LAK 3, 'Bus 2 (OT win): Dustin Brown Lives

[Buddy The Elf]

Facts and reason can be an annoying thing sometimes.

Reason? I was just questioning the reasoning of a poster who claimed he'd move Martinez before King and Lewis. This was two days ago I believe. I know there was a lot more people calling for it last year but again, two days ago this statement was made.

 

[Fishhead]

One reason the Kings production is considered low is because of those horrible first 3 games. Without those, the Kings are producing at a pace of 2.83 goals per game, which is right around 6th in the league.

They also gave up 12 goals in those 3 games. which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive.

Over the last 24 games, the Kings have scored 2.83 GF/G and allowed 1.83 GA/G. That's pretty impressive, considering they haven't been all that lucky. The teams that have impressed the most with that stat are MTL, WAS, DAL, and the NYR. They are also 4 of the 5 highest PDO's in the league.

The point is, outside of a crappy first few games, the Kings have been absolutely one of the elite teams in the league. And they've been doing it without getting the bounces.

As fans, we always think of something as being wrong, but think about this. Outside of those first few games, has their been a game the Kings have been out of with no chance to win? They've lost one game since then by more than one goal, and Chicago scored a SHG with a minute and a half left to seal it. That's incredible and shows they just don't take nights off like they used to. This is a hungry team.

 

[Ron*]

http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

Good luck in your search

Yeah, I saw that some time ago and lost it. Guess I will bookmark that page lol.

Life is getting in the way tonight, so I'm not sure if I will be able to conduct the research tonight. But I will give it a try...curious about it for sure.

 

[KopitarFAN]

One reason the Kings production is considered low is because of those horrible first 3 games. Without those, the Kings are producing at a pace of 2.83 goals per game, which is right around 6th in the league.

They also gave up 12 goals in those 3 games. which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive.

Over the last 24 games, the Kings have scored 2.83 GF/G and allowed 1.83 GA/G. That's pretty impressive, considering they haven't been all that lucky. The teams that have impressed the most with that stat are MTL, WAS, DAL, and the NYR. They are also 4 of the 5 highest PDO's in the league.

The point is, outside of a crappy first few games, the Kings have been absolutely one of the elite teams in the league. And they've been doing it without getting the bounces.

As fans, we always think of something as being wrong, but think about this. Outside of those first few games, has their been a game the Kings have been out of with no chance to win? They've lost one game since then by more than one goal, and Chicago scored a SHG with a minute and a half left to seal it. That's incredible and shows they just don't take nights off like they used to. This is a hungry team.

I hate to be that guy, but couldn't that lead to fatigue when the games really matter?

 

[Herby]

Reason? I was just questioning the reasoning of a poster who claimed he'd move Martinez before King and Lewis. This was two days ago I believe. I know there was a lot more people calling for it last year but again, two days ago this statement was made.

Wasn't calling you out BTE, not at all.

Just the fact that someone else continues to bring up the potential Martinez trade as if it was some kind of unthinkable thing and refuses to acknowledge the vastly different circumstances the team was in about 14 months ago.

It's a fact that one of Muzzin, Voynov or AMart was going to have to be moved off the books for cap reasons, I think most agree it was not going to be Muzzin so it was going to be either VV or AMart, but some just find it preposterous to think it could have been Martinez.

In the end the decision was made on it's own when VV decided to beat up his girl and Mike Richards brought illegal drugs over the border and the Kings are in a good spot and everyone lives happily ever after.

 

[Zero Pucks Given]

One reason the Kings production is considered low is because of those horrible first 3 games. Without those, the Kings are producing at a pace of 2.83 goals per game, which is right around 6th in the league.

They also gave up 12 goals in those 3 games. which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive.

Over the last 24 games, the Kings have scored 2.83 GF/G and allowed 1.83 GA/G. That's pretty impressive, considering they haven't been all that lucky. The teams that have impressed the most with that stat are MTL, WAS, DAL, and the NYR. They are also 4 of the 5 highest PDO's in the league.

The point is, outside of a crappy first few games, the Kings have been absolutely one of the elite teams in the league. And they've been doing it without getting the bounces.

As fans, we always think of something as being wrong, but think about this. Outside of those first few games, has their been a game the Kings have been out of with no chance to win? They've lost one game since then by more than one goal, and Chicago scored a SHG with a minute and a half left to seal it. That's incredible and shows they just don't take nights off like they used to. This is a hungry team.

Come on. I can understand having a good amount of points early on to fall back on later in the season, but please, don't burn yourself out.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

One reason the Kings production is considered low is because of those horrible first 3 games. Without those, the Kings are producing at a pace of 2.83 goals per game, which is right around 6th in the league.

They also gave up 12 goals in those 3 games. which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive.

Over the last 24 games, the Kings have scored 2.83 GF/G and allowed 1.83 GA/G. That's pretty impressive, considering they haven't been all that lucky. The teams that have impressed the most with that stat are MTL, WAS, DAL, and the NYR. They are also 4 of the 5 highest PDO's in the league.

