zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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Confirmed with Link: Leafs go 4-4-1 in expansion, Dermott, Kerfoot, McCann, exposed
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PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
Leafs played against CBJ and Montreal in the last 2 playoffs. Not the teams known for their offense. Context matters when throwing numbers to make a point
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Dermott has lost value year over year and he's making to much for a bottom pair on this team and Kerfoot's contract is extremely onerous for what he provides and could be better spent
I have zero problem getting McCann, I have a problem with getting him, not protecting him and being forced to keep inferior players to him
Jesus I hope there is some sort of understanding they take Kerfoot
OVO16
#WeTheNorth
- Apr 16, 2017
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Justin Holl wishes he was Cernak
Isaac Nootin
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- Sep 28, 2017
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hamzarocks
Registered User
The leafs got elite goaltending for the most part from Campbell from a statistical perspective giving a .930+ (Andersen also gave the same versus the Jackets but let in some bad goals in games 3 and 5). Our goalies giving us a .930+ is not likely in future first-round series versus our expected opponents (Boston, Tampa, and Flordia). Leafs goals against was down due versus us because:
1) They are a below-average offensive team and don't have high-end talent. We did a good job in games 1 to 4 in limiting any offensive zone weaknesses which could lead to rush opportunities for them. We failed to do this in games 5-7
2) We got Vezina level goaltending in games 1 to 4 with Campbell having allowed only 4 goals in 4 games and the team as a whole rolling along. MAF/Lehner and Hellybuck imploded vs the habs with horrible back-breaking goals being let in during those series (Anderson on Fleury was in game 3 I believe for example)
3) Leafs were the habs first opponent. They were playing as expected versus us early on and played like the worst playoff team in the past 15 years. Once they beat us, they found a lot more confidence and had better shooting luck and conversion on the chances they generated. WPG was terrible and got outplayed heavily, but the series with VGK came down to Price being all world while VGK having bad goaltending, and the habs shooters finishing chances they didn't versus us.
Playing well defensively against the Habs and CBJ in the past two years is not conclusive that the defense is elite and that Holl is a player who can lead the charge on the shut down pair (That is Muzzin whenever he isn't injured)
Next year whichever of Tampa, Boston, Flordia we end up playing will be much more skilled and have better offensive stars and powerplays. The goals against numbers won't be as flattering with our goalies save % returning to .915-.920 level. Leafs won't be winning series by shutting down those teams, they'll need offensive contributions from the stars and enough defense + goaltending to allow for the offense (which should be our primary strength) to do its job
OVO16
#WeTheNorth
- Apr 16, 2017
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zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
This year:
McD/Cernak: 57.4gf%, 56.2xgf%
Muzzin/Holl: 58.2gf%, 55.1xgf%
Last year:
McD/Cernak: 54.7gf%, 53.3xgf%
Muzzin/Holl: 54.7gf%, 57.5xgf%
Both used in very similar tough topline matchup roles.
I think we should have gone with 7-3-1. I like Holl but I am not going to like his next contract so you may as well let Seattle take him. Holl really slowed down towards the end of the season and without Muzzin, I am not sure he's a top four D on this team.
Edit: Never mind, Holl has another 2 years at 2M before he's UFA. That kind of value is too good to give up for the Leafs.
Fingers crossed that the Kraken pick Dermott. I really want Kerfoot and McCann both on the team.
Edit: Never mind, Holl has another 2 years at 2M before he's UFA. That kind of value is too good to give up for the Leafs.
Fingers crossed that the Kraken pick Dermott. I really want Kerfoot and McCann both on the team.
hamzarocks
Registered User
H
Hallinder = 2nd round pick
The posters claim is not false. If we actually did end up paying the price we did just to ensure Kerfoot/Holl are not taken by Seattle it was a dumb decision made by a GM who is not willing to adapt and is focused on keeping his group of players together in a desperate attempt to show he can build a winner (despite three years worth of evidence showing the contrary)
Kerfoot is replaced via UFA for less than 3.5M --> Bozak, Brassard, Haula, Bonino, etc.
Holl is replaced via internal/UFA (2.5M so about 500k more) --> Lilijgren, Dermott, Savard, Jason Demers, Ian Cole, Oleksiak
Hallinder was a second-round draft pick, in the Kapanen deal people were considering him worth around a 2nd round pick. saying we got the 15th pick + 2nd rounder (Hallinder), his season under the leafs organization did not lower his value.
