Post-Game Talk: Leafs 2 Rangers 1

[Mess]

Boston has 5 games in hand and would have to win all 5 of them to pass Toronto. Tampa has 3 games in hand and would have to win all 3 or go 2-0-1 to pass. This hot streak is already doing a lot of work for us, our position is pretty advantageous.

I don't see Florida as a bubble team tbh. They're better than Boston and they've played Tampa extremely close both this year and last. Their offense is criminally underrated. If this is an "on" year for Bobrovsky, woe be to the rest of the conference.

I agree with your broad point that this has the makings of a very tight division. It would be foolish to go ahead and pencil them in up top during a November hot streak. Never get too high never get too low.

Your last point is exactly my point that his is a long season and we're still early days here to be declaring pre-season prognostications on final standing right or wrong after 18 games by the Leafs.

I only mentioned the games in hand to make a point that what appears a bigger lead that some believe has already proven Leafs can't end up 3rd or 4th and are clearly better than Boston this year... Leafs have 18 games played Boston 13 and Leafs are on a 5 game winning streak which means they banked 10 points in Boston in the standings, but the difference is that Boston simply haven't played those games not that the Leafs are burying them in the Atlantic standings.

As mentioned in point #1 above it wouldn't matter how Boston fared in those particular 5 games in hand either because Boston doesn't need to match the Leafs at game #18 for both to mean something its all about what happens after game 82.

Florida is still a bubble team that some myself included saw in tight battle with our Leafs in the Atlantic standings because while they're certainly on an upswing they're still not a proven and consistent playoff contender unlike TB and Boston that have some solid history of long-term success in the Div. Way to early to be counting those 2 teams out of the race IMO..

 

[LeafChief]

 

[LeafChief]

The Leafs moving back into the Atlantic and against much better QofC and as a result will be in a season long battle for positioning. Whoever finishes 4th in the Atlantic will be declared the official "bubble team". Still way too early to be declaring winners and losers after we haven't reached the quarter mark.

Jack Campbell has been playing outstanding hockey lately, its the main reason the Leafs are winning and why he stands atop the goalie stats in sv% and GAA. However we also know Campbell has never started more than 25 games in a season and has his own durability and injury history and Leafs didn't sign Mrazek at $3.5 mil X 2 years to play 10-12 games a year.

Right now Leafs are getting the bounces and the goaltending and putting early points in the bank which is great.. There will also come a time when they might be ravished by Covid or have injury concerns like other teams are currently facing adversity and then we will have to see how that plays out.. Leafs have played 12 of their first 18 games at home also, which is playing an early part in the standings as its always an advantage for home teams.

PS. We all know it really doesn't matter if the Leafs finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Div in the regular season, its all going to come down to being able to win a playoff round so as long as they make the playoffs that is really all that matters here. IMO

Oooof. Going to need you to explain the bolded in this one. Show your work.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

My buddy Dash is a pretty happy Leafs fan these days.

View attachment 481805

this picture is so damn adorable! So gorgeous!

 

[Mess]

I agree only 18 games have been played and we shouldn't be expressing anything with extreme certainty at the moment. I'm sure you called out anyone judging the team after 6 games in the same measured way. I tended to mostly stay away from the extreme toxicity of the delusional threads going on around then as they were basically equivalent to arguing Buffalo was going to be a 120+ point team and made a fool of most involved but I'm sure you were on board after only a few games in the same way you are looking at the big picture now right? We certainly needed more voices to calm folks down during that time and the few posts I made ran along the lines you are saying right now.

The team is on a 114 point pace right now and has won 10 of 11 games, is top 5 in the NHL for points since the start of the 2017 season and actually has more to give offensively when their shooting% normalizes. We all know Atlantic is the best division in hockey (and the Leafs have put up those points in the best division in hockey the whole time)but I just want to confirm that you want to go on record as saying that even if the Leafs finish 4th in the division with 114 points (which is actually possible looking at how good those 4 teams are), you would still call them a bubble team. That doesnt seem very measured (especially as they are 2-0 vs the other 3 teams so far) but I'm sure you have a reason why you would want to use wordplay here.

