Prospect Info: LD Filip Nordberg (2022, 64th Overall)

[Tap on the Ankle]

Just casually perusing the Muskegon roster it looks like Adrian Aucoin, Ken Klee, and Brad Berry (UND coach) all have sons playing on that team.

 

[josra33]

Anyone know where Nordberg is playing this upcoming season? AHL, Europe?

 

[Ouroboros]

Anyone know where Nordberg is playing this upcoming season? AHL, Europe?

At this point I would guess that the most likely destination is an overage year in the USHL, although that doesn't make a lot of sense for a guy who isn't eligible to play NCAA hockey.

He doesn't have a contract in Europe and many of those leagues have already begun their training camps so that doesn't seem to be a likely path. He doesn't have an ELC or AHL contract so he won't be in Belleville. There aren't many options for him, really.

This guy has played and developed very little since being drafted. Has the feeling of yet another high draft pick that won't even get an entry-level from the Sens.

 

[Senator Stanley]

At this point I would guess that the most likely destination is an overage year in the USHL, although that doesn't make a lot of sense for a guy who isn't eligible to play NCAA hockey.

He doesn't have a contract in Europe and many of those leagues have already begun their training camps so that doesn't seem to be a likely path. He doesn't have an ELC or AHL contract so he won't be in Belleville. There aren't many options for him, really.

This guy has played and developed very little since being drafted. Has the feeling of yet another high draft pick that won't even get an entry-level from the Sens.

It'll be interesting to see how long our scouts' fascination with the "great tools, not a good hockey player" prospect profile continues.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

It'll be interesting to see how long our scouts' fascination with the "great tools, not a good hockey player" prospect profile continues.

It's been going on for 10 years now.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

It's been going on for 10 years now.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It'll be interesting to see how long our scouts' fascination with the "great tools, not a good hockey player" prospect profile continues.

This current group isn't going to change their ways.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

This current group isn't going to change their ways.

Which is why Staois needs to inject new blood, we've wasted a ridiculous amount of picks on low ceiling players.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Which is why Staois needs to inject new blood, we've wasted a ridiculous amount of picks on low ceiling players.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Which is why Staois needs to inject new blood, we've wasted a ridiculous amount of picks on low ceiling players.

I don't think guys like Nordberg are necessarily low ceiling. Nordberg has an intriguing profile - he's huge and physically imposing, he's mobile, he shows flashes of offensive skill. There's a theoretically high ceiling player there. The problem is it's entirely theoretical. There's no floor.

I wouldn't mind taking a guy like Nordberg later in the draft. Same with Ben Roger, who was another theoretical player who couldn't actually play. But when they take swings like that in the second round, it suggests that they're drafting from an extremely narrowed list of players.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I don't think guys like Nordberg are necessarily low ceiling. Nordberg has an intriguing profile - he's huge and physically imposing, he's mobile, he shows flashes of offensive skill. There's a theoretically high ceiling player there. The problem is it's entirely theoretical. There's no floor.

I wouldn't mind taking a guy like Nordberg later in the draft. Same with Ben Roger, who was another theoretical player who couldn't actually play. But when they take swings like that in the second round, it suggests that they're drafting from an extremely narrowed list of players.

Ben roger like reaaaalllyyy couldn’t play tho

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I don't think guys like Nordberg are necessarily low ceiling. Nordberg has an intriguing profile - he's huge and physically imposing, he's mobile, he shows flashes of offensive skill. There's a theoretically high ceiling player there. The problem is it's entirely theoretical. There's no floor.

I wouldn't mind taking a guy like Nordberg later in the draft. Same with Ben Roger, who was another theoretical player who couldn't actually play. But when they take swings like that in the second round, it suggests that they're drafting from an extremely narrowed list of players.

They've drafted about 47 low-ceiling defensive defensemen in the past 3 years, enough is enough.

 

[RickyLafleur]

what the hell is wrong with our scouts?

 

[Wallet Inspector]

what the hell is wrong with our scouts?

1. They're meatheads that don't value hockey IQ as much as they should.
2. They keep de-valuing our picks by drafting guys 30 spots above where they're ranked.

 

[Ouroboros]

what the hell is wrong with our scouts?

A large number of them are very inexperienced. Most of these guys were hired during the peak of the Melnyk cost-cutting era, when he begrudgingly made a little money available for scouting during the rebuild.