Hallinder = 2nd round pick
The posters claim is not false. If we actually did end up paying the price we did just to ensure Kerfoot/Holl are not taken by Seattle it was a dumb decision made by a GM who is not willing to adapt and is focused on keeping his group of players together in a desperate attempt to show he can build a winner (despite three years worth of evidence showing the contrary)
Kerfoot is replaced via UFA for less than 3.5M --> Bozak, Brassard, Haula, Bonino, etc.
Holl is replaced via internal/UFA (2.5M so about 500k more) --> Lilijgren, Dermott, Savard, Jason Demers, Ian Cole, Oleksiak
Mickey Marner
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Isaac Nootin
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- Sep 28, 2017
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Ya I agree. This is the first sign of desperation that I have seen from this management group. It lacks foresight beyond this year and I really just hope this is not a sign of what's to come. Despite having the worst possible end to the season imaginable we actually were set up very nicely for the next couple years. We can debate all we want if Matthews and Marner have what it takes to be the guys to get it done, but in terms of asset management we were well positioned to make considerable runs. we have a well stocked cupboard of *potential* NHL caliber, low AAV deals that we have yet to tap into with Robby, Lilly, Sandin, amirov, holmberg, and Anderson. To me, Hallander was a player that really made sense for the 2022-23 season. He would have had 1 more year left on his current deal and likely not to perform to a level that would see him demand much of a raise thereafter. All reports is that he is a very strong 2-way forward that tracks favorably to a bottom six role in the NHL. He fit the vision to a tee, but yes it would not pay dividends until at least 2022-23, which as you stated might not fit the current management's timeline. The very first time they have shown such immediacy and lack of future consideration in an offseason deal IMO. It reeks of desperation. I guess we will have to see how everything pans out, but the thought of losing McCann in the expansion would really piss me off, because it was essentially throwing Hallander away for nothing.
The whole “it’s like we only lost Hallander” thing is such a “in a vacuum” explanation.
We acquired Jared McCann. He’s a member of our roster. He’s easily our fifth best forward. He’s easily more valuable than Justin Holl, who we protected.
If Seattle takes Jared McCann, then we’ve had a brutal mismanagement of the expansion draft, and lost a member of our roster greater than what we needed to be.
I think Kyle Dubas has more positives than negatives as General Manager. I think odds are whoever we hire next, will likely do a worse job.
However, this is a brutal brutal miscalculation
We acquired Jared McCann. He’s a member of our roster. He’s easily our fifth best forward. He’s easily more valuable than Justin Holl, who we protected.
If Seattle takes Jared McCann, then we’ve had a brutal mismanagement of the expansion draft, and lost a member of our roster greater than what we needed to be.
I think Kyle Dubas has more positives than negatives as General Manager. I think odds are whoever we hire next, will likely do a worse job.
However, this is a brutal brutal miscalculation
Ya there is absolutely an element of truth to this. I would not put aside a hand shake agreement by any means. Especially with Hakstol's close ties to the Leafs. But at the end of the day it is a business, and Seattle is in the drivers seat right now. All is fair in love and war
hamzarocks
Registered User
And his value hasn't decreased since then. He is closer to being NHL ready now than any 2nd rounder we draft in 2021 or 2022. In a rental TD type deal he'd be valued around a 2nd.
I'm fine with trading him to get McCann, that is a good move on Dubas's part. What doesn't make sense is making that move so that you can protect three inferior players to McCann in Kerfoot/Holl/Dermott.
Leafs had options in UFA to replace Holl/Kerfoot. Getting an LW who can give 45-50 points in the top 6 at 2.9M won't be simple. We would be better off letting Seattle choose between Kerfoot/Holl/Dermott. Any of those three go out and we save cap space and can use it during UFA to address the forward LW issues on the team
Dubas may still have made good moves if there was a pre-condition already that Seattle would take Kerfoot. If Kerfoot is the one taken then the trades a positive and he's done well. However, if he willingly chose Kerfoot over McCann that's a dumb decision on his part, and looks more and more like we are trying to run basically the same team as last year.
Warden of the North
Ned Stark's head
The stats say Holl is perfectly fine at this pay level.
JayfromNB1219
Registered User
I don’t think Justin Holl had as much to do with that as Keefe instituting a system that demanded more defensive focus from the forwards…who knows maybe it’s a mix of the two but I personally don’t see it (wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong though)
exporta
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- Jul 30, 2005
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