Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[Sol]

Lafreniere came into a situation where he was playing for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. He had to learn how to grind and play defensively to get any ice time. Stutzle came in and was allowed to be a -40. Lafreniere and Byfield were developed very differently than the others and it didnt pay off in the short term. There is still time to see the players they become though.

I think there’s a lot of valid criticism in the development “plan” the kings employ. But I also think the Kings and others for sure over estimated Byfield. I think way too many people got caught up in his size that they forgot to take a closer look at his skillset like Nick Richie.

Stutzle was always the much more talented player but there must have been a weird reason why he wasn’t the undisputed number 2. Probably because he’s European because by no stretch of the imagination when you watched those two plays do I think you can say that on draft day Byfield was the better player.


Even now honestly, if byfield doesn’t come to this season stronger/bigger then I will seriously wonder what the f*** are they thinking.

 

[tbrown33]

One thing I will agree with on bland regarding analytics is there's definitely an impact that's not been properly measured or quantified. Where we differ is he feels it's immeasurable/incalculable, and I just feel that the right data/formulae hasn't been captured to reflect it.

That's why I'm still on the fence with all models. Not that they're bad or flawed. But rather, they are limited by the information we have available.

Energy players will have some impacts measured, but so far there has not been one that calculates for momentum - either stopping the opponent or pushing your own team to success. And the models haven't accounted for that.

For sure, which is why people should understand exactly what is being calculated in these NHLe prospect models. The fact of the matter is they don't use advanced analytics/stats at all. It's 100% just "when x player scores x amount of points at x level, it roughly translates into x amount of NHL points." It then takes that production development curve and uses historical data to tell you "this is how many of these guys pan out as stars or NHL players."

Has nothing to do with any of the "fancy" stats we see today.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think there’s a lot of valid criticism in the development “plan” the kings employ. But I also think the Kings and others for sure over estimated Byfield. I think way too many people got caught up in his size that they forgot to take a closer look at his skillset like Nick Richie.

Stutzle was always the much more talented player but there must have been a weird reason why he wasn’t the undisputed number 2. Probably because he’s European because by no stretch of the imagination when you watched those two plays do I think you can say that on draft day Byfield was the better player.


Even now honestly, if byfield doesn’t come to this season stronger/bigger then I will seriously wonder what the f*** are they thinking.

It's not just Byfield, though. Look at the f***ery all the top picks go through.

-Clarke--best metrics on the team, then they decided to move him to the left (to bail themselves out of a problem of their own creation), he stuttered, they shipped him to the AHL TO NOT PLAY for a month, then to juniors. The f*** are we doing here?
-Byfield, and Herby covered Turcotte;
-Bjornfot--played an entire NHL season in the big league then...just doesn't anymore.
-Kaliyev--leading PP scorer, gotta stay on the 4th line and grind his way up I guess.
-Fagemo--bides his time, scores in limited minutes, back to the minors forever.
-Spence--barely allowed a cup of coffee, have to give those minutes to Walker, Durzi...oh wait, those guys are no longer with the team? huh. Thank goodness we also had Mark Alt, Christian Wolanin....
-Kupari--he might be nothing but what is he supposed to do without a defined role, like why draft a toolsy top sixer and play him as such in the AHL then give him halftime in limited minutes on the 4th line
-Vilardi--may be the only one I'm willing to give them rope on due to the injury but it's looking more and more like they couldn't deal with his fire
-JAD/Grundstrom--sure let's just kick you around because it's more important for us to have MacEwen and Frk and Luff and Wagner in those spots than for you to develop and oh wait those guys are no longer with the team? huh.
-Clague--ended up being a whole lot of nothing either but does anyone remember how much this guy was getting dicked around? I was pissed and vocal about that at the time and ended up being right about it being a harbinger of how the org handles kids unfortunately.

Look how long it took them to figure out what to do with Kempe, for instance.

