LD Mikhail Gulyayev - Avangard Omsk, KHL (2023, 31st, COL)

[S E P H]

This is stretching my memory but Ozolinsh wasn't super tall.

But you're right, Gulyayev is closer in size to Girard / MAB types. I think faster than they ever were though, he has rockets on his skates. Like as fast as Makar can go.

Just googled it, one site says Ozolinsh was 6’5” while another says he was 6’3”. Ozolinsh was very unique type of player, all offense at his size is very rare.

 

[Avs9296]

The Russian Cale Makar! Very excited about this pick.

What's his timeline in terms of coming over to NA? 1 year, 2 years? More?

 

[Kevin Musto]

The Russian Cale Makar! Very excited about this pick.

What's his timeline in terms of coming over to NA? 1 year, 2 years? More?

He can't come over until the 25-26 season.

 

[olgerd]

He can't come over until the 25-26 season.

If he does not terminate the contract, like his former teammate Ivan Miroshnichenko.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I saw Guly in person at development camp. I didn’t get the impression he’s small, hems more like 5’11 imo. I also liked his one on one defending, interesting to see his defending mentioned so much here but isn’t talked about much outside. I’m fine him taking the two years before coming over, nobody needs to get to the AHL early.

 

[QJL]

Steal of the draft right here. Wont even be a debate in 3-4 years.

 

[S E P H]

interesting to see his defending mentioned so much here but isn’t talked about much outside.

There are a lot of aspects that go into defending. There's defending off the rush, there is 1v1 defending, there is defending against the cycle, and defending against different types of players. Zadorov is a perfect example of a defenceman that is brilliant when it comes to defending players off the rush in a 1v1 scenario but gets severely exposed against other teams' cycle tactics. Gulyayev is good in 1v1 defence, but that doesn't mean he is a good defenceman overall. He looked pretty bad when it came to zonal defence, especially in puck-watching.

 

[lionsDen]

Not saying you’re wrong, but Ozolinsh was 6’5”, Gulyayev is 5’10”. I see him more as Zdilicky personally, with the worst case of him busting to a Marc-Andre Bergeron Type of player

Ozo was only 6’3

 

[Astyanax]

Ozo was only 6’3

Ya, just looked that up myself. I remember he wasn't tiny, but I would have guessed 6'1. Even in my senility I know 6'5 was wrong.

 

[Unger9]

Absolutely bewildered that he went as late as he did. It's almost like teams thought he had character issues or something. If it's because the team who won the cup has tall defensemen, this continues to be truly hilarious. Half of those defensemen don't even play big

Waiting until the day GMs realize drafting is about acquiring assets with trade value.. not constructing a roster

 

[Garl]

Absolutely bewildered that he went as late as he did. It's almost like teams thought he had character issues or something. If it's because the team who won the cup has tall defensemen, this continues to be truly hilarious. Half of those defensemen don't even play big

Waiting until the day GMs realize drafting is about acquiring assets with trade value.. not constructing a roster

Gulyaev is a project, went roughly where his kind of players should

 

[josra33]

Absolutely bewildered that he went as late as he did. It's almost like teams thought he had character issues or something. If it's because the team who won the cup has tall defensemen, this continues to be truly hilarious. Half of those defensemen don't even play big

Waiting until the day GMs realize drafting is about acquiring assets with trade value.. not constructing a roster

Too many height supremacists on these boards....

 

[Hollel]

Absolutely bewildered that he went as late as he did. It's almost like teams thought he had character issues or something. If it's because the team who won the cup has tall defensemen, this continues to be truly hilarious. Half of those defensemen don't even play big

Waiting until the day GMs realize drafting is about acquiring assets with trade value.. not constructing a roster

What is the logic here? Are we saying he should have been drafted earlier because he will have greater trade value than draft value??

 

[Zine]

What is the logic here? Are we saying he should have been drafted earlier because he will have greater trade value than draft value??

The point was to draft the best player available rather than draft for positional need.
The higher rated player, player A, holds more value (potential trade return) than the lesser rated player, player B, even though player B's position may be of more value to the team.

 

[josra33]

The point was to draft the best player available rather than draft for positional need.
The higher rated player, player A, holds more value (potential trade return) than the lesser rated player, player B, even though player B's position may be of more value to the team.

Higher rating value of players will change as early as development camp when the public information about a player changes. This is all rapidly changing information. Do you think Galchenyuk (albeit what little he had) has less value after learning about why his contract was terminated?

 

[Hollel]

Higher rating value of players will change as early as development camp when the public information about a player changes. This is all rapidly changing information. Do you think Galchenyuk (albeit what little he had) has less value after learning about why his contract was terminated?

