Leafs - By the Numbers

[Notsince67]

Here's a look at this seasons stats projected over a full season. The positives are in green, the concerns in yellow. Not included in the concerns are Freddies numbers....

View attachment 396882

Some observations:

• Matthews on paces for 71g, Marner on pace for 118 points including an 80 apples season
• JT and Nylander just not good enough.
  
• Rielly getting too many minutes.
  
• Jumbo Joe has been quite good.
  
• Boyd and Spezza putting up nearly 50pt pace with only 10 minutes a night...
• Simmer on pace for 30
• TJ Brodie has been okay, but really expect more offensively.
  
• The bottom of the chart is just a mess of players who are getting decent opportunities and creating nothing. Bogo on pace for 5 points...Dermott 7.
  
• Kerfoot actually close to a 40pt pace so far....interesting!

62 points for Rielly in a full season would be around the top 5 among defensemen. Figures you dont have Rielly's points in green because it is Rielly and stuff.
Rielly is also 24th in ATOI among dmen in the league

 

[zeke]

Defense Pairs xGF%, Even Strength (min 30minutes played together):

Rielly-Brodie 55.2% <--- toughest qoc, but favorable zone starts
Muzzin-Holl 55.8% <---- secondary qoc, but tougher zone starts
Dermott-Holl 53.8% <--- secondary qoc, but tougher zone starts
Dermott-Bogo 55.0% <- easy qoc easy zone starts
Lehtonen-Bogo 54.5% <- easy qoc easy zone starts

That is an impressive defense corps, from top to bottom.

And there's two great prospects on the verge of NHL readiness who can't even get in there.....though, tbh the least impressive there is the bottom pairing, given their easier usage...and there's a decent chance (thought no guarantee) that Sandin-Lilly could dominate even more in that kind of usage.

 

[zeke]

For reference, last year:

Rielly-Ceci 48.5% / Rielly-Barrie 54.7%
Muzzin-Holl 57.6% / Muzzin-Barrie 47.6% / Dermott-Holl 51.1%
Dermott-Barrie 54.7% / Dermott-Ceci 57.1%

The year before:

Rielly-Hainsey 50.2% / Muzzin-Rielly 58.8%
Gardiner-Zaitsev 53.3% / Muzzin-Zaitsev 50.7%
Demott-Ozhiganov 52.4% / Marincin-Ozhiganov 56.5% / Dermott-Marincin 51.1%

The year before

Rielly-Hainsey 49.8%
Gardiner-Zaitsev 50.4% / Gardiner-Carrick 50.1%
Dermott-Polak 46.8% / Borgman-Polak 52.4% / Dermott-Carrick 67.2%

The year before

Rielly-Zaitsev 48.6%
Gardiner-Zaitsev 47.7% / Gardiner-Carrick 54.7% / Gardiner-Polak 48.8%
Hunwick-Polak 52.3%


So obviously we've never had 3 pairs this solid before, and especially we've never had 2 solid top-4 pairings like this before.

Interesting to note though that last year's defense corps seems to have had some real potential if it had been used properly from the start:

Rielly-Barrie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Ceci

Actually all looked good statistically as pairings, and might have turned into something if Keefe had been in charge from the start (or if his defense hadn't been massacred by injury soon after he took over).


Though even then, while Rielly-Barrie may have been a good statistical pairing, that would have been much more heavily weighted towards offense than the much more balanced Rielly-Brodie pairing we have now.

Rielly-Brodie: 2.67xgf/60, 2.17xga/60 -- 48.2cf/60, 48.8ca/60
Rielly-Barrie: 3.17xgf/60, 2.62xga/60 --- 68.2cf/60, 60.1ca/60

Rielly-Barrie was actually kinda ridiculously good offensively, but they were just as awful defensively. The Rielly-Brodie pair is turning out to be quite solid defensively now, while still being dynamic offensively.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I was listening to the fan590 last night, and they had Rhett Warrener on after the post game. He was giving his take on the Leafs from a former player, CGY fan, CGY Media perspective. Which I always find more useful than my generally optimistic/bias/naïve perspective. When asked what he is seeing with this team vs. the Leafs of old his answer was the commitment to defense from our forward group. Most importantly from our top players Matthews and Marner. Which I could not agree with more. Matthews and Marner are not only our best forwards offensively, but they have really stepped up their 200 foot game immensely. They have always been average to good defensively, but you can really see a huge commitment from them both and I would 100% classify them as 2 of our top defending forwards, if not the top 2. I am not sure I have seen them dog it once on a back check all year. It is so impressive to see. Rhett mentioned the fact that a lot of young players think by playing a full 200 foot game it will compromise their offence, which is ultimately what they are paid to do. Yet coming hard on a back check will never compromise offence, having your stick in the lanes will not compromise offence, relentless puck pursuit will not compromise offence. In fact the opposite occurs, because you end up playing with the puck more. It really isn't a shock that they are statistically out pacing their career averages in the same year they have defensively been at their best. Major kudos to Mitch and Auston, they are leading the way in every capacity.

