Lane Hutson Burgeoning Star Watch

[mphmiles]

I think people are putting too much emphasis on xGF% for a very young defenseman who has already had to play big 5v5 minutes and tough matchups, because Montreal doesn't really have anyone to insulate him- and I'm a pretty big numbers guy.

Moritz Seider was in the same situation a couple years ago, and his metrics were predictably awful. 20 year old defensemen that don't struggle at least a little bit 5v5-especially ones that are on the ice against the opposition's top players- are basically unicorns in this league.

 

[Habssince89]

Hutson has been very impressive each game. I love his hustle and commitment to defence. He's been very good at reading plays early and winning the puck before things can develop. Teams are playing him better now, but he's still deking guys and making the right plays under pressure. He's fine to stay in the NHL IMO

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Anyway, still 10x the points Luke has.

I’m sure Luke’s 1.3% on ice shooting percentage will keep up.

He just played an incredible game defensively against the defending champions. The points don’t matter a whole lot, everyone knows those are coming — too much raw talent. The leaps he’s made defensively in year 2 are why he’s looking like a good bet to be a future star. Couldn’t be happier with his development.

 

[viceroy]

I think he kind of reminds me of Marc-Andre Bergeron.

That ole chestnut... The kid may not be a Makar but he's also no Bergeron.

Should I remind me of Kovacevic? Wasn’t he a Hab? Big right shot, but damn that 4th rounder was so important.

Let’s ask devils fans about that pairing so far?
There seems to be a few devils fans in this thread seeing as they played last night…

Scrap that soegenthaler and Kovacevic are only top 10 in defensive metrics this season as a pairing.

I was against trading Kovacevic myself. Perfect bottom pairing RD for us for the next few years. I mean we have Mailloux, Reinbacher and Konyushkov coming up but for the right now? Bad move.

Maybe one day you’ll actually get off the internet and couch and go watch a game live, good learning experience.

Agree. It doesn't have to be the NHL either. Watch AHL, ECHL or CHL. Concentrate on certain players. If you pay close attention you'll notice some stuff that never makes it onto the stats charts.

Dude should be in the minors for his development, he's getting bullied out there.

Yeah. Or maybe he should take a few games off kinda like Michkov ehhh?

 

[dgibb10]

Yet on the eye test Luke seems to be the one who has struggled the most.

Learn the difference between « expected » and « reality »

He’s 20 years old with 17 NHL games experience. I know you’re hold enough to remember how Quinn was when he was 20 years.

Yes, Luke has gotten quite unlucky with a ridiculously low 1.4% on ice shooting %. You talk about Hutson's teammates being unable to finish for him, when the reality is Luke's teammates are the ones who have been unable to bury a puck.

I think people are putting too much emphasis on xGF% for a very young defenseman who has already had to play big 5v5 minutes and tough matchups, because Montreal doesn't really have anyone to insulate him- and I'm a pretty big numbers guy.

Moritz Seider was in the same situation a couple years ago, and his metrics were predictably awful. 20 year old defensemen that don't struggle at least a little bit 5v5-especially ones that are on the ice against the opposition's top players- are basically unicorns in this league.

Mo Seider was around 47%, Hutson is around 39%.

 

[dgibb10]

And Montreal's 5 on 5 goal share with Hutson on the ice is 13/14 as opposed to 17-33 with him off the ice.

Not to mention any methodology that denotes Matheson as the better defenseman is heavily flawed.

The methodology says Guhle clears not Matheson.

Oh really?

Everyone else getting vastly outshot and outchanced while on the ice except luke. Everyone else giving up a metric f***ton of chances against except luke.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Not sure how this became a Montreal vs New Jersey thing, but I'm pretty sure both teams are very happy with their prospects lol

 

[viceroy]

Better than Casey, better than Hughes and certainly better than Simon "He could have gone 1st overall!!1" Nemec

You mean "top pairing dman" Nemec? It can't be! The guy is a top rd in the league. That's what master advance stats said

I got some static a while back because I wasn't riding Nemec's "expletive deleted." I thought he had potential but couldn't understand why people were going nuts. I even watched an additional handful of games of his and wasn't swayed. I did the same thing with Evan Bouchard. I think EDM will regret it if they give him a 10+ million AAV contract

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Yes, Luke has gotten quite unlucky with a ridiculously low 1.4% on ice shooting %. You talk about Hutson's teammates being unable to finish for him, when the reality is Luke's teammates are the ones who have been unable to bury a puck.


