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WC: Latvia Roster Talk 2022

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SoundAndFury said:
1) I wasn't talking about your D, I was talking about your D in this WC.
2) Nice of you to add Romania who played in D1A once (in D2A twice though) and never [in the near future] will again as an average team there...
3) You can pinpoint any guy to make any argument. Compare Latvian Ds to Crinon - they are great, to Bailen - terrible. It's not how it works. Would these D, as a group, give Latvia an edge over D1A elevator teams? Not really. They are better than some, worse than others.

And on the back of Slovakia winning Olympic bronze, Lithuania being 3rd in D1A, Romania playing there at all or any number of other examples, you should realize pinpointing we are 11th/12th actually means nothing. GB is playing in their 3rd WC straight for god's sake. Those differences are marginal, it's about belonging to a certain tier. And at the moment you guys belong to a tier where your best D is a C-grade EU pro. And missing him is actually a big deal because he is still significantly ahead of most. Which tells a lot about the group I was actually talking about.
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I'm not sure why you're so toxic and sour. What you're saying is factually incorrect. Our D is clearly superior to all Div IA sides. So your point is invalid. Let it go.

Our best defenseman is Jaks. These clearly are no C-grade EU pros.


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No, Jordan Southorn and Ivan Mishchenko Jaks is sandwiched between are elite players man. I think they have both won VHL Defenseman of the Week at some point, best of the best.

I'm seriously starting to think only hockey you watch is on EP (which only makes sense since you did say you don't watch the KHL). That's probably why I'm so toxic and sour, kinda annoying to talk to the person who seems ever more clueless. From the deep analysis of Slovenia 2022 to PPG tables where half of the players are garbage to prove that the one in the middle of it isn't.

Maybe you would also like to discuss how Renat Mamashev was better than Sergei Gonchar in 2013? Because obviously.
 
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I think the divisions aren't good classifications because they change from year to year and teams that are on the elevator are difficult to count one way or another. Like when Belarus was in D1A, maybe there's an argument. I think of it more as just peer to peer.

Obviously you have the big six, Canada, US, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czechs. Next is maybe Switzerland, Slovakia and Germany in that order. Next I would put Denmark. Then it's probably Latvia. Maybe Belarus if they still had Bailen.

I think Latvia is at best 11th defensively, but really at best 10th offensively as well. I don't think their forwards are better than Switzerland, Slovakia, Germany. I'd personally peg them 11th offensively as well, I think Denmark's best forward corps is also better.

But if Belarus is losing imports then I do think there's a considerable gap opening between Latvia, firmly in 11th, and all the countries after that, which are either regressing or treading water.
 
Ok, let's go full-on science mode. When I said it it was kind of "it feels like it" moment but let's find out how inaccurate it was.

So exhibit A is current Latvian D:

Jaks - Zile
Mamcics - Kulda
Cukste - Sotnieks
Smons/Bergmanis

I was comparing it to the best possible groups other countries could bring. So big 6, Slovakia, Switzerland, Germany is ahead without any discussions. Kazakhstan, Belarus (Bailen still was on that team, in my mind at the time, at least), Denmark also ahead by a fair margin. So that's 12 already.

Norway with Bonsaksen, Holos, Espeland, Lesund, Kasastul, Lilleberg, Holm plus all Allsvenskan guys are kinda close but I'd say still better.

Then there is France and Austria that are worse but definitely not completely outmatched.

So here we go, to me, it seemed like with defense like that Latvia is 14th, within touching distance of 16th. And 15-18 are elevator places so... I really don't feel like my point is invalid. Maybe it could be rephrased but at the time I wasn't really accounting for hurt feelings.
 
@SoundAndFury Clearly, I can see how someone rooting for a Div IA side would try to argue that the Latvian defense is at the same level, but maybe bring that discussion to the Div IA thread.

One of the more absurd points I've seen from you.

Oh, and talking about absurd points, as for NHLe, Jelisejevs production rate in Allsvenskan was perfectly predicted by his KHL NHLe. He's basically a C-grade EU pro, much like Jevpalovs. Except Jevpalovs wasn't playing in a sheltered KHL role with loads of PP time and didn't catch a lucky streak there. Playing on a different team or a different league doesn't make a player worse or better. Jevpalovs should be scoring at a PPG+ rate in France. while Jelisejevs should be a 0.5 PPG guy in Allsvenskan. Eventually Jelisejevs shares will fall and he definitely won't be playing in the top 6 of the Latvian NT in two years time.

@kabidjan18 Sure, maybe. Denmark is trending downwards, I think we are about to pass them. Slovakia has been trending downwards for a while and their roster is pretty mediocre too. But 10th/11th sounds about right.
 
Namejs said:
@SoundAndFury Clearly, I can see how someone rooting for a Div IA side would try to argue that the Latvian defense is at the same level, but maybe bring that discussion to the Div IA thread.
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How about you actually point out where the evaluation in the post above yours is wrong. Instead of going for this "you are old, you root for D1A side" bullshit. Everyone understands we got gifted the D1A spot and we won bronze because the entire hockey division system is a clusterf*** at the moment. We actually did talk about it in D1A thread. It has nothing to do with this discussion though.