 

[zeke]

I was listening to the fan590 last night, and they had Rhett Warrener on after the post game. He was giving his take on the Leafs from a former player, CGY fan, CGY Media perspective. Which I always find more useful than my generally optimistic/bias/naïve perspective. When asked what he is seeing with this team vs. the Leafs of old his answer was the commitment to defense from our forward group. Most importantly from our top players Matthews and Marner. Which I could not agree with more. Matthews and Marner are not only our best forwards offensively, but they have really stepped up their 200 foot game immensely. They have always been average to good defensively, but you can really see a huge commitment from them both and I would 100% classify them as 2 of our top defending forwards, if not the top 2. I am not sure I have seen them dog it once on a back check all year. It is so impressive to see. Rhett mentioned the fact that a lot of young players think by playing a full 200 foot game it will compromise their offence, which is ultimately what they are paid to do. Yet coming hard on a back check will never compromise offence, having your stick in the lanes will not compromise offence, relentless puck pursuit will not compromise offence. In fact the opposite occurs, because you end up playing with the puck more. It really isn't a shock that they are statistically out pacing their career averages in the same year they have defensively been at their best. Major kudos to Mitch and Auston, they are leading the way in every capacity.

never underestimate how much easier it is for players to give full effort defensively when their coach has a system designed to make it easier for them to be more effective defensively.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The defense combos are a much easier analysis because they've been so consistent and because the problem area is clear.

View attachment 390925


I would pretty much ignore the bottom "odd" combos there completely- those seem to be mostly odd shifts that come in situations where a PK expires and a combo is pinned in the zone still for a bit and things like that.

The top 4 combos there are the only ones that really matter, and its a simple analysis - rielly-brodie has been bad, muzzin-holl has been great, dermott-bogo has been good and clearly better than lehtonen-bogo as the bottom pair.

Personally i wouldn't change anything. The top pair should fix itself eventually, and the 2nd pair is too good to split up. The bottom pair choice also seems pretty clear right now, though I guess it wouldn't hurt to take a look at dermott and lehtonen together.

But overall that top pair is the biggest worry spot on the team so far - if they can't be much better then its going to be really hard for the team to dominate overall at any point. I'm pretty sure they'll figure it out but there's no guarantees there. For now I'd keep playing them as is and expect them to improve.

This matches up completely to da eye test ... although last night I thought Rielly played better and ran around less ... i think it is entirely on rielly to stay back and da pairs numbers will improve .. what were their numbers last night?

 

[Critical13]

Our Expected Goals Against continues to fall We also now have the highest expected goals 5v5 of any team, which is awesome. If our PP can get back on track, we will be playing the best hockey we've seen with this core of players (Matthews era).

This Goals Against Above Expected chart is interesting. Would appear that Freddie had a strong end to January and start to February, which matched the eye test (if I am reading this correctly).

 

[DarkKnight]

I was listening to the fan590 last night, and they had Rhett Warrener on after the post game. He was giving his take on the Leafs from a former player, CGY fan, CGY Media perspective. Which I always find more useful than my generally optimistic/bias/naïve perspective. When asked what he is seeing with this team vs. the Leafs of old his answer was the commitment to defense from our forward group. Most importantly from our top players Matthews and Marner. Which I could not agree with more. Matthews and Marner are not only our best forwards offensively, but they have really stepped up their 200 foot game immensely. They have always been average to good defensively, but you can really see a huge commitment from them both and I would 100% classify them as 2 of our top defending forwards, if not the top 2. I am not sure I have seen them dog it once on a back check all year. It is so impressive to see. Rhett mentioned the fact that a lot of young players think by playing a full 200 foot game it will compromise their offence, which is ultimately what they are paid to do. Yet coming hard on a back check will never compromise offence, having your stick in the lanes will not compromise offence, relentless puck pursuit will not compromise offence. In fact the opposite occurs, because you end up playing with the puck more. It really isn't a shock that they are statistically out pacing their career averages in the same year they have defensively been at their best. Major kudos to Mitch and Auston, they are leading the way in every capacity.

People may note when we’re holding leads late in the game Matthews and Marner are literally on the ice every other shift. They have been terrific defensively this year, we may be sleeping on how good.

