Outstanding body of work last night from this trio. Not at all surprised to see the data supports that. This needs to be explored further. Each player was over 10 minutes total TOI, and they spent 8:58 together. It is massive to be able to trust your 4th line to absorb more minutes. It allows you to roll the lines, keep guys fresh and engaged. They did just that. To put it in perspective, Barabanov's highest total TOI this year was 7:56, but more often than not only averages ~5:30. Hopefully that showing was not a flash in the pan, but it certainly deserves a couple games in a row to prove it wasn't IMO
Leafs - By the Numbers
- Thread starter Critical13
- Start date
Outstanding body of work last night from this trio. Not at all surprised to see the data supports that. This needs to be explored further. Each player was over 10 minutes total TOI, and they spent 8:58 together. It is massive to be able to trust your 4th line to absorb more minutes. It allows you to roll the lines, keep guys fresh and engaged. They did just that. To put it in perspective, Barabanov's highest total TOI this year was 7:56, but more often than not only averages ~5:30. Hopefully that showing was not a flash in the pan, but it certainly deserves a couple games in a row to prove it wasn't IMO
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Encouraging company to be in at the top of the Goal differential per Games Played table:
The top 4 teams in the league in terms of Points Earned per Games Played are all from the Atlantic division.
The top 4 teams in the league in terms of Points Earned per Games Played are all from the Atlantic division.
Not to mention 3 of the top 4 teams come from the former Atlantic division. We as a fanbase, and league wide have been far too critical of this group for not getting past the first round. We got beat by a hot goalie in a 5 game series, and the remaining years we played Boston 2x and a presidents trophy winning capitals team. We had a 100pt season in 2018-19 only to have to play Boston 1st round...w/o home ice advantage. The playoff structure is a complete joke. Has been for years. Boston, Toronto, TB are top tier teams, and only one of them gets to make it past round 2 each year?????? c'mon NHL, figure this shit out. Hopefully this opens their eyes to how dumb their playoff structure is. I am really looking forward to this group this year, taking the steps they deserve to emerge as an elite team. I obviously want them to win the cup, but I will consider this year a success if they get a playoff round victory. It will do wonders for their confidence
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Ah HA!!
I've been noticing some shot clock shenanigans and some odd looking shot-plotting results this year and I think I figured out the conspiracy at the heart of it all, screwing up all our stats this year.
Seems like all our petty Canadian rivals have let their leafs-hating ways taint their ability to count shots and locations accurately.
5v5 score/venue adjusted
Leafs Home: 54.2cf% (#6), 55.6xgf% (#4), 70.7gf% (#2)
Leafs Away: 50.0cf% (#22), 47.1xgf% (#27), 52.7gf% (#11)
Small-town Canadian Anti-Leafs Hate, folks!
I've been noticing some shot clock shenanigans and some odd looking shot-plotting results this year and I think I figured out the conspiracy at the heart of it all, screwing up all our stats this year.
Seems like all our petty Canadian rivals have let their leafs-hating ways taint their ability to count shots and locations accurately.
5v5 score/venue adjusted
Leafs Home: 54.2cf% (#6), 55.6xgf% (#4), 70.7gf% (#2)
Leafs Away: 50.0cf% (#22), 47.1xgf% (#27), 52.7gf% (#11)
Small-town Canadian Anti-Leafs Hate, folks!
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
That's hilarious. Some of those are pretty huge disparities. I have no doubt the Habs home town stat guy counts almost every muffin from the side boards a quality scoring chance.
Wow that's hilarious
I refuse to believe there's been that much of a difference between our play on the road vs at home.
it doesn't surprise me at all. In the last game I remember thinking MTL had a slight edge in right of play for the first 10 mins, and I do say slight. Yet I look at the scoreboard and it like 8-1 in shots. I'm sorry, you just could not tell me by watching that game that they were dominated through 40 mins, and then turned it on in the last frame like they did against Vancouver. In my mind that was a relatively even game through 40, and we won the game in the 3rd, and overall the better team won. I was shocked to see MTL had generated 10 HD chances all game. Like was Josh Anderson's goal considered a HD chance? I am sorry, that's a routine save most of the time. The only game I felt like the leafs got utterly dominated in was game 3 against the canucks (first 2 periods) and a 10 minute stretch against the Sens in game 2. The rest of their play has been relatively even or in the Leafs favor.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Yeah Habs guy was the most egregious, which is why I hunted down these stats today. That first period we had 4 or 5 golden chances and they had none, yet all the shot and locations were heavily Habs favored.
But Habs guy wasn't the only one I noticed "missing" shots this year.
totally agree. Call it a conspiracy or not, but it always seems like the Leafs are on the short end of the SOG stat line. You have to wonder how bias the timekeepers are in opposing barns. Because if you are not a leaf fan, you are a leaf hater. No such thing a middle ground on this.
Attachments
crump
~ ~ (ړײ) ~ ~
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Here's a look at this seasons stats projected over a full season. The positives are in green, the concerns in yellow. Not included in the concerns are Freddies numbers....
Some observations:
Some observations:
- Matthews on paces for 71g, Marner on pace for 118 points including an 80 apples season
- JT and Nylander just not good enough.
- Rielly getting too many minutes.
- Jumbo Joe has been quite good.
- Boyd and Spezza putting up nearly 50pt pace with only 10 minutes a night...
- Simmer on pace for 30
- TJ Brodie has been okay, but really expect more offensively.
- The bottom of the chart is just a mess of players who are getting decent opportunities and creating nothing. Bogo on pace for 5 points...Dermott 7.