Todd Stirling, Andrew Gordon, Christian De Blois, Dan Boeser, Kyle Flanagan and Bobby Strumm are all guys who had never worked in the NHL in a scouting capacity before they were hired by Ottawa. Anders Ostberg had a short stint as a European scout for the Blues before coming here, and the rest [Ruutu, Janecyk, Fargher and Boyd] are holdovers from a bygone era.

This isn't like when Bill Armstrong took over the Coyotes and went out and hired some of the best in the business [Darryl Plandowski and Ryan Jankowski in particular] to build a foundation. Plandowski was one of the key guys running Tampa's drafts from 2009 to 2020 and Jankowski was director of player personnel for Hockey Canada's U20 and U18 programs, with plenty of high-level NHL scouting experience as well.

So I think it's entirely possible that a lot of the guys scouting for the Senators these days are just not good at it.

 

[DrEasy]

A large number of them are very inexperienced. Most of these guys were hired during the peak of the Melnyk cost-cutting era, when he begrudgingly made a little money available for scouting during the rebuild.

Todd Stirling, Andrew Gordon, Christian De Blois, Dan Boeser, Kyle Flanagan and Bobby Strumm are all guys who had never worked in the NHL in a scouting capacity before they were hired by Ottawa. Anders Ostberg had a short stint as a European scout for the Blues before coming here, and the rest [Ruutu, Janecyk, Fargher and Boyd] are holdovers from a bygone era.

This isn't like when Bill Armstrong took over the Coyotes and went out and hired some of the best in the business [Darryl Plandowski and Ryan Jankowski in particular] to build a foundation. Plandowski was one of the key guys running Tampa's drafts from 2009 to 2020 and Jankowski was director of player personnel for Hockey Canada's U20 and U18 programs, with plenty of high-level NHL scouting experience as well.

So I think it's entirely possible that a lot of the guys scouting for the Senators these days are just not good at it.

Genuine question: how long did it take Bill Armstrong to turn his scouting team over, and how is Staios doing in that respect compared to him? I'm just getting really impatient and it feels like if Staios is different from his predecessor in terms of hockey philosophy we should have seen a lot more changes by now.

 

[RickyLafleur]

A large number of them are very inexperienced. Most of these guys were hired during the peak of the Melnyk cost-cutting era, when he begrudgingly made a little money available for scouting during the rebuild.

Todd Stirling, Andrew Gordon, Christian De Blois, Dan Boeser, Kyle Flanagan and Bobby Strumm are all guys who had never worked in the NHL in a scouting capacity before they were hired by Ottawa. Anders Ostberg had a short stint as a European scout for the Blues before coming here, and the rest [Ruutu, Janecyk, Fargher and Boyd] are holdovers from a bygone era.

This isn't like when Bill Armstrong took over the Coyotes and went out and hired some of the best in the business [Darryl Plandowski and Ryan Jankowski in particular] to build a foundation. Plandowski was one of the key guys running Tampa's drafts from 2009 to 2020 and Jankowski was director of player personnel for Hockey Canada's U20 and U18 programs, with plenty of high-level NHL scouting experience as well.

So I think it's entirely possible that a lot of the guys scouting for the Senators these days are just not good at it.

Thank you. Now I know it's likely just pure incompetence thanks to Melnyk from beyond the grave. Hopefully, some of these guys get replaced soon because the results speak for themselves.

1. They're meatheads that don't value hockey IQ as much as they should.
2. They keep de-valuing our picks by drafting guys 30 spots above where they're ranked.

So true....a lot of the time they pick guys who aren't even ranked either.

 

[BondraTime]

The holdovers from the bygone era who are in charge and given preference are the issue, we have the same types of picks and prospect preferences from the past 15 years being made today

You can essentailly make a 4/5 prospect list of guys you should expect to be picked in the mid rounds because we have the same preferences we have since 2010, likewise with the types of picks and where they are likely to come from. Ourobous did just that this draft and was bang on with 3 or 4 of our 2nd day picks.

You essentially can be all but guarenteed that Janecyk is getting to choose a player of two, or having gigantic input, almost always an overaged guy, from the USHL/USHS/etc.

They have the same checklist, give or take. Big, toolsy, generally skipped over in a draft or two, not very good at the moment but the thought they can develop into something with their tools.

Moore, Montgomery, Van Tassel, Burgess, Novak, Boyle, Gendron, Halliday, Loheit, Eiserman, Leblanc, Shore, Aneloski, McCormick, etc.

The Sens have employed the same draft philiosphy for the past ~15 years, it was led by Dorion, the same people who were in charge of areas back then are still in charge now. Fragher has been here since 97', Janecyk has been here since 99', Boyd since 13'.