 

[Twine Tickler]

never underestimate how much easier it is for players to give full effort defensively when their coach has a system designed to make it easier for them to be more effective defensively.

I think a key thing as well is that they are seeing results. On both ends of the ice. It is easy to commit to playing a full 200 foot game, but if you they went 5 games without a goal for, it wouldn't matter how many they kept out, they'd hear about it. The way they command the whole sheet takes complete buy in from everyone on the line, which has been the case all year. I remember when Kadri became our shut down guy, and ended being very effective in that role. It was almost as if that success became his motivating driver. He constantly worked on it, trying to be the best defensive forward on our team. Now that Mitch and Auston are seeing this level of success, I just cant see them playing any other way. The results are there, they know they can put up historic level pt/g paces while still being hard to play against. They always had the talent, they always worked hard, but now they seem to have figured out how to be that consistent presence you need from your top players. I mean have they had a bad game all year? I wish there were fans in the stands just so that they could see/hear how much the fans respect what they are doing

 

[Zybalto]

People may note when we’re holding leads late in the game Matthews and Marner are literally on the ice every other shift. They have been terrific defensively this year, we may be sleeping on how good.

Was looking into these stats just the other day and the thing that stuck out to me the most was how ridiculously low the GA/60 rate is for the Tavares/Nylander combo this year.

Here are some comparisons to consider:

5v5:

Bergeron/Marchand:
xGA/60: 1.7
GA/60: 2.25

O'Reilly/Perron:
xGA/60: 1.8
GA/60: 2.43

Matthews/Marner:
xGA/60: 1.96
GA/60: 1.66

Tavares/Nylander:
xGA/60: 1.99
GA/60: 1.07

 

[zeke]

I think a key thing as well is that they are seeing results. On both ends of the ice. It is easy to commit to playing a full 200 foot game, but if you they went 5 games without a goal for, it wouldn't matter how many they kept out, they'd hear about it. The way they command the whole sheet takes complete buy in from everyone on the line, which has been the case all year. I remember when Kadri became our shut down guy, and ended being very effective in that role. It was almost as if that success became his motivating driver. He constantly worked on it, trying to be the best defensive forward on our team. Now that Mitch and Auston are seeing this level of success, I just cant see them playing any other way. The results are there, they know they can put up historic level pt/g paces while still being hard to play against. They always had the talent, they always worked hard, but now they seem to have figured out how to be that consistent presence you need from your top players. I mean have they had a bad game all year? I wish there were fans in the stands just so that they could see/hear how much the fans respect what they are doing

Think about how depressing it is for a player to see other teams seemingly playing effortlessly sound systems hockey while you"re working your ass off trying to chase the puck.

That wears on you eventually, and I don't care how good a defensive player you are it gets damn hard to keep giving 100%.

 

[Judas Tavares]

My favourite number right now is a P% of .762 which is tops in the league. Hard to complain about really anything when you have that.

I haven't looked at the more in-depth numbers to see if they've lucked into that points percentage, but I can't imagine they have, or if so, it's slight luck and not some complete fluke. They've had some sleepy wins here and there, but in terms of losses, I can only really complain about both Ottawa losses. The other ones were meh or decent and just standard losses. All teams lose. All teams are the second best team in a given game at times. It happens.

If the team has only had 2 really concerning games out of 21 so far, that is outstanding. Maybe I'm overly positive, but there is too much good happening right now to be overly concerned with a loss here or a blip there. Call me when they lose 4 in a row or slip out of the playoff picture or something. Until then, I really, really can't complain and am surprised by how much I am seeing, but it is also Leafs Nation so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

 

[Twine Tickler]

If the team has only had 2 really concerning games out of 21 so far, that is outstanding. Maybe I'm overly positive, but there is too much good happening right now to be overly concerned with a loss here or a blip there. Call me when they lose 4 in a row or slip out of the playoff picture or something. Until then, I really, really can't complain and am surprised by how much I am seeing, but it is also Leafs Nation so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

Yup, even if they would have lost last night, it would have been extremely hard to be critical. They dominated the game 5v5 for most of the night. Ya, their PP was god awful, but a lot of that credit has to be given to CGY PK. They played the PK brilliantly the last 2 games. They knew we had a dogs breakfast PP lineup. One that hadn't worked together all year, so they knew being aggressive was less likely to be disastrous because those quick touch passes wouldn't be there with the units being out of whack. But aside from that, they played well enough to win in both games against the flames, and ran into a very hot tendy. Extremely frustrating as a fan, but I will take losses like that any day of the week because at least they showed up. Luckily we squeaked out 2 points, which was very deserving. Really not a lot to hate about this team right now. Especially given the fact that we have had horrible injury luck, and apparently our superstar AM34 has had a bad wrist all year lol. Imagine being that good at something that you can be 75% of yourself and still be the best at it. Absolute treat to be a leaf fan right now