The point is, outside of a crappy first few games, the Kings have been absolutely one of the elite teams in the league. And they've been doing it without getting the bounces.

As fans, we always think of something as being wrong, but think about this. Outside of those first few games, has their been a game the Kings have been out of with no chance to win? They've lost one game since then by more than one goal, and Chicago scored a SHG with a minute and a half left to seal it. That's incredible and shows they just don't take nights off like they used to. This is a hungry team.

I was going to say that but I thought it would be condescending after all I posted..but yeah, there's really only a handful of games the Kings haven't been utterly dominant in, and of those, they were always in it, and it took another championship team to really take advantage. I mean, looking at our losses after the start, we outshot the opponent by 10+ in nearly every one of them, and most of them simply played hang-on-for-dear-life hockey.

this SHOULD is a tricky part for me to understand. correlation between possession and production goes as you're explaining, but it's not a mechanical law, just a statistical one, we're statistically assuming here. possession means less vulnerability and less chances for the opponents, but it doesn't generate goals itself. i suspect we should wait for another hard losing streak (variance is god), and then this question will be weighted.

another trick is evaluating defence performance with possession stats. one example: first goal yesterday was mostly kopi's fault, and that's hardly written in the possession stats.

but otherwise i mostly agree with you, great source, i'm learning as i write, thx.

I mean, no one is suggesting that performance/possession alone leads to goals. There have been times when I think you could accuse the Kings of simply padding their stats by shooting from everywhere, the point of my original post was just to point out that's not the case right now, we're getting volume shots AND volume grade-A scoring opportunities, where before it was simply outside shots in many cases. In other words, I'd say it's true possession dominance, not simply gaming Corsi stats. But, as an example of our 'luck' stats literally not being able to be much lower, Dustin Brown is a career 9.5% shooter; last season, he shot a career low 5.8, and this season he's an absolutely abysmal 2.4%. Now, I think some of that can be accounted for by his shot selection, but lots of it is simply dumb luck, and that goalies just aren't giving up softies vs. us. Can guys deteriorate as they get older? Certainly. But even Brown can't stay at 7% below his career average forever. We're doing well because of possession and IN SPITE of things like Brown's shooting percentage, where a team like NYR is doing well despite the second worst CF% in the league--46%--because their 'luck' stats are insanely high. What do you think is more likely, Dustin Brown's shooting percentage drifts back towards his career average, or the NYR goaltending tandem continues to put up an NHL record high save percentage in history (currently 95.14%), keeping in mind that DB's team is tilting the ice while the NYR has the ice completely tilted their way? Meanwhile, we're getting middle-of-the-pack goaltending and the third worst shooting % in the league. These are the indicators people look at when they're discussing trends.

Also it's damn hard to evaluate defensive prowess through possession stats, which is one of the real struggles--but CA is a good one, because it's shot suppression...though again, not all shots are created equal.

 

[kingsfan28]

I know the third line isn't producing much, but it's a complete misconception that they are shooting wide and missing the net - especially Lewis.

Lewis - .754


Lewis is tops among forwards, he hits the net better than anyone. In fact, the third line are 3 of the top 4 forward spots. They miss less than any other line on the team. Kopitar misses the net more than any other forward.
.

Nobody on this team has had more grade A scoring chances on this team and failed than Leiws.Yes he hits the net more that anyone, but the problem is it's not the back of it, more like the pad, chest or shoulder. You'd think the law of averages would play in, but it just doesn't.

 

[Fishhead]

Come on. I can understand having a good amount of points early on to fall back on later in the season, but please, don't burn yourself out.

I agree, but I really don't think we've seen the high gear yet. The team doesn't appear to be pushing it at all, they just aren't mailing it in.

 

[123slam]

Nobody on this team has had more grade A scoring chances on this team and failed than Leiws.Yes he hits the net more that anyone, but the problem is it's not the back of it, more like the pad, chest or shoulder. You'd think the law of averages would play in, but it just doesn't.

Scored huge goal on Niemi in the playoffs. That's all that really matters...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That IS true. Lewis is a playoff beast!

 

[Fishhead]

Nobody on this team has had more grade A scoring chances on this team and failed than Leiws.Yes he hits the net more that anyone, but the problem is it's not the back of it, more like the pad, chest or shoulder. You'd think the law of averages would play in, but it just doesn't.

We need a new stat called iLewis, which measures a players ability to shoot directly at the goalie.

 

[Reclamation Project]

SNOG - Shots Not On Goal

 

[Ron*]

http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

Good luck in your search

The Kings held an 11 point lead over Montreal in December 1980. Still have a ways to go to beat that...didn't look to see if we had a bigger lead than that...yet.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Nobody on this team has had more grade A scoring chances on this team and failed than Leiws.Yes he hits the net more that anyone, but the problem is it's not the back of it, more like the pad, chest or shoulder. You'd think the law of averages would play in, but it just doesn't.

