Speculation: Larkin trade return

[FMichael]

Ok. Let's project this forward with a fairly optimistic take within the spectrum of what might happen.

Let's say that Larkin has been the majority of the issue in the locker room, and that trading him for Barzal completely eliminates that obstacle. And that just this one trade results in Detroit making the playoffs as a wild card next season.

Do you think adding the remainder of the imminent youth is enough to elevate Detroit from wild card to Cup contender? Or that Detroit has the assets to trade for any remaining needs to reach that level while Barzal is still playing at a high level?

I would argue no, but if you think it's yes, then I can understand making a trade like this. But know that you're boxing yourself in, where you need to become a legit playoff threat in the next 2-3 years, or you're back to where the Wings are now at center, but with Seider and Raymond having a few less prime years left.

I think that's a VERY tall task. That's why I'd rather not even consider any main trade pieces over 25, at least in the Larkin deal.

To be honest - right now I just want to see a team that puts forth a solid effort throughout the entire season and is capable of making the playoffs - that alone would be a big step forward - what becomes of that we’ll see.

I’ll be honest and say that I don’t have much hope for this club in becoming a contender any time soon - what Yzerman gets in return could very well see us surpass Buffalo’s playoff drought. Nothing is guaranteed and I’m in favor of immediate gratification and if that means it’s an even trade to accomplish that then so be it.

 

[FMichael]

This x1000

I know we all want to be relevant again AND it's not our money to lose, but a misguided vain attempt to fight for a playoff spot in 2027 will assuredly fail and that will lead to a protracted longterm rebuild...

But we’re already in a longterm rebuild…

 

[jkutswings]

To be honest - right now I just want to see a team that puts forth a solid effort throughout the entire season and is capable of making the playoffs - that alone would be a big step forward - what becomes of that we’ll see.

I’ll be honest and say that I don’t have much hope for this club in becoming a contender any time soon - what Yzerman gets in return could very well see us surpass Buffalo’s playoff drought. Nothing is guaranteed and I’m in favor of immediate gratification and if that means it’s an even trade to accomplish that then so be it.

Understandable. After seven years and currently frustrating circumstances, each fan has their own preference on next steps. I'm already at the point that there's little to nothing Yzerman can do to save his job, so I'm in the camp of a big reset to both the front office and the roster.

Hopefully there's good news by the start of the draft.

 

[SantosHalper]

How the plan should go, from now on, here's my plan, HenkkasPlan:

We should tighten this core by age-gap, trade by trade, year-by-year. Some youth is always welcomed to exist, but if you use 19-20-year olds Bear and MBN as trade capital, so be it. If you get same value in higher age back, it's reasonable.

There are players leaving, just like Larkin is leaving from us, for different reasons, all the time. Time to capitalize these situations.

So instead of waiting prospects to develop, we wait until someone is leaving elsewhere?

First problem what im seeing is, why would the likes of Hischier and Robertson sign here? Winning attracts and Wings ain't doing much winning.

Here's a couple trade packages of the 19-21 year olds we have.
Danielson+Bear+Genborg+1st
Finnie+MBN+Plante+1st

You can shuffle them differently but realistically what kind of player you expect to get?

Good player gonna cost what 3-4 assets? 2-3 players per trade, couple of trades and asset bank is empty and you are left with picks and b-prospects. And I don't see the likes of McTavish and Hayton changing the direction.

Age gap ain't that big of a deal, teams with a mix of vets and youths have been succesfull. They don't have to be all in same age. If Mo and Ray are 7/8-years older than 2027 1st round pick it's hardly an issue. Higher pick, usually more readier player. Developmental time is more essential than age gap.

 

[dj4aces]

Ok. Let's project this forward with a fairly optimistic take within the spectrum of what might happen.

Let's say that Larkin has been the majority of the issue in the locker room, and that trading him for Barzal completely eliminates that obstacle. And that just this one trade results in Detroit making the playoffs as a wild card next season.

Do you think adding the remainder of the imminent youth is enough to elevate Detroit from wild card to Cup contender? Or that Detroit has the assets to trade for any remaining needs to reach that level while Barzal is still playing at a high level?

I would argue no, but if you think it's yes, then I can understand making a trade like this. But know that you're boxing yourself in, where you need to become a legit playoff threat in the next 2-3 years, or you're back to where the Wings are now at center, but with Seider and Raymond having a few less prime years left.

I think that's a VERY tall task, if only because I think it'll be another 2-3 years before all of Kasper / Danielson / MBN / Bear / Cossa or Augustine are on their feet, let alone producing well. That's why I'd rather not even consider any main trade pieces over 25, at least in the Larkin deal.

I don't think adding just the "remainder of the imminent youth" is enough, no. Cup contenders aren't built that way, at least not these days. How many players do Carolina and Vegas have on their rosters that they drafted and developed? Two? Three, maybe?

If this roster is gonna go, from the optimistic view, from a fledgling playoff team to a solid Cup contender, you're gonna do so through trades and free agency. I previously said that I believed in the youth movement, but that movement is only part of the puzzle. That movement is only good if the youth is good/has promise, and if some of that youth can be turned into assets that'll help us take the next step.