 

[Teeder Keon]

Here’s some numbers that aren’t good at all , and I mean at all
Petan

GP	G	A	P	+/-
6	0	1	1	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Engvall

GP	G	A	P	+/-
12	1	1	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Vesey

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	1	3	-5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Barb
0
Soup

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	3	5	-3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5 goals 6 assists 11 points -12 isn’t good at all 5 players

These numbers have to change , and or we have to change these players ...
I will say this , at least Soup is trying hard , hitting , getting chances , great on the SH and getting involved , but these other players have literally done nothing other than the odd shift here and there , and also collectively are minus lots

 

[Twine Tickler]

Here’s some numbers that aren’t good at all , and I mean at all
Petan

GP	G	A	P	+/-
6	0	1	1	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Engvall

GP	G	A	P	+/-
12	1	1	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Vesey

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	1	3	-5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Barb
0
Soup

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	3	5	-3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5 goals 6 assists 11 points -12 isn’t good at all 5 players

These numbers have to change , and or we have to change these players ...
I will say this , at least Soup is trying hard , hitting , getting chances , great on the SH and getting involved , but these other players have literally done nothing other than the odd shift here and there , and also collectively are minus lots

Here's my take on those players:

Petan- I think he has actually played really well for how infrequent he has been able to check into the lineup. And whenever he does, it is with different linemates. Would like to see him get a more consistent role. even 50% of the games. Hard to maintain/develop good habits when you get no game action

Engvall- Was a fan of his when he broke into the leafs last year, largely because he was a very effective PK'er with his long reach and speed. He is as jeckyll and hyde as you get. Shows flashes of speed and skill, and then next shift complete stupidity. To me, this player has all the tools, no tool box. Not sure he will develop out of that personally.

Vesey/Barb- Not a huge fane of either, however I would say I have been more impressed with Barabanov in his limited action. Certainly as of late. Vesey is just not good enough at anything to stay in this lineup TBH. Not sure how he has played every game.

Soup- I actually have been really happy with his game. He has absolutely no finish, but that will not last forever. His 5% shooting percentage should go up soon enough. He gets way too many high danger looks with his speed. I remember when Calgary parted ways with Paul Byron because he couldn't finish, and MTL picked him up because they saw a player who single handedly got like 20 breakaways in an 82 game season and score maybe 2 times. So they signed him and worked on his b-ways and he became a 20 goal scorer. Soup is our Paul Byron. He will start to score again

 

[Teeder Keon]

Here's my take on those players:

Petan- I think he has actually played really well for how infrequent he has been able to check into the lineup. And whenever he does, it is with different linemates. Would like to see him get a more consistent role. even 50% of the games. Hard to maintain/develop good habits when you get no game action

Engvall- Was a fan of his when he broke into the leafs last year, largely because he was a very effective PK'er with his long reach and speed. He is as jeckyll and hyde as you get. Shows flashes of speed and skill, and then next shift complete stupidity. To me, this player has all the tools, no tool box. Not sure he will develop out of that personally.

Vesey/Barb- Not a huge fane of either, however I would say I have been more impressed with Barabanov in his limited action. Certainly as of late. Vesey is just not good enough at anything to stay in this lineup TBH. Not sure how he has played every game.

Soup- I actually have been really happy with his game. He has absolutely no finish, but that will not last forever. His 5% shooting percentage should go up soon enough. He gets way too many high danger looks with his speed. I remember when Calgary parted ways with Paul Byron because he couldn't finish, and MTL picked him up because they saw a player who single handedly got like 20 breakaways in an 82 game season and score maybe 2 times. So they signed him and worked on his b-ways and he became a 20 goal scorer. Soup is our Paul Byron. He will start to score again

great takes and you took the time to have well thought out replies...
I agree with you on all of them
Go Leafs Go

 

[Critical13]

Was looking into these stats just the other day and the thing that stuck out to me the most was how ridiculously low the GA/60 rate is for the Tavares/Nylander combo this year.

Great post as always Zybs! I've noticed that the Tavares line, no matter who his partner is, seems to be strong in the defensive zone. I think John has made that a priority this season, and it shows.

Willy isn't great as a zone or board defender, but he is excellent at offensive and neutral zone stick checking and puck recovery, and I think that really helps against elite talents that use the neutral zone to get going.

