LD Zeev Buium - University of Denver, NCAA (2024, 12th, MIN)

[Boxscore]

Maybe? I mean, for a massive, elite #1D with so much potential, he was the last of the bunch picked.

There's two reasons for that (size isn't even one - as I mentioned, a similarly sized d-man was also drafted before (well before!) him).

1) He is not as good as we think
2) He used some leverage to indicate his preferred teams.

The 1st one, we'll find out. GMs are wrong regularly, of course. But so are we (i.e., media, fans). We're just not in the spotlight, and we have far less information than they do.

The 2nd? GMs don't manage teams long enough to deal with high risk maybes. There are other factors of players that do matter, and that are important. The good GMs balance it well. The bad ones don't.

It's nice, in a theoretical world, to normalize a players profile to just peak, top of the lineup potential or down to one stat moneyball style, but even when that happened, it only really happened once.

If Buium told the Flyers (FYI: I'm not saying he did) that he wouldn't sign with them, why in the world would you draft him?

I mean, CG said he would love to play for the Flyers, and then just didn't, right? Flyers clearly misread that one.

Well, just my opinion, but...

1. We never know 100% if a prospect will live up to the hype. But, all we can go by is how Buium played this year, and he surpassed the scoring totals of recent Norris winners in the same program. And, the thing is, Buium isn't a one-trick pony...

This is directly from an NHL scout, "He was given some significant assignments on Denver's top pair, playing against the best college players on a nightly basis. Whether it was Cutter Gauthier, Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, you name it, Buium stood tall. Teams sent every weapon they had at him and he deflected it with ease. It was like watching Quinn Hughes all over again."

The fact that every single draft authority had Buium in the Top-8 (as low as 2nd overall) and Luchanko's average placement was 31 (with 18th being the highest and 45 being the lowest) speaks volumes. So does the eye test. And, yes, you are right, NHL teams repeatedly make terrible decisions. And the ones that do often pay the price. That doesn't excuse repeat offenses.

2. Possibly. Only he (and the clubs) know that. However, it's all speculation. There were no whispers at all about Buium hand-picking his teams. As for Gauthier, that is a more complex situation but it's being discussed on the Flyers board. There was a possible "bait and switch" between the Flyers and Gauthier that may have cost the player close to a million dollars. Admittedly, I don't know all the facts, but I refuse to believe passing on Buium because he shared an agent with Gauthier is a smart idea. Hell, draft him, watch his value rocket up, and trade him for a massive haul if that's the case. As I said, the Ducks turned Drysdale into Gauthier. You can never have enough elite assets and "drafting to need" is a short-sighted Cardinal Sin that all failing organizations make.

If the Flyers were a team like the Avs and Luchanko was NHL-ready and could step in next season as a 3C and help them win a Cup, then maybe you pick him over Buium, considering you're on the doorstep and have Makar, Toews, Girard, Gulyayev, and Behrens in your D org. But the Flyers?! Crazy decision.

 

[Prior]

Feel very comfortable in saying that the 5 defensemen that went before Buium could not replicate his season in the NCAA (and one didn’t). Also feel comfortable in saying that if you put him in a lesser league like the CHL and let him play against over-matched teenagers he similarly puts up a historic type season and we get to hear about a famed elite offensive upside.

Projecting out 18yr olds is an inexact science but feel just as good about his NHL prospects as any player in this draft.

 

[Boxscore]

Feel very comfortable in saying that the 5 defensemen that went before Buium could not replicate his season in the NCAA (and one didn’t). Also feel comfortable in saying that if you put him in a lesser league like the CHL and let him play against over-matched teenagers he similarly puts up a historic type season and we get to hear about a famed elite offensive upside.

Projecting out 18yr olds is an inexact science but feel just as good about his NHL prospects as any player in this draft.

Agreed. In 4-5 years he will be one of the 3 best players drafted, imho. I was sold on Makar and Fox when I spent a week watching them play in person at the World Juniors in Buffalo. I watched Buium and saw the same poise, skill, flair, calmness, and upside. He is a gem.