So, assuming we can turn Larkin into Barzal, someone who can play center, that is actually good for 70+pts, that's one piece of the puzzle. It's not the whole puzzle, and I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we missed the playoffs again this coming season (my "taking a step back"), but it does allow us to keep moving without missing much. It's akin to driving over a speed bump instead of hitting a pothole at 60mph. If we do the latter as an organization because Larkin wants out, then there's a much bigger problem within the organization that needs to be righted..

 

[Henkka]

Sorry...what?

Are you referring to Iginla here?

Iginla?

Quote was for Barzal .

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Iginla?

Quote was for Barzal .

ok gotcha

 

[Henkka]

So instead of waiting prospects to develop, we wait until someone is leaving elsewhere?

Yeah. We wait for both things. For opportunities.

First problem what im seeing is, why would the likes of Hischier and Robertson sign here? Winning attracts and Wings ain't doing much winning.

I already did write that if those won't work, then we forgot them and target for the 19-25 core.

So can you read or do I have to repeat same things?

Here's a couple trade packages of the 19-21 year olds we have.
Danielson+Bear+Genborg+1st
Finnie+MBN+Plante+1st

You can shuffle them differently but realistically what kind of player you expect to get?

Depends what is on sale. What are our needs. Build the damn team full and see the holes. I do this all the time keeper leagues and it's kind of easy and simple thing to find plugs on the holes. Then negotiate. Would be more fun if you try to do it yourself?

Good player gonna cost what 3-4 assets? 2-3 players per trade, couple of trades and asset bank is empty and you are left with picks and b-prospects. And I don't see the likes of McTavish and Hayton changing the direction.

Age cap ain't that big of a deal, teams with a mix of vets and youths have been succesfull. They don't have to be all in same age. If Mo and Ray are 7/8-years older than 2027 1st round pick it's hardly an issue. Higher pick, usually more readier player. Developmental time is more essential than age cap.

There's always some vets as exception. Marchand at Florida. Staal at Carolina. But the main core should be same like it has been at many winners.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I don't think adding just the "remainder of the imminent youth" is enough, no. Cup contenders aren't built that way, at least not these days. How many players do Carolina and Vegas have on their rosters that they drafted and developed? Two? Three, maybe?

If this roster is gonna go, from the optimistic view, from a fledgling playoff team to a solid Cup contender, you're gonna do so through trades and free agency. I previously said that I believed in the youth movement, but that movement is only part of the puzzle. That movement is only good if the youth is good/has promise, and if some of that youth can be turned into assets that'll help us take the next step.

So, assuming we can turn Larkin into Barzal, someone who can play center, that is actually good for 70+pts, that's one piece of the puzzle. It's not the whole puzzle, and I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we missed the playoffs again this coming season (my "taking a step back"), but it does allow us to keep moving without missing much. It's akin to driving over a speed bump instead of hitting a pothole at 60mph. If we do the latter as an organization because Larkin wants out, then there's a much bigger problem within the organization that needs to be righted..

Barzal does not fill Larkins hole though, and the team was already not good with Larkin and needed a Barzal for line #2, a top line LT winger, 2 or 3 bottom 6 impactful depth players AND a better more consistent Gibson

 

[dj4aces]

Barzal does not fill Larkins hole though, and the team was already not good with Larkin and needed a Barzal for line #2, a top line LT winger, 2 or 3 bottom 6 impactful depth players AND a better more consistent Gibson

I used Barzal as an example because the quoted used Barzal. His upside is, he did score 70 points. The downside, last season was the first time for that, and some could argue that it was a fluke. He's also 29, not giving him much room to grow. Could he center Raymond and whoever we put on the left, and put up 70? No idea.

 

[Henkka]

I used Barzal as an example because the quoted used Barzal. His upside is, he did score 70 points. The downside, last season was the first time for that, and some could argue that it was a fluke. He's also 29, not giving him much room to grow.

Could he center Raymond and whoever we put on the left, and put up 70? No idea.

No.

He is not a freaking Center. Career winger for 10 seasons like Martin Necas.

 

[Vandalay Industries]

Is that not what St Louis was asking for for Thomas? Four first round valued assets? I don’t think Larkin returns all of that, but I sure hope Yzerman gets something close.

That might be what they asked for... But did they get it?

 

[Henkka]

Larkin could be valued 3 first round valued younger assets.

Go and build your offer.

 

[simonedvinsson]

Barzal does not fill Larkins hole

 

[SantosHalper]

Yeah. We wait for both things. For opportunities.

Same thing can be done even if we re-tool next season. No need to target specific age group by spending assets. For example if Tampa is interested in Larkin, demand those late 2020's 1st as part of the package. By then Wings should be trending up and Tampa down, those picks and surplus prospects should make a good package. Maybe even the picks alone could get the job done, if they end up being near each other by or even B2B like in Dobson's case. Gain assets now and at next TDL, look for trades in 28'/29' summers.

I already did write that if those won't work, then we forgot them and target for the 19-25 core.

Biggest need is 1c. Who's gonna trade their 19-25 year old potential 1c? A very specific trade, may never come up.

Depends what is on sale. What are our needs. Build the damn team full and see the holes. I do this all the time keeper leagues and it's kind of easy and simple thing to find plugs on the holes. Then negotiate. Would be more fun if you try to do it yourself?

I don't know what a keeper league is. If nothing earth shattering is for sale, Wings gonna end up re-tooling anyways. Now im not saying that will solve all the problems because that could fail as well. But if the ending result is the same, might as well do it now. Floating around waiting for trades will cost time as well.

Really drive in the previously drafted guys to see what we have and we find out what holes we really have. If the nose dive is succesfull and we get a potential 1c from the draft and we know the other holes by then. We have more assets to make the trades to patch up the possible holes.

Most of the +25 year olds are finished products, if somebody is moving them for futures, i don't think they can move the needle for us.

Both plans can fail, questions is do we want to know it now or later on.

There's always some vets as exception. Marchand at Florida. Staal at Carolina. But the main core should be same like it has been at many winners.

If re-tool plan would be succesful and we get 1c from the 2027 draft in 5 years Seider would be 30 and 1c 22. Not that big gap, last time Wings won Lidström and Datsyuk had 8 year gap as well. If main core doesn't have enough difference makers, it doesn't matter if they are same age.

 

[ricky0034]

I used Barzal as an example because the quoted used Barzal. His upside is, he did score 70 points. The downside, last season was the first time for that, and some could argue that it was a fluke. He's also 29, not giving him much room to grow. Could he center Raymond and whoever we put on the left, and put up 70? No idea.

huh? it was his third time

 

[acetehubernoob]

Is that not what St Louis was asking for for Thomas? Four first round valued assets? I don’t think Larkin returns all of that, but I sure hope Yzerman gets something close.

i think a lot of posters here are using their anger at larkin to bring down his trade value. from the sounds of it there seems to be a bunch of teams seriously interested and all it takes for a bidding war is 2. also his contract with the cap going up is an absolute steal for the next 5 years, that alone adds a shit ton to his value.

 

[Waldorf]

Are there any articles which have detailed the way GMs actually approach it? Like I doubt that Yzerman would tell say, one GM the bid that another GM had given. Maybe something vague like I'd like a little bit more or something but not more than that.

 

[jkutswings]

Are there any articles which have detailed the way GMs actually approach it? Like I doubt that Yzerman would tell say, one GM the bid that another GM had given. Maybe something vague like I'd like a little bit more or something but not more than that.

I can't imagine they would name specific assets in negotiations with other teams. But at least the number of other teams interested, and maybe specific teams interested. I'm sure there's plenty of posturing and some bluffing going on as well, but once any of that gets out of hand it's going to impact your reputation around the league to try and get other deals done.

 

[FMichael]

No.

He is not a freaking Center. Career winger for 10 seasons like Martin Necas.

Hmm - after further research and looking at GDT over on the NYI forum - it does appear Barzal is on the top line right wing with Horvat centering him.

 

[dj4aces]

Hmm - after further research and looking at GDT over on the NYI forum - it does appear Barzal is on the top line right wing with Horvat centering him.

Yeah, I saw that too. He's listed as both a center and a winger, though, so he's at least played it at some point. Minors or juniors?

 

[FMichael]

Yeah, I saw that too. He's listed as both a center and a winger, though, so he's at least played it at some point. Minors or juniors?

I am under the impression Barzal has been on the wing since Horvat's arrival in 2023...So likely a center until then.

 

[lilidk]

Still you guys won't get it. Tanking now, let's say for 2 years, does give us the next wave of promising 16-17 year olds.

The truth is, they won't fit on the Raymond- Seider timeline, who are 24-25 olds.

It's the same problem repeated as it was with Larkin (and Bert, Mantha, Hronek) core. Even bigger age gap.

The only solution is a trade-fest, getting better core pieces fitting to this current core timeline.

Larkin had Mantha , Bert and Hronek while Seider have Raymond, Ed, Kasper , ASP, Finnie, MBN and Danielson. Also Kane , Cat and Faulk . There's a big difference between both clubs

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Still you guys won't get it. Tanking now, let's say for 2 years, does give us the next wave of promising 16-17 year olds.

The truth is, they won't fit on the Raymond- Seider timeline, who are 24-25 olds.

It's the same problem repeated as it was with Larkin (and Bert, Mantha, Hronek) core. Even bigger age gap.

The only solution is a trade-fest, getting better core pieces fitting to this current core timeline.

Biggest difference....Mo and Raymond aren't Bert, Mantha and Hronek AND if anyone is comparing them then we might as well start a total tear down rebuild...

Those 3 were not building blocks...that's why they were dealt away.. had they been young budding stars we would have kept them and built around them and down..

If Mo and Ray hockey's sense leads them to think this team minus Larkin and with a Mctavish and Pettersson is a cup contender, I question not only their hockey sense but their common sense

 

[wingsfannnn9191]

Larkin had Mantha , Bert and Hronek while Seider have Raymond, Ed, Kasper , ASP, Finnie, MBN and Danielson. Also Kane , Cat and Faulk . There's a big difference between both clubs

But we just lost jvr so it’s game over