This is so true. His career shooting percentage of 4.6, one of the lowest I've ever seen. However he is shooting at 3.3 this year, his lowest since 11-12.

 

[Butch 19]

The Kings held an 11 point lead over Montreal in December 1980. Still have a ways to go to beat that...didn't look to see if we had a bigger lead than that...yet.

great - make me feel older than I already do.

Since winning 2 Cups, I have often thought the sweetest revenge would be for the Kings to beat mont in the SCF. But I may (likely would) not be able to live with the stress of going thru a 7 gm series.

 

[Ron*]

The Kings had some great regular season teams in that era, just couldn't get over the hump in the playoffs...I remember the frustration of being placed in the same division as Montreal and all those Eastern teams but we really were on an island in those days.

I'm sure we logged the most miles travel wise than any other team in the league, and that had to take it's toll on the players.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

great - make me feel older than I already do.

Since winning 2 Cups, I have often thought the sweetest revenge would be for the Kings to beat mont in the SCF. But I may (likely would) not be able to live with the stress of going thru a 7 gm series.

Would love to see a SCF with MTL. Bring out McSorley to drop the puck in game 1 and put that curse to bed.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

We need a new stat called iLewis, which measures a players ability to shoot directly at the goalie.

Whether serious or joking, I consistently enjoy your posts.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

Wasn't calling you out BTE, not at all.

Just the fact that someone else continues to bring up the potential Martinez trade as if it was some kind of unthinkable thing and refuses to acknowledge the vastly different circumstances the team was in about 14 months ago.

It's a fact that one of Muzzin, Voynov or AMart was going to have to be moved off the books for cap reasons, I think most agree it was not going to be Muzzin so it was going to be either VV or AMart, but some just find it preposterous to think it could have been Martinez.

In the end the decision was made on it's own when VV decided to beat up his girl and Mike Richards brought illegal drugs over the border and the Kings are in a good spot and everyone lives happily ever after.

Yeah, wasn't trying to say you were calling me out but more pointing out that there are people who still feel that way. That to me makes little sense. You remove Martinez right now without an adequate replacement and Ehrhoff or McBain are on the 2nd pairing and a rookie is in the 6th spot. No bueno.

I'm personally stoked that Martinez is really growing into his role this season because I also believed that he may be the odd man out if salary needed to be moved. I personally have a tough time parting with a lot of the Kings' players that were on the Cup winning teams but with him in particular and his two series winning OT GWG are two of the biggest goals in the Kings history. The GWG in the SCF is my personal favorite goal. The reaction I had when he scored was similar to his and it was about as genuine a reaction you'll ever find. That's why I watch sports!

 

[KingsKnight]

great - make me feel older than I already do.

Since winning 2 Cups, I have often thought the sweetest revenge would be for the Kings to beat mont in the SCF. But I may (likely would) not be able to live with the stress of going thru a 7 gm series.

Same here. That's what I was secretly hoping for in 2013, on the 20th anniversary.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Would love to see a SCF with MTL. Bring out McSorley to drop the puck in game 1 and put that curse to bed.

We have 2 cups since 2012. I would say that the curse died peacefully in it's sleep

 

[Ron*]

We have 2 cups since 2012. I would say that the curse died peacefully in it's sleep

This.

Don't think about that idiot McSorley and his gaff AND that chicken**** move by Demers anymore.

 

[mrkolice]

...But, as an example of our 'luck' stats literally not being able to be much lower, Dustin Brown is a career 9.5% shooter; last season, he shot a career low 5.8, and this season he's an absolutely abysmal 2.4%. Now, I think some of that can be accounted for by his shot selection, but lots of it is simply dumb luck, and that goalies just aren't giving up softies vs. us. Can guys deteriorate as they get older? Certainly. But even Brown can't stay at 7% below his career average forever. We're doing well because of possession and IN SPITE of things like Brown's shooting percentage...

i've checked his dcorsi stats (via http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/) and noticed something: the difference in trends (for 2015/16) between dcorsi for and dcorsi against (= shot suppression, pondered with quality of competition, linemates, zone starts and other stuff). overall it's a team issue and it's not dramatic (yet), but regarding brown it's strange: he is having his best season in corsi for department + his worst in corsi against.

a counter-intuitive question: can we link his drop in production to his corsi against stats? at first it doesn't make sense, but it could mean the his opponents are deliberately playing a little more loose against him. i suspect that when dustin will start producing (and ending his bad luck charm), his corsi for stats will go down and his corsi against will go up, as the opposition will ajust.

 

[onlyalad]

We have 2 cups since 2012. I would say that the curse died peacefully in it's sleep

For the Kings yes
I am still a bitter old lad and hope the Habs never win a cup until they admit they cheated. So far no Canadian city has won. When we placed the curse on them we (sun belt city) didn't know Canadiens and Canadians were different