Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[King'sPawn]

So there are folks out there that view a collection of numbers and come to a conclusion that individial players are indicative of a team's win-loss record, and go so far as to believe that statistics will demonstrate that other players could or could not be replaced and not affect their conclusions?

If intelligent people believe this stuff we might as well shut down our educational system, we are totally ****ing ourselves.

We just aren't as intelligent as you apparently.

 

[Kurrilino]

What would y'all offer for Zadorov?

Kopitar + Doughty

 

[Kurrilino]

Basically Kopitar's collective individual metrics, from season to season, has consistently been in the upper echelon, where the team isn't expected to win many more games if Kopitar was replaced by someone else (and the quality of player replacing him, even at Kopitar's worst season, would have to be in the 88th percentile).

So we are saying that Kopitars best is not good enough?

 

[FSL KINGS]

Care to explain what this is supposed to indicate?

Also, hard to believe that this franchise hasn't been able to win a single series since Kopitar was 26.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Kopitar + Doughty

lol no cap.

 

[King'sPawn]

So we are saying that Kopitars best is not good enough?

Exactly. Thank you for breaking down metrics as well as you break down the rest of Kopitar's game.

 

[kings11]

Care to explain what this is supposed to indicate?

Also, hard to believe that this franchise hasn't been able to win a single series since Kopitar was 26.

Oh it’s very easy to believe, I mean, DL(towards the end) and RB both failed to maintain a competitive roster.
I would say the biggest issues are the following:
Failure to terminate Richards
Signing Gaborik to that LT contract
Failure to trade Muzzin, Amart, Carter before the expansion draft
Trading for Lucic
Letting JDub walk
Failing to replace Mitchell

For Blake and I’ll get heat for this..
Failure to move Iafallo at his highest value
Extending Cal
Trading 1st rd picks in consecutive drafts
Lack of a development plan
Failing to see that Todd is a builder not a finisher
Failure to obtain grit and toughness after getting bullied last PO and now this PO

 

[Sol]

I think Blake had a plan and now he doesn’t know what to do for the past couple seasons. I think the extreme short sightedness with the defensive situation and redundancy in players shows just that. The bad contract of Cal and I think poor drafting in Byfield shows that they went for the moon and ended up failing miserably.

 

[Statto]

plus minus is a great example of how screwball most advanced stats are. WAR is another one. I think it was churchill that said: "their are lies, damn lies, and statistics." For me the p value of statistical hockey studies is weighted tremendously toward the eye test

Stats are great when used correctly, the problem is they rarely are. +/- is a great stat (as I often say) but it’s never used correctly and is something I wish wasn’t even published because of it.

Stats and the eye test should in theory bring you to similar conclusions (assuming you understand the game/players) but if they don’t it doesn’t mean either is wrong, just that further analysis is needed.

 

[chris kontos]

Stats are great when used correctly, the problem is they rarely are. +/- is a great stat (as I often say) but it’s never used correctly and is something I wish wasn’t even published because of it.

Stats and the eye test should in theory bring you to similar conclusions (assuming you understand the game/players) but if they don’t it doesn’t mean either is wrong, just that further analysis is needed.

agreed.
i think both are useful but really either one used exclusively wont work. being an old bastard myself, i always defer to the eye test used over a large/long term sample. a team game played by emotional people in an emotional venue is ultimately impossible to predict totally accurately. fun to try though $$$

 

[Schrute farms]

For Blake and I’ll get heat for this..
Failure to move Iafallo at his highest value
Extending Cal
Trading 1st rd picks in consecutive drafts
Lack of a development plan
Failing to see that Todd is a builder not a finisher
Failure to obtain grit and toughness after getting bullied last PO and now this PO

Agree 100%. But really there is nothing there for you to get "heat" on for these takes regarding RB. You would have to be a blind, homer fan to disagree with any of these.

 

[YP44]

I am conflicted on if trading a first in this year's draft is forgivable or not. One one hand I think it could be if Gavrikov re-signs before July 1. On the other, this is supposed to be a very deep draft, and if Gavrikov walks than it looks very bad IMO.