 

[majormajor]

Grant McCagg mentioned 2-3 weeks before the draft that the Ducks were focusing on Sennecke and Yakemchuk and Verbeek didn't like the idea of drafting Russians. At the time I just thought it was another "insider" spouting nonsense but in retrospect I think his connections were 100% accurate. He was the first to connect Sennecke to Anaheim at a time when it just seemed completely unlikely. The Ducks head of scouting indicated that in the days before the draft the team was focused on two players with Sennecke winning out. I'll bet McCagg was right and the other player was Yakemchuk.

A long way of saying that Buium was never going to be selected by the Ducks. The late betting was almost entirely driven by Marek's prediction which turned out to be very wrong.

I've been saying for six months that Yakemchuk feels like a Ducks pick. It could have been him.

And I don't think there's anything surprising about the Sennecke pick either. Late bloomer with outrageously high upside, that the Ducks ignore consensus rankings on? That fits them like a glove too. I had Sennecke 5th and Yakemchuk 7th, and I've come to expect them to take my guys very high, they did it three years in a row before this year.

I listen to McCagg too but my sense is more that he's plugged in to what some other scouts are saying, largely through what they see, not necessarily what specific teams think. He'll call the late movement pretty well but I could have told you the same thing. The playoff performers, the big guys, the key positions, the guys that are still growing, you can tell who is going to jump up the lists and who will tumble when teams get serious. There is an unserious quality to McKenzie's mid season lists and every other scouting outlet I can think of. McCagg gets ahead of that game. But he'll also predict a dozen different names for a pick at one point or another. He didn't go all in on Yak + Sennecke to the Ducks.

And that's my long way of saying that we don't really know who the other player was that the Ducks were considering. It could have been Buium or Yakemchuk.

 

[tomd]

I've been saying for six months that Yakemchuk feels like a Ducks pick. It could have been him.

And I don't think there's anything surprising about the Sennecke pick either. Late bloomer with outrageously high upside, that the Ducks ignore consensus rankings on? That fits them like a glove too. I had Sennecke 5th and Yakemchuk 7th, and I've come to expect them to take my guys very high, they did it three years in a row before this year.

I listen to McCagg too but my sense is more that he's plugged in to what some other scouts are saying, largely through what they see, not necessarily what specific teams think. He'll call the late movement pretty well but I could have told you the same thing. The playoff performers, the big guys, the key positions, the guys that are still growing, you can tell who is going to jump up the lists and who will tumble when teams get serious. There is an unserious quality to McKenzie's mid season lists and every other scouting outlet I can think of. McCagg gets ahead of that game. But he'll also predict a dozen different names for a pick at one point or another. He didn't go all in on Yak + Sennecke to the Ducks.

And that's my long way of saying that we don't really know who the other player was that the Ducks were considering. It could have been Buium or Yakemchuk.

You may be right and we'll probably never know but I'd bet a lot of money that I don't have that Verbeek would never ever ever take a 6' D at 3OA. Especially since organizationally LHD is arguably their strongest position.

 

[majormajor]

You may be right and we'll probably never know but I'd bet a lot of money that I don't have that Verbeek would never ever ever take a 6' D at 3OA. Especially since organizationally LHD is arguably their strongest position.

Sometimes you just have to ask - how good do we think this player is going to be? They also have a super abundance of high upside young forwards, but they took Sennecke anyways.

 

[Mattb124]

@Juxtaposer

There were 82 defenders in the NHL 6’0” or shorter in the NHL last season, including 5 of them who were top 10 in Norris voting last season.

Buium wasn’t seen as the top choice for D-man in this class, but it’s sure as shit wasn’t because he was 6’0 instead of 6’1. Like how much of a difference do you realistically think one inch would make in projecting how he will turn out as a NHL player?

Why was it then?

 

[Circulartheory]

I think people are over thinking this.

Buium was picked after all the other dmen simply because the other dmen prospects has 1 or 2 tools that jump out a bit more. Buium isn't as big as Levshunov or Silayev, as physical as Dickinson, as dynamic offensively as Parekh or those big shot/big size/good skating of Yakemchuk.

Teams aren't picking the best players right now, they are picking the prospects with the most interesting tools, and will be trusting they will be putting them together, cooking them, and molding them over the next 3 years.