- Kerfoot actually close to a 40pt pace so far....interesting!
Gotta remember Rielly/Brodie had really bad numbers early.
5v5 adjusted the last 10 games (Since Feb. 1st):
Rielly/Brodie:
CF%: 51.47
xGF%: 62.04
GF%: 72.81
Muzzin/Holl:
CF%: 48.75
xGF%: 51.18
GF%: 45.31
Dermott/Bogo:
CF%: 46.22
xGF%: 52.32
GF%: 66.35
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Thanks!
My biggest qualm from the eye-test is Bogo, but those numbers look decent. Holl has had a very pedestrian/bad last 3-4 games from the eye test as well.
We still have some work to do, but I feel like our xGF% is the best it's been all season, and our xGA is slowly dropping.
They are good signs. In my eyes, we're the better team on 60-70% of nights, which is a huge improvement.
We hear a lot about the scoring but how are 5v5 forward defensive numbers so far this year?
I'll look at xGF% and goal differential too to sort out the two way beast players.
5v5 adjusted numbers (out of the 15 forwards with min 100 minutes played):
Top 5 Fewest Expected Goals against/60 this year on the Leafs among forwards:
1. Thornton
2. Engvall
3. Nylander
4. Vesey
5. Spezza
Top 5 Fewest Actual Goals against/60 this year on the Leafs among forwards:
1. Tavares
2. Thornton
3. Kerfoot
4. Nylander
5. Marner
Leafs with an xGF% above 50% ranking:
1. Hyman
2. Thornton
3. Matthews
4. Nylander
5. Marner
6. Spezza
7. Tavares
8. Engvall
9. Simmonds
10. Petan
Leafs with a goal differential above 50% ranking:
1. Marner
2. Thornton
3. Hyman
4. Matthews
5. Kerfoot
6. Tavares
7. Nylander
8. Boyd
Nice seeing Thornton high up on every list.
I'll look at xGF% and goal differential too to sort out the two way beast players.
5v5 adjusted numbers (out of the 15 forwards with min 100 minutes played):
Top 5 Fewest Expected Goals against/60 this year on the Leafs among forwards:
1. Thornton
2. Engvall
3. Nylander
4. Vesey
5. Spezza
Top 5 Fewest Actual Goals against/60 this year on the Leafs among forwards:
1. Tavares
2. Thornton
3. Kerfoot
4. Nylander
5. Marner
Leafs with an xGF% above 50% ranking:
1. Hyman
2. Thornton
3. Matthews
4. Nylander
5. Marner
6. Spezza
7. Tavares
8. Engvall
9. Simmonds
10. Petan
Leafs with a goal differential above 50% ranking:
1. Marner
2. Thornton
3. Hyman
4. Matthews
5. Kerfoot
6. Tavares
7. Nylander
8. Boyd
Nice seeing Thornton high up on every list.
Habs fans should be both happy and miserable. The good news is that your underlying numbers are amazing.....the bad news is that your 10.5 million dollar cap hit goalie has been killing you.
The Iceman
Registered User
- Sep 22, 2007
- 5,354
- 4,083
The Habs (Also called the donuts because they do not have a centre) will regret letting Julian loose. He is structured and built for the long haul.
Fire the GM who refuses to get a top 6 centre
6 goals in 54 games for their top 3 centres this year.
Randy Randerson
Registered User
so I was looking at numbers the other day and Thornton is an absolute possession animal so far, and to me he's looked the part but generally doesn't look like a slick play executor other than the odd terrific pass. I went back and looked at some career highlights, and he really has never looked like a terrific puck handler or scorer, what we're seeing this year matches up with a lot of the high points of his career by both the numbers and eye test. That's a pretty great find and makes me think he could be a pt/game-ish type player even if he's playing shortened seasons. If we continue to use him on the wing with fast/defensively responsible linemates that shelters his weaknesses (speed)....maybe he can keep this up for a couple more years, and you'd have to think that he will come back as long as he can...already like 7 years older than the average NHL retirement age, obviously enjoying himself, winning a cup or cups eliminates the "playoff choker" contentions that he always gets when people talk about his career.
And really, with how slick his linemates are, being able to hold the puck in the offensive zone & win possession battles is all you need for him to be extremely effective
Yea, They've actually had good possession and scoring chance numbers for a couple years now but lacked finish. It certainly looked like the Andersen/Toffoli pickups were a genius solution but they cant do everything themselves. If Price was actually playing merely average, I dont think we are even having this conversation though and are still talking about the Habs being one of the best teams in hockey. That tying goal he let in last night was just brutal.
Winnipeg is still an enigma but we are going to find out soon what they are made out of. 18 of 38 Games left against the Habs/Leafs.
Underlying numbers have them as the worst team in the division getting carried by Helle so far.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
I hate to keep saying that, but that matches the eye-test too. When I watch them, they seem to be getting burried, but then make an opportunistic high skill play to score a goal and stay in the game. It reminds me of the Leafs 2 years ago, when we would win games or be in games that we really didn't deserve to be in.
The Canadian division is getting much more interesting.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
I love it!
Also, I just wanted to point out a very basic statistic that I think we should all be very pleased with...
Here is a list of teams giving up more Goals Against per Game:
- Carolina
- Montreal
- Calgary
- Philly
- Washington
- Columbus
Some teams that are considered to be great defensively while the Leafs are mocked...
We're just barely behind Winnipeg, too, who is heavily leaning on their Vezina goalie.
