LD Zeev Buium - University of Denver, NCAA (2024, 12th, MIN)

[Bond]

Cool, that does not run contrary to my point. If a team does not see #1D potential in Zeev Buium, then they will not draft him high because NHL teams value size in non-elite defensemen.

I personally do believe in Buium. He was ranked #3 on my 2024 board. I am merely explaining why I think he fell based on current NHL trends.

Yeah, teams really stayed away from smaller players this draft. Way less small guys picked.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yeah, teams really stayed away from smaller players this draft. Way less small guys picked.

I think I read a stat that there were only three defensemen selected in the entire 2024 draft that were under 5’11” or under and only seven selected 6’0” or under. I still think it’s silly but that’s undeniably where the NHL is headed.

 

[thedjpd]

I think I read a stat that there were only three defensemen selected in the entire 2024 draft that were under 5’11” or under and only seven selected 6’0” or under. I still think it’s silly but that’s undeniably where the NHL is headed.

I agree with you.

Unless they think there's a Norris level d-man in a 5'11 or 6'0 body, they'll pass for size to similarly (even not quite so) for a 6'2+ version.

Look at Brannstrom who just wasn't qualified by OTT now - 0 value. 25 y/o, mid pairing, solid overall. Small.

 

[Bond]

I think I read a stat that there were only three defensemen selected in the entire 2024 draft that were under 5’11” or under and only seven selected 6’0” or under. I still think it’s silly but that’s undeniably where the NHL is headed.

Didn't actually verify the below but 223 draft v 24 draft apparently

5'10 and under: from 30 to 10
6'4" and over: from 33 to 50

 

[Juxtaposer]

I agree with you.

Unless they think there's a Norris level d-man in a 5'11 or 6'0 body, they'll pass for size to similarly (even not quite so) for a 6'2+ version.

Look at Brannstrom who just wasn't qualified by OTT now - 0 value. 25 y/o, mid pairing, solid overall. Small.

Great example. Or Adam Boqvist who is a passable bottom pairing RHD and PPQB still being out of a job. Bottom line right now is that if you are not an elite NHL defenseman or at least an elite offensive defenseman, you better be 6’1”+ or teams aren’t really interested in you.

 

[Oak]

Maybe but the 3 best dmen in the league are 6’0” foot and shorter

"best"

 

[OKR]

Name them.

23-24: Forsling
22-23: Dunn, Montour, Spurgeon
21-22: Weegar, Faulk, Letang

Fact is, if the team thinks you’re good enough to play in the league they’re not gonna pass on you because you’re 6’0 and not 6’1.

 

[Juxtaposer]

23-24: Forsling
22-23: Dunn, Montour, Spurgeon
21-22: Weegar, Faulk, Letang

Fact is, if the team thinks you’re good enough to play in the league they’re not gonna pass on you because you’re 6’0 and not 6’1.

So again, Letang, Spurgeon, and Faulk are past their primes and don’t figure into NHL defensemen trends moving forward.

Fact is, teams are not drafting 6’0” defensemen right now.

 

[MuckOG]

So again, Letang, Spurgeon, and Faulk are past their primes and don’t figure into NHL defensemen trends moving forward.

Fact is, teams are not drafting 6’0” defensemen right now.

I will agree that if the prospect isn't projected to be a top pairing player, it's safer to go for size (especially in the later rounds). But I still maintain that for a player like Buium who is projected to be a #1/#2 guy, size isn't the biggest determining factor for why he dropped to 12.

 

[OKR]

So again, Letang, Spurgeon, and Faulk are past their primes and don’t figure into NHL defensemen trends moving forward.

Fact is, teams are not drafting 6’0” defensemen right now.

Teams are not deliberately skipping on drafting 6’0 defender that’s projected to be top of his class because they’re not 6’1, that inch doesn’t mean anything.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Teams are not deliberately skipping on drafting 6’0 defender that’s projected to be top of his class because they’re not 6’1, that inch doesn’t mean anything.

I don’t know how more obtuse you can get. Clearly, many teams did not view him as the top defenseman in the class. Buium is an HF darling but he is clearly not the top defenseman in the class in the eyes of most NHL scouts because five defensemen were selected before him and one team deliberately traded down to avoid him.

