Leafs - By the Numbers

[Golden_Jet]

Interesting the higher the offensive zone starts, the better showing in the 3 categories.

 

[Critical13]

I think we have 3 lines that are pretty much set and the 4th is still pretty damn good

5v5 Numbers:

Thornton/Matthews/Marner:

CF%: 62.13
xGF%: 61.78
GF%: 63.50

Kerfoot/Tavares/Nylander:

CF%: 61.29
xGF%: 66.75
GF%: 100 (Yep, you are seeing that right. This line hasnt given up a goal 5v5 this year yet.

Soup/Engvall/Hyman:

CF%: 55.53
xGF%: 61.78
GF%: 79.77

Vesey/Boyd/Spezza:

CF%: 43.14
xGF%: 54.14
GF%: 69.72

The losses lately have all been goaltending related so I'm not gonna pay it that much attention.

Those numbers from every line are just incredible though. What to do with Simmonds when he comes back though?

Great stuff as always Zyb.

I am not sure what to do when Simmonds comes back. In my eyes, the top line has come back down to earth, and I think Joe has been the wink link.

Hard to suggest changes but while watching the games, it really feels like we need a bit more finish in the line up.

I am also starting to feel some concern with Holl. He started the majority of the season almost always in the top 5 for xGF%, but recently he's been finding himself much closer to the bottom. Last night he looked legitimately high as a kite out there.

 

[zeke]

GSVA (Game Score Value Added) rankings at the 1/2 mark:


Forwards (~470 total listed):

2. Matthews --> super elite 1st liner
8. Marner -----> super elite 1st liner
23. Tavares ---> top 1st liner

58. Hyman ----> average 1st liner
59. Nylander --> average 1st liner
200. Thornton -> good 3rd liner

203. Kerfoot ---> good 3rd liner
212. Spezza ----> average 3rd liner
217. Boyd ------> average 3rd liner

218. Mikheyev --> average 3rd liner
272. Engvall ----> borderline 3rd liner
299. Simmonds -> good 4th liner

300. Galchenyuk -> good 4th liner
324. Vesey -------> average 4th liner
340. Anderson ---> average 4th liner

413. Barabanov --> 5th liner
425. Petan --------> 5th liner


Dmen (~250 total listed)

6. Rielly ----------> Good #1D
34. Muzzin -------> Good #2D

38. Brodie -------> Good #2D
75. Holl ----------> Average #3D

117. Dermott ----> Borderline #4D
139. Lehtonen ----> Good #5D

180. Sandin ------> Borderline #6D
181. Bogosian ---> Borderline #6D


And the Goalies likely rank around average overall.

You can really see there how aside from goaltending the one place that makes the most sense to upgrade would be adding another quality top-6 winger - a guy who ranks at least top-150 overall for forwards would really make this forward group sing.

Here's how rumoured available forwards rank (i put them into my own personal tiers):

75. T.Hall ------> borderline 1st liner
78. E.Kane -----> borderline 1st liner
110. K.Palmieri -> good 2nd liner
116. R.Rakell ---> good 2nd liner

163. A.Henrique -> borderline 2nd liner
177. J.DeBrusk --> borderline 2nd liner
181. M.Granlund -> borderline 2nd liner
193. N.Foligno ---> borderline 2nd liner

220. E.Staal ------> average 3rd liner
222. R.Getzlaf ---> average 3rd liner
237. M.Wood ---> average 3rd liner
239. V.Namestnikov -> average 3rd liner
247. B.Ryan -----> borderline 3rd liner
253. R.Dzingel --> borderline 3rd liner
256. T.Pearson --> borderline 3rd liner
281. C.Brown ----> borderline 3rd liner

385. S.Bennett ---> borderline 4th liner
391. J.Virtanen ---> borderline 4th liner


Obviously the first tier is the most attractive, though with the risk/money on the top 2, Palmieri/Rakell might actually be the best options.

The 2nd tier are all decent adds too - though tbh i'm surprised to see Henrique rated that highly. Not sure i trust that rating in particular.

The 3rd tier is pretty iffy - for me only Staal and Getzlaf would be all that interesting to add, just based on them potentially looking much better on the wing for us than they do as fairly tough usage Cs for their current teams, just like Thornton and Spezza were able to more impactful on the wing for us than they did at as 2/3Cs for their previous teams.

TBH I think I'd stay away from the rest of that 3rd tier and obviously stay away from the two western canadian bust duds in their own 4th tier there.

 

[Golden_Jet]

GSVA (Game Score Value Added) rankings at the 1/2 mark:


Forwards (~470 total listed):

2. Matthews --> super elite 1st liner
8. Marner -----> super elite 1st liner
23. Tavares ---> top 1st liner

58. Hyman ----> average 1st liner
59. Nylander --> average 1st liner
200. Thornton -> good 3rd liner

203. Kerfoot ---> good 3rd liner
212. Spezza ----> average 3rd liner
217. Boyd ------> average 3rd liner

218. Mikheyev --> average 3rd liner
272. Engvall ----> borderline 3rd liner
299. Simmonds -> good 4th liner

300. Galchenyuk -> good 4th liner
324. Vesey -------> average 4th liner
340. Anderson ---> average 4th liner

413. Barabanov --> 5th liner
425. Petan --------> 5th liner


Dmen (~250 total listed)

6. Rielly ----------> Good #1D
34. Muzzin -------> Good #2D

38. Brodie -------> Good #2D
75. Holl ----------> Average #3D

117. Dermott ----> Borderline #4D
139. Lehtonen ----> Good #5D

180. Sandin ------> Borderline #6D
181. Bogosian ---> Borderline #6D


And the Goalies likely rank around average overall.

