Value of: Lane Hutson's contract extension on July 1st

Habs Halifax

Loyal Habs Fan
Jul 11, 2016
71,146
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East Coast
If I'm lane there is no way I bridge here. The deal will start when he is 22.5 years old. If you sign a 3 year bridge then 8 that takes you to 33.5 and it could be hard to get another meaningful deal. I'd want a 5 or 6 year deal now so if he is still good around 27-28 it allows him to sign another big money 8 year deal. Quinn hughes got a 6 year deal.

He's playing just behind quinn hughes pace for his 1st year. I'd want something a little less than Hughes cap percentage if I was lane. If montreal wouldn't give it to me I'd play the 2nd year of the elc and try to match Hughes 2nd year pace to go after equal cap percentage.

6-8 years is what term they will land at in my opinion. Habs will push for 8 and Hutson's side will push for a higher AAV if it's 8 years.

6 years at $7.75M would be my guess.

The critical part to all of this is how many RFA years are in his extension. I know it's at least 5 years and not sure if the 6th year is RFA or UFA. He turns 21 in Feb on valentines day, but this is basically his age 20 season.
 
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crackdown44

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Dec 1, 2017
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How so? The history of the sport supports every word I’ve said. Should’ve teams paid Sandis Ozolinsh like Ray Bourque? Steve Duchesne like Rob Blake? Tyson Barrie like Ryan McDonagh?

Hutson, if he can stay healthy, could very easily become this generation’s 1990s Paul Coffey. It’s the closest comparison to him right now. He was once the NHL’s best offensive weapon from the blue line, and just like Hutson, wouldn’t have played a single NHL game, if he was in the lineup to be a traditional dman.

Hutson is even at a disadvantage to that comparison because Coffey could’ve changed the way he played 4-5 years into a contract, if he really needed to. He just chose to never do so. Hutson will likely never have that choice. Out of pure necessity to survive, he’ll never be able to play the position in a traditional way, because of his body structure. You can only take so much punishment at under 160lbs. Your body will breakdown. You will end up concussed numerous times.

Detroit ended up trading Coffey, because they knew they couldn’t win Championships with him, and finally accepted they couldn’t hide him enough anymore. Scotty Bowman has talked about this. The NHL had started playing defensive systems. The wide open 1980s were over.

That team had Nick Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov, and still couldn’t hide Coffey enough.

Those are facts. That’s the reality of having a Dman you wouldn’t have on your NHL team if not for his being an offensive weapon.

This isn’t a PK Subban situation, where he could’ve made the choice to work on his defensive game. This is a 155lb player, pushing 21, who can’t put on any muscle or weight. He’s at a massive physical disadvantage. This is no Quinn Hughes situation either. Quinn has 25-30lbs on Hutson, only being an inch taller. He’s a bulldozer.

Detroit literally replaced Coffey in their line-up, with Larry effen Murphy, who they got for free in a trade, because he’d become a pylon in Toronto. They ended up winning 3 Cups with Murphy in the lineup, instead of the best offensive dman of his generation.

Bottom line is, you win playoff rounds and Cups with great Dmen, who can be great at both ends of the ice. Not giving wealth contracts to offensive weapons on your blue line.

So Hutson is nothing new to the NHL.

Yes, he’s fun to watch on a team not in the mix. Let’s see how fun he is to watch in playoff games, when the game tightens up, and bodies are flying around. When guys 50, 60, 70lbs heavier, start taking shots at him.

Unfortunately for Montreal, they don’t have a Nick Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov to hide Hutson, and those guys still, could only hide Coffey to a certain point.

Once again, you play the game to win Stanley Cups, not be the most exciting. There were many fans in Detroit irate they traded Coffey. He was fun to watch as well. Fans who couldn’t be found after they started winning Cups.

So if you don’t think Montreal is concerned with handing 8-10% of their cap to a player they can’t have on the ice during important minutes of a playoff game, you’re just not dealing in reality. They will try everything possible to bridge him and stall, until they’re forced to make a decision. All while they try finding ways to protect him.

They have to compete with Buffalo and Detroit handing wealth contracts to Seider, Power, Dahlin and Edvinsson, and Montreal fans are ready to hand that much of Montreal’s cap to someone you can’t put on the ice in 3rd Periods of 1 goal playoff games?

Once again, you play to win Cups, not be exciting in the regular season. If Hutson gets through a playoff defying all logic, hand him 12% of your cap. People would change their minds. That’s just not logically going to happen though.