Mo Seider was around 47%, Hutson is around 39%.

By the eye test, I think the difference is the ability to anticipate passes and get shots off. If you'd watched Hutson much this year, as most Habs fans have, you'd see him making a lot of plays to guys who aren't expecting it and end up fumbling it and failing to even get a shot attempt off.

I think it's something you'll see corrected later in the season as his teammates start to understand his playing style and anticipate the creative plays that he makes.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Better than Casey, better than Hughes and certainly better than Simon "He could have gone 1st overall!!1" Nemec

I mean look if you want to DEBATE Casey and Nemec, I guess fine?

But in no world or universe is he better than Luke Hughes. Hughes so far this year has been a beast defensively.

 

[My3Sons]

I got some static a while back because I wasn't riding Nemec's "expletive deleted." I thought he had potential but couldn't understand why people were going nuts. I even watched an additional handful of games of his and wasn't swayed. I did the same thing with Evan Bouchard. I think EDM will regret it if they give him a 10+ million AAV contract



LOL. Meanwhile Xirik and dgibb10 are out here like we're dating their exes.

As a group we have to get past the hyperbole. Hutson is a very talented player and he's having some success in the NHL. MTL is playing him like an established veteran and putting an awful lot of effort into his development. Clearly they see him as a future mainstay. He's guilty of some mistakes and maybe a bit limited right now but that's fine. He's still 20. So are the NJ guys at issue. They can all be excellent players eventually. Crapping on any of these guys says more about the poster than the player.

 

[dgibb10]

By the eye test, I think the difference is the ability to anticipate passes and get shots off. If you'd watched Hutson much this year, as most Habs fans have, you'd see him making a lot of plays to guys who aren't expecting it and end up fumbling it and failing to even get a shot attempt off.

I think it's something you'll see corrected later in the season as his teammates start to understand his playing style and anticipate the creative plays that he makes.

Frankly that to me feels like eye test bias for a fanbase that really wants it to not be Hutson's fault.

Which is natural, it's much easier to blame the player's around Hutson to make a fanbase feel better about the future. It was difficult for some in the NJD fanbase to accept Casey and/or Nemec's struggles this year as well (especially casey since he had the promising counting stats)

He does a lot of good things offensively.

However, he often fails to make the simple play, missing out on the good play as he tries to force the great play. Hence why his on ice shot generation is so low.

And he often takes himself to positions that he does not have the skating to recover from.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Frankly that to me feels like eye test bias for a fanbase that really wants it to not be Hutson's fault.

Which is natural, it's much easier to blame the player's around Hutson to make a fanbase feel better about the future.

He does a lot of good things offensively.

However, he often fails to make the simple play, missing out on the good play as he tries to force the great play. Hence why his on ice shot generation is so low.

And he often takes himself to positions that he does not have the skating to recover from.

Yeah I don't think you know what you're talking about with regards to him.

Hutson has plenty to improve on, but the amount of plays he creates that die on the sticks of unsuspecting teammates is significant.

I'm under no delusions regarding the quality of this team, but I would recommend watching some Montreal games to see what I'm talking about.

 

[MNRube]

Better than Casey, better than Hughes and certainly better than Simon "He could have gone 1st overall!!1" Nemec

Slaf the next Jagr, Suzuki > Stutzle, Demidov > Michkov, and Hutson > L.Hughes/Nemec

NHL should just shut down from 2027 - 2035 bc the Habs are apparently the greatest young team in NHL history and will win all the Cups

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah I don't think you know what you're talking about with regards to him.

Hutson has plenty to improve on, but the amount of plays he creates that die on the sticks of unsuspecting teammates is significant.

I'm under no delusions regarding the quality of this team, but I would recommend watching some Montreal games to see what I'm talking about.

I don't deny that his teammates make mistakes.

The fact of the matter is that, with Hutson on the ice, MTL generates very few shots.

They generate significantly more with him on the bench.

The eye test lines up with him putting himself out of position, and trying to force the great play rather than make the simple play.