You can really see there how aside from goaltending the one place that makes the most sense to upgrade would be adding another quality top-6 winger - a guy who ranks at least top-150 overall for forwards would really make this forward group sing.

Here's how rumoured available forwards rank (i put them into my own personal tiers):

75. T.Hall ------> borderline 1st liner
78. E.Kane -----> borderline 1st liner
110. K.Palmieri -> good 2nd liner
116. R.Rakell ---> good 2nd liner

163. A.Henrique -> borderline 2nd liner
177. J.DeBrusk --> borderline 2nd liner
181. M.Granlund -> borderline 2nd liner
193. N.Foligno ---> borderline 2nd liner

220. E.Staal ------> average 3rd liner
222. R.Getzlaf ---> average 3rd liner
237. M.Wood ---> average 3rd liner
239. V.Namestnikov -> average 3rd liner
247. B.Ryan -----> borderline 3rd liner
253. R.Dzingel --> borderline 3rd liner
256. T.Pearson --> borderline 3rd liner
281. C.Brown ----> borderline 3rd liner

385. S.Bennett ---> borderline 4th liner
391. J.Virtanen ---> borderline 4th liner


Obviously the first tier is the most attractive, though with the risk/money on the top 2, Palmieri/Rakell might actually be the best options.

The 2nd tier are all decent adds too - though tbh i'm surprised to see Henrique rated that highly. Not sure i trust that rating in particular.

The 3rd tier is pretty iffy - for me only Staal and Getzlaf would be all that interesting to add, just based on them potentially looking much better on the wing for us than they do as fairly tough usage Cs for their current teams, just like Thornton and Spezza were able to more impactful on the wing for us than they did at as 2/3Cs for their previous teams.

TBH I think I'd stay away from the rest of that 3rd tier and obviously stay away from the two western canadian bust duds in their own 4th tier there.

Well you can remove Dzingel, he and White both suffered knee injuries in last night Sens game.

 

[Zybalto]

Leafs defensively/in net so far this year:

5v5 (adjusted):

Corsi Against/60: 50.57 (2nd fewest in the division, 11th fewest in the NHL)
Shots Against/60: 27.64 (2nd fewest in the division, 10th fewest in the NHL)
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.08 (Fewest in the division, 13th fewest in the NHL)
Goals Against/60: 1.91 (Fewest in the division, 5th fewest in the NHL)
Team Save%: 93.08 (2nd highest in the division, 2nd highest in the NHL)

PK:

Corsi Against/60: 77.29 (Fewest in the division, 2nd fewest in the NHL)
Shots Against/60: 43.65 (Fewest in the division, 6th fewest in the NHL)
Expected Goals Against/60: 5.17 (Fewest in the division, 4th fewest in the NHL)
Goals Against/60: 8.8 (4th in the division, 20th fewest in the NHL)
Team Save%: 81.25 (7th in the division, 27th highest in the NHL)

All situations:

Corsi Against/60: 52.02 (2nd fewest in the division, 11th fewest in the NHL)
Shots Against/60: 28.32 (2nd fewest in the division, 8th fewest in the NHL)
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.38 (Fewest in the division, 7th fewest in the NHL)
Goals Against/60: 2.49 (Fewest in the division, 6th fewest in the NHL)
Team Save%: 91.22 (Highest in the division, 5th highest in the NHL)

Pretty much above average to amazing in everything outside of Andersen not being able to stop a beach ball on our excellent PK for some reason.

Out of the 42 keepers to play 50+ PK minutes this year:

Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 42.41 (8th Fewest out of 42)
Expected Goals Against/60: 4.72 (4th fewest out of 42)
.791 save% (38th out of 42)

Pretty brutal.

He actually hasn't been that bad 5v5 though:

Out of the 37 keepers to play 500+ 5v5 minutes this year:

Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 27.45 (10th Fewest out of 37)
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.1 (16th fewest out of 37)
.925 save% (13th out of 37)

Seems to be the only glaring thing stranding out on the list.

 

[zeke]

5v5

#5 gf% (#9 gf60, #7 ga60)
#4 xgf% (#3 xgf60, #8 xga60)

Even Strength

#4 gf% (#4 gf60, #7 ga60)
#4 xgf% (#2 xgf60, #8 xga60)

Power Play

#4 gf60
#1 xgf60

Penalty Kill

#18 ga60
#9 xga60


All Situations

#4 gf% (#5 gf60, #9 ga60)
#2 xgf% (#2 xgf60, #9 xga60)