Like no, they're not all going to pan out. And once in a while, it's okay to have a weird development path. But it's ALL of them going thru weird shit and roster depth hazing, and ALL of them are struggling. It's not 'luck' or coincidence when that's the case. THAT IS ONE ENTIRE DECADE OF 1ST AND 2ND ROUND PICKS accounted for. If it were just luck, where's the 'good luck' version of a guy defying expectations and shitty deployment and succeeding anyway? It doesn't exist because any time a guy starts to break thru, they get buried. Bad development, bad deployment is why we are here.

 

[tbrown33]

It's not just Byfield, though. Look at the f***ery all the top picks go through.

-Clarke--best metrics on the team, then they decided to move him to the left, he stuttered, they shipped him to the AHL TO NOT PLAY for a month, then to juniors. The f*** are we doing here?
-Byfield, and Herby covered Turcotte;
-Bjornfot--played an entire NHL season in the big league then...just doesn't anymore.
-Kaliyev--leading PP scorer, gotta stay on the 4th line and grind his way up I guess.
-Fagemo--bides his time, scores in limited minutes, back to the minors forever.
-Spence--barely allowed a cup of coffee, have to give those minutes to Walker, Durzi...oh wait, those guys are no longer with the team? huh. Thank goodness we also had Mark Alt, Christian Wolanin....
-Kupari--he might be nothing but what is he supposed to do without a defined role, like why draft a toolsy top sixer and play him as such in the AHL then give him halftime in limited minutes on the 4th line
-Vilardi--may be the only one I'm willing to give them rope on due to the injury but it's looking more and more like they couldn't deal with his fire
-JAD/Grundstrom--sure let's just kick you around because it's more important for us to have MacEwen and Frk and Luff and Wagner in those spots than for you to develop and oh wait those guys are no longer with the team? huh.
-Clague--ended up being a whole lot of nothing either but does anyone remember how much this guy was getting dicked around? I was pissed and vocal about that at the time and ended up being right about it being a harbinger of how the org handles kids unfortunately.

Look how long it took them to figure out what to do with Kempe, for instance.

Like no, they're not all going to pan out. And once in a while, it's okay to have a weird development path. But it's ALL of them going thru weird shit and roster depth hazing, and ALL of them are struggling. It's not 'luck' or coincidence when that's the case. THAT IS ONE ENTIRE DECADE OF 1ST AND 2ND ROUND PICKS accounted for.

Must be rough for them watching other guys around the league get a shot early then line up an 8mill AAV on their next deal.

If I was Turcotte watching all my best friends get paid, I'd be extremely motivated to come out and f*** shit up. Otherwise he won't be able to afford hanging out with his buddies.

 

[FSL KINGS]

1	1	NY Rangers	Alexis Lafreniere	L	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]	216	47	44	91	78	2022-23
1	2	Los Angeles	Quinton Byfield	C	Sudbury Wolves [OHL]	99	8	25	33	52	2022-23
1	3	Ottawa	Tim Stutzle	L	Mannheim Eagles [DEL]	210	73	104	177	105	2022-23
1	4	Detroit	Lucas Raymond	L	Frolunda HC [SweHL]	156	40	62	102	40	2022-23
1	5	Ottawa	Jake Sanderson	D	U.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL]	77	4	28	32	12	2022-23

The top 5 draft picks of 2020. The top 2 have struggled the most, while the bottom 3 have performed the best.

I'm sure if Ottawa had the top 2 picks, they would have selected both Stutzle and Sanderson.

& Byfield leading the pack with playoff PPG at 0.5. LaFern second at 0.33.
Bam!

 

[Bandit]

THAT IS ONE ENTIRE DECADE OF 1ST AND 2ND ROUND PICKS accounted for.

One decade yes, but what about SECOND decade????

 

[Choralone]

An article was posted in the Athletic today, Which NHL team won the 2023 offseason? A look at the moves that did (and didn’t) happen by Erik Duhatschek. He spends a fair chunk of space on the Kings:

"If results are the barometer, the team that won the 2022 offseason turned out to be the Vegas Golden Knights, the eventual Stanley Cup champions.

