Speculation: Larkin trade return

[Waldorf]

Given the news out of Dallas, if Larkin is open to going there I can see a decent deal out of it involving Robertson coming back. Maybe Yzerman can swing something like Larkin/DeBrincat going there for Robertson/Bourque coming the other way...

What news is there? I took a look and haven’t seen anything.

 

[Oddbob]

I suppose, but looking at who has the space for that kind of cap, the only other suitable teams I can see him landing in if they're interesting are San Jose and Anaheim. I get a lot of people like to dump on Detroit due to the Larkin situation, but this team is becoming quite underrated tbh. If Robertson sees it as an opportunity to play for an original 6 team with a lot of history and being part of a young core, he may not see it as bad as people do.

There are a boatload of teams with tons of cap. He would have his pick of the litter and I can't see Detroit being that. There are currently 17 teams at 19.8 mil in space or higher. At least 7 to 8 of those are trying to win now and few others that might also be interested. There are also several higher end teams that would make room for a guy like that if the chance happens.

 

[acetehubernoob]

Seeing your posts on the topic, I feel like you are setting yourself up for a pretty big letdown.

Through their first 5 years respectively their stat lines amount to 82 game seasons of:
Larkin - 22.6 goals, 33.5 assists (56 points) averaging 19:03 ATOI. So roughly a player transitioning into a first line center role in terms of ice time
Lundell - 17.8 goals, 28 assists (46 points) averaging 16:37 ATOI. More of middle 6, leaning into a prominent 2nd liner. Cosplaying as a first liner this year with the injuries. With the larger role this year, his numbers translate to 23.1 and 33.3 which put him in that same 56-point range for one year, granted Larkin had already had a season threatening a point per game.

Point is, Lundell has a profile of a reasonable second line center that demonstrated untapped production tied to his role. Moving to Detroit, he would have a good chance of playing with one of Raymond or DeBrincat (assuming they are around) and likely a real look at first powerplay unit, as it will need a center to step in. Also at 24, while you begin to settle into what you are, there's nothing to say that there isn't more to be uncovered.

There's plenty of value in that trade offer, even if it doesn't have sex appeal.

you do know that larkin was playing on a bottom feeder team with shit line mates those years and lundell was on a cup winner playing a depth role, getting easier assignments ect. not disagreeing with your point, just think comparing the two players in that way is a little dubious at best

 

[Oddbob]

Maybe something around Marchenko and one of CBJs centers?

Maybe Larkin wouldn’t mind going there to play with his best friend.

No way, he won't waive for Columbus just cause of Werenski. CBJ hasn't been doing well either and CBJ is not a desired location.

 

[Hen Kolland]

you do know that larkin was playing on a bottom feeder team with shit line mates those years and lundell was on a cup winner playing a depth role, getting easier assignments ect. not disagreeing with your point, just think comparing the two players in that way is a little dubious at best

I do know that. He also played in a larger role, as a focal point on the first powerplay.

The team that Lundell was on this year was riddled with injuries to their top players that finished with 84 points, slightly above where the Wings were at most of Larkin's early years. Lundell was kind of a tweener first/second liner in terms of TOI. Most common linemates at even strength were Reinhart and Luostarinen, Larkin's were probably some combination of Zetterberg, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Fabbri depending on the year.

And to be clear, in no way am I saying that Lundell is close to matching Larkin or stands a likely chance to match his value. There's just a real possibility that Lundell comes into his own a little more given a consistent run higher in a lineup.

He isn't absent of draft pedigree, either. Some people had him as a top 10 prospect in the Lucas Raymond draft class. And don't forget people keep thinking that a breakthrough for Raymond is still possible to push for 90 points potentially. If you think he has room to still push forward, no reason to think that Lundell doesn't also have potential to continue his push for more as well.

 

[Frk It]

I do know that. He also played in a larger role, as a focal point on the first powerplay.

The team that Lundell was on this year was riddled with injuries to their top players that finished with 84 points, slightly above where the Wings were at most of Larkin's early years. Lundell was kind of a tweener first/second liner in terms of TOI. Most common linemates at even strength were Reinhart and Luostarinen, Larkin's were probably some combination of Zetterberg, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Fabbri depending on the year.

And to be clear, in no way am I saying that Lundell is close to matching Larkin or stands a likely chance to match his value. There's just a real possibility that Lundell comes into his own a little more given a consistent run higher in a lineup.

He isn't absent of draft pedigree, either. Some people had him as a top 10 prospect in the Lucas Raymond draft class. And don't forget people keep thinking that a breakthrough for Raymond is still possible to push for 90 points potentially. If you think he has room to still push forward, no reason to think that Lundell doesn't also have potential to continue his push for more as well.

From what I remember, people have been saying Lundell is a super solid bet to be a steady 2C since his draft year, but not likely to be anything more than that.

That’s been pretty spot on for his career so far.

He got 19 min a night this year and was able to play with guys like Marchand and Reinhart, and still did nothing to change that narrative.

 

[Frk It]

I think it could make sense for the wings to leak it if Larkin wasnt budging on his list of 3 teams at all. The public/media really turned on him when they saw the 3 teams on his list. Shortly after it leaked, all of a sudden theres reports that his list opened up to more teams relatively quickly.

I'm really starting to get behind the Utah band wagon here. If you can land one of Iginla/Desnoyer + Peterka and hopefully one other solid prospect like Beaudoin maybe, you take a step back next year but in 2 years time, the outlook of this teams future is way better.

I think Peterka is a guy who needs a little bounce back as well, but has all the tools to be a 70-80 point guy in the league

I really like those possibilities for us.

