Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[Trapper]

right now the Leafs are on an 84/85 pt pace.. but they were on a 78/79 pt pace under Babcock. Under Keefe's small sample size they're on a 102.5 pt pace. If they maintain the Keefe pace they wind up with 95/96 points. With our roster getting healthier, and time to adjust under Keefe's new system, and with our schedule getting supposedly much easier in the 2nd half, there's reason to be optimistic about us finishing higher still. Of course, this is the Leafs, so nothing is ever done the 'easy' way, so I imagine this will be a dog-fight all the way down to the wire.

That pace is only with Andersen in net.
We have 51 games left. If Andersen plays them all that’s 75 games for him.
Someone needs to take about 10. And get more than 1 point.

 

[zeke]

That pace is only with Andersen in net.
We have 51 games left. If Andersen plays them all that’s 75 games for him.
Someone needs to take about 10. And get more than 1 point.

No that 103pt pace under Keefe includes Hutch playing 1/8 of the games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Considering the sample size, our pace under Keefe isn't a strong argument for anything.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

No that 103pt pace under Keefe includes Hutch playing 1/8 of the games.

Let's not round up. 102.5 pace was correct. If they maintain that pace they finish with 95 points (94.75). I doubt that gets us in. I hope you're right that we'll get points from our backup. It's pretty much required.

 

[Warden of the North]

Leafs have to win 4 more than Florida by the end of the year.

one more than montreal and buffalo.

It’s very much achievable. If I’m not mistaken. Last nights game marked the end of our tough stretch.

Most back to backs out of the way. Of the top teams we have played

boston 3/4
Wash 2/3
Col. 2/2
St lou 2/2

We have 4 gamee against Florida still and 2 against Mon/Buff.

Huge games

 

[member 300185]

Lets give Vlad Kak another shot. He is playing so well with the Marlies. Last game we hung him out to dry. His numbers are much better than Hutch.

 

[zeke]

Let's not round up. 102.5 pace was correct. If they maintain that pace they finish with 95 points (94.75). I doubt that gets us in. I hope you're right that we'll get points from our backup. It's pretty much required.

Has any team in nhl history ever not gotten any points from their backup?

 

[koyvoo]

Some fool decided that only the very minimum cap was needed for a quality back up goalie.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Has any team in nhl history ever not gotten any points from their backup?

OK, we need a decent amount of points from our backup. 1 points in 8 games ain't gonna do it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Has any team in nhl history ever not gotten any points from their backup?

I'm pretty sure he means points as in "a reasonable amount of points to expect from a NHL backup", not points as in "any points".

 

[deletethis]

No that 103pt pace under Keefe includes Hutch playing 1/8 of the games.

7/8 of 51 games is 45 starts for Andersen. That would mean 69 starts for Andersen on the season which is 3 more than he has ever started.

Let's see what happens if Andersen maintains his current season winning percentage (better record than the team under Keefe btw, 14-7-3):

- 45 starts: 26-13-6
- Team's record minus 6 starts for the backup: 40-26-10 ---> 90 points (40 wins is 2 more than his personal best)
- Still need 6 to 8 points from the backup in 6 games

Therefore, no matter how you wash it including playing Andersen to exhaustion, the Leafs need its backup to win more often than he loses. It's absolutely critical that the team finds a good backup ASAP.

 

[Trapper]

I'm pretty sure he means points as in "a reasonable amount of points to expect from a NHL backup", not points as in "any points".

You usually need your backup to be 500.
We have gotten points from our backup. 1. Ideally you want a 10-10, 9-9-1, whatever record.
Our next back to back opportunity is Detroit. There is a prime 2 points for the backup.

But I will put on the blue glasses that everything is fine (as many allude to) as long as the following excuses are not used at end of year.

1. Backup (most don’t seem worried)
2. Depth (Johnsson/Kap/Kerfoot/Hyman/Muzzin/Barrie) with only 35 mil in cap is right on.
3. Coach (60 games to go and people say we are only a couple of points away)

Now there are no issues.

 

[Mess]

Forget the wild card spot...we have much better chances at a divisional spot.

There is no way in hell that any one of Montreal, Buffalo or Florida is playing .640 hockey from here to the end of the season.

We just need to be better than those teams, that's it.

Last year in the East you needed 98 points to secure a WC spot, and every year you still have to get to minimum 96 points to get into the playoffs.

Because of the 3 point games and teams your chasing playing each other someone is always guaranteed points.

Tracking the points earned to get to at least a wild card spot has to happen as it does every season, your simply speaking theoretical while I'm speaking practical here.

 

[zeke]

Last year in the East you needed 98 points to secure a WC spot, and every year you still have to get to minimum 96 points to get into the playoffs.

Because of the 3 point games and teams your chasing playing each other someone is always guaranteed points.

Tracking the points earned to get to at least a wild card spot has to happen as it does every season, your simply speaking theoretical while I'm speaking practical here.

For the first time maybe ever, I agree with Mess!

dont waste time looking at what the other teams are doing. Focus on what it takes to get to 96-98pts. That's the only thing that matters.

 

[DarkKnight]

Considering the sample size, our pace under Keefe isn't a strong argument for anything.

I like Keefe as the coach, so this isn’t a slight on him, but I’d expect the team to bounce back after the firing with a monkey behind the bench. Just the slightest bit of pride, adrenaline and honeymoon feelings should get you some wins in the wake of a major shakeup.

I think that’s fair and trying to extrapolate something more is just partisanship.

Again, big fan of Keefe moving forward, but I expected an inspired period in the wake of Babcock getting fired.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I like Keefe as the coach, so this isn’t a slight on him, but I’d expect the team to bounce back after the firing with a monkey behind the bench. Just the slightest bit of pride, adrenaline and honeymoon feelings should get you some wins in the wake of a major shakeup.

I think that’s fair and trying to extrapolate something more is just partisanship.

Again, big fan of Keefe moving forward, but I expected an inspired period in the wake of Babcock getting fired.

Exactly this. An uptick is expected but it's way too early to say for sure what we really have here.

 

[TopCheese]

imagine just squeaking in and having to face presidents trophy winning bruins. Would be just our luck

 

[deletethis]

OK, we need a decent amount of points from our backup. 1 points in 8 games ain't gonna do it.

Without a stellar near-Andersen level performance from the backup to finish the season, it may already be too late.

 

[zeke]

imagine just squeaking in and having to face presidents trophy winning bruins. Would be just our luck

Will make beating them even sweeter.

 

[zeke]

Considering the sample size, our pace under Keefe isn't a strong argument for anything.

True, but then again, keefe's already coached over a quarter of our games this year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

True, but then again, keefe's already coached over a quarter of our games this year.

So what? That doesn't make the sample size any bigger than it is (and it's not big).

 

[DarkKnight]

Exactly this. An uptick is expected but it's way too early to say for sure what we really have here.

And, we have a lot of quality players, we aren’t a bottom feeder. As constructed, this team is “playoff” on paper, the question we all have is whether it is a legit Cup contender.

 

[zeke]

So what? That doesn't make the sample size any bigger than it is (and it's not big).

So it tells us that the sample size under babs this year is also not very big.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So it tells us that the sample size under babs this year is also not very big.

Again, so what?

 

[ToneDog]

imagine just squeaking in and having to face presidents trophy winning bruins. Would be just our luck

Both WCs appear to be coming out of the Metro. Only chance we face the Bruins is in the second round if we can get beat out Florida or Tampa for a playoff spot and in round 1. All that assuming Habs and Sabres do not make a run.

Panthers now up 3 on us with 2 games in hand.