What did Vegas do? It signed Adin Hill as the backup to the backup goaltender. It was a move that barely registered in transactions. Hill went into camp No. 3 on the depth chart behind Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit — or No. 4, if you wind the clock far enough back to consider Robin Lehner an option.

But when Vegas circled the ice with the Stanley Cup, that was Hill celebrating with the famous trophy.

Was there a similar, minor move in the summer of 2023 that might turn out to be the equivalent of the Hill signing? Maybe Cam Talbot joining Los Angeles to play for the Kings on a bargain-basement $1 million contract will prove to be that.

Talbot had a mediocre, injury-filled season playing for the Senators last season. In L.A., he’ll be reunited with coach Todd McLellan. The two, working together in Edmonton in 2017, were excellent. Talbot led the NHL in wins with 42 that season. Lots of water under the bridge since then for both men, but the feeling that they could resurrect that magic was one of the reasons the Kings felt they could give up four assets to the Jets to acquire Dubois — and then sign him for big bucks.

In theory, if the Kings goaltending proves wanting, they can do what they did at the 2023 deadline and go out and get another rental. Who knows what Hellebuyck’s status will be by then? Or how motivated the Anaheim Ducks might be to move on from John Gibson? It’s hard to imagine Gibson landing with a cross-town rival, but the days of divisional rivals being off limits in the trading game are long gone."

.....

Beyond Karlsson, the greatest scrutiny any newcomer will face may well be directed at the polarizing Dubois, whose addition back in June gives the Kings an enviable top three down the middle: Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and now Dubois. McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. How Dubois integrates into the Kings’ lineup — and how consistent will his play be on a night-in and night-out basis — is a situation that will require a full season’s worth of monitoring and scrutiny."

 

[chris kontos]

Non high school graduate
Multiple times concussed ex jock

My team is cresting at the crest of the wave.
Surfs up!
Cue the ventures song wipeout

 

[chris kontos]

An article was posted in the Athletic today, Which NHL team won the 2023 offseason? A look at the moves that did (and didn’t) happen by Erik Duhatschek. He spends a fair chunk of space on the Kings:

"If results are the barometer, the team that won the 2022 offseason turned out to be the Vegas Golden Knights, the eventual Stanley Cup champions.

What did Vegas do? It signed Adin Hill as the backup to the backup goaltender. It was a move that barely registered in transactions. Hill went into camp No. 3 on the depth chart behind Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit — or No. 4, if you wind the clock far enough back to consider Robin Lehner an option.

But when Vegas circled the ice with the Stanley Cup, that was Hill celebrating with the famous trophy.

Was there a similar, minor move in the summer of 2023 that might turn out to be the equivalent of the Hill signing? Maybe Cam Talbot joining Los Angeles to play for the Kings on a bargain-basement $1 million contract will prove to be that.

Talbot had a mediocre, injury-filled season playing for the Senators last season. In L.A., he’ll be reunited with coach Todd McLellan. The two, working together in Edmonton in 2017, were excellent. Talbot led the NHL in wins with 42 that season. Lots of water under the bridge since then for both men, but the feeling that they could resurrect that magic was one of the reasons the Kings felt they could give up four assets to the Jets to acquire Dubois — and then sign him for big bucks.

In theory, if the Kings goaltending proves wanting, they can do what they did at the 2023 deadline and go out and get another rental. Who knows what Hellebuyck’s status will be by then? Or how motivated the Anaheim Ducks might be to move on from John Gibson? It’s hard to imagine Gibson landing with a cross-town rival, but the days of divisional rivals being off limits in the trading game are long gone."

.....

Beyond Karlsson, the greatest scrutiny any newcomer will face may well be directed at the polarizing Dubois, whose addition back in June gives the Kings an enviable top three down the middle: Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and now Dubois. McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. How Dubois integrates into the Kings’ lineup — and how consistent will his play be on a night-in and night-out basis — is a situation that will require a full season’s worth of monitoring and scrutiny."

The athletic is funnier than hell

 

[tny760]

"McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. "

now THAT is f***in funny

Must be rough for them watching other guys around the league get a shot early then line up an 8mill AAV on their next deal.

If I was Turcotte watching all my best friends get paid, I'd be extremely motivated to come out and f*** shit up. Otherwise he won't be able to afford hanging out with his buddies.

i mean, he kinda does right? it's just that his terminal boneitis takes over and he's right back to the IR

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

"Beyond Karlsson, the greatest scrutiny any newcomer will face may well be directed at the polarizing Dubois, whose addition back in June gives the Kings an enviable top three down the middle: Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and now Dubois. McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. How Dubois integrates into the Kings’ lineup — and how consistent will his play be on a night-in and night-out basis — is a situation that will require a full season’s worth of monitoring and scrutiny.""



LOL

TM will have Kopitar Danault and Dubois and still find a way to have Arvidsson taking a faceoff on his weak side in the defensive zone vs. McDavid/Draisaitl.

 

[johnjm22]

I don't understand why you keep deliberately dodging the development question when there are very legitimate thoughts. @Herby outlined it well above, but to my previous point you're basically then saying it's all a crapshoot and nothing matters.

I've already responded to @Herby 's criticisms about development a few times before. Nothing has really changed in his view or in mine.

There may be some legitimate critique to be made about having QB/AT in the AHL. But I highly doubt it makes much difference in the long run. If playing in the AHL is going to derail you, then you were never going to make it in the first place.

The main reason Turcotte and QB aren't having much success yet is because of themselves. Turcotte was injury prone in junior, in college, in the AHL. If he were playing for the Senators he wouldn't suddenly become un injury prone. He wouldn't become more talented. Byfield is clearly underdeveloped for the NHL. I highly doubt his production would be much different playing for Ottawa right now.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I've already responded to @Herby 's criticisms about development a few times before. Nothing has really changed in his view or in mine.

There may be some legitimate critique to be made about having QB/AT in the AHL. But I highly doubt it makes much difference in the long run. If playing in the AHL is going to derail you, then you were never going to make it in the first place.

The main reason Turcotte and QB aren't having much success yet is because of themselves. Turcotte was injury prone in junior, in college, in the AHL. If he were playing for the Senators he wouldn't suddenly become un injury prone. He wouldn't become more talented. Byfield is clearly underdeveloped for the NHL. I highly doubt his production would be much different playing for Ottawa right now.

I'm willing to give SOME grace on Byfield/Turcotte because of the weird covid years. If it were in light of just that and themselves, sure

However it's literally a decade of 1st and 2nd round picks suffering the same fate. They can't ALL just be 'bad luck' and rationalized away. Especially when quite a few of us saw this coming and forewarned that we're not sure this org will know what to do with blue chip talent.

 

[johnjm22]

Overall, Kopitar literally had the toughest matchups in the entire NHL last year for a forward.

It's not all on the coach.

You need PLD to play the best hockey of his career (I think he will) and opposing teams to focus on his line.

 

[tbrown33]

"McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. "

now THAT is f***in funny


i mean, he kinda does right? it's just that his terminal boneitis takes over and he's right back to the IR

LOL true. Someone mentioned that he has put on some weight this offseason. Hopefully that makes the difference.

 

[johnjm22]

I'm willing to give SOME grace on Byfield/Turcotte because of the weird covid years. If it were in light of just that and themselves, sure

However it's literally a decade of 1st and 2nd round picks suffering the same fate. They can't ALL just be 'bad luck' and rationalized away. Especially when quite a few of us saw this coming and forewarned that we're not sure this org will know what to do with blue chip talent.

It's not about covid years, it's just about these players not being very good. Playing for another organization wouldn't change that.

Also, Kings haven't had that many high picks until recently. You used to use this point when arguing against Herby, but he did some jedi mind trick on you and now you're on his side.

 

[Sol]

Overall, Kopitar literally had the toughest matchups in the entire NHL last year for a forward.

It's not all on the coach.

You need PLD to play the best hockey of his career (I think he will) and opposing teams to focus on his line.

Why do you always dodge rebuttals? You seem more interested in being right than responding to responses that disprove your claims. There’s nothing wrong with owning up to being incorrect since it’s absolutely a fact that the Kings have had many picks that have been messed with by the Kings “Development” team. As much as I rag on Byfield it’s still very likely he could have been a lot further. Even Clarke. Kaliyev as well.

“Kopitar had the toughest match up”. Are we talking about the same player who was gassed most of the time and would get double shifted? A lot of it does fall on the coaching staff. The same Kopitar who was so gassed that Todd actually tried to keep Kopitar away from McDavid? Come on now John. Being honest is better than being willfully ignorant.

 

[johnjm22]

Why do you always dodge rebuttals? You seem more interested in being right than responding to responses that disprove your claims. There’s nothing wrong with owning up to being incorrect since it’s absolutely a fact that the Kings have had many picks that have been messed with by the Kings “Development” team. As much as I rag on Byfield it’s still very likely he could have been a lot further. Even Clarke. Kaliyev as well.

Just want to point out that when everyone was praising the Kings "goaltender development system" I was probably the earliest and most prominent detractor of that narrative. Been arguing against it for years.

I'm not sure what you mean by dodging rebuttals. I often see both sides of arguments so there's not much for me to rebuke.

It's about extremism really. I don't disagree with a lot of the criticisms around here that are levied at the organization, I just disagree with how extreme and exaggerated those criticisms are. I think people ignore the full context of situations.

And since everybody is polarized, if I make a statement defending Todd, or the King's drafting/development, it's assumed on one "side". But I'm not. I have my complaints as well. I just try and be more realistic about it, and I think there's a lot more luck involved in this whole thing than people realize.

 

[johnjm22]

“Kopitar had the toughest match up”. Are we talking about the same player who was gassed most of the time and would get double shifted? A lot of it does fall on the coaching staff. The same Kopitar who was so gassed that Todd actually tried to keep Kopitar away from McDavid? Come on now John. Being honest is better than being willfully ignorant.

See. This is an example of what I'm talking about.

I basically agree. But because I said "It's not all on the coach" you just assume I'm not critical of Tmac regarding Kopitar's usage. Fact is, I AM critical of his usage, I'm just pointing out it's not ALL on the coaching staff.

It's funny because I feel like I've been complaining about the Kings' player usage philosophy long before it was cool.

Way back when the narrative was "Kopitar needs a scoring winger" I was saying he actually needed a center to take some of his duties.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's not about covid years, it's just about these players not being very good. Playing for another organization wouldn't change that.

Also, Kings haven't had that many high picks until recently. You used to use this point when arguing against Herby, but he did some jedi mind trick on you and now you're on his side.

The jedi mind trick was an entire decade of the Kings doing weird shit with their first and second round picks. I went thru all of them above.

Paraphrasing Herby, maybe you can call it just bad luck or even bad drafting if they do a more 'normal' development program and just whiff on everyone, but it's hard to call it that when literally every player has an unconventional development path and dogshit deployment until they're 25.

Overall, Kopitar literally had the toughest matchups in the entire NHL last year for a forward.

It's not all on the coach.

what

how do you reconcile this if it's not on the coach

Did kopitar jump the boards himself night after night and pull the other Cs or

 

[johnjm22]

what

how do you reconcile this if it's not on the coach

Did kopitar jump the boards himself night after night and pull the other Cs or

I said it's not ALL on the coach. Which is a fact.

As previously stated, I've been critical of Kopitar's usage/deployment for years.

We've talked about it many times before:

GDT: - 2021-22 season game 13 LA Kings vs Montreal Canadiens @4:00pm 11/9/21

Anze's last 5 games: 24:18, 21:56, 22:29, 21:09, 23:54. For the last 5 games, that's more minutes than any forward in the NHL. AKA more minutes than many #1 dmen and the small handful of forwards getting more icetime (names like Kane, Ovechkin, McDavid) for the season aren't doing anything...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I said it's not ALL on the coach. Which is a fact.

