Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[Sol]

@Basilisk

Eh don’t take it personally. Axl is just kinda upset that everyone found out he makes alternate accounts on HF to agree to his own posts lol.

Is LGK even still active ?

 

[Lt Dan]

ChadrawnView attachment 713040

I met Jamie Storr once and he actually knew Chad.
He was a little afraid when he told me some.l stories

@Basilisk

Eh don’t take it personally. Axl is just kinda upset that everyone found out he makes alternate accounts on HF to agree to his own posts lol.

Is LGK even still active ?

Temporarily down. A technical issue

 

[Statto]

Blake's approach when he got here was "Let's wait and see" and in the in the mean time start retaining picks/prospects again.

You can argue that was the incorrect approach, but it certainly wasn't the 'go all in, we're a contender!' approach people are trying to imply it was.

At Blake's introductory presser, he was just giving the PC answer.

Up until this year, I've been mostly okay with Blake.

That’s my general feeling. He needs to really get creative and be aggressive this summer if he wants to turn it around. Better that than being too passive and running out of time to meaningfully affect things. I’m more likely to forgive a bold move that goes badly than slowly watching it go to hell.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Blake's plan from Day 1 has been no plan at all. It's been wait & see, reactionary, deal with things as they come, etc. He's Mr. No Plan. So how can you have an opinion on his Plan when there is no plan to take fault with and/or praise.

All i ask of the team's that i root for is that they have a plan (both ST & LT). Whether that plan fails or succeeds ultimately does not matter (besides my enjoyment of such) when it comes to evaluating them. Have a Plan is all i ask. The worst is a GM/FO that has no plan at all and is basically a boat aimlessly float with the tides in the ocean.

I used to think Blake was just very cautious, and I thought it was refreshing that he didn't subscribe to sunk cost fallacy--he was quick to act on his own mistakes.

Turns out he's just flying by the seat of his pants and staking all his hope on aging stars while neglecting gigantic f***ing organizational holes until it's too late and he has to pay the premium for his ever-stacking mistakes--the premium being more assets that are also now devalued due to just sitting them on benches at various levels for too long.

He's just Dave Taylor 2.0 to me right this moment. Just praying we don't see the second coming of Oleg Kvasha by doing some dumb shit like Spence for Haula.

 

[johnjm22]

What's done is done. You can't change the past.

I thought the Kings should have kept tanking for a few more years. I think we exited the "rebuild" too early.

But it doesn't matter now. Only question is what the Kings should do moving forward.

My contrarian take: I wouldn't be opposed to saying f*** it and go all in for next year. Then when it all crashes down 2 years from now, clean house and start a proper rebuild.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

What would y'all offer for Zadorov?

 

[johnjm22]

What would y'all offer for Zadorov?

While he’d make a decent 3rd pairing LHD for us, he’s a bit overpaid for that role.

We don't have the cap to afford him and the 2nd pairing LHD we really need.

I don't think Calgary would do an inter-division trade with us.

 

[tomd]

I used to think Blake was just very cautious, and I thought it was refreshing that he didn't subscribe to sunk cost fallacy--he was quick to act on his own mistakes.

Turns out he's just flying by the seat of his pants and staking all his hope on aging stars while neglecting gigantic f***ing organizational holes until it's too late and he has to pay the premium for his ever-stacking mistakes--the premium being more assets that are also now devalued due to just sitting them on benches at various levels for too long.

He's just Dave Taylor 2.0 to me right this moment. Just praying we don't see the second coming of Oleg Kvasha by doing some dumb shit like Spence for Haula.

My take is a little different. I think if Turcotte and Byfield had both hit similar to guys like Cozens and Stutzle did then the team is in a very different place right now. Very different.

 

[King'sPawn]

My take is a little different. I think if Turcotte and Byfield had both hit similar to guys like Cozens and Stutzle did then the team is in a very different place right now. Very different.

Well, yeah. But they haven't yet. Which is why there are concerns.

 

[tomd]

Well, yeah. But they haven't yet. Which is why there are concerns.

I understand but from a planning perspective Blake did the right things. He did an on-the-fly rebuild/retool and got two top 5 picks then started adding pieces. Nothing wrong with that given that Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick were still around. I'm just challenging the notion that he has been without a plan for the past 2-3 years. I think he did but having those two top 5 picks not contributing really has hurt.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

My take is a little different. I think if Turcotte and Byfield had both hit similar to guys like Cozens and Stutzle did then the team is in a very different place right now. Very different.