I don’t think it changes like this for a prospect at development camp. I bet even after a strong D+1 year for some prospects they won’t have crazy swings in value (talking about late firsts, 2nds 3rd etc ). I bet plenty of teams that passed on Eeli Tolvanen in his draft year still stuck to their valuation of the player after he torched the KHL. The public anointed him the best prospect outside the NHL, and now some years later he looks like a …solid late 1st type of pick.

The point was to draft the best player available rather than draft for positional need.
The higher rated player, player A, holds more value (potential trade return) than the lesser rated player, player B, even though player B's position may be of more value to the team.

I mean…. I don’t think teams are looking at Gulyayev and seeing some A rated prospect they are passing on for a B rated prospect because that other player is a center or has size. Likely, he isn’t the highest rated player available to them full stop. Instead, they looked at Gulyayev and saw lots of holes in his game and all the warts that will make him struggle at the NHL level. Is that a right or wrong evaluation? I don’t know, but it’s silly to think otherwise. Really the only clear cut examples of this would be teams passing on Michkov, but I think it’s clear now he forced his way to Philly.

One final point, HockeyProspect.com, who IMO have the closest alignment publicly to NHL teams, didn’t rate Gulyayev in their final top 32.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I mean…. I don’t think teams are looking at Gulyayev and seeing some A rated prospect they are passing on for a B rated prospect because that other player is a center or has size. Likely, he isn’t the highest rated player available to them full stop. Instead, they looked at Gulyayev and saw lots of holes in his game and all the warts that will make him struggle at the NHL level. Is that a right or wrong evaluation? I don’t know, but it’s silly to think otherwise. Really the only clear cut examples of this would be teams passing on Michkov, but I think it’s clear now he forced his way to Philly.

One final point, HockeyProspect.com, who IMO have the closest alignment publicly to NHL teams, didn’t rate Gulyayev in their final top 32.

That is quite literally what happens, all the time.

Who knows if it was the situation specifically with Gulyayev. But that is an extremely common occurrence in drafting.


As for the 2nd bold... Bob Mackenzie quite clearly has the most alignment to NHL teams since his list is literally created off NHL scouts. He had Gulyayev at 23, so it would certainly seems like he was probably passed by a couple teams at least due to his size.

 

[Hollel]

That is quite literally what happens, all the time.

Who knows if it was the situation specifically with Gulyayev. But that is an extremely common occurrence in drafting.


As for the 2nd bold... Bob Mackenzie quite clearly has the most alignment to NHL teams since his list is literally created off NHL scouts. He had Gulyayev at 23, so it would certainly seems like he was probably passed by a couple teams at least due to his size.

1. Examples?

2. Right, it’s just a polling of some scouts without any added context. I’m talking about sites and public evaluators scouting the draft class. Bobs list is irrelevant in this example.

 

[theVladiator]

From my point of view, Gulyayev's profile is similar to 2 Dmen that went ahead of him (ASP and Molendyk). So at least two other teams have chosen a "smallish" Dman with superb skating skills, just a different one. That's not to say that those teams were right to do so, but I think it shows that blaming Gulyayev's "fall" in the draft on size only is wrong.

 

[vildurson]

From my point of view, Gulyayev's profile is similar to 2 Dmen that went ahead of him (ASP and Molendyk). So at least two other teams have chosen a "smallish" Dman with superb skating skills, just a different one. That's not to say that those teams were right to do so, but I think it shows that blaming Gulyayev's "fall" in the draft on size only is wrong.

Gonna be interesting to watch who carves best career out of the three smaller guys, ASP, Molendyk or Gulyayev. Personally I think Gulyayev has biggest potential but ASP is the most likely to have best career.

 

[S E P H]

I mean…. I don’t think teams are looking at Gulyayev and seeing some A rated prospect they are passing on for a B rated prospect because that other player is a center or has size

Based on this logic, there will never be any Ryan O'Reillys' or Patrice Bergerons' in drafts. Of course, that is why there are gems found in every round because teams undervalue prospects all the time.

 

[Hollel]

Based on this logic, there will never be any Ryan O'Reillys' or Patrice Bergerons' in drafts. Of course, that is why there are gems found in every round because teams undervalue prospects all the time.

Huh? I am not saying players go under valued. I’m saying teams aren’t rating them highly before passing on them for much lesser rated prospects. As in a team like the Flyers rating Gulyayev as an A rated prospect but drafting a Bonk who they rated as a C grade prospect just because of size. They just simply rated Bonk higher, for better or worse

 

[Kshahdoo]

Will play for Team Russia U23 at Sochi KHL preseason. The tournament starts on August, 3rd.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Friendly game Avangard vs its VHL team. Gulyayev plays for the main team and scores a point already. He's #84.

 

[Alex K]