I want a GM who is aggressive and not afraid to make moves. But need to be smart as well.

 

[Lt Dan]

Oh it’s very easy to believe, I mean, DL(towards the end) and RB both failed to maintain a competitive roster.
I would say the biggest issues are the following:
Failure to terminate Richards
Signing Gaborik to that LT contract
Failure to trade Muzzin, Amart, Carter before the expansion draft
Trading for Lucic
Letting JDub walk
Failing to replace Mitchell

For Blake and I’ll get heat for this..
Failure to move Iafallo at his highest value
Extending Cal
Trading 1st rd picks in consecutive drafts
Lack of a development plan
Failing to see that Todd is a builder not a finisher
Failure to obtain grit and toughness after getting bullied last PO and now this PO

The biggest problem was not replacing Voynov. Voynov's "departure" was the beginning of the end

 

[YP44]

The biggest problem was not replacing Voynov. Voynov's "departure" was the beginning of the end

was a hard thing to do when the league was holding LA's cap space hostage for most of the year.

 

[Lt Dan]

was a hard thing to do when the league was holding LA's cap space hostage for most of the year.

Indeed that was literally criminal on Bettman's part

 

[KINGS17]

Sure, but you're agreeing with me that his whole tenure is predicated on 'ifs'.

Hope is not a strategy.

"finishing somewhere in the standings" isn't a 'plan' in any real sense of the word either.

Adding a high-scoring winger when you have no goalies or LHDs in the system and are instead sitting on a million suddenly-depreciating assets is my evidence.

And again I say that as a guy who is appreciative of Blake being opportunistic about Fiala--but his sudden decisiveness there and complete lack of decisiveness/action elsewhere shows me someone who has no vision other than blackhole just enough to keep the bosses happy and pockets filled.

The whole "100 points" illusion is going to come crashing down at some point.

 

[Herby]

was a hard thing to do when the league was holding LA's cap space hostage for most of the year.

The Kings could have terminated the contract and had the space. If only Slava had done something truly heinous like smuggle prescription pills over the border rather than something minor like beating the crap out of his wife, the Kings would have been forced to act.

Sure, but you're agreeing with me that his whole tenure is predicated on 'ifs'.

Hope is not a strategy.

"finishing somewhere in the standings" isn't a 'plan' in any real sense of the word either.

Adding a high-scoring winger when you have no goalies or LHDs in the system and are instead sitting on a million suddenly-depreciating assets is my evidence.

And again I say that as a guy who is appreciative of Blake being opportunistic about Fiala--but his sudden decisiveness there and complete lack of decisiveness/action elsewhere shows me someone who has no vision other than blackhole just enough to keep the bosses happy and pockets filled.

The original point he made was true, as is yours.

If the Kings made the right picks in 2019 and 2020 the discussion is completely different, it's night and day. You have no concerns with the most important position (1C) on a hockey team for the next at least decade and you also have a championship caliber 2C for the same time frame. Even if they only hit on one of them it still puts the Kings in a different position in the current and the future. We can debate whether having Stutzle is enough to win the series or not in the present, but those huge concerns about who replaces Kopitar simply don't exist.

My issue with the Fiala trade and subsequent other decisions (specifically position changes) is how they just let Kaliyev's value fall off. A player who had 14 goals as a 20 year old playing mostly a 4th line role should have been put in a position to take a next step, but instead they traded an elite prospect for a winger, and then they moved two of the C prospects they drafted to play wing, and Kaliyev was buried. The same thing happened with Turcotte, so you draft a kid #5 overall and then the next two off-seasons you sign an UFA C to a six-year deal and draft a C #2 overall. I get it, the player had disappointed since being drafted, but after you blocked his path to the NHL, why not trade him? Trade him for a comparable goaltender, a LHD, someone with grit or any of the other holes the organization had? Heck, do what NYR did with Lias and trade him for a 2nd. You can add Bjornfot into this list as well, nothing wrong with souring on players, but why not cash out for some draft capital or to fill other organizational holes rather than having these guys rot in the AHL?