I suppose you could change the word "bubble team" to "wild card team" if you prefer to label the 4th place team in the Atlantic because they would be entering the playoffs in the wild card spot (if they qualify as one), where only the top 3 in each Div are guaranteed a playoff spot, and the wild card teams are simply the best of remaining teams in the conference, the 4th in the Atlantic is not guaranteed a spot thus on the bubble per se.

But in a way you have made my point earlier in that its the strength of the Atlantic Div that will force one team to the bubble of making the playoffs as either the 7th or 8th seeded team. Some fans appear to take offense with the naming of the wild card teams in the east as "bubble teams" and negative connotation to being "bad teams "when it simply means they didn't secure one to the top 3 spots in their Div.

Its a long season and pace today really doesn't confirm any assumptions as pace changes with each game, and thus much like declaring winner and losers in the first quarter of the season seems a little premature to me, with over 60+ games to go.

 

[Zybalto]

Oooof. Going to need you to explain the bolded in this one. Show your work.

Leafs score adjusted expected goal differential: 2nd in the NHL.

Leafs actual goal differential: 11th in the NHL.

Leafs PDO: 19th in the NHL (still under 1.000).

Make your own conclusions folks.

 

[zeke]

I suppose you could change the word "bubble team" to "wild card team" if you prefer to label the 4th place team in the Atlantic because they would be entering the playoffs in the wild card spot (if they qualify as one), where only the top 3 in each Div are guaranteed a playoff spot, and the wild card teams are simply the best of remaining teams in the conference, the 4th in the Atlantic is not guaranteed a spot thus on the bubble per se.

But in a way you have made my point earlier in that its the strength of the Atlantic Div that will force one team to the bubble of making the playoffs as either the 7th or 8th seeded team. Some fans appear to take offense with the naming of the wild card teams in the east as "bubble teams" and negative connotation to being "bad teams "when it simply means they didn't secure one to the top 3 spots in their Div.

Its a long season and pace today really doesn't confirm any assumptions as pace changes with each game, and thus much like declaring winner and losers in the first quarter of the season seems a little premature to me, with over 60+ games to go.

Nobody is taking offense.

Just noting clearly that no matter what weasel words you try to frame it with , you thought the Leafs were a mediocre team in tough to make the playoffs.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Leafs score adjusted expected goal differential: 2nd in the NHL.

Leafs actual goal differential: 11th in the NHL.

Leafs PDO: 19th in the NHL (still under 1.000).

Make your own conclusions folks.

NuMbErS aRe HaRd To CoMpReHeNd

 

[kb]

Accurate.

I try to be objective....

 

[Menzinger]

My response was to the excessive amount of people that put the Leafs into non-playoffs or the bubble as opposed to apparently they were always a great team in contention of the playoffs. Regardless, the Atlantic is always a very strong division.

Boston didn't sign Ullmark to a 4 year 20M contract to be a backup. He's their starter. Not sure why and how Rask is suddenly THE hope to turn around Bostons season. He's not. Swayman, the current backup, have been great as well. That's one heck of a strong stretch of an excuse for the Bruins. They are still good though and should be a tough team as they usually are, but come on... Rask? Tampa Bay lost their entire depth that made them scary. They are still good but just because they won the cup, it doesn't remove the fact that they lost a lot of players and certainly won't be able to play the system to be 10M over the cap again. I see that Montreal wasn't listed though in your list of teams... I'm pretty sure I kept reading about their amazing team this summer.

Lot's of hockey to go and things could go many different ways. Any team can go hot/cold and turn around their season. Right now, the Leafs are playing very good defensive hockey and it's ok to cheer for them. It's even ok to say they are better than you thought they were going to be instead of reverting into a ball of negativity with "What If" and "something something playoffs". It's almost like you want them to fail so badly.