Other than that, thanks for the insight. I heard Karsums is going to bounce back as well. And Jevpalovs going from scoring 0.4 PPG in the AHL to 0.4 PPG in ICEHL is not him trending downwards, just a part of your master plan you have seen coming all along. I get it. And when I said he isn't as good as the stats say because he was just riding his linemates in 20/21 I was wrong and now I continue to be wrong because I was actually right. Very interesting.
 
SoundAndFury said:
How about you actually point out where the evaluation in the post above yours is wrong. Instead of going for this "you are old, you root for D1A side" bullshit. Everyone understands we got gifted the D1A spot and we won bronze because the entire hockey division system is a clusterf*** at the moment. We actually did talk about it in D1A thread. It has nothing to do with this discussion though.

Other than that, thanks for the insight. I heard Karsums is going to bounce back as well. And Jevpalovs going from scoring 0.4 PPG in the AHL to 0.4 PPG in ICEHL is not him trending downwards, just a part of your master plan you have seen coming all along. I get it. And when I said he isn't as good as the stats say because he was just riding his linemates in 20/21 I was wrong and now I continue to be wrong because I was actually right. Very interesting.
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Jevpalovs is a career 0.33 PPG guy in AHL and a 0.60 PPG guy in ICEHL.

Jelisejevs is a 0.31 PPG guy in KHL and a 0.50 PPG guy in Allsvenskan. Similar calibre.

The only reason Jelisejevs is playing on the 4th line right now instead of Jevpalovs is that Jevpalovs had a major beef with the coaching staff and was shitlisted years ago.

As for Tralmaks, he has been incredible in the AHL, he's one of the leading forwards defensively in the entire league (5on5 goal differential 26-5), which is a continuing trend from his NCAA days. Likely going to sign an NHL ELC during next year.
 
Namejs said:
Jevpalovs is a career 0.33 PPG guy in AHL and a 0.60 PPG guy in ICEHL.

Jelisejevs is a 0.31 PPG guy in KHL and a 0.50 PPG guy in Allsvenskan. Similar calibre.

The only reason Jelisejevs is playing on the 4th line right now instead of Jevpalovs is that Jevpalovs had a major beef with the coaching staff and was shitlisted years ago.

As for Tralmaks, he has been incredible in the AHL, he's one of the leading forwards defensively in the entire league (5on5 goal differential 26-5), which is a continuing trend from his NCAA days. Likely going to sign an NHL ELC during next year.
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How about we chill with this whole situation for the time being and go back to defense, my most absurd point. I laid out how I feel about it with ranking and everything. Where did I go wrong?

Also, when is Karsums coming back exactly? I love how sure you are in your projections based on vaguest, most generic stats ever. If Jevpalovs scores 30 points in France next year will you just never talk about him again like in Karsums case or what's the backup plan here?
 
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SoundAndFury said:
How about we chill with this whole situation for the time being and go back to defense, my most absurd point. I laid out how I feel about it with ranking and everything. Where did I go wrong?

Also, when is Karsums coming back exactly? I love how sure you are in your projections based on vaguest, most generic stats ever. If Jevpalovs scores 30 points in France next year will you just never talk about him again like in Karsums case or what's the backup plan here?
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I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Karsums, is that in your mind somehow a hole in my reasoning? Statistical analysis is based on past data and aging players are harder to gauge, just like U20-22 ones. There's nothing wrong with the method itself. When I calculated Karsums NHLe, I adjusted it for his age (decreased the NHLe).

Honestly, no idea what your point is regarding Karsums. He has retired. Why would I talk about him? You are being a little weird.
 
Namejs said:
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Karsums, is that in your mind somehow a hole in my reasoning? Statistical analysis is based on past data and aging players are harder to gauge, just like U20-22 ones. There's nothing wrong with the method itself. When I calculated Karsums NHLe, I adjusted it for his age (decreased the NHLe).

Honestly, no idea what your point is regarding Karsums. He has retired. Why would I talk about him? You are being a little weird.
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So no going back to defense? That's another thing which you realized wasn't that absurd and won't talk about again? Excuse how you were still right not coming along that easy?

Well last year you said he will inevitably bounce back, now it's hard to gauge, smh. Somehow wasn't hard for anyone with functioning eyeballs but alas. I keep going back because you trying to be right in the situation where you were wrong, and in quite spectacular fasion too, is amusing.
 
Antiillafire said:
Are you ever not seething?
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I'm not sure what do you mean by that, but that's one of the most basic things in hockey statistics. No one ever scores at a 30% rate over the long term. Cherry-picking statistical outliers about a player obviously leads to a skewed picture about him.

Pointing that out is just looking at things in a fact-based manner. I understand that you're not big on analytics, that's cool too. Just stay in your lane then.
 
That you call generalizing everything until it basically means nothing "analytics" is also hilarious.
 
Dofs said:
I believe he is stuck in time when Latvia had 1-2 lines of good players who are supposed to win the game while the rest were just there trying not to let in a goal. And hence putting him into the third line is humiliating or something.

