Seravalli: Lafreniere and Rangers working 8-year deal worth more than $8 million AAV

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not bad for a 50 point guy

And their fans complain about Igor getting $12m

They both deserve their money.

Those who complain about Igor are ungrateful, but Lafreniere has probably been our second or third best forward since the start of last year, including the playoffs. But he doesn’t get PP1 time because that unit works and is never changed. It deflates his point totals. Lafreniere had 57 last year and nearly all of it was even strength.

That series against the Panthers cost the Rangers an extra 3 million dollars a year lol. Sorry guys.

That was the best hockey of the stretch, but he’s been playing great since the start of last year. That wasn’t anything far above the other games.

 

[TGWL]

Only because of injuries, he was meant to start the year on the 3rd line until Chytil and then Kakko went down.

Saving the coaches from themselves

No, he started with Panarin from game 1. It was Panarin, Chytil, and Laf. Trocheck was moved around Game 10 or so to the 2nd line when Chytil was out of the lineup and they never looked back.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

No, he started with Panarin from game 1. It was Panarin, Chytil, and Laf. Trocheck was moved around Game 10 or so to the 2nd line when Chytil was out of the lineup and they never looked back.

Fake News.

 

[ViD]

They both deserve their money.

Those who complain about Igor are ungrateful, but Lafreniere has probably been our second or third best forward since the start of last year, including the playoffs. But he doesn’t get PP1 time because that unit works and is never changed. It deflates his point totals. Lafreniere had 57 last year and nearly all of it was even strength.


That was the best hockey of the stretch, but he’s been playing great since the start of last year. That wasn’t anything far above the other games.

How much did Laf play with Panarin ?

 

[TGWL]

Fake News.

So tell me what the lineup was for game 1 in Oct, 2023...

When you're done with that, tell me who scored the 1st goal of the season for us and who assisted on that goal?

 

[PainForShane]

They both deserve their money.

Those who complain about Igor are ungrateful, but Lafreniere has probably been our second or third best forward since the start of last year, including the playoffs. But he doesn’t get PP1 time because that unit works and is never changed. It deflates his point totals. Lafreniere had 57 last year and nearly all of it was even strength.


That was the best hockey of the stretch, but he’s been playing great since the start of last year. That wasn’t anything far above the other games.

Hey there -- I've seen you in other main board Ranger threads and I've been impressed by the way you post -- not only do you seem knowledgeable (and a good communicator) but I've also seen you intentionally go out of your way to be respectful which is hard to do sometimes given the average level of discourse that sometimes happens on these boards. Thank you for that.

All that said, you're a Rangers fan so I'm assuming you watch all or most of their games, if so I'm assuming you're familiar with Laf and his development over the years.

I'm curious about the following: Would you describe Laf as a true (or potential) power forward? From my side (ie not watching as many Rangers games), it seems to me like Laf's developed into a pretty decent 200 foot player who should be good for 35-40 goals most years while also throwing the body around and being hard to play against. These days I feel like this is a more unique skillset though of course this blend of skills was much more common 10 or 15 years ago. In present day you have players like the Tkachuk kids, Lawson Crouse, arguably Tom Wilson -- probably I'm forgetting some other players but either way it's inarguable that the list isn't very long.

Thanks in advance! Looking fwd to hearing your thoughts on this if / when you see this post

 

[biturbo19]

the kid is a late bloomer. good for him for all the flak that he caught.

this will put the rangers at all in. the cap is gonna tear them apart.

I'm not sure i'd consider an "exceptional status" and "1st overall NHL draft selection" a real "late bloomer".

I know what you mean, and it's taken him longer than you'd expect to find his scoring ability at the NHL level. But "late bloomer" doesn't feel like the right label for an ultra hyped top draft pick.