Here’s some numbers that aren’t good at all , and I mean at all
Petan

GP	G	A	P	+/-
6	0	1	1	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Engvall

GP	G	A	P	+/-
12	1	1	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Vesey

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	1	3	-5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Barb
0
Soup

GP	G	A	P	+/-
21	2	3	5	-3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5 goals 6 assists 11 points -12 isn’t good at all 5 players

These numbers have to change , and or we have to change these players ...
I will say this , at least Soup is trying hard , hitting , getting chances , great on the SH and getting involved , but these other players have literally done nothing other than the odd shift here and there , and also collectively are minus lots

Ya that's a tough bunch of stats to look at. Engvall and Mik should definitely each have 4-5 more points. Really bad luck or finishing skill.

Barabonov gaves us a good luck at what he could potentially bring, but it seems like he needs good players to play well, and we just don't have space in the top 6. I'd like to see him make some of those good offensive reads on a lower line.

Vesey...not much to say. Not a fan. Petan tries hard but if we put him in the line up, we need a bit more production.

 

[Fogelhund]

To be fair to Barabanov, new country, new league... he should be given a bit of a chance... The more he's played, the better he's looked.

Mikheyev plays like a legit top six forward.... except he can't put the biscuit in the bucket... is it bad luck, or can he just not shoot?

Engvall's game is getting better as a C.

Looking good, doing better.. at the end of the day, you've got to put up some points. The depth needs to contribute more, and if it can, we will be a very strong team... they look like they can, now they just need to do it.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Hyman, Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Boyd have all done a decent job offensively... when healthy, that's 10 guys.... two more have to step up.

 

[Teeder Keon]

To be fair to Barabanov, new country, new league... he should be given a bit of a chance... The more he's played, the better he's looked.

Mikheyev plays like a legit top six forward.... except he can't put the biscuit in the bucket... is it bad luck, or can he just not shoot?

Engvall's game is getting better as a C.

Looking good, doing better.. at the end of the day, you've got to put up some points. The depth needs to contribute more, and if it can, we will be a very strong team... they look like they can, now they just need to do it.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Hyman, Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Boyd have all done a decent job offensively... when healthy, that's 10 guys.... two more have to step up.

The only one that i disagree with you is Engvall
I’ve made no excuses on my assessment of this player , up until this last game but especially the 3-0 loss to the flames , I was absolutely disgusted that a player wearing our jersey and our crest on their chest played with such cowardice and fright on the possibilities of getting hit or going into the corners or receiving passes in the open ice . His game was inexcusable and I’m literally done with him , as I don’t see how you can teach or coach a cowardice player ...
If you need to see for yourself , go ahead if you can and review that game and most of his other games , but especially that one on nearly every single play of his ... I’m still fuming , watching and following our Leafs for over 55+ years there’s been very few times where I’ve witnessed that type of player , so I’m done with him ..
And as far as Vesey , he’s just not good enough period .
Petan not good enough in the top 6 and you can’t use him in the bottom 6
Same as Barb
As for Soup , I think we should have the patience, because he could be on the verge of greatness ??? Or not

 

[Captain14]

I would just like to say thank you to everyone that is taking the time to post these statistical updates.
I have to admit, I have never allowed myself to become educated in the wonderful world of analytic’s with any sport.
I was a three sport athlete 35-40 years ago from the old school methods of doing things.
Heart, passion, hard work and dedication was how I was coached and brought up.
But I will say, this thread is one that I really enjoy reading, it is filled with diverse and very interesting information.
Thank you all for opening my eyes to this aspect of statistics.

 

[Critical13]

I am a big fan of this trend in PK goals against:

Impressive considering the powerplay firepower in this division.

 

[zeke]

I am a big fan of this trend in PK goals against:

View attachment 402751

Impressive considering the powerplay firepower in this division.

When did Freddy get hurt again?

 

[Zybalto]

I am a big fan of this trend in PK goals against:

View attachment 402751

Impressive considering the powerplay firepower in this division.

Toronto has been in the top 5 in the NHL for a while now (and 1st in the league since Feb. 1st) for xGA/60 on the PK so its no surprise to see it come down as goaltending stabilized.

Also since Feb. 1st, the Leafs give up only 10.67 high danger chances/60 on the PK. Thats better than 9 teams gave up at even strength.

Leafs are just killing it on all fronts this year.

 

[Critical13]

Toronto has been in the top 5 in the NHL for a while now (and 1st in the league since Feb. 1st) for xGA/60 on the PK so its no surprise to see it come down as goaltending stabilized.

Also since Feb. 1st, the Leafs give up only 10.67 high danger chances/60 on the PK. Thats better than 9 teams gave up at even strength.

Leafs are just killing it on all fronts this year.

The Brodie Effect

 

[Critical13]

Still moving in the right direction: