Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[kings11]

Anze Kopitar's two-way game isn't slipping because he was +2 in April?

Is that really the hill you're dying on here?

I've defended the guy more than just about anyone here but we all saw what we all saw.

Let me give you this quarterly line combination breakdown from last year and tell me what you think..
Q1
Kopitar-Brown-Ardvisson
Kopitar-Kempe-Brown
Kopitar-Brown-Andersson
Q2
Kopitar-Kempe-Brown
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Kempe-Ardvisson
Q3
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Iafallo-Fagemo
Kopitar-Iafallo-Brown
Q4
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Kempe-Athanasiou
Kopitar-Kempe-Kaliyev

Tell me what center wouldn’t have looked bad playing with one(1) healthy player all season.. Brown looked like dog shit and that’ll be addition by subtraction. Iafallo was injured for who knows how long and he never meshed with AA and especially Arvy

Anze Kopitar - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Find out Anze Kopitar's latest linemates, game logs, advanced stats, player cards, news and analysis from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

 

[KINGS17]

I apologize guys, I guess I was really drunk, I was talking about Babylon 5 not Battlestar Galactica.

May the Lords of Kobol forgive you.

 

[Sol]

Let me give you this quarterly line combination breakdown from last year and tell me what you think..
Q1
Kopitar-Brown-Ardvisson
Kopitar-Kempe-Brown
Kopitar-Brown-Andersson
Q2
Kopitar-Kempe-Brown
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Kempe-Ardvisson
Q3
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Iafallo-Fagemo
Kopitar-Iafallo-Brown
Q4
Kopitar-Kempe-Iafallo
Kopitar-Kempe-Athanasiou
Kopitar-Kempe-Kaliyev

Tell me what center wouldn’t have looked bad playing with one(1) healthy player all season.. Brown looked like dog shit and that’ll be addition by subtraction. Iafallo was injured for who knows how long and he never meshed with AA and especially Arvy

Anze Kopitar - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Find out Anze Kopitar's latest linemates, game logs, advanced stats, player cards, news and analysis from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

Kopitar looked bad by himself. I don’t know how you can watch Kopitar and say wow this player looks good.

I don’t think points = being good. Maybe he is near his career average but that wasn’t an average looking Kopitar. I’m sure all that ice time was a factor though naturally for his age. I’m sure he will be much more refreshed if they start cycling him off the top line and have Danault/Byfield/Kopitar move around on it.

I’m sure a lot of people don’t like that but if you’re looking at the future of the team, Kopitars name is not on it for much longer.

 

[kings11]

Kopitar looked bad by himself. I don’t know how you can watch Kopitar and say wow this player looks good.

I don’t think points = being good. Maybe he is near his career average but that wasn’t an average looking Kopitar. I’m sure all that ice time was a factor though naturally for his age. I’m sure he will be much more refreshed if they start cycling him off the top line and have Danault/Byfield/Kopitar move around on it.

I’m sure a lot of people don’t like that but if you’re looking at the future of the team, Kopitars name is not on it for much longer.

I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you missed the point.. He did look bad and on top of being plowed and planted into the dirt by TM with excessive PT he was saddled with an absolute anchor in DB for most of the season.. you won’t produce anything net positive when one of your flanks is a revolving door. Add to that the amount of energy a 34YO then and 35YO Kopi now had to extend to try and make up the ground and you get the gist of his struggles.
He’ll bounce back with a nice number of points and overall production because of the players that’ll flank him in Kempe and Fiala. His assist totals alone could potentially be career highs.

Brown - tail end