Anyway...this seems like a huge gamble for the Rangers. I'd want to hold off and see how this season is looking later into the year at least, before i put ink on paper to sign this sort of deal. It's hard to imagine he'll blow up to something that'll cost you more than $8M x 8 this year. But it seems more within the realm of possibility that last season was a bit of a blip with terrific chemistry on a line with a phenomenal offensive talent, and could slip back a bit, to be worth nowhere near $8M.

 

[boredmale]

Wouldn't it just be better to sign him to a 2/3 year bridge deal and if he proves he is worth 10M by the end of it so be it?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How much did Laf play with Panarin ?

He did, but are you really going to tell me that a 1OA is some unskilled bum and is being force fed points by another player? Seems hard to believe.

If it took Panarin to unlock Lafreniere’s best, there’s nothing wrong with that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hey there -- I've seen you in other main board Ranger threads and I've been impressed by the way you post -- not only do you seem knowledgeable (and a good communicator) but I've also seen you intentionally go out of your way to be respectful which is hard to do sometimes given the average level of discourse that sometimes happens on these boards. Thank you for that.

All that said, you're a Rangers fan so I'm assuming you watch all or most of their games, if so I'm assuming you're familiar with Laf and his development over the years.

I'm curious about the following: Would you describe Laf as a true (or potential) power forward? From my side (ie not watching as many Rangers games), it seems to me like Laf's developed into a pretty decent 200 foot player who should be good for 35-40 goals most years while also throwing the body around and being hard to play against. These days I feel like this is a more unique skillset though of course this blend of skills was much more common 10 or 15 years ago. In present day you have players like the Tkachuk kids, Lawson Crouse, arguably Tom Wilson -- probably I'm forgetting some other players but either way it's inarguable that the list isn't very long.

Thanks in advance! Looking fwd to hearing your thoughts on this if / when you see this post

Thank you for the kind words!

To answer your question, I wouldn’t call him a power forward. I think he’s a skilled forward who has some of those hard elements in his game.

He’s not Panarin or Hughes who are pretty much pure skill players, but isn’t a Tkachuk either who have that true throwback style. He’s somewhere in-between, probably closer to Tkachuk’s, but still towards the middle of both sets, if that makes sense.

 

[PainForShane]

Thank you for the kind words!

To answer your question, I wouldn’t call him a power forward. I think he’s a skilled forward who has some of those hard elements in his game.

He’s not Panarin or Hughes who are pretty much pure skill players, but isn’t a Tkachuk either who have that true throwback style. He’s somewhere in-between, probably closer to Tkachuk’s, but still towards the middle of both sets, if that makes sense.

Got it, thanks for the response.

Makes perfect sense. That said, I feel like if we're being honest, Matty TK isn't really a power forward (at least not to the same degree as his father or other power forwards of previous eras like Rick Tocchet etc), he's more of pest who can hold his own when needed, not unlike someone like Marchand. But, because we don't really have power forwards these days, Matty Tk is labeled as a power forward because every other offensive top six forward is shifty, has great edgework, great vision etc and the vast majority choose not to initiate physical contact.

Completely understand what you mean re: Laf. Thank you for the response!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Got it, thanks for the response.

Makes perfect sense. That said, I feel like if we're being honest, Matty TK isn't really a power forward (at least not to the same degree as his father or other power forwards of previous eras like Rick Tocchet etc), he's more of pest who can hold his own when needed, not unlike someone like Marchand. But, because we don't really have power forwards these days, Matty Tk is labeled as a power forward because every other offensive top six forward is shifty, has great edgework, great vision etc and the vast majority choose not to initiate physical contact.

Completely understand what you mean re: Laf. Thank you for the response!

I agree with that. There really aren't many left at this point, so the line has moved on the term "power forward" from what it might've been years back.

 

[HuGort]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1844551099740536928

Shouldn't they sign their goalie first?

 

[Kimota]

Feel like that's gonna come bite them in the ass.

 

[Leviathan]

Feel like that's gonna come bite them in the ass.