The whole "100 points" illusion is going to come crashing down at some point.

Point totals in the NHL this season, especially in the west were inflated. You had two teams in the division, and four in the conference actively trying to lose games. I can't believe people can't see this and still push the 104 points like it was some big accomplishment. It got them the same thing 99 points got them last year and the same thing 109 would have gotten them this season, starting on the road in the playoffs.

 

[YP44]

The Kings could have terminated the contract and had the space. If only Slava had done something truly heinous like smuggle prescription pills over the border rather than something minor like beating the crap out of his wife, the Kings would have been forced to act.

Fair comparison but without conviction could they realy? Who LA been hit was a cap penalty similar to Richards?

Why did San Jose not get a cap penalty like richards for Kane?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The original point he made was true, as is yours.

If the Kings made the right picks in 2019 and 2020 the discussion is completely different, it's night and day. You have no concerns with the most important position (1C) on a hockey team for the next at least decade and you also have a championship caliber 2C for the same time frame. Even if they only hit on one of them it still puts the Kings in a different position in the current and the future. We can debate whether having Stutzle is enough to win the series or not in the present, but those huge concerns about who replaces Kopitar simply don't exist.

My issue with the Fiala trade and subsequent other decisions (specifically position changes) is how they just let Kaliyev's value fall off. A player who had 14 goals as a 20 year old playing mostly a 4th line role should have been put in a position to take a next step, but instead they traded an elite prospect for a winger, and then they moved two of the C prospects they drafted to play wing, and Kaliyev was buried. The same thing happened with Turcotte, so you draft a kid #5 overall and then the next two off-seasons you sign an UFA C to a six-year deal and draft a C #2 overall. I get it, the player had disappointed since being drafted, but after you blocked his path to the NHL, why not trade him? Trade him for a comparable goaltender, a LHD, someone with grit or any of the other holes the organization had? Heck, do what NYR did with Lias and trade him for a 2nd. You can add Bjornfot into this list as well, nothing wrong with souring on players, but why not cash out for some draft capital or to fill other organizational holes rather than having these guys rot in the AHL?

As I said there, we are all agreeing.

I guess the way my point was different was that I'm saying it's not just the prospects, it's every part of the org. Not arguing with either of you guys, you're just expanding on one major symptom.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I am conflicted on if trading a first in this year's draft is forgivable or not. One one hand I think it could be if Gavrikov re-signs before July 1. On the other, this is supposed to be a very deep draft, and if Gavrikov walks than it looks very bad IMO.

I want a GM who is aggressive and not afraid to make moves. But need to be smart as well.

Multiple reports out there saying 2023 is not as deep as it once thought, the top 5 picks are deep for sure, but then the drops are there, so picking where LA would be 20-21, isn't as....good as it would have been in 2003 etc or the other top drafts you can think of etc

 

[YP44]

Multiple reports out there saying 2023 is not as deep as it once thought, the top 5 picks are deep for sure, but then the drops are there, so picking where LA would be 20-21, isn't as....good as it would have been in 2003 etc or the other top drafts you can think of etc

2003 was such a historic draft

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

2003 was such a historic draft

Yep, from what I have read, this draft is good, not nearly as good, and some were hyping it towards that draft.....and 2013 maybe? not exactly sure, but they are saying while it's good at the top, it's not as deep as the others

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

I think the Kings would have beat the Oilers, with a 100% healthy Fiala, Vilardi and Anderson (Mikey was not himself, kind of like how Matt Roy was not himself, after Fiala concussed him)
ALSO, if the PK could have kept the Oliers at their reg season 32% PP (5 out of 15 pp goals) and not giving up 9 out of 15!! 4 less goals, possibly tilts the series to the Kings. Woulda coulda shoulda. But Fiala was never 100%....and I doubt that Gabe or Mikey were. Injuries happen...but was 3 key players.