I also think Larkin/Cooley could be a pretty damn good 1-2 punch for them down the middle as well.

 

[Hen Kolland]

From what I remember, people have been saying Lundell is a super solid bet to be a steady 2C since his draft year, but not likely to be anything more than that.

That’s been pretty spot on for his career so far.

He got 19 min a night this year and was able to play with guys like Marchand and Reinhart, and still did nothing to change that narrative.

Im not saying he becomes a 1C, but I'm saying he has the potential to push from a 40-50 point guy to maybe a guy who is 55-65 depending on his deployment and a bit of continued development.

This year was trending towards that mid 50 point range based purely off of filling in a portion of what Barkov left vacant.

 

[Frk It]

Im not saying he becomes a 1C, but I'm saying he has the potential to push from a 40-50 point guy to maybe a guy who is 55-65 depending on his deployment and a bit of continued development.

This year was trending towards that mid 50 point range based purely off of filling in a portion of what Barkov left vacant.

My expectation if we trade for either McTavish or Lundell is they come here and are a ~50 point 2C.

I think if you’re expecting more than that, decent chance you’re gonna be disappointed.

 

[jkutswings]

My expectation if we trade for either McTavish or Lundell is they come here and are a ~50 point 2C.

I think if you’re expecting more than that, decent chance you’re gonna be disappointed.

Very fair. In general there tends to be confusion between a ceiling, a baseline expectation, and a realistic projection.

Like Desnoyers, the most likely prospect we would target from Utah:
* If the kid absolutely knocks it out of the park, he's something similar to the next Bergeron. That's his absolute ceiling if EVERYTHING comes up aces.
* I think a minimum / safe expectation is a 45-55 point center who is very responsible defensively. He has a very mature game for only having finished his D+1, and a 2-way 2C is a healthy floor for the kid.
* If I'm trading for him, I view him as a good 2C with a chance to be a fringe 1C. That's a range in between the two previous projections. I'm not penciling him in based on the best possible outcome, but I'm allowing for some opportunity above the baseline.

Just don't tell any of that to Mammoth fans. Because nobody would ever trade the surefire next Bergeron.

 

[Frk It]

Very fair. In general there tends to be confusion between a ceiling, a baseline expectation, and a realistic projection.

Like Desnoyers, the most likely prospect we would target from Utah:
* If the kid absolutely knocks it out of the park, he's something similar to the next Bergeron. That's his absolute ceiling if EVERYTHING comes up aces.
* I think a minimum / safe expectation is a 45-55 point center who is very responsible defensively. He has a very mature game for only having finished his D+1, and a 2-way 2C is a healthy floor for the kid.
* If I'm trading for him, I view him as a good 2C with a chance to be a fringe 1C. That's a range in between the two previous projections. I'm not penciling him in based on the best possible outcome, but I'm allowing for some opportunity above the baseline.

Just don't tell any of that to Mammoth fans. Because nobody would ever trade the surefire next Bergeron.

My whole thing with Desnoyers is I just think that’s the best you’re gonna get. (More or less our sweetspot on the market)

I don’t think guys like Misa, Frondell, or Fantilli are attainable.

I think guys like McTavish or Frondell are already pretty crystallized on what they are.

Another guy out there I could find appealing in a similar vein would be O’Brien from Seattle… but I don’t know if they’d be open to moving him, or if Larkin would be open to going there.

 

[FMichael]

yeah, but he's also put 40 points up consistently despite it. He's not my ideal return for Larkin, but I wouldn't mind getting him. Really like the idea of getting something we like from Utah and trying to pull McTavish in a separate deal.

That would be ideal…Was thinking along similar lines - if Larkin was sent packing to FLA for Lundell and the 9th overall pick - that 1st rounder could be used to acquire McTavish.

 

[FMichael]

I think it could make sense for the wings to leak it if Larkin wasnt budging on his list of 3 teams at all. The public/media really turned on him when they saw the 3 teams on his list. Shortly after it leaked, all of a sudden theres reports that his list opened up to more teams relatively quickly.

I'm really starting to get behind the Utah band wagon here. If you can land one of Iginla/Desnoyer + Peterka and hopefully one other solid prospect like Beaudoin maybe, you take a step back next year but in 2 years time, the outlook of this teams future is way better.

I think Peterka is a guy who needs a little bounce back as well, but has all the tools to be a 70-80 point guy in the league

Peterka can also Deutsch it up with Mo and Marco.

 

[acetehubernoob]

I do know that. He also played in a larger role, as a focal point on the first powerplay.

The team that Lundell was on this year was riddled with injuries to their top players that finished with 84 points, slightly above where the Wings were at most of Larkin's early years. Lundell was kind of a tweener first/second liner in terms of TOI. Most common linemates at even strength were Reinhart and Luostarinen, Larkin's were probably some combination of Zetterberg, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Fabbri depending on the year.

And to be clear, in no way am I saying that Lundell is close to matching Larkin or stands a likely chance to match his value. There's just a real possibility that Lundell comes into his own a little more given a consistent run higher in a lineup.

He isn't absent of draft pedigree, either. Some people had him as a top 10 prospect in the Lucas Raymond draft class. And don't forget people keep thinking that a breakthrough for Raymond is still possible to push for 90 points potentially. If you think he has room to still push forward, no reason to think that Lundell doesn't also have potential to continue his push for more as well.

like i said, i dont disagree with your point, its more the way you get to that point that i disagree with. i just dont really think you can compare them since their first few years of their careers their usages and the quality of teams they played on were so drastically different.