You contradict yourself. You say Coffey couldn’t win cups in Detroit, even though he’s a 4 time cup champion, because the game had changed

Then you go on to say Hutson won’t do well in the playoffs because he’s too small and can’t play physical, as if the game today isn’t drastically different as well

There are ways to defend without being overly physical. Hutson isn’t very good defensively right now, but he has ample time to figure it out. To completely write him off just because he’s small is nonsense
 
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Habs Halifax

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Jul 11, 2016
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Habs try for 8 years but have to lower it to 6 to get the AAV around Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf.

6x $7.75M. I believe that is 5 RFA years and 1 UFA. This stuff is important. Hutson would then become a UFA at the age of 26 (like Q Hughes)
 
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GCK

Registered User
Oct 15, 2018
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It would be a bad move for Hutson to sign now but he doesn’t have the most experienced agent. I think the Habs get it done around the Suzuki and Caufield AAV.
 
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BLONG7

Registered User
Oct 30, 2002
37,225
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Nova Scotia
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How so? The history of the sport supports every word I’ve said. Should’ve teams paid Sandis Ozolinsh like Ray Bourque? Steve Duchesne like Rob Blake? Tyson Barrie like Ryan McDonagh?

Hutson, if he can stay healthy, could very easily become this generation’s 1990s Paul Coffey. It’s the closest comparison to him right now. He was once the NHL’s best offensive weapon from the blue line, and just like Hutson, wouldn’t have played a single NHL game, if he was in the lineup to be a traditional dman.

Hutson is even at a disadvantage to that comparison because Coffey could’ve changed the way he played 4-5 years into a contract, if he really needed to. He just chose to never do so. Hutson will likely never have that choice. Out of pure necessity to survive, he’ll never be able to play the position in a traditional way, because of his body structure. You can only take so much punishment at under 160lbs. Your body will breakdown. You will end up concussed numerous times.

Detroit ended up trading Coffey, because they knew they couldn’t win Championships with him, and finally accepted they couldn’t hide him enough anymore. Scotty Bowman has talked about this. The NHL had started playing defensive systems. The wide open 1980s were over.

That team had Nick Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov, and still couldn’t hide Coffey enough.

Those are facts. That’s the reality of having a Dman you wouldn’t have on your NHL team if not for his being an offensive weapon.

This isn’t a PK Subban situation, where he could’ve made the choice to work on his defensive game. This is a 155lb player, pushing 21, who can’t put on any muscle or weight. He’s at a massive physical disadvantage. This is no Quinn Hughes situation either. Quinn has 25-30lbs on Hutson, only being an inch taller. He’s a bulldozer.

Detroit literally replaced Coffey in their line-up, with Larry effen Murphy, who they got for free in a trade, because he’d become a pylon in Toronto. They ended up winning 3 Cups with Murphy in the lineup, instead of the best offensive dman of his generation.

Bottom line is, you win playoff rounds and Cups with great Dmen, who can be great at both ends of the ice. Not giving wealth contracts to offensive weapons on your blue line.

So Hutson is nothing new to the NHL.

Yes, he’s fun to watch on a team not in the mix. Let’s see how fun he is to watch in playoff games, when the game tightens up, and bodies are flying around. When guys 50, 60, 70lbs heavier, start taking shots at him.

Unfortunately for Montreal, they don’t have a Nick Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov to hide Hutson, and those guys still, could only hide Coffey to a certain point.

Once again, you play the game to win Stanley Cups, not be the most exciting. There were many fans in Detroit irate they traded Coffey. He was fun to watch as well. Fans who couldn’t be found after they started winning Cups.

So if you don’t think Montreal is concerned with handing 8-10% of their cap to a player they can’t have on the ice during important minutes of a playoff game, you’re just not dealing in reality. They will try everything possible to bridge him and stall, until they’re forced to make a decision. All while they try finding ways to protect him.

They have to compete with Buffalo and Detroit handing wealth contracts to Seider, Power, Dahlin and Edvinsson, and Montreal fans are ready to hand that much of Montreal’s cap to someone you can’t put on the ice in 3rd Periods of 1 goal playoff games?

Once again, you play to win Cups, not be exciting in the regular season. If Hutson gets through a playoff defying all logic, hand him 12% of your cap. People would change their minds. That’s just not logically going to happen though.
Cap % and TOI in the playoffs is an interesting take............imagine Leaf fans realizing their GM gives 50% of their cap space to 4 guys, and they can't get out of the 1st round.