So I see why teams drafted the others first. With that said, I still had Buium #5, after Levshunov. Silayev close at #6. Based on limited shift viewings of the others, I found that while Yakemchuk and Parekh most definitely have the higher upside with the more interesting tools, I also found their play fairly one-note

 

[OKR]

Why was it then?

Don’t know, but the idea that out of all the several factors it takes to be a hockey player, teams decided to skip on a player is because he is 6’0”” instead of 6’1” is imo insane.

That’s literally equilevant to tip of a finger, what possible difference could that make?

 

[57special]

If Buium was RH'ed he would've been picked higher. It's as simple as that. Dickinson and Silayev were also picked later, I presume for the same reason, as size was certainly not an issue with them.

 

[CanadienShark]

I am now biased but I don’t really agree with the high floor low ceiling whatsoever

I see moderate floor, high ceiling, personally. Pretty safe bet to be top 4, could go much higher.

 

[tomd]

If Buium was RH'ed he would've been picked higher. It's as simple as that. Dickinson and Silayev were also picked later, I presume for the same reason, as size was certainly not an issue with them.

Yes, coincidence or not the top six D picks went RHD first roughly in order of size and then LHD second exactly in order of size.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Yes, coincidence or not the top six D picks went RHD first roughly in order of size and then LHD second exactly in order of size.

Yup and it's not even that surprising. The last few cup winners have had alot of big defenseman who skate well. That's why I thought Silayev and Dickinson would go higher...it's a copycat league.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Two things about Buium: 1) he played on a stacked team (So did Dickenson and so did Parekh). Yes, Buium looked great, but it's easier to dominate when you're surrounded by excellent players. 2) His size. Don't get me wrong, he's an elite prospect, but I think when GMs were ranking the D, his size hurt him a bit.

 

[Dack]

Everyone keeps harping on the fact that he's an NCAA player but I really think that other teams just liked other guys more, for reasons of handedness & fit or traits or whatever. I mean I had him ranked like 4/6 for the D this year and I don't think it's crazy that each team had a different guy as their top D this year.

The Senators have Chabot and Sanderson as top 4 LHD. They decided to bet on Yakemchuk's size, skill and grit RHS as a fit next to those guys.

If I had to guess Calgary wanted upside and like Parekh's offensive game better. It's possible nationality factored in on this one but I think Calgary just came in at the start of their rebuild and wanted to swing for the moon. Parekh is no bigger than Buium and though the Flames have been burned before up until this year they've never shied away from Americans.

The bulk of NJ's defensive prospects are smaller puck movers and offensive guys. Luke Hughes being there has already given them a long term PPQB. I think Silayev fills a unique role, for them, a big shutdown defenseman is a great future partner for someone like Seamus Casey.

Then San Jose just took their best guy remaining. Is that so hard to believe? There's not exactly a lot of consensus around this draft and there's certainly enough people who preferred Dickinson's tools over Buium's refined game. Plus San Jose isn't a small Canadian market, there's 0 reason to pass on Buium if they like him more than Dickinson.

Every single one of these teams could have ranked Buium as their 2nd best D avaliable but if they like one guy more than he's going to fall. Personally I think Minnesota got a really good player at 12 but I doubt that every team saw him as BPA and then talked themselves into passing on him.

 

[wickedwitch]

Two things about Buium: 1) he played on a stacked team (So did Dickenson and so did Parekh).

Again, Buium was 2nd on his team in scoring only 6 points behind the leading scorer (with 2 fewer games than said leading scorer). The stacked team argument is so bizarre to me when he's 2nd on his team in scoring as a defenseman.

 

[Larry44]

Again, Buium was 2nd on his team in scoring only 6 points behind the leading scorer (with 2 fewer games than said leading scorer). The stacked team argument is so bizarre to me when he's 2nd on his team in scoring as a defenseman.

I hope Buium proves them all wrong. How could his size be an issue when the best Dmen in the league include Quinn Hughes 5'10", Cale Makar 5'11", Adam Fox 5'11", Josh Morrissey 6', Morgan Rielly 6'1" in the top 10 in D scoring and other smaller leading D include Gostisbehere, Karlsson, Forsling, etc.

Briere's admission that the Flyers went for a C instead of BPA because they have small D like York, Drysdale and Andrae in their system is a real indictment of how blindly focused the Flyers' management team was. Luchanko might be the next big thing, but he's more likely to top out at 2C, or he could bust.