Sure, but you're agreeing with me that his whole tenure is predicated on 'ifs'.

Hope is not a strategy.

"finishing somewhere in the standings" isn't a 'plan' in any real sense of the word either.

Adding a high-scoring winger when you have no goalies or LHDs in the system and are instead sitting on a million suddenly-depreciating assets is my evidence.

And again I say that as a guy who is appreciative of Blake being opportunistic about Fiala--but his sudden decisiveness there and complete lack of decisiveness/action elsewhere shows me someone who has no vision other than blackhole just enough to keep the bosses happy and pockets filled.

 

[tomd]

Sure, but you're agreeing with me that his whole tenure is predicated on 'ifs'.

Hope is not a strategy.

"finishing somewhere in the standings" isn't a 'plan' in any real sense of the word either.

Adding a high-scoring winger when you have no goalies or LHDs in the system and are instead sitting on a million suddenly-depreciating assets is my evidence.

And again I say that as a guy who is appreciative of Blake being opportunistic about Fiala--but his sudden decisiveness there and complete lack of decisiveness/action elsewhere shows me someone who has no vision other than blackhole just enough to keep the bosses happy and pockets filled.

Not disputing your points...they are valid as far as it goes. But when drafting top 5, a team shouldn't be planning for their failure. Having them bust/underperform screwed everything up IMO. Could Cozen-like and Stutzle-like players have lifted the Kings past the Oilers? Fair argument to make that they could have.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Sure, but you're agreeing with me that his whole tenure is predicated on 'ifs'.

Hope is not a strategy.

"finishing somewhere in the standings" isn't a 'plan' in any real sense of the word either.

Adding a high-scoring winger when you have no goalies or LHDs in the system and are instead sitting on a million suddenly-depreciating assets is my evidence.

And again I say that as a guy who is appreciative of Blake being opportunistic about Fiala--but his sudden decisiveness there and complete lack of decisiveness/action elsewhere shows me someone who has no vision other than blackhole just enough to keep the bosses happy and pockets filled.

Knowing you won't see this...but ENTIRETY OF SPORTS...is predicated on IFS......

IF this player we drafted XXXX OA, pans out, then we can do this.....if they don't...then we might have to do this....

IF this player we TRADED FOR does this....then we can do that....IF he doesn't, then we have to do this...

IF this player becomes available, can we get him.....if not...what is our next target....

I mean f***, planning everything...is predicated on IFs.......

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not disputing your points...they are valid as far as it goes. But when drafting top 5, a team shouldn't be planning for their failure. Having them bust/underperform screwed everything up IMO. Could Cozen-like and Stutzle-like players have lifted the Kings past the Oilers? Fair argument to make that they could have.

it's surely possible. I'd disagree because I don't think raw offense was the real concern, but that would just be splitting hairs, I have no issue conceding that point

But again that goes back to the initial 'hope as a strategy' and if we're a contender as Blake's words and actions take us, that's rough

 

[Reaper45]

That’s my general feeling. He needs to really get creative and be aggressive this summer if he wants to turn it around. Better that than being too passive and running out of time to meaningfully affect things. I’m more likely to forgive a bold move that goes badly than slowly watching it go to hell.

He’s absolutely going to have to get creative on the trade front. The way teams are up against the cap he’s going to have to make hockey trades because I just don’t see the cap clearing moves as possibilities. If he’s not aggressive at the draft I think next season will be leaning towards a failure almost immediately.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Not disputing your points...they are valid as far as it goes. But when drafting top 5, a team shouldn't be planning for their failure. Having them bust/underperform screwed everything up IMO. Could Cozen-like and Stutzle-like players have lifted the Kings past the Oilers? Fair argument to make that they could have.

I think the Kings would have beat the Oilers, with a 100% healthy Fiala, Vilardi and Anderson (Mikey was not himself, kind of like how Matt Roy was not himself, after Fiala concussed him)
ALSO, if the PK could have kept the Oliers at their reg season 32% PP (5 out of 15 pp goals) and not giving up 9 out of 15!! 4 less goals, possibly tilts the series to the Kings. Woulda coulda shoulda. But Fiala was never 100%....and I doubt that Gabe or Mikey were. Injuries happen...but was 3 key players.

Cozens? Stutzle? That's beyond woulda coulda shoulda.