I'd say there were a fair share predictions from the offseason that look downright laughable now. Especially the ones who thought the Habs would be the better team than the Leafs

Though the most surprising for me were the number of folks who thought the Sens were going to be quasi competitive. They're still likely a bottom 5-10 team quote easily

 

[Gabriel426]

I'd say there were a fair share predictions from the offseason that look downright laughable now. Especially the ones who thought the Habs would be the better team than the Leafs

Though the most surprising for me were the number of folks who thought the Sens were going to be quasi competitive. They're still likely a bottom 5-10 team quote easily

Pretty much.
I never think the Habs is a playoffs team but didn’t expect them to be this bad.
Know Sabres would suck.
Sens Will be exciting but they are really not that good.
Wings surprised me.

 

[TGB]

Leafs score adjusted expected goal differential: 2nd in the NHL.

Leafs actual goal differential: 11th in the NHL.

Leafs PDO: 19th in the NHL (still under 1.000).

Make your own conclusions folks.

Better yet, don't make your own conclusions and just enjoy the games.

Guys, take it from a professional logistical and data analyst, don't bother looking up all the fancy stats and numbers. You can know every possible number and every possible variable and still be wrong 99% of the time.

Well, guess what? Nothing is more unpredictable and random than human beings. Hockey in particular is loaded with random variables and nonlinear influences, so any claim of one particular magical number telling us all we need to know is foolhardy.
Probably the only sport I follow where the stats are in any way useful is baseball and that's because it's one pitcher, one batter one baseball, and one direction the baseball travels. Even then, we're talking 50% veracity at best.

In other words, the Leafs have an entire department dedicated to advanced mathematical analysis. They still can't get past the first round. If their eggheads can't make sense of all these numbers to produce a winning team, what in the world makes a bunch of random people posting at some internet forum think THEY can?

 

[Duffman955]

A lesson learned when the 3rd lowest scoring team in the league Columbus beat our Leafs who were the 3rd highest scoring team in the play-in round.

Every team knows to beat the Leafs you simply have to shut down the core 4 and your odds for success are great. However if the Leafs develop a strategy like presently where your core 4 are focused on defense and your can manufacture a goal or 2 from your support cast or defense and you support your goalie in your own end that you can still win games 2-1 when needed.,

Leafs have scored 3 or fewer goals in nearly 80% of their games this season and still have a winning record and are competitive behind strong goaltending and all players buying into a 2-way game and support and learning to win close games and low scoring games. Playoff hockey by design is lower scoring and tighter checking so you had better play a system that can compete under those restrictions and you can't just flip a switch come playoff time and think your offense can carry you, because its your defense that will.

Leafs team f***ing suck

Leafs are just lucky, that on those particular days the rival teams just sucked more

 

[Stephen]

What did everyone think of Adam Fox last night? He's a pretty silky smooth player with a good QB presence on the point and a great stretch pass but man, I'm just not seeing the hype or the Norris quality value. Give me Makar every day of the week.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

What did everyone think of Adam Fox last night? He's a pretty silky smooth player with a good QB presence on the point and a great stretch pass but man, I'm just not seeing the hype or the Norris quality value. Give me Makar every day of the week.

He was okay, I wouldn’t mind him on the Leafs but he was hardly dominant. He could be, but he didn’t seem that special.

 

[IPS]

Right now Leafs are getting the bounces

Oooof. Going to need you to explain the bolded in this one. Show your work.

Still curious to see the work shown.

By all accounts (both stats and eye test) the Leafs are systematically destroying teams with elite puck possession and defense during this hot streak but apparently it's just luck? Even though our shooting% is bottom-5 in the league right now?

 

[saltming]

He seems happy. What have you heard?

Well played

 

[saltming]

Pretty much.
I never think the Habs is a playoffs team but didn’t expect them to be this bad.
Know Sabres would suck.
Sens Will be exciting but they are really not that good.
Wings surprised me.

Without price the Habs are horrible

 

[Gabriel426]

Without price the Habs are horrible

I think even with Price, Habs is a bad team.

 

[notDatsyuk]

What did everyone think of Adam Fox last night? He's a pretty silky smooth player with a good QB presence on the point and a great stretch pass but man, I'm just not seeing the hype or the Norris quality value. Give me Makar every day of the week.

