are supposed to work, but if you just add them together by player, it seems to show, similar to the eye test, who's the weak and strong link both offensively and defensively.

xGF:
Tavares 44.31+59.67= 103.98
Marner 44.31+53.29= 97.60
Matthew 50.38+53.29= 103.67
Nylander 50.38+59.67= 110.05

Goal differential:
Tavares 49.24+56.72= 105.96
Marner 49.24+59.36= 108.60
Matthews 53.62+59.36= 112.98
Nylander 53.62+56.72= 110.34

Added together:
Tavares 103.98+105.96= 209.94
Marner 97.60+108.60= 206.20
Matthews 103.67+112.98= 216.65
Nylander 110.05+110.34= 220.39
 
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Jamason said:
I know this isn't the way these are supposed to work, but if you just add them together by player, it seems to show, similar to the eye test, who's the weak and strong link both offensively and defensively.

xGF:
Tavares 44.31+59.67= 103.98
Marner 44.31+53.29= 97.60
Matthew 50.38+53.29= 103.67
Nylander 50.38+59.67= 110.05

Goal differential:
Tavares 49.24+56.72= 105.96
Marner 49.24+59.36= 108.60
Matthews 53.62+59.36= 112.98
Nylander 53.62+56.72= 110.34

Added together:
Tavares 103.98+105.96= 209.94
Marner 97.60+108.60= 206.20
Matthews 103.67+112.98= 216.65
Nylander 110.05+110.34= 220.39
Click to expand...
Here’s to hoping they keep it going
 
Rare Jewel said:
Sure, the D as it stands, though, is still half comprised of guys who would be best suited to the 5th, 6th, or 7th D spots. IMO, even McCabe is probably best suited outside of the top 4 (depends on the partner).

So with that and Brodie sort of waning as well as Liljegren trying to take a top 4 spot firmly, it makes Benoit ascending and I'll be careful here, to just outside of the top 4, even more stark. Particularly for a team considered to be one of the best.
Click to expand...

So by depth you actually mean the exact opposite, the upper end outside Rielly sucks.
 
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Tough building to play in for the Leafs. Theyre on a heater that I expect to continue for at least another week.
 
Nineteen67 said:
Tough building to play in for the Leafs. Theyre on a heater that I expect to continue for at least another week.
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I think the Leafs will run the board the next three games (they seem to always do well against Colorado at home), but I can see some challenging games against Edmonton and Vancouver next week.
 
Jamason said:
I know this isn't the way these are supposed to work, but if you just add them together by player, it seems to show, similar to the eye test, who's the weak and strong link both offensively and defensively.

xGF:
Tavares 44.31+59.67= 103.98
Marner 44.31+53.29= 97.60
Matthew 50.38+53.29= 103.67
Nylander 50.38+59.67= 110.05

Goal differential:
Tavares 49.24+56.72= 105.96
Marner 49.24+59.36= 108.60
Matthews 53.62+59.36= 112.98
Nylander 53.62+56.72= 110.34

Added together:
Tavares 103.98+105.96= 209.94
Marner 97.60+108.60= 206.20
Matthews 103.67+112.98= 216.65
Nylander 110.05+110.34= 220.39
Click to expand...

Yea, not really how its supposed to work but fun to add up anyways.

I was hard on Nylander earlier in the year but this is certainly his best, most complete season by far and I hope he brings it into the playoffs The fact he's been a better defensive player so far this season has been a very pleasant surprise and helps me get over the fact his new caphit is higher than I wanted.

I'm unsure how much the return of Liljegren and Gio plays into these numbers as well with those two really being a massive upgrade on the AHLers we were playing coincided with the team looking far better but I would think we go out and grab another solid D before the playoffs to make sure we don't have to play a Marlie in the playoffs if we get into injury issues again.

It was a rough start to the season for sure (at least when it comes to underlying numbers) but things have stabilized back to when the Leafs have been the last few years:

Oct/Nov:
All Situations xGF%: 18th in the NHL
All Situations GF%: 16th in the NHL


Dec. 1st to now:
All Situations xGF%: 4th in the NHL
All Situations GF%: 7th in the NHL

It's just great the Leafs were able to grab extra points early on when they were dealing with sorting out the new additions to the lineup/injury issues/goaltending issues.
 
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Evilhomer said:
I think the Leafs will run the board the next three games (they seem to always do well against Colorado at home), but I can see some challenging games against Edmonton and Vancouver next week.
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They've been known to win in Western Canada and probably will again. After that is when it’ll get concerning.
 
Zybalto said:
Yea, not really how its supposed to work but fun to add up anyways.

I was hard on Nylander earlier in the year but this is certainly his best, most complete season by far and I hope he brings it into the playoffs The fact he's been a better defensive player so far this season has been a very pleasant surprise and helps me get over the fact his new caphit is higher than I wanted.

I'm unsure how much the return of Liljegren and Gio plays into these numbers as well with those two really being a massive upgrade on the AHLers we were playing coincided with the team looking far better but I would think we go out and grab another solid D before the playoffs to make sure we don't have to play a Marlie in the playoffs if we get into injury issues again.

It was a rough start to the season for sure (at least when it comes to underlying numbers) but things have stabilized back to when the Leafs have been the last few years:

Oct/Nov:
All Situations xGF%: 18th in the NHL
All Situations GF%: 16th in the NHL


Dec. 1st to now:
All Situations xGF%: 4th in the NHL
All Situations GF%: 7th in the NHL

It's just great the Leafs were able to grab extra points early on when they were dealing with sorting out the new additions to the lineup/injury issues/goaltending issues.
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It's almost as if the people who telling everyone to calm down and wait during the early part of the season were correct. After beating the Islanders tonight, the Leafs will be on pace for 107 points. Pretty close to that 110 mark.

Nineteen67 said:
They've been known to win in Western Canada and probably will again. After that is when it’ll get concerning.
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Which games are you referring to? After they play Winnipeg twice, they have the Islanders, Dallas, St. Louis (2x), Philly, Anaheim. Maybe you are referring to the stretch after that where they have Vegas twice, Boston twice, in Colorado, etc. The interesting part about that stretch is that it is right around the trade deadline.
 
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Evilhomer said:
It's almost as if the people who telling everyone to calm down and wait during the early part of the season were correct. After beating the Islanders tonight, the Leafs will be on pace for 107 points. Pretty close to that 110 mark.
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It feels like this happens almost every year too. The injuries only compounded it.

The usual suspects get really really active on here almost cheerleading early season kinks and then disappear when things go back to normal.

I mean, chances are that even guys like Brodie will regulate back to solid play now that we arnt playing half an AHL Dcore anymore and he doesnt have double the PK time of anyone on the team.
 
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