Leafs are the Victims: Editor in Leaf

[PromisedLand]

You should search some of his other articles. You'll be banging your head against the wall within an hour.

LMAO. No way in hell I read anything from this guy. he seems delusional like dubas

 

[Trapper]

LMAO. No way in hell I read anything from this guy. he seems delusional like dubas

I could have won the lottery, built a spaceship and been the first civilian in space. I just got unlucky.

 

[Racer88]

Dubas going to be a legend……..I’m at a loss for words to respond to this……it’s like a bad acid trip

 

[PromisedLand]

I could have won the lottery, built a spaceship and been the first civilian in space. I just got unlucky.

I could have dated every victoria secret model, owned amazon/microsoft and be awarded the most awesome human being to ever exist on this ball of rock spinning in an empty space

but even I just got unlucky

 

[Trapper]

I could have dated every victoria secret model, owned amazon/microsoft and be awarded the most awesome human being to ever exist on this ball of rock spinning in an empty space

but even I just got unlucky

I’m going to have to review our x-pected lottery winnings and predicted models dating for and calculate the new probabilities.

Don’t panic. Just keep doing the same thing. Results will change.

 

[ULF_55]

What a load of BULL. This is the dumbest thing I've read in the last week or so.

This is a results based business. Imagine running a business and not having any progress and some dumbass says "its not aobut results; the manager the business hired is a legend". What a f***ING MORON. Who is the author of this article? Tell him to F right off!

Dubas has absolutely RUINED the Leafs. Dubas fans piss the F outta me.

Leafs fans and the team have been the JOKE for a reason. Look at the picture

This chart seems to have very little to do with Dubas.

About the only consistency during their decades of ineptness are the fans and media.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Absolutely moronic article I almost stopped reading when he started with the expected goals nonsense.

Until someone can explain to me how a Mikheyev shot from the slot is counted the same as AM shooting from there...I don't value xGF or any of that stuff they trot out to say we are elite. You would need much, and I mean much more data on both the shooter, the goalie and the shot location to make this stat useful IMO.

 

[PromisedLand]

I’m going to have to review our x-pected lottery winnings and predicted models dating for and calculate the new probabilities.

Don’t panic. Just keep doing the same thing. Results will change.

Afterall it is the expected/60 that matters not the "real" per 60

expected goals, expected series wins, expected salary cap and expected stanley cups.... leafs and dubas are the legends of expected bullshit for sure

 

[PromisedLand]

This chart seems to have very little to do with Dubas.

About the only consistency during their decades of ineptness are the fans and media.

the last 3 years have tremendous contributions for dubas' incompetence

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I agree and that's my point. This isn't TB just driving thr net and all problems going away. Montreal beat a number of favored teams this playoffs and truthfully they looked to have outplayed Winnipeg and Vegas along the way.

Our stats and actually opportunities are alot closer to TB than WPG or VGK in the series played.

TB is more talented than us...we all agree on that. The real question is whether or not we are ever going to be willing to play like they do in order to win. We have talent but we also don't have a team mentality that will do whatever it takes to win. TB tried doing it with all skill and they realized it wasn't going to work. They fixed it with Coleman, Goodrow,Maroon, Bogo and Schenn. They are a very skilled team that can play you any way. We are a skilled team that can play you one way and if you take it away...we are done. That to me is the difference.

 

[Gallagbi]

Until someone can explain to me how a Mikheyev shot from the slot is counted the same as AM shooting from there...I don't value xGF or any of that stuff they trot out to say we are elite. You would need much, and I mean much more data on both the shooter, the goalie and the shot location to make this stat useful IMO.

Then look at the individual xGF count or HDCF by player

 

[Gallagbi]

TB is more talented than us...we all agree on that. The real question is whether or not we are ever going to be willing to play like they do in order to win. We have talent but we also don't have a team mentality that will do whatever it takes to win. TB tried doing it with all skill and they realized it wasn't going to work. They fixed it with Coleman, Goodrow,Maroon, Bogo and Schenn. They are a very skilled team that can play you any way. We are a skilled team that can play you one way and if you take it away...we are done. That to me is the difference.

I'd say that's garbage about playing one way.

We can play off the rush and we can play tight defensively. We can cycle and generate. We didn't breakdown against CBJ or Montreal much in the series. We didn't and haven't shown a willingness to "bang" and win a series that way, but that also doesn't make this team only able to win 1 way.

 

[Trapper]

Afterall it is the expected/60 that matters not the "real" per 60

expected goals, expected series wins, expected salary cap and expected stanley cups.... leafs and dubas are the legends of expected bullshit for sure

They should watch the playoffs and see how it is played. Look at other teams and see how the whole is cap managed.

Then construct a team to take full advantage of both, hopefully reducing the amount of luck needed to win. If the Cup is still luck to a degree, smart money is on a design that reduces the amount of it you need.

That’s just me.

 

[ottomaddox]

Toronto Maple Leafs: Kyle Dubas Will Come Out of This a Legend

"The Toronto Maple Leafs are the victims of a results-based industry that has really no idea how to evaluate a team that got very unlucky."

Why is editor in leaf so bad? Is he paid by the leafs?

This James Tanner reminds me of a few posters around these parts.

