KP lemme ask you something, I know prospects are a big thing for you, how likely in your experience is it that players really break out from the low confidence headspace. Byfield to me shows a loooot of low confidence and his shooting shows that. Do players who play this unconfident break out from that headspace more often than not?
I'm sorry if it sounds like a copout, but I don't feel comfortable answering this.
For one - I don't see Byfield as having a confidence issue the same way you do. Like I said, he doesn't slink away when challenged. He doesn't drop the gloves, either, but he jaws back. I think his shot needs improvement in his accuracy and technique, but I just disagree with your assessment of his confidence. Of course, I could be wrong. I just saw things differently than you did.
That said, confidence is absolutely essential to be a successful competitor. I honestly think that's what stopped Austin Wagner from hitting the next level. The reason why I feel that is because I read interviews with him where he was talking himself down and being overly self-critical.
But the reason why I can't answer is because I don't know WHEN the player starts having confidence issues. Is a player a perimeter player because he grew up getting away with it? Or is he just afraid of contact? Or is he nursing an injury? Yes, some players clearly play with more confidence and assertiveness, but without knowing the player, knowing when they lose confidence, and knowing when they get it back, there's no probability I could quantify.
We do have a timeline for one player though. Jack Campbell's was absolutely destroyed shortly after he was drafted by Dallas. Possibly due to the pressure of being a first-round pick. He put up Petersen-esque numbers in the OHL in his D+1, and basically just kept moving down until he hit the ECHL. Then he was traded to LA for Nick Ebert, a 7th-round pick. Dusty Imoo started working with him in 2016, 6 years after he was drafted, and Campbell suddenly posts a shutout in the NHL.
It's a singular example, and I wish I could find the article, but Campbell has credited Imoo for helping him get his head back in the game. Took him 6 years.
So, it can happen. I just don't know the players well enough at a psychological level to offer a quality answer, nor have I read a specific study addressing the issue.
There have been articles about bigger players needing 200 games to actually get their game going, which is why I'm adamant about getting him reps - but that's an entirely different conversation.