The only reason I can think of that NHL teams do not think he is the best defenseman in the class is because he is 6’0”, which IS undersized by today’s NHL defenseman standard. The Flyers specifically said that they passed on him because he is undersized.

If you don’t think he slid to 13th because of his size, then please, I invite you to have your own opinion.

 

[OKR]

@Juxtaposer

There were 82 defenders in the NHL 6’0” or shorter in the NHL last season, including 5 of them who were top 10 in Norris voting last season.

Buium wasn’t seen as the top choice for D-man in this class, but it’s sure as shit wasn’t because he was 6’0 instead of 6’1. Like how much of a difference do you realistically think one inch would make in projecting how he will turn out as a NHL player?

 

[thedjpd]

@Juxtaposer

There were 82 defenders in the NHL 6’0” or shorter in the NHL last season, including 5 of them who were top 10 in Norris voting last season.

Buium wasn’t seen as the top choice for D-man in this class, but it’s sure as shit wasn’t because he was 6’0 instead of 6’1. Like how much of a difference do you realistically think one inch would make in projecting how he will turn out as a NHL player?

It's not an accident, though, that 12 teams passed up on him - 4 defenseman of which are bigger than 6'2 (some much), and only one who is similarly sized and still picked before him - but with absolute elite offensive traits.

We can frame those as mistakes of those teams, sure, but it does seem like NHL teams did not view him as highly as the rest of us.

For this, there could be multiple reasons, including stupidity, but clearly this was a trend. This isn't a situation where he was one of the first defenseman drafted becasue goalies and forwards were selected so anybody drafting on need passed - he was literally the last picked "high end" defenseman before a tier drop, and that's cause for alarm.

Like I said, it doesn't mean anything to his actual success or how good he'll become, but it seems like his skill set is the 6th most desired in this particular draft. It's pretty easy to see the logic here: unless you have absolute elite traits (Parekh) or can do many things well, with size (the others), a small-ish all around d-man doesn't seem to be so highly valued, even with historic production.

It may be a mistake - there always is every draft - but certainly size seems to be the conclusion, unless his agent said he'd only play for certain teams (this can also be true, but we'll never know this part).

 

[Kcoyote3]

@Juxtaposer

There were 82 defenders in the NHL 6’0” or shorter in the NHL last season, including 5 of them who were top 10 in Norris voting last season.

Buium wasn’t seen as the top choice for D-man in this class, but it’s sure as shit wasn’t because he was 6’0 instead of 6’1. Like how much of a difference do you realistically think one inch would make in projecting how he will turn out as a NHL player?

It definitely was because he is 6 foot and left handed. If he’s 6 2 and right handed he’s a top 5 pick.

 

[majormajor]

Like I said, it doesn't mean anything to his actual success or how good he'll become, but it seems like his skill set is the 6th most desired in this particular draft. It's pretty easy to see the logic here: unless you have absolute elite traits (Parekh) or can do many things well, with size (the others), a small-ish all around d-man doesn't seem to be so highly valued, even with historic production.

I think the Parekh and Yakemchuk picks are very possibly because of the American factor. Calgary and Ottawa are very nervous about that right now.

And yes him being 6'0 is a huge part of it too. I think he could have gone top 5 if not for that. I think the rumors that Anaheim were considering him at #3 are likely true. The draft can go like that, a guy can go #3 or #12 depending on one team's decision. He could have been the second or third choice for a lot of clubs.

I think Buium has the skill to be a 60+ pt D, but teams are very risk averse and I think put too much weight on downside outcomes. Like if he's not a top scorer, well we don't want 6'0 D. I think the upside outcomes should be weighted more heavily and also happen to think that Buium's "B game" is outstanding. Even if he's not scoring that's a guy you want out on the ice, much like a Forsling or Spurgeon.

 

[HighLifeMan]

I do wonder if teams questioned Buium's ability to provide a multifaceted offensive approach at the NHL level. His shot is not necessarily a weapon nor strength of his, and he doesn't have a strong history of scoring many goals either. Furthermore he had just 75 shots on net this past year.