What the hell else can you do in a "Results based industry"? All pro teams are here to win!!! Losing results in trades, new GM, new coach, etc.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Then look at the individual xGF count or HDCF by player

Do they not factor the individual player into a teams xGF stat? If so, great, that means its accurate and we were just really unlucky a bunch of times in a row in the playoffs and we are all good.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I'd say that's garbage about playing one way.

We can play off the rush and we can play tight defensively. We can cycle and generate. We didn't breakdown against CBJ or Montreal much in the series. We didn't and haven't shown a willingness to "bang" and win a series that way, but that also doesn't make this team only able to win 1 way.

FFS...we can't even play a dump and chase game because of the way our team is built and our "Total Hockey possession" style that we play for some reason. We can cycle all day long on the outside...teams will let you do that because it's easier to defend. We end up having to dump it in because other teams trap us into it. Tampa was getting pucks in and retrieving them all series long. We can't do that very well. We hardly had any odd man rushes (Habs had way more and capitalized) ...so I stand by what I said...we cannot play a game that is kept to the outside all series long and expect to win. TB showed you need a bit of everything to win and we can't do that (yet?). Why is that a big problem for you?

 

[ToneDog]

Sorry stopped reading because the article made me puke.

Honestly think that article is going to make me sick for days.

 

[Gallagbi]

Do they not factor the individual player into a teams xGF stat? If so, great, that means its accurate and we were just really unlucky a bunch of times in a row in the playoffs and we are all good.

My understanding is that it measures the quality of opportunity rather than the shooter. Since it's based on shot large samples, it would generally assume an average shooter.

They do track it individually, and by team. So you can look up our teams xGF as a whole, then the individuals to see how someone like Matthews xGF in the series rates vs. Say a Danault or Gallagher. You could also look at it on a "rates" per 60 basis to see how it compares to the regular season.

Hyman -4.12
Matthews -3.92
Nylander -2.04
Marnwe -2
Kerfoot -1.72

We're our top 5 in the series. Toffoli was the top Hab with 1.93 then Suzuki at 1.72 for reference

FFS...we can't even play a dump and chase game because of the way our team is built and our "Total Hockey possession" style that we play for some reason. We can cycle all day long on the outside...teams will let you do that because it's easier to defend. We end up having to dump it in because other teams trap us into it. Tampa was getting pucks in and retrieving them all series long. We can't do that very well. We hardly had any odd man rushes (Habs had way more and capitalized) ...so I stand by what I said...we cannot play a game that is kept to the outside all series long and expect to win. TB showed you need a bit of everything to win and we can't do that (yet?). Why is that a big problem for you?

The problem is assuming missing 1 aspect means we can only play 1 way

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Toronto Maple Leafs: Kyle Dubas Will Come Out of This a Legend

"The Toronto Maple Leafs are the victims of a results-based industry that has really no idea how to evaluate a team that got very unlucky."

Why is editor in leaf so bad? Is he paid by the leafs?

This James Tanner reminds me of a few posters around these parts.

Didn’t even read it. Garbage excuse article. They are chokes not unlucky anything

 

[Mess]

In summary it appears that all of Leafs losing in a"Results Oriented Business", is simply unavoidable and a victimless crime, where simply bad luck is the only identifiable culprit, that does them in year after year after year.

Its a open-and-shut case really. As Management is great, players are great, cap management is great, analytics are great and its simply luck that is bad.

So since its all down to bad luck, Ive concluded the only thing missing from this article is a good doze of "reality", in its preparation.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Thing is, your interpretation of both the game and amateur blog statistics is completely wrong.

Nevermind your acceptance of abject failure.

Not much has changed since the Burke days with you, I see.

It seems like this poster watches the Leafs moving the puck around the outside of the ozone while Montreal boxes out and protects the low slot and net and thinks to themselves “wow we’re really dominating these guys! xGF through the roof”

Meanwhile Montreal is just crashing the net and scoring playoff goals

Theres a reason our offence dries up in the playoffs every year

 

[Stonehands1990]

Then look at the individual xGF count or HDCF by player

Do you think it’s a fluke that Montreal limited Matthews to 1 goal, Stone to 0 goals and Point to 0 goals? Do you think they just “didn’t convert”

Or did Montreal have a clear and concise game plan that isn’t pretty on the advanced stats side of the ledger but wins games when you don’t have a lot of skill?

 

[Menzinger]

It seems like this poster watches the Leafs moving the puck around the outside of the ozone while Montreal boxes out and protects the low slot and net and thinks to themselves “wow we’re really dominating these guys! xGF through the roof”

Meanwhile Montreal is just crashing the net and scoring playoff goals

Theres a reason our offence dries up in the playoffs every year

I wouldn't really described the Habs goal scoring that series as being the result of driving to the net or grinding out garbage goals. Most of their important ones seemed to come from the rush/error capitalization (the Gally game 5 OT blunder, Anderson's goal during game 1 ect).

 

[FraumBallard]

That'd be great. While I don't agree with the article he's reasoned it with examples and explained his positioned. We could really use more well reasoned responses around these parts.

Brevity is a thing.
Get to the point.
Facts are facts.
They aren’t EXPECTED facts or any of that pretend , hypothetical garbage.

 

[FraumBallard]

The NHL is a results based industry and that's precisely the point. It's tough to find much fault with wins. Lose, and the questions will be numerous. Have to hope that mainly running it back will be the right decision - if that's where this is ultimately heading - because hope is essentially what we'll have.

Zero chance of a Cup with Wonder Boy as pretend gm.
Zero.