Buium is very likely going to be a star in the NHL, a minute-munching puck mover who logs big minutes on winning teams. He'll be doing that for a few years while the Flyers search desperately for a 1D, or even a real 2D....

 

[SjMilhouse]

Everyone keeps harping on the fact that he's an NCAA player but I really think that other teams just liked other guys more, for reasons of handedness & fit or traits or whatever. I mean I had him ranked like 4/6 for the D this year and I don't think it's crazy that each team had a different guy as their top D this year.

The Senators have Chabot and Sanderson as top 4 LHD. They decided to bet on Yakemchuk's size, skill and grit RHS as a fit next to those guys.

If I had to guess Calgary wanted upside and like Parekh's offensive game better. It's possible nationality factored in on this one but I think Calgary just came in at the start of their rebuild and wanted to swing for the moon. Parekh is no bigger than Buium and though the Flames have been burned before up until this year they've never shied away from Americans.

The bulk of NJ's defensive prospects are smaller puck movers and offensive guys. Luke Hughes being there has already given them a long term PPQB. I think Silayev fills a unique role, for them, a big shutdown defenseman is a great future partner for someone like Seamus Casey.

Then San Jose just took their best guy remaining. Is that so hard to believe? There's not exactly a lot of consensus around this draft and there's certainly enough people who preferred Dickinson's tools over Buium's refined game. Plus San Jose isn't a small Canadian market, there's 0 reason to pass on Buium if they like him more than Dickinson.

Every single one of these teams could have ranked Buium as their 2nd best D avaliable but if they like one guy more than he's going to fall. Personally I think Minnesota got a really good player at 12 but I doubt that every team saw him as BPA and then talked themselves into passing on him.

Grier more or less said they had Dickinson ranked higher on their board and stuck with it not expecting him to be available there.

 

[roon]

I don’t know how more obtuse you can get. Clearly, many teams did not view him as the top defenseman in the class. Buium is an HF darling but he is clearly not the top defenseman in the class in the eyes of most NHL scouts because five defensemen were selected before him and one team deliberately traded down to avoid him.

The only reason I can think of that NHL teams do not think he is the best defenseman in the class is because he is 6’0”, which IS undersized by today’s NHL defenseman standard. The Flyers specifically said that they passed on him because he is undersized.

If you don’t think he slid to 13th because of his size, then please, I invite you to have your own opinion.

Ahh yes - the Flyers is DEFINATELY the franchise to look to when it comes to making intelligent drafting decisions.

 

[docbenton]

I think Buium was the 2nd best prospect in this draft. He's more dynamic than any other defenseman and also probably the closest the NHL as well in terms of his mental processing of the game. The only good reason to not select him above the other defensemen IMO is concern about his willingness to sign with the team that drafts him. Handedness or size is just not good enough of a reason when there's a significant gap in demonstrated ability.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

To Juxtaposer’s point, I don’t think this trend is really all that new. Denis Potvin was seen as an undersized defenseman 40 years ago at six feet.

 

[TT1]

reminds me of the year Dobson got drafted, he looked like a surefire stud but for some reason he ended up dropping, coincidentally they both should have been top 5 prospects (of course it remains to be seen if Buium is a top 5 caliber player) but went #12

 

[Oak]

reminds me of the year Dobson got drafted, he looked a surefire stud but for some reason he ended up dropping, coincidentally they both should have been top 5 prospects (of course it remains to be seen if Buium is a top 5 caliber player) but went #12

Dobsons skating was always a concern.He has some of the slowest feet around, but has proved to the naysayers he can make up for it with positioning, poise with the puck, and hockey iq.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Whatever the reason, it seems like a perfect match for him and the Wild. With Faber, Spurgeon, and Brodin around for partners and support, its hard to imagine many easier transitions. The opportunity to run the PP point with Kaprizov and Boldy on the flanks and JEE on top of the goalie for the foreseeable future has to make his mouth water.

 

[57special]

To Juxtaposer’s point, I don’t think this trend is really all that new. Denis Potvin was seen as an undersized defenseman 40 years ago at six feet.

I don't recall that, at all. Potvin was a very solid player, and no one that I can remember talked about his lack of size.