Bottom line is with Hutson is the Habs have a very good young Dman on their hands, who is going to get paid...........and for a team that has handled the cap very well, there should be no worries with cap % given out to this kid.
 

Benstheman

Registered User
Nov 20, 2014
7,506
3,829
Yeah I think Q.Hughes contract is the best comparable right now. 6 years X 7,85 M$ per. Hughes signed his contract after his ELC, after his 2nd complete season, at 21-22 yo. And his stats for his 1st season was similar to Hutson's this season.

Now off course, the cap will be higher for teams so Hutson's numbers should be a bit higher. But is he seen as being as good as Hughes? Maybe yes, maybe not quite. And Hughes had his draft pedigree for him also.

So if I had to guess, I would say the numbers would be pretty much identical to Hughes if 6 years is the term. If the term is higher, 7-8 years, it will off course raise the AAV.

If he is extended this summer, I would go for 6 years X 7,5 M$ AAV. If they wait after next season and he progresses, it will be 8 years X 9M$ AAV.
 

Washed Up 29YearOld

Bro Do You Even Hockey?
Apr 29, 2018
1,348
1,955
Buffalo NY
I’m 182 lbs just over 6 foot and I would get ROCKED on the boards at lower levels growing up as a kid. But a 5’6 155 lb DMAN?! He’ll never be good defensively unless he bulks up big time but he is so offensively gifted that he’ll still be an elite OFD. I’d do a bridge until he proves his durability. Although I’ve always been very high on him and he will be a very good offensive d man if he manages to avoid injuries. He desperately needs a partner who’s defensively minded, right handed, has wheels, and a good first pass. I just cringe when I see a board battle between a 250 lb 6’6 player and Hutson like he’s about to get murdered and I’m sure other GM’s feel the same way
 

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
4,611
4,158
6-8 years is what term they will land at in my opinion. Habs will push for 8 and Hutson's side will push for a higher AAV if it's 8 years.

6 years at $7.75M would be my guess.

The critical part to all of this is how many RFA years are in his extension. I know it's at least 5 years and not sure if the 6th year is RFA or UFA. He turns 21 in Feb on valentines day, but this is basically his age 20 season.

He has 5 years of RFA control

a 4 year deal would leave him an RFA at the end
a 5 year deal would leave him a UFA at the end

This is because they burned a year of ELC last year for that 2 game stint, but it did not count as an accrued year towards UFA, so he will not get to 7 years of service time until 2 years ELC+5 years beyond.
 

FriendlyGhost92

Registered User
Jun 22, 2023
4,602
5,500
Give him what he wants

We want the gooollllddd SUCKA.

Booker T.jpg
 

HuGo Sham

MR. CLEAN-up ©Runner77
Apr 7, 2010
29,183
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Montreal
I think he'll get in the Faber range, and I expect him to sign longterm just as Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle and Slafkovsky have all bought into the vision of the team and growing together as a young core
 

Sasha Orlov

Lord of the Manor
Sponsor
Jun 22, 2018
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I’m 182 lbs just over 6 foot and I would get ROCKED on the boards at lower levels growing up as a kid. But a 5’6 155 lb DMAN?! He’ll never be good defensively unless he bulks up big time but he is so offensively gifted that he’ll still be an elite OFD. I’d do a bridge until he proves his durability. Although I’ve always been very high on him and he will be a very good offensive d man if he manages to avoid injuries. He desperately needs a partner who’s defensively minded, right handed, has wheels, and a good first pass. I just cringe when I see a board battle between a 250 lb 6’6 player and Hutson like he’s about to get murdered and I’m sure other GM’s feel the same way
he is not 5’6 lol
 

HabsTown

Registered User
Jun 5, 2014
2,459
1,170
Montreal
I’m 182 lbs just over 6 foot and I would get ROCKED on the boards at lower levels growing up as a kid. But a 5’6 155 lb DMAN?! He’ll never be good defensively unless he bulks up big time but he is so offensively gifted that he’ll still be an elite OFD. I’d do a bridge until he proves his durability. Although I’ve always been very high on him and he will be a very good offensive d man if he manages to avoid injuries. He desperately needs a partner who’s defensively minded, right handed, has wheels, and a good first pass. I just cringe when I see a board battle between a 250 lb 6’6 player and Hutson like he’s about to get murdered and I’m sure other GM’s feel the same way
But he still comes out with the puck on his stick 9 times out of 10…
 

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