Cozens? Stutzle? That's beyond woulda coulda shoulda.

The thing is, who had the Lightning losing rd 1 to the Blue Jackets (back in whatever yr) or the Bruins losing rd 1? The playoffs are a strange and different animal and requires a 20 player team effort, some breaks, good special teams, strong goaltending and an obscure player or 2 elevating their game. I hate the saying "we (whoever your team is) are at least 2 key players and 2-3 years away from contending". And yet, that very team that has no business winning a cup, that has holes, is 2 or 3 key players away from contending...can lift Lord Stanley NOW.
While the loaded teams that lose 15 games in the entire season can lose 4 out of 7, in the playoffs!
It's a fact. Some obscure players elevate. Some stars shtt the pot. Every playoff year.

I'm not hating Blake...nor am I behind all he's done. I still think it would have been possible to beat Oilers and VGK with a fully healthy team. POSSIBLE (not probable) Not saying what the Kings have or will have (come September) is going to be better, but I'm somewhat optimistic if they can sign Gavrikov and make some hockey deals. I think QB, Gabe and a few others (hopefully Arty) take bigger steps next year.

This.

If the Kings are a bit healthier and have even just a remotely competent penalty kill, they beat the Oilers and I think many of us would've been pretty satisfied even if they had proceeded to lose in the 2nd round.

Obviously that didn't happen but its still a valid point in terms of - Look, this team was/is very good. There were other, even better teams.. 'true contenders' if you will, that also lost in the 1st round. Do those teams/orgs suck because of that??? Of course not, sh*t happens.. Sometimes great teams lose.

NHL playoffs are super unpredictable. It happens every year. There's always a couple REALLY good teams that lose in the 1st or 2nd round and 1-2 seemingly mediocre teams that go on long playoff runs.

At the end of the day, it's pretty simple - you try to build as good of a team as possible and try to give yourself a shot at going on a long cup run. Now I'm not 100% sold on Rob Blake as a GM either.... But he's built a pretty solid team in all fairness.

You can point out organizational holes, sure. But he's also definitely made moves to try to address those holes. LHD and G were two areas of need... So he made a tough, ballsy move to get rid of Quick and bring in a solid goalie and solid top 4 LHD, giving the Kings a much better shot this playoffs. Two seasons ago the Kings were solid but struggled a bit offensively. So he brings in a dynamic play driving offensive winger in Fiala and now the Kings seem to have a great offense and as an added bonus are legitimately fun to watch. He also went out and traded for a top goalie prospect in Portillo to hopefully give us another option in net in the future.

Also, how many of those organizational holes would exist / will exist if a few prospects pan out???
The answer is.... Not many, so maybe we should give it a little time?

If Brandt Clarke hits....... All of the sudden, there's your dynamic #1 d man for the next 10+ years.

If Byfield is just a late bloomer and ends up hitting this coming season or next... Oh, what do you know?? Now all of the sudden the Kings DO have a 1C for the future.

If a guy like Bjornfot ends up panning out, there's a potential top 4 LHD right there. If Portillo hits, boom - goalie of the future.

Look all I'm saying is he's done SOME decent things (while yes, made some mistakes / questionable decisions as well) and in my opinion, should be GM for at least another season as a result. If at the end of next year prospects still aren't looking great, the team still has massive organizational holes, etc etc... Then sure, I'll jump on board the 'fire rob blake' train.

 

[YP44]

Yep, from what I have read, this draft is good, not nearly as good, and some were hyping it towards that draft.....and 2013 maybe? not exactly sure, but they are saying while it's good at the top, it's not as deep as the others

I have heard that too, but also that later picks re very comparable to later picks in other drafts. So i guess future will tell.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

The Knights PK was just as porous as our own, and they still managed to advance past the Oilers.

This revisionist history that the Kings were right there with the Oilers and one good bounce could’ve changed the whole series is ridiculous. The Kings were hanging on for dear life for the majority of those games, and only won two games on the backs of overtime special teams.