I am surprised that he was the last of the big name defenders off of the board, but we heard all along that it was a toss up and that they could all realistically go in any order. No doubt that Minnesota should be extremely thrilled to get a talent of his caliber at 12.

 

[MuckOG]

It's not an accident, though, that 12 teams passed up on him - 4 defenseman of which are bigger than 6'2 (some much), and only one who is similarly sized and still picked before him - but with absolute elite offensive traits.

We can frame those as mistakes of those teams, sure, but it does seem like NHL teams did not view him as highly as the rest of us.

For this, there could be multiple reasons, including stupidity, but clearly this was a trend. This isn't a situation where he was one of the first defenseman drafted becasue goalies and forwards were selected so anybody drafting on need passed - he was literally the last picked "high end" defenseman before a tier drop, and that's cause for alarm.

Like I said, it doesn't mean anything to his actual success or how good he'll become, but it seems like his skill set is the 6th most desired in this particular draft. It's pretty easy to see the logic here: unless you have absolute elite traits (Parekh) or can do many things well, with size (the others), a small-ish all around d-man doesn't seem to be so highly valued, even with historic production.

It may be a mistake - there always is every draft - but certainly size seems to be the conclusion, unless his agent said he'd only play for certain teams (this can also be true, but we'll never know this part).

There are a number of reasons for teams passing on him, that have nothing to do with size. The NHL has always placed a premium on right handed defensemen, some teams are wary of NCAA players refusing to sign, especially American players, some teams are looking for different skill sets, and yes, some teams place a premium on size.

 

[thedjpd]

There are a number of reasons for teams passing on him, that have nothing to do with size. The NHL has always placed a premium on right handed defensemen, some teams are wary of NCAA players refusing to sign, especially American players, some teams are looking for different skill sets, and yes, some teams place a premium on size.

I touched on this at the end - I don't think it was all size. I do think Buium told some teams to F off. I heard he wanted to stay near the midwest. But all speculation.

 

[MuckOG]

I touched on this at the end - I don't think it was all size. I do think Buium told some teams to F off. I heard he wanted to stay near the midwest. But all speculation.

That's fair.

It's also important to note that good players always fall, every year it seems like. Matt Boldy fell to the #12 pick, why did that happen? Who knows for sure. But I bet in a re-draft he gets picked no lower than 3rd.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I agree with you.

Unless they think there's a Norris level d-man in a 5'11 or 6'0 body, they'll pass for size to similarly (even not quite so) for a 6'2+ version.

Look at Brannstrom who just wasn't qualified by OTT now - 0 value. 25 y/o, mid pairing, solid overall. Small.

FWIW, If Brannstrom played exactly like he did last year, but had a larger frame - he's be a solid 2nd pairing Dman IMO. I don't mean a frame like Zadorov either... I just mean someone big enough to not get muscled off the puck so easily.

That said, Brannstrom is 2 inches shorter than Buium.

 

[Boxscore]

You could be right, but if PHI decided they didn't want a moderately sized, offensive LHD, i get it. I really like Luchanko, and him being measured at 5'11", and close to 190 at the Combine further added to his rise in the rankings. Smart, fast, two way player with good playmaking ability.

Well, if you look at the last 4 Norris winners:

Hughes
Karlsson
Makar
Fox

... Buium is right in their wheelhouse size-wise and he outproduced Hughes, Makar, and Fox during his historic NCAA season. If the Flyers decided they "didn't want a moderately sized, offensive D" who outperformed recent Norris trophy winners at the same age of development, then their severely flawed reasoning is exactly why they haven't won a Cup in almost 50 years.

On every respected draft listing or scouting report, Buium was a consensus top-4 D prospect in this draft, usually top-3. In fact, in TSN's final ranking, Buium was ranked 4th overall among all prospects, regardless of position. The same consensus had Luchanko's average ranking at 31.

As for Luchanko, sure, nice player. He's a smallish center who scored 20 goals in the OHL during his draft year. So we're not talking about John Tavares here. He's the type of player you "try to trade down from 32 to get" instead of reaching at 12 and passing on Buium.

