Confirmed with Link: Leafs go 4-4-1 in expansion, Dermott, Kerfoot, McCann, exposed

[Isaac Nootin]

Evidence for this is what, exactly?

Feelings

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Where does Justin Holl fit on a legitimate contending team?

top 4 pretty easily if you look at how the Leafs defense has been in the playoffs with him in the top 4. Just because the offense hasn't performed doesn't mean Holl is bad

 

[Puckstuff]

Where does Justin Holl fit on a legitimate contending team?

#4/5 RD with #3 upside.

 

[rumman]

Where does Justin Holl fit on a legitimate contending team?

on the Bolts? He's Luke Schenn.

 

[hamzarocks]

not to mention the playoffs, where the Leafs have given up the 3rd fewest goals against over the last 2 years. Holl getting 22 minutes per game is a big reason for it

We gave us the 3rd fewest goals against I'm assuming in the first round of the 2020 playoffs and 2021 playoffs (if your looking at total playoffs than that would be useless considering that other teams played more games than us versus higher quality of opponents so they naturally gave up more goals against)

In 2020 we accomplished what you pointed out versus the 29th best offensive team in the league. CBJ scored 180 goals in 70 games in 2019-2020 finishing 29th out of 31 teams

In 2021 despite the 4 division separations we faced the 17th best offensive team in the league with the Canadiens scoring 159 goals in 56 games

We weren't matching up versus ordinary opponents well see under normal circumstances. Our opponents were worse than average to horrendous offensive teams. Getting the favorable goals scored results is not impressive and certainly isn't a logical defense to having Holl, who was the worse of the top 4 defenders in both series be kept around

 

[The CyNick]

Why the Leafs exposed Alex Kerfoot and Jared McCann to Seattle in the expansion draft - The Athletic

As expected, Kyle Dubas’ Leafs protected eight skaters and one goaltender. Justin Holl was protected while both Alex Kerfoot and the newly acquired Jared McCann were exposed to the Kraken.

The Leafs knew coming in they were bound to lose Kerfoot and decided to prepare themselves for that inevitability by dealing for insurance in McCann. Now, they leave it up to Seattle GM Ron Francis to decide if Kerfoot is still his guy or whether he prefers the younger McCann instead.

Either way, the Leafs will have as many useful forwards on the roster as they did prior to the weekend.

Francis might have come away with players both had the Leafs not nabbed McCann away from the Penguins on Saturday.

Is it possible the Leafs will work out a side trade with Seattle to ensure that Kerfoot is their pick? Maybe, though increasingly it seems unlikely. The Kraken have set a very high price in trades of that kind.

Rather, it sounds like the Leafs are comfortable, now that they have McCann, living with whatever Francis decides.

If Seattle takes Kerfoot, then the Leafs have insured themselves with McCann, who could be their third-line centre next season. If Francis opts for McCann, the Leafs still have Kerfoot (though I’d argue he belongs on the wing moving forward and at centre only in the case of injury).

It may seem odd to trade for McCann, only to then leave him exposed. But it’s not as if the Leafs paid a high price to acquire him.

The cost: A pick in the last round of the draft two years from now (2023) and Filip Hållander, who was unlikely to play for the Leafs next year and probably maxes out as a third liner in the NHL.

While there was some thought that maybe McCann’s acquisition would lead the Leafs to the 7-3-1 protection model, in the end, Holl’s value won out. The front office knew it wouldn’t have been possible to find a 20-minute-a-night No. 4 defenceman making $2 million or less if Holl was exposed and claimed by Seattle.

David Savard and Alec Martinez, for instance, will likely draw double that price in free agency later this month.

Does Jake Muzzin make Holl better, helping him survive against the toughest competition in the league? Absolutely. That’s part of why the Leafs pay Muzzin what they do. But it’s not as if they could stick anyone in that spot and expect similar results.

Imagine spending ANY assets to ensure you keep Kerfoot. Whacky.

In the end you go from Kadri in the 3 hole to Kerfoot, who was often moved from centre, to now potentially McCann who is awful at centre. Tough couple years on the job for Dubas. Ouch.

 

[Deebo]

Right unless you view it by going 4-4-1 and if Seattle takes Kerfoot, then Leafs also lost prospect Hallander and draft pick (ie 3 assets via expansion) just to bring in Kerfoot's replacement.

If the do nothing and lose Kerfoot its only 1 asset.