Sens need to make an outside hire, bring in someone who hasn't been molded by the Sens to create a new draft process, or add some new elements.

The Sens drafting isn't terrible, but it lacks diversity. You know what they're looking for before the draft even happens

 

[Ouroboros]

Genuine question: how long did it take Bill Armstrong to turn his scouting team over, and how is Staios doing in that respect compared to him? I'm just getting really impatient and it feels like if Staios is different from his predecessor in terms of hockey philosophy we should have seen a lot more changes by now.

Armstrong was named GM on September 17th 2020 and had hired Plandowski and Jankowski by October 2nd, so it was fast. Overhauling the amateur scouting was his first priority as GM. He also hired Cory Banika and Matt Tiesling - who has since left for a promotion with Vegas - a few days after Jankowski.

I was expecting Staios to make changes on the amateur side this summer, but I guess it's not going to happen.

When Bill Armstrong walked out of his introductory press conference 20 months ago, his mind was swimming in thoughts. He knew that he was under the gun after an acrimonious split between ownership and the previous GM, he knew that he needed to evaluate every level of the hockey operations department, and he knew that rampant change was coming.

“When I walked across the parking lot after doing the interview, I thought to myself, ‘What makes me different than all the other GMs that have been here?’”Armstrong said. “By the time I got to the other side of the parking lot, I said, ‘Well, I’m going to be the first one that has the best scouting staff.’”

Craig Morgan wrote an interesting series of articles about the process if you're interested. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Armstrong was named GM on September 17th 2020 and had hired Plandowski and Jankowski by October 2nd, so it was fast. Overhauling the amateur scouting was his first priority as GM. He also hired Cory Banika and Matt Tiesling - who has since left for a promotion with Vegas - a few days after Jankowski.

I was expecting Staios to make changes on the amateur side this summer, but I guess it's not going to happen.



Craig Morgan wrote an interesting series of articles about the process if you're interested. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.

For me it's the single most concerning thing about Staois' tenure so far. The organization talks about being best in class. Even the most charitable observer wouldn't call this scouting staff best in class.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Armstrong was named GM on September 17th 2020 and had hired Plandowski and Jankowski by October 2nd, so it was fast. Overhauling the amateur scouting was his first priority as GM. He also hired Cory Banika and Matt Tiesling - who has since left for a promotion with Vegas - a few days after Jankowski.

I was expecting Staios to make changes on the amateur side this summer, but I guess it's not going to happen.



Craig Morgan wrote an interesting series of articles about the process if you're interested. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.

He should have made some changes and additions this summer. Its hard to believe they couldn't get some outside help in evaluating the amateur scouting side of the house.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Gonna be a sick player

 

[Ouroboros]

For me it's the single most concerning thing about Staois' tenure so far. The organization talks about being best in class. Even the most charitable observer wouldn't call this scouting staff best in class.

He should have made some changes and additions this summer. Its hard to believe they couldn't get some outside help in evaluating the amateur scouting side of the house.

It could still happen. The last time the Senators made changes to their scouting staff it was announced in early September, so I guess we'll see. A lot of the guys Armstrong hired in Arizona only became available because Terry Pegula freaked out and fired Buffalo's entire amateur scouting staff in the summer of 2020. A lot of this stuff never reaches the public sphere, so we have no idea who might be available, or even what the status of Ottawa's current amateur staff is - if these guys are locked into long deals they may not want to fire them and have to pay out a large chunk of cash.

One thing I don't agree with is that the Sens have been drafting in this manner for 10 or 15 years. I think the change is more recent than that, and I've sort of narrowed it down to 2 factors:

1. Brain drain.
   • Somewhere around 2014 or so the Sens started losing a ton of scouts. Tim Murray left to be GM in Buffalo and he took Greg Royce with him, Bob Lowes left to be Director of Player Personnel in Vegas, Vaclav Burda left to be Chief European Scout in Edmonton, Lew Mongelluzzo left to work for New Jersey, Bill McCarthy retired. All of that happened within a period of 2-3 years, and almost none of those guys were replaced with established scouting talent.
2. Change in philosophy coming from Pierre Dorion
   • At the outset of the rebuild, Dorion gave an interview where he laid out what the strategy was going to be, and a big part of it was that they weren't going to be drafting for skill in the later rounds.
   • "And at the same, we’ve talked to our amateur staff, and we’re not always going to draft the highest skill guy. We’re going to draft a player that helps us win the most, and that comes with character. Those are intangibles that we’re always going to try and do. Easier to say now, but sometimes when you get in the fifth, sixth, seventh rounds sometimes you try to hit a home run with a skill guy. We’re going to do less and less of that now. Just because at the end of the day most of them don’t ever pan out.”

