I believe the best Latvian team is favorites against our best possible team, and will continue to believe so until proven otherwise.
I don't think anyone doubts that but the [slight] issue is that in the minds of many (most?) Latvian fans it isn't even close when in reality, it is.
It appears right now that in 4 years Latvian NT will be roughly:
Elvis - Punnenovs/Silovs/Mitens/Grigals/Kalnins (?)
Balinskis - Jaks
Rubins - Cukste
Zile - A. Bergmanis (?)
Mamcics/Smons/Sejejs/Osenieks/Ozols/Bindulis/R. Bergmanis/Brants/Hodass/Fenenko
Ri. Bukarts - Abols - Balcers
Tralmaks - Blugers - Dzierkals
H. Egle (?) - Girgensons - Jelisejevs
Ansons - Batna - Krastenbergs
Marenis/Smirnovs/Svenenbergs/Vilmanis/Zabusovs/Berzins/Buncis/Gabars/Silkalns/Locmelis/T. Andersons/Veinbergs (?)/Ravinskis (?)/Lavins (??)/Jevpalovs (?)/Vitolins (??)/Dukurs (?)/Veckaktins (?)
So, to summarize:
1) The goalie situation is great if not flat out amazing, hopefully, Elvis bounces back from what was really a pretty poor season and therefore Latvia has roughly 7-8th best goaltending on the World stage, ahead of Switzerland or Slovakia as long as those don't have a real NHL goalie. Also, RIP Matiss Kivlenieks, can't help but remember him, so unfortunate.
2) Defense is... adequate, I guess. The biggest issue was much talked about, a big drop-off below the top pair.
Rubins, Cukste and Zile are all 24 and hopefully can still improve somewhat. They are all in a sort of sink or swim moment in their careers and I hope at least one of them can meet the challenge head-on and take a big step forward. At the same time, this is slightly wishful thinking as they are not the most talented bunch. But maybe, one can hope.
Another definite bright spot is the depth. No problems here whatsoever, it projects like in 2-3 years there will be a solid base of ~10 interchangeable Ds below the top ones so injuries, declines, all that kind of thing won't impact the team in a big way. As far as the "D1A defense" situation goes, this was probably the worst year, also Rubins and Balinskis not being there (initially) added to the perfect storm, obviously.
The big issue, however, remains the need for a legitimate 2-way top-4 Ds capable of playing at this level or better yet, a true #1 D capable of impacting the game in a big way. If R. Bergmanis or Fenenko are capable of reaching that level it would help the NT tremendously.
3) Forward group is probably the most interesting in this mental exercise since it is both the most revealing and the most open-ended.
For a long time, wingers were Latvia's strength and centers the issue. Looking at this projection, centers are more than fine as long as all of them are healthy and you play Girgensons there.
On the wing, however, Nizivijs, Karsums, Daugavins, Darzins, Indrasis, Redlihs have unquestionably been legitimate top-6 KHL forwards at different points of their careers, some more consistently than others. Out of the current bunch, only Balcers is really at that level (moderately higher one at that) but nobody else. Bukarts and Dzierkals, I think it's safe to say at this point, aren't going to get there,
Tralmaks is in a bit of a grey area but from what we know he's a 0.5 PPG AHL forward who signed an AHL-only deal because Bruins wouldn't have qualified him. So on one hand, he's still a big forward with decent scoring touch. On the other, the Bruins don't exactly see a direct path to the NHL for him and he would have moved to Europe already had he not been willing to take the AHL deal.
Egle is really only in the lineup because his development is still trending upwards, maybe he can reach Dzierkals/Bukarts/Tralmaks level although it can still go either way at this point. Ansons is also a complete mystery at this point, he can end up literally anywhere in the lineup or out of it. He isn't an A-level offensive talent so not like he's going to be amazing but if he was to turn into a scoring AHL forward over those 4 years that would be more than good enough.
The most intriguing part is, of course, the prospects. The volume of guys who might eventually play for the NT is outstanding. Having said that, the best ones are very young and the older ones are very questionable. Regardless, with these guys about to enter the ranks I don't see the NT level dropping more than it has now.
I do, however, think that the Latvian team will be very dependent on its top forwards actually being there in the next 3-4 years. A situation where Blugers makes the playoffs, Balcers/Abols can't come for whatever reason, it could end up being disastrous if Russia and Belarus come back.