 

[bud12]

Hutson > L.Hughes/Nemec/Casey ainec

 

[Xirik]

Not sure how this became a Montreal vs New Jersey thing, but I'm pretty sure both teams are very happy with their prospects lol

Just look at the post above mine.

If some Hab's fan's stopped baiting Devils fan's it wouldn't happen.

Honestly though I have yet to see a Devils fan say he isn't going to be an NHL player or is terrible. Most are very complimentary of him, They are Just pointing out faults and criticisms about the player. Unless Hutson is a perfect player and has no faults I don't see why some Hab's fans are so defensive.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I’m sure Luke’s 1.3% on ice shooting percentage will keep up.

He just played an incredible game defensively against the defending champions. The points don’t matter a whole lot, everyone knows those are coming — too much raw talent. The leaps he’s made defensively in year 2 are why he’s looking like a good bet to be a future star. Couldn’t be happier with his development.

Does his 1.3% on ice shooting also affects his primary and secondary assists total?

Yes, Luke has gotten quite unlucky with a ridiculously low 1.4% on ice shooting %. You talk about Hutson's teammates being unable to finish for him, when the reality is Luke's teammates are the ones who have been unable to bury a puck.


Mo Seider was around 47%, Hutson is around 39%.

At what point does expectations has to become results? « He’s expected to do X but has Y results »

He’s getting hugely favorable deployments and competition and still can’t rack up points. At least his team/teammates around him are doing well so his advanced stats looks good.

Btw, here’s a real stats that matter (more than xGF)

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856128280824295785

https://x.com/i/web/status/1852370309724213265

 

[Xirik]

Does his 1.3% on ice shooting also affects his primary and secondary assists total?


At what point does expectations has to become results? « He’s expected to do X but has Y results »

He’s getting hugely favorable deployments and competition and still can’t rack up points. At least his team/teammates around him are doing well so his advanced stats looks good.

So last year was a mirage for Luke and him getting injured right before training camp and missing exhibition games plus missing 9 games this season has nothing to do with it.

A sound argument. I expect this take to look very good in the future.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Just look at the post above mine.

If some Hab's fan's stopped baiting Devils fan's it wouldn't happen.

Honestly though I have yet to see a Devils fan say he isn't going to be an NHL player or is terrible. Most are very complimentary of him, They are Just pointing out faults and criticisms about the player. Unless Hutson is a perfect player and has no faults I don't see why some Hab's fans are so defensive.

Isn’t the poster above you doing the same thing? Pointing out one player is superior to another is not bait and most of the time facts.

 

[Baksfamous112]

So last year was a mirage for Luke and him getting injured right before training camp and missing exhibition games plus missing 9 games this season has nothing to do with it.

A sound argument. I expect this take to look very good in the future.

All I hear is excuses. I’m sure he’s going to develop into a great top pairing D-man but maybe the best route for him right now is the AHL. I still really like the player and I think pointing out his fault and some criticisms should not warrant a response from Devils fans.

See how that sounds?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Does his 1.3% on ice shooting also affects his primary and secondary assists total?


At what point does expectations has to become results? « He’s expected to do X but has Y results »

He’s getting hugely favorable deployments and competition and still can’t rack up points. At least his team/teammates around him are doing well so his advanced stats looks good.

Btw, here’s a real stats that matter (more than xGF)

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856128280824295785

https://x.com/i/web/status/1852370309724213265

go look up how many minuses Luke Hughes had with the empty net last year. I bet you will enjoy!

 

[Baksfamous112]

go look up how many minuses Luke Hughes had with the empty net last year. I bet you will enjoy!

You tell me.

Hutson is playing 25 minutes a night against top competition, no PP1 while Montreal is clearly better when he’s on the ice then when he’s not and you’ve got Devils fans coming in telling us how he should be playing in the AHL

 

[bud12]

go look up how many minuses Luke Hughes had with the empty net last year. I bet you will enjoy!

You can do the same with Hutson. ENJOY!!!

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Does his 1.3% on ice shooting also affects his primary and secondary assists total?
]

yes, do you understand how anything works? That is the shooting percentage of his team when he’s on the ice. Obviously that will impact his assist total.

Last game he put a picture perfect pass on to Mercer’s stick to spring him for a breakaway, which he missed. Didn’t get a point. Who cares?