Not all that impressed.

There are several threads on the main board about how great he is, some even calling him the second best defenceman ever, and top five player ever.

A couple of times I've pointed out that he seems to do very well against weaker opponents, but not so much against the better ones. Last season virtually all his points came against the two or three weakest teams, but none against the two or three best. This year he has feasted on the weaker teams, but looked mediocre against Calgary, Edmonton, and now Toronto.

The usual argument is that when the Rangers win it's all because of him, but when they lose it's because the rest of the team played poorly, generally followed by insisting that he is an absolute elite top five all-time.

 

[Buds17]

What did everyone think of Adam Fox last night? He's a pretty silky smooth player with a good QB presence on the point and a great stretch pass but man, I'm just not seeing the hype or the Norris quality value. Give me Makar every day of the week.

Fox versus Makar is essentially a pick'em for me (slight edge to Makar perhaps). Points working in Fox's favour might be the lesser team around him overall IMO and being a 3rd round pick compared to a 4th overall selection.

 

[Gabriel426]

Better yet, don't make your own conclusions and just enjoy the games.

Guys, take it from a professional logistical and data analyst, don't bother looking up all the fancy stats and numbers. You can know every possible number and every possible variable and still be wrong 99% of the time.

Well, guess what? Nothing is more unpredictable and random than human beings. Hockey in particular is loaded with random variables and nonlinear influences, so any claim of one particular magical number telling us all we need to know is foolhardy.
Probably the only sport I follow where the stats are in any way useful is baseball and that's because it's one pitcher, one batter one baseball, and one direction the baseball travels. Even then, we're talking 50% veracity at best.

In other words, the Leafs have an entire department dedicated to advanced mathematical analysis. They still can't get past the first round. If their eggheads can't make sense of all these numbers to produce a winning team, what in the world makes a bunch of random people posting at some internet forum think THEY can?

That’s why I go with my OMEGA stats.
Like whoever scores in OT will be the winner of game.
All the winning team needs to do is score one more than the other team….
Lol

I cannot agree with what you said more.

 

[Gabriel426]

Fox versus Makar is essentially a pick'em for me (slight edge to Makar perhaps). Points working in Fox's favour might be the lesser team around him overall IMO and being a 3rd round pick compared to a 4th overall selection.

Fox plays a less attractive game than Makar.
To be the best comparison is Sid and Ovie when they first came in to the league.
Ovie makes play that make you jump out of the seat while Sid just dominates shift in and shift out.

 

[Buds17]

Fox plays a less attractive game than Makar.
To be the best comparison is Sid and Ovie when they first came in to the league.
Ovie makes play that make you jump out of the seat while Sid just dominates shift in and shift out.

Sounds good. I find Makar better offensively and Fox defensively. It more or less evens out in the end despite taking different journeys to get there. FTR, I prefer Crosby to Ovechkin!

 

[deprw]

As mentioned in point #1 above it wouldn't matter how Boston fared in those particular 5 games in hand either because Boston doesn't need to match the Leafs at game #18 for both to mean something its all about what happens after game 82.

Florida is still a bubble team that some myself included saw in tight battle with our Leafs in the Atlantic standings because while they're certainly on an upswing they're still not a proven and consistent playoff contender unlike TB and Boston that have some solid history of long-term success in the Div. Way to early to be counting those 2 teams out of the race IMO..

You really should be more afraid of Panthers than Bruins. Boston isn't 2016-2019 Boston anymore. They're older and bled assets for years. In the playoffs time they probably will give run for your money, but I think they'll have battle to get there. Panthers have been built for this season and utilized all possible cap space and assets for this season. Goaltending was question mark for both teams, but it seems that Bobrovsky is playing like he should with that contract. Quenneville situation was unfortunate for Panthers and might give them trouble, if they hit rough patch during the latter part of the season. Boston has steady coach, but their goaltending is bit of a enigma since Rask is coming from injury and Swayman being the starter and Ullmark paid the starter money.