So I think from about 2018 onwards, you can start to see a clear change in their approach to the draft. They aren't taking 'skill' players and they rarely take anybody under 6' tall. The lifeblood of the Senators used to be that they could crank out NHL players in the later rounds of the draft - J.G. Pageau, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Derek Grant, Mark Borowiecki, Ryan Dzingel and others. Since Drake Batherson in 2017 that well seems to have run completely dry and the team is really feeling it. Combine that with how many high picks they've whiffed on [Thomson, Bernard-Docker, Tychonick, Jarventie, Sokolov, Boucher, Roger, Nordberg] and you find yourself in the situation the Sens are in now.

 

[Xspyrit]

1. They're meatheads that don't value hockey IQ as much as they should.
2. They keep de-valuing our picks by drafting guys 30 spots above where they're ranked.

Then we just decide to let a guy like Brannstrom walk because "he's too small"

Give me guys who can play hockey at the NHL pace, no matter what their size is

Genuine question: how long did it take Bill Armstrong to turn his scouting team over, and how is Staios doing in that respect compared to him? I'm just getting really impatient and it feels like if Staios is different from his predecessor in terms of hockey philosophy we should have seen a lot more changes by now.

IIRC, Bryan Murray revamped the whole scouting department as soon as he took over from Muckler. As a result, look at our drafts from 2008 to 2011

What is surprising is that Trent Mann started in 2011-12 with the team and our draft results have never been as good after (except 2020 and few guys there and there)

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It could still happen. The last time the Senators made changes to their scouting staff it was announced in early September, so I guess we'll see. A lot of the guys Armstrong hired in Arizona only became available because Terry Pegula freaked out and fired Buffalo's entire amateur scouting staff in the summer of 2020. A lot of this stuff never reaches the public sphere, so we have no idea who might be available, or even what the status of Ottawa's current amateur staff is - if these guys are locked into long deals they may not want to fire them and have to pay out a large chunk of cash.

One thing I don't agree with is that the Sens have been drafting in this manner for 10 or 15 years. I think the change is more recent than that, and I've sort of narrowed it down to 2 factors:

1. Brain drain.
   • Somewhere around 2014 or so the Sens started losing a ton of scouts. Tim Murray left to be GM in Buffalo and he took Greg Royce with him, Bob Lowes left to be Director of Player Personnel in Vegas, Vaclav Burda left to be Chief European Scout in Edmonton, Lew Mongelluzzo left to work for New Jersey, Bill McCarthy retired. All of that happened within a period of 2-3 years, and almost none of those guys were replaced with established scouting talent.
2. Change in philosophy coming from Pierre Dorion
   • At the outset of the rebuild, Dorion gave an interview where he laid out what the strategy was going to be, and a big part of it was that they weren't going to be drafting for skill in the later rounds.
   • "And at the same, we’ve talked to our amateur staff, and we’re not always going to draft the highest skill guy. We’re going to draft a player that helps us win the most, and that comes with character. Those are intangibles that we’re always going to try and do. Easier to say now, but sometimes when you get in the fifth, sixth, seventh rounds sometimes you try to hit a home run with a skill guy. We’re going to do less and less of that now. Just because at the end of the day most of them don’t ever pan out.”

So I think from about 2018 onwards, you can start to see a clear change in their approach to the draft. They aren't taking 'skill' players and they rarely take anybody under 6' tall. The lifeblood of the Senators used to be that they could crank out NHL players in the later rounds of the draft - J.G. Pageau, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Derek Grant, Mark Borowiecki, Ryan Dzingel and others. Since Drake Batherson in 2017 that well seems to have run completely dry and the team is really feeling it. Combine that with how many high picks they've whiffed on [Thomson, Bernard-Docker, Tychonick, Jarventie, Sokolov, Boucher, Roger, Nordberg] and you find yourself in the situation the Sens are in now.

It could still happen . I would have liked something in that direction this summer when U18s and draft eligible prospects are playing international tournaments. Not too late but better earlier. Good job with the review. Sens can improve in the amateur scouting even if it was to increase its presence in Europe. I think they need new blood at the top to help with the direction, guidelines and procedure. Leach, he guy the leafs snagged out of Dallas mentioned he is doing that at the Hlinka. I know not everyone liked Mann's work (almost no one liked 2021 and they clearly were not prepared), but I think he brought a fair bit more than Don Boyd can. I would love to pry Mark Hunter out of London.