If they do nothing and allow them to choose Kerfoot. You are left with Hallander and the 7th. If they make the trade and Seattle takes Kerfoot, you are left with McCann.

One asset was going for free no matter what, if it's Kerfoot then we traded Hallander and a 7th for McCann.

If they take McCann then we got to keep Kerfoot in exchange, for those same assets. It's not losing 3 assets because two of them netted us McCann or allowed us to keep Kerfoot.

But if you go 7-3-1 and protect McCann (the player you got for Hallander & pick) and protect Kerfoot, and 1 additional forward to protect, you're no longer spending 3 assets to replace Kerfoot, your actually adding +2 additional forwards along with Kerfoot. You're not losing Hallander and pick as Kerfoot replacement as you're not losing him nor the the player you got for those assets, plus adding a 3 forward to protect in the process.

You're not adding 2 addtional forwards. It's giving up a D-man instead. If you protect two more forwards, they still take a player, probably a defenseman.

So if you go 7-3-1, you have Kerfoot, McCann (or Hallander and a 7th), whatever 2 addtional forwards you protect and only one of Holl or Dermott

If they go 8-1 and Kerfoot is taken, you have McCann (or Hallander and a 7th), whatever 2 addtional forwards you would have protected if you went 7-3-1 and both Holl & Dermott.

Net change, Kerfott vs. one of Holl or Dermott

Simple Addition to as opposed to Instead of logic here.

So instead of core 4 forwards + McCann + Kerfoot + 1 additional forward = 7 forwards for next year.,

In sceario 1, 1 defenseman is gone, and Hallander/7th are sill gone

Leafs are going to be happy with 4 core forwards + McCann (Kerfoot replacement) = 5 forwards and only lost Kerfoot, and Hallender + draft pick and wasted 2 additional protection spots to so call break-even post expansion draft.

In scenario 2, that one defenseman stays, and Hallander/7th are still gone

Why would you include Hallander and a draft pick going away in scenario 2, but not scenario 1?

The diference between your two scenarios is Holl/Dermott going vs. Kerfoot. That's it. Hallander and the draft pick have been traded in both scenarios and if they used those 2 spots to protect forwards, then a defenseman would go.

The merits of chosing to let Kerfoot go instead of one of thedefenders is a valid discussion to have. But excluding assets in one scenario and including them another to make one seem worse is disingenuous.

 

[Kiwi]

Again you do realize Seattle was going to have him available from Pittsburgh. Aslong as you realize that you are crying about us losing....nothing in the expansion draft. Then carry on I guess lol.

So? We traded assets for him so that's completely pointless

Nothing? Could have lost overpaid bottom pair defenseman or overpaid 3C but no we're to smart for that

We go out and trade for somebody much better than either, don't protect him so they can have him instead

No crying involved,just a realization this front office is massively overrated and will be supported because "team"

 

[Apex Predator]

top 4 pretty easily if you look at how the Leafs defense has been in the playoffs with him in the top 4. Just because the offense hasn't performed doesn't mean Holl is bad

I wouldn’t say easily. There is concern with his play when he isn’t with Muzzin. In my opinion that makes me hesitant to say any top contending team he’s a top 4 .

 

[The CyNick]

Evidence for this is what, exactly?

Knowledge and watching the sport of hockey.

 

[ToneDog]

We should have done nothing and let them take either Dermott or Kerfoot, neither is any great loss

Or better yet grabbed more forwards while they were cheap and went 7-3-1 instead and filled the #4D hole in UFA if Holl was grabbed

You presume people want to trade for a 35 point 3.5M maybe center, please form an orderly line getting some of that action

Instead we gave up assets to give Seattle a 25 year old on a 60 point pace making 600K less option instead

Genius

IMO you won't get McCann after the ED for Hollander and a 7th. You now have insurance at the #3C position if Francis takes Kerfoot or McCann. I am not a fan of the GM but this move makes sense.

 

[hamzarocks]

So? We traded assets for him so that's completely pointless

Nothing? Could have lost overpaid bottom pair defenseman or overpaid 3C but no we're to smart for that

We go out and trade for somebody much better than either, don't protect him so they can have him instead

No crying involved,just a realization this front office is massively overrated and will be supported by unthinking tools

If Kerfoot/Holl are taken without another asset being sacrificed than its fine and Dubas deserves props

If we traded for McCann just so he can be that while keeping inferior quality players in the medicore three (kerfoot, holl, dermott) than its a dumb move on his part.