Not extending him for less, earlier, is probably what they will end up regretting. If they had done a 1 year extension last time they could have locked him up Jan 1st to something like 4x4 or something. But because they had to wait til July, after his performance in the playoffs, they are now in that tough spot trying to decide whether to give him the bag without seeing him really hit his upside and not knowing if he will (I think he will though).

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Heard he was a total bust.
There was a thread & everything.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Heard he was a total bust.
There was a thread & everything.

Yeah, so much so that he busted at being a bust. worst bust ever.

 

[waitin425]

Good for Laf. well deserved

 

[hockey20000]

good for him im happy people were calling him maybe a bust and now hes gonna get 8maav

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

A comparable might be Huberdeau. He signed a 6 year contract after signing a bridge deal. His contract had 4 UFA years. The cap hit was 5.9M, but if you adjust for cap inflation using his cap hit percentage of 7.87, that produces a number somewhere near 7M under the current cap or next year's projected 92.4M cap.

That wasn't 115 point Huberdeau. That as Huberdeau who was fourth on the team in scoring with 59 points.

So looking at a contract that buys up an extra 2 UFA years, and also taking into consideration the expectation that the cap is set for a large correction, 8x8 seems absolutely right for a top 6 producer whose pedigree suggests there is a chance they can reach another level.

A lot of these contracts are going to have similar discussion in threads. It reminds me of the last time we saw a big adjustment to the expectations around the salary cap and young top stars who used to get 6M moved up to 8M+ (go back and read the Draisaitl thread).

Now we are entering territory where those same stars are likely in the 10M+ range, and the tier of stars below them are moving up from 6M to 8M.

Both GMs and agents know the cap is going to shoot up, so there is an equilibrium being reached to balance locking a player in and cost controlling against a big rise, and players playing it safe to secure the bag without risking leaving too much on the table.

 

[TGWL]

Not extending him for less, earlier, is probably what they will end up regretting. If they had done a 1 year extension last time they could have locked him up Jan 1st to something like 4x4 or something. But because they had to wait til July, after his performance in the playoffs, they are now in that tough spot trying to decide whether to give him the bag without seeing him really hit his upside and not knowing if he will (I think he will though).

Very doubtful that deal would have come close to 4x4 with Laf accepting.

 

[Reality Czech]

$8 million sure doesn't buy what it used to. And by used to I mean a couple years ago.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Not bad for a 50 point guy

And their fans complain about Igor getting $12m

You're batting about 0 for 1,000 in your takes. He's probably the 3rd or 4th best forward on a team that won the Presidents' Trophy last year. He doesn't play on the top PP unit so his point totals are not where they could be. If his name were Alexei Lafrenierov you'd think he's a stud.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

From bust to PAID

Got to feel good for him. Took him a while but he’s looking like the star many of us expected


Kakko has been pretty terrible since he entered the league.

It was funny watching Rangers fans telling us he’s just “unlucky” for years

I mean, there were Laf defenders too and they ended up being right. There were times before Laf broke out that Kakko looked like the better player. I don't think it's some ridiculous homer take to think that a #2 overall who was a consensus #2 overall to think he'll be a good player. It hasn't worked out but I feel like your take is like "hahaha stupid homer Rangers fans". I think every fanbase would think the same given the circumstances. And sometimes it ends up being true.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I mean, there were Laf defenders too and they ended up being right. There were times before Laf broke out that Kakko looked like the better player. I don't think it's some ridiculous homer take to think that a #2 overall who was a consensus #2 overall to think he'll be a good player. It hasn't worked out but I feel like your take is like "hahaha stupid homer Rangers fans". I think every fanbase would think the same given the circumstances. And sometimes it ends up being true.

Draft position really means nothing when they reach the NHL.

After one season sure you can say he’s adjusting, but when he keeps letting down in pretty much every aspect, no the “he’s about to breakout”, “watch the games”, “advanced stats” etc start to just be blind homerism