The thing is, who had the Lightning losing rd 1 to the Blue Jackets (back in whatever yr) or the Bruins losing rd 1? The playoffs are a strange and different animal and requires a 20 player team effort, some breaks, good special teams, strong goaltending and an obscure player or 2 elevating their game. I hate the saying "we (whoever your team is) are at least 2 key players and 2-3 years away from contending". And yet, that very team that has no business winning a cup, that has holes, is 2 or 3 key players away from contending...can lift Lord Stanley NOW.
While the loaded teams that lose 15 games in the entire season can lose 4 out of 7, in the playoffs!
It's a fact. Some obscure players elevate. Some stars shtt the pot. Every playoff year.

I'm not hating Blake...nor am I behind all he's done. I still think it would have been possible to beat Oilers and VGK with a fully healthy team. POSSIBLE (not probable) Not saying what the Kings have or will have (come September) is going to be better, but I'm somewhat optimistic if they can sign Gavrikov and make some hockey deals. I think QB, Gabe and a few others (hopefully Arty) take bigger steps next year.

 

[King'sPawn]

Cool graphic. Represents his career well:

 

[bland]

Cool graphic. Represents his career well:

Care to explain what this is supposed to indicate?

Also, hard to believe that this franchise hasn't been able to win a single series since Kopitar was 26.

 

[Lt Dan]

Care to explain what this is supposed to indicate?

Also, hard to believe that this franchise hasn't been able to win a single series since Kopitar was 26.

It's the exchange rate between Stanley nickels and Schrute bucks!

Correct @Schrute farms beets ?

Serious answer

WAR – Hockey Graphs

Posts about WAR written by EvolvingWild, stringhama, Matt Cane, and Alex Novet

hockey-graphs.com

 

[King'sPawn]

Care to explain what this is supposed to indicate?

Also, hard to believe that this franchise hasn't been able to win a single series since Kopitar was 26.

There are a few slightly different interpretations. But the long and short of it is the percentile of a player's overall individual performance based on offense, defense, special teams, and discipline (penalties).

Basically Kopitar's collective individual metrics, from season to season, has consistently been in the upper echelon, where the team isn't expected to win many more games if Kopitar was replaced by someone else (and the quality of player replacing him, even at Kopitar's worst season, would have to be in the 88th percentile).

I know quite a few know WAR better than me, so I apologize if I'm misstating the facts.

 

[bland]

There are a few slightly different interpretations. But the long and short of it is the percentile of a player's overall individual performance based on offense, defense, special teams, and discipline (penalties).

Basically Kopitar's collective individual metrics, from season to season, has consistently been in the upper echelon, where the team isn't expected to win many more games if Kopitar was replaced by someone else (and the quality of player replacing him, even at Kopitar's worst season, would have to be in the 88th percentile).

I know quite a few know WAR better than me, so I apologize if I'm misstating the facts.

Compared to what though? Other players on the team, a median average of other first line centers? All players in the league?

Honestly, this isn't meant to counter any argument in favor of Anze, it just looks like a graph with no explanation of its purpose.

 

[King'sPawn]

Compared to what though? Other players on the team, a median average of other first line centers? All players in the league?

Honestly, this isn't meant to counter any argument in favor of Anze, it just looks like a graph with no explanation of its purpose.

WAR compares players across the league.

I am sorry for just dropping the chart without context. Hopefully my explanation helped a bit.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

BLuc didn’t lie when they stood up in public with Beckerman and claim the team was a couple of tweaks away from being a champion again. They 100% believed and meant what they said. Which is great.

But anyone not on the payroll was right to be skeptical based on zero collective track record of success and less than zero time spent on scheduling candidates for interviews.

To think that Blake speaks in coded language to give political cover to his pathetic record of actions is truly drinking the deepest purple shade of koolaid.

Nah, you got it all wrong. You just need to apply some degree of “social intelligence” to correctly interpret what Blake is saying.

 

[bland]

WAR compares players across the league.

I am sorry for just dropping the chart without context. Hopefully my explanation helped a bit.

So there are folks out there that view a collection of numbers and come to a conclusion that individial players are indicative of a team's win-loss record, and go so far as to believe that statistics will demonstrate that other players could or could not be replaced and not affect their conclusions?

If intelligent people believe this stuff we might as well shut down our educational system, we are totally ****ing ourselves.

 

[chris kontos]

plus minus is a great example of how screwball most advanced stats are. WAR is another one. I think it was churchill that said: "their are lies, damn lies, and statistics." For me the p value of statistical hockey studies is weighted tremendously toward the eye test