If we give another asset for them to take kerfoot vs holl/dermott/McCann it's another dumb move. We should have let them choose which of those three redundant and moveable players they wanted and taken that capspace to add to the hole at LW on the team

 

[IPS]

on the Bolts? He's Luke Schenn.

He's Luke Schenn on the vast majority of contending teams the last few years.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

We gave us the 3rd fewest goals against I'm assuming in the first round of the 2020 playoffs and 2021 playoffs (if your looking at total playoffs than that would be useless considering that other teams played more games than us versus higher quality of opponents so they naturally gave up more goals against)

In 2020 we accomplished what you pointed out versus the 29th best offensive team in the league. CBJ scored 180 goals in 70 games in 2019-2020 finishing 29th out of 31 teams

In 2021 despite the 4 division separations we faced the 17th best offensive team in the league with the Canadiens scoring 159 goals in 56 games

We weren't matching up versus ordinary opponents well see under normal circumstances. Our opponents were worse than average to horrendous offensive teams. Getting the favorable goals scored results is not impressive and certainly isn't a logical defense to having Holl, who was the worse of the top 4 defenders in both series be kept around

Tampa's the only team that gave up fewer goals per game to Montreal than the Leafs did, and they got way better goaltending. In terms of strictly defensive play like limiting chances, the Leafs had a slight edge over them and did way better than Vegas and Winnipeg. Columbus is a harder comparison because they only played against TB. Tampa did better, but they were pretty close

 

[zeke]

So? We traded assets for him so that's completely pointless

Nothing? Could have lost overpaid bottom pair defenseman or overpaid 3C but no we're to smart for that

We go out and trade for somebody much better than either, don't protect him so they can have him instead

No crying involved,just a realization this front office is massively overrated and will be supported because "team"

They like kerfoot holl dermott better than Hallander.

Not complicated.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

So? We traded assets for him so that's completely pointless

Nothing? Could have lost overpaid bottom pair defenseman or overpaid 3C but no we're to smart for that

We go out and trade for somebody much better than either, don't protect him so they can have him instead

No crying involved,just a realization this front office is massively overrated and will be supported because "team"

I really am not someone that blindly supports everything this front office does...I am also not a big fan of Dermott. I would prefer Dermott or Kerfoot get selected over McCann. But if they select McCann we have an entire offseason to deal with the rest of the roster and have come through the expansion draft pretty well unscathed. If you think Dermott and Kerfoot have zero value around the league that is more of a you problem then a Leaf problem though.

 

[Kiwi]

IMO you won't get McCann after the ED for Hollander and a 7th. You now have insurance at the #3C position if Francis takes Kerfoot or McCann. I am not a fan of the GM but this move makes sense.

You can get a center that's actually a center in UFA this year and he's probably going to cost you less than Kerfoot that doesn't cost anything but cap space

 

[ottomaddox]

You do realize Pittsburgh was going to expose Mccann as well right? That is the entire reason they traded him to us for pennies on the dollar. The fact people don't realize this was an insurance move yet absolutely blows my mind.

I don't claim to know the motivations of PIT or TOR. How can you?

I do know one thing: Bet against Dubas all the way. Whatever his motivation it will no doubt backfire.

 

[zeke]

on the Bolts? He's Luke Schenn.

He's Cernak, actually.

 

[exporta]

Kerfoot has 2 years left so I'm guessing they take him. Plus coach knows him

Hope you're right. I think Kerfoot has less money owed too.

 

[Funk21]

How does Dubas look like an idiot?

He traded an second (Hallander) and a 7th to protect Kerfoot....

 

[Kiwi]

They like kerfoot holl dermott better than Hallander.

Not complicated.

2 of those 3 are wildly overated, and overpaid I might add

 

[ULF_55]

IMO you won't get McCann after the ED for Hollander and a 7th. You now have insurance at the #3C position if Francis takes Kerfoot or McCann. I am not a fan of the GM but this move makes sense.

Yes, McCann was gone from the Penguins in some mocks.

Penguins probably thought the same.

He was a cheap acquisition, and if he's gone it was a cheap insurance policy.

 

[IPS]

He's Cernak, actually.

He's not even half the defensemen Cernak is.

 

[zeke]

He's not even half the defensemen Cernak is.

He is.