There's zero data-backed, analytical, or eye-test evidence that places Luchanko ahead of Buium... just one team's obsession with drafting for immediate need and overvaluing a solid, two-way Canadian center. It's likely the same reason Scott Laughton is still a Flyer despite them going through a rebuild and teams expressing genuine interest.

If the Flyers didn't want Buium long-term, they could have drafted him, watched his value skyrocket after dominating the NCAA once again, and then used him as the main cog in a deal for an elite forward prospect, like the Ducks did when they traded Drysdale to Philly for Gauthier. Drafting Luchanko when Buium was there for the taking was never a good idea.

 

[thedjpd]

Well, if you look at the last 4 Norris winners:

Hughes
Karlsson
Makar
Fox

... Buium is right in their wheelhouse size-wise and he outproduced Hughes, Makar, and Fox during his historic NCAA season. If the Flyers decided they "didn't want a moderately sized, offensive D" who outperformed recent Norris trophy winners at the same age of development, then their severely flawed reasoning is exactly why they haven't won a Cup in almost 50 years.

On every respected draft listing or scouting report, Buium was a consensus top-4 D. In fact, in TSN's final ranking, Buium was ranked 4th overall among all prospects, regardless of position. The same consensus had Luchanko's average ranking at 31.

As for Luchanko, sure, nice player. He's a smallish center who scored 20 goals in the OHL during his draft year. So we're not talking about John Tavares here. He's the type of player you "try to trade down from 32 to get" instead of reaching at 12 and passing on Buium.

There's zero data-backed, analytical, or eye-test evidence that places Luchanko ahead of Buium... just one team's obsession with drafting for immediate need and overvaluing a solid, two-way Canadian center. It's likely the same reason Scott Laughton is still a Flyers despite them going through a rebuild and teams expressing genuine interest.

If the Flyers didn't want Buium long-term, they could have drafted him, watched his value skyrocket after dominating the NCAA once again, and then used him as the main cog in a deal for an elite forward prospect, like the Ducks did when they traded Drysdale to Philly for Gauthier. Drafting Luchanko when Buium was there for the taking was never a good idea.

I think this is an oversimplification of his production. It ramped up during the 2nd half of the year, which is why he was a late riser. Crap team so he didn't draw much attention for a while. Also tracks for his relative age.

I think just saying that you could have traded down to get him is not have a full view of the information that the Flyers had at the time.

Do I think it warranted not drafting Buium? No, I don't agree with the pick; but I do believe that Buium had his 'team preferences' and seeing as that's now becoming a trend for NCAA folks, it does seem like teams are taking notice of it.

As with any trend, it starts off surprising and really benefits the teams that it "works for" (i.e., MIN in this case). But I think we'll see more of this in the next few until there's an adjustment to the CBA made.

 

[Boxscore]

I think this is an oversimplification of his production. It ramped up during the 2nd half of the year, which is why he was a late riser. Crap team so he didn't draw much attention for a while. Also tracks for his relative age.

I think just saying that you could have traded down to get him is not have a full view of the information that the Flyers had at the time.

Do I think it warranted not drafting Buium? No, I don't agree with the pick; but I do believe that Buium had his 'team preferences' and seeing as that's now becoming a trend for NCAA folks, it does seem like teams are taking notice of it.

As with any trend, it starts off surprising and really benefits the teams that it "works for" (i.e., MIN in this case). But I think we'll see more of this in the next few until there's an adjustment to the CBA made.

With all due respect, this is all speculative excuse-making after admitting it was a bad pick. The thing is, this truly isn't a one-off. The Flyers passed on Perreault last year for a "solid, two-way defenseman" in Bonk because he was a "safe pick" after swinging for the fences with Michkov.

Playing it safe again when there was an elite D prospect on the board is absurd for a team whose only priority should be surrounding Michkov with as many elite weapons as possible, regardless of position.

The Flyers had tunnel vision and wanted their guy. Before the draft, Briere said, "It's no secret we are prioritizing the center position" and at that point, I was convinced they were either going to mortgage the entire farm for Lindstrom, take Helenius, or trade back and go off the board with a reach pick. Well, they moved back and made a reach pick, lol.