Bot nowadays the roster is much deeper than it ever was, we have wingers on the 4th line who could have been our first liners 10 years ago. The lines are more interchangeable and more depend on how players play and gel with each other at the moment, no one has a guaranteed role, unless you are from NHL. And Daugavinsh wants a top role just because, despite not showing that good of a performance in the last few tournaments.

So I disagree that he has a point. He was put on the third line a few times and now sulks about it. But he would have absolutely improved the roster.
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From his standpoint any young guy can grind just as good he can... And he is somewhat correct about that and maybe it's for the better. Either way he is probably the only active player who can effectively hold the puck in offensive zone.(Besides Girgensons maybe) Definitely would be good addition to this team.
 
Namejs said:
@kabidjan18 Sure, maybe. Denmark is trending downwards, I think we are about to pass them. Slovakia has been trending downwards for a while and their roster is pretty mediocre too. But 10th/11th sounds about right.
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See, I would agree that Slovakia is regressing. But even as they're regressing, they've still been able to produce two stellar Defensive Defensemen in Erik Cernak and Martin Fehervary. The likes of whom, Austria has never been able to produce a single comparable defenseman. Even if I also think Slafkovsky and Nemec are overrated, I don't think they'll be the 3rd and 4th best players in the draft or whatever, at a very minimum they'll still become strong KHL level players. So even though Slovakia should be in the decline, their passive talent growth is still outpacing the field.

Even though Denmark has legitimately had very weak classes recently as well, it takes a while for the old guard to retire out. Maybe Latvia is going to pass them soon, but they played very recently and the result was decided so it will take still more time.
 
kabidjan18 said:
See, I would agree that Slovakia is regressing.
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Regressing where exactly? There is like nowhere to regress. I think we have reached our bare minimum. In 2016 we were minutes away from relegation and even today barely have any real NHLers left. Can it get worse? I'd say otherwise since there should be a total about 10 players drafted next 2 years, which include 3-4 first round picks. Plus the improvement of our junior national teams has been pretty apparent compared to 5-10 years ago.
 
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kudla said:
If you guys could ever admit being wrong about something, the world would be a better place :D
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I was so happy to see the Latvian thread being active for once. Then I understood these are just two stuborn guys throwing random statistics and arguments at each other for 3 pages.
 
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kudla said:
Regressing where exactly? There is like nowhere to regress. I think we have reached our bare minimum. In 2016 we were minutes away from relegation and even today barely have any real NHLers left. Can it get worse? I'd say otherwise since there should be a total about 10 players drafted next 2 years, which include 3-4 first round picks. Plus the improvement of our junior national teams has been pretty apparent compared to 5-10 years ago.
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If Slovakia has a group of euro players, it is still able to lose points with an opponent who is at the same level of quality as they are, sometimes even to lose with an even worse opponent. But the draft is brought to Slovakia by a draft, the teams that are around Slovakia will jump there in a few years. And if there are teams like Arizona or Detroit that will not play in the playoffs, they can also play for Slovakia in May. I wouldn't say that Slovakia has a better team than Germany, for example, if neither team has an NHL / AHL player. But a significant change in Slovakia is, as players think in different situations, this can be seen in the work of Ramsay. Before Ramsay, for example, today's match would have ended 3-3 with the French goal at the end, but today they added a fourth goal and they have three points. It is Ramsay who adds a few extra percent to Slovakia in a balanced match, lucky to have him.
 
To get things on topic, I'm just gonna say I hate Roberts Bukarts' hockey (he's a super nice guy IRL). I sort of want to coin the term "fake skill/finesse guy". Like he sure isn't hard worker or grinder of any sorts, but where's the actual tangible result of all of the favorable ice time/opportunities he gets? Always finds an opening to get a good scoring chance, but just never is able to finish and it is so frustrating to watch year after year. Also either he is puck hog or his decision making is too slow.

/rant over
 
ozo said:
To get things on topic, I'm just gonna say I hate Roberts Bukarts' hockey (he's a super nice guy IRL). I sort of want to coin the term "fake skill/finesse guy". Like he sure isn't hard worker or grinder of any sorts, but where's the actual tangible result of all of the favorable ice time/opportunities he gets? Always finds an opening to get a good scoring chance, but just never is able to finish and it is so frustrating to watch year after year. Also either he is puck hog or his decision making is too slow.

/rant over
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I agree. Being on the wrong side of 30 doesn't help either. If we could fuse Roberts and Rihards into a single player only taking their strong suits along, now that would be a decent player. But the way things are going, I would actually prefer seeing Zabusovs, Egle and some of our young ones taking his spot next year.

I think he can be a decent go-to guy on your average Extraliga team - the designated finisher and your PP1 guy or whatever, but he just doesn't quite cut it at this level. And that skill set just doesn't quite translate to 3rd line duty either.

He's still going to be of use against some of the weaker sides, but I would prefer icing a shutdown guy over him vs. Finland.
 
I think everyone is in general agreement about Bukarts for many years now... He is good against weak competition, then he hits the brick wall. As evident by his repeated tries to sign in the KHL. So let's just hope he does something against Austria and GB.
 
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