As previously stated, I've been critical of Kopitar's usage/deployment for years.

We've talked about it many times before:

GDT: - 2021-22 season game 13 LA Kings vs Montreal Canadiens @4:00pm 11/9/21

Anze's last 5 games: 24:18, 21:56, 22:29, 21:09, 23:54. For the last 5 games, that's more minutes than any forward in the NHL. AKA more minutes than many #1 dmen and the small handful of forwards getting more icetime (names like Kane, Ovechkin, McDavid) for the season aren't doing anything...

forums.hfboards.com

allow me to rephrase

who is it on if NOT the coach?

 

[kingskring]

An article was posted in the Athletic today, Which NHL team won the 2023 offseason? A look at the moves that did (and didn’t) happen by Erik Duhatschek. He spends a fair chunk of space on the Kings:

"If results are the barometer, the team that won the 2022 offseason turned out to be the Vegas Golden Knights, the eventual Stanley Cup champions.

What did Vegas do? It signed Adin Hill as the backup to the backup goaltender. It was a move that barely registered in transactions. Hill went into camp No. 3 on the depth chart behind Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit — or No. 4, if you wind the clock far enough back to consider Robin Lehner an option.

But when Vegas circled the ice with the Stanley Cup, that was Hill celebrating with the famous trophy.

Was there a similar, minor move in the summer of 2023 that might turn out to be the equivalent of the Hill signing? Maybe Cam Talbot joining Los Angeles to play for the Kings on a bargain-basement $1 million contract will prove to be that.

Talbot had a mediocre, injury-filled season playing for the Senators last season. In L.A., he’ll be reunited with coach Todd McLellan. The two, working together in Edmonton in 2017, were excellent. Talbot led the NHL in wins with 42 that season. Lots of water under the bridge since then for both men, but the feeling that they could resurrect that magic was one of the reasons the Kings felt they could give up four assets to the Jets to acquire Dubois — and then sign him for big bucks.

In theory, if the Kings goaltending proves wanting, they can do what they did at the 2023 deadline and go out and get another rental. Who knows what Hellebuyck’s status will be by then? Or how motivated the Anaheim Ducks might be to move on from John Gibson? It’s hard to imagine Gibson landing with a cross-town rival, but the days of divisional rivals being off limits in the trading game are long gone."

.....

Beyond Karlsson, the greatest scrutiny any newcomer will face may well be directed at the polarizing Dubois, whose addition back in June gives the Kings an enviable top three down the middle: Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and now Dubois. McLellan won’t need to pursue matchups. He’ll leave that nightmare up to opposing coaches. How Dubois integrates into the Kings’ lineup — and how consistent will his play be on a night-in and night-out basis — is a situation that will require a full season’s worth of monitoring and scrutiny."

these "WHO WON THE OFFSEASON articles" for any sport are as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop...

Somone should ask the Mets, or Padres, or Texas how being the "OFFSEASON WINNERS" turned out

 

[DoktorJeep]

Brown, Kopitar, Quick, Doughty.

Yanetti drafted one of those guys. And that pick was really the GM’s call.

Outside of Doughty, he has zero super stars drafted. His biggest stars are Toffoli and Kempe. The rest are hit and miss.

He’s been around for almost 20 years. I think he’s the longest tenured executive. At least on the hockey ops side, maybe not the business.

The last couple of years, he’s been on a ton of podcasts. Certainly more media face time than BLuc put together.

If the head scout is middle of the road, maybe the development staff is immaterial.

 

[King'sPawn]

Just want to point out that when everyone was praising the Kings "goaltender development system" I was probably the earliest and most prominent detractor of that narrative. Been arguing against it for years.

Just want to point out that you've still never said which teams are better, when asked.

And you ignored when the Kings actually were putting up good goaltenders, and how Jack Campbell pointed out how Dusty Imoo basically resuscitated his life after Dallas mishandled him and turned him into a goaltender.

It's very similar to you handwaving a majority of draft success to "luck."

Just because the goaltending started going downhill doesn't mean you were right. There have been changes over the years.