I'm puzzled that a young GM like Briere would be so glued to "drafting for need" like Luchanko is going to make an impact in the next 3-4 years. The jury is still out on how good he will be, and if he even ends up a C in the NHL due to his below-average face-off percentage.

I think it's clear, that the Flyers passed on a massive ceiling talent with legit 1D potential for a C who might be a good 2C if it all works out for him. The Flyers are rebuilding. You cannot pass up that kind of talent without setting your rebuild back, maybe significantly.

 

[tomd]

I think the Parekh and Yakemchuk picks are very possibly because of the American factor. Calgary and Ottawa are very nervous about that right now.

And yes him being 6'0 is a huge part of it too. I think he could have gone top 5 if not for that. I think the rumors that Anaheim were considering him at #3 are likely true. The draft can go like that, a guy can go #3 or #12 depending on one team's decision. He could have been the second or third choice for a lot of clubs.

I think Buium has the skill to be a 60+ pt D, but teams are very risk averse and I think put too much weight on downside outcomes. Like if he's not a top scorer, well we don't want 6'0 D. I think the upside outcomes should be weighted more heavily and also happen to think that Buium's "B game" is outstanding. Even if he's not scoring that's a guy you want out on the ice, much like a Forsling or Spurgeon.

Grant McCagg mentioned 2-3 weeks before the draft that the Ducks were focusing on Sennecke and Yakemchuk and Verbeek didn't like the idea of drafting Russians. At the time I just thought it was another "insider" spouting nonsense but in retrospect I think his connections were 100% accurate. He was the first to connect Sennecke to Anaheim at a time when it just seemed completely unlikely. The Ducks head of scouting indicated that in the days before the draft the team was focused on two players with Sennecke winning out. I'll bet McCagg was right and the other player was Yakemchuk.

A long way of saying that Buium was never going to be selected by the Ducks. The late betting was almost entirely driven by Marek's prediction which turned out to be very wrong.

 

[thedjpd]

With all due respect, this is all speculative excuse-making after admitting it was a bad pick. The thing is, this truly isn't a one-off. The Flyers passed on Perreault last year for a "solid, two-way defenseman" in Bonk because he was a "safe pick" after swinging for the fences with Michkov.

Playing it safe again when there was an elite D prospect on the board is absurd for a team whose only priority should be surrounding Michkov with as many elite weapons as possible, regardless of position.

The Flyers had tunnel vision and wanted their guy. Before the draft, Briere said, "It's no secret we are prioritizing the center position" and at that point, I was convinced they were either going to mortgage the entire farm for Lindstrom, take Helenius, or trade back and go off the board with a reach pick. Well, they moved back and made a reach pick, lol.

I'm puzzled that a young GM like Briere would be so glued to "drafting for need" like Luchanko is going to make an impact in the next 3-4 years. The jury is still out on how good he will be, and if he even ends up a C in the NHL due to his below-average face-off percentage.

I think it's clear, that the Flyers passed on a massive ceiling talent with legit 1D potential for a C who might be a good 2C if it all works out for him. The Flyers are rebuilding. You cannot pass up that kind of talent without setting your rebuild back, maybe significantly.

Maybe? I mean, for a massive, elite #1D with so much potential, he was the last of the bunch picked.

There's two reasons for that (size isn't even one - as I mentioned, a similarly sized d-man was also drafted before (well before!) him).

1) He is not as good as we think
2) He used some leverage to indicate his preferred teams.

The 1st one, we'll find out. GMs are wrong regularly, of course. But so are we (i.e., media, fans). We're just not in the spotlight, and we have far less information than they do.

The 2nd? GMs don't manage teams long enough to deal with high risk maybes. There are other factors of players that do matter, and that are important. The good GMs balance it well. The bad ones don't.

It's nice, in a theoretical world, to normalize a players profile to just peak, top of the lineup potential or down to one stat moneyball style, but even when that happened, it only really happened once.

If Buium told the Flyers (FYI: I'm not saying he did) that he wouldn't sign with them, why in the world would you draft him?

I mean, CG said he would love to play for the Flyers, and then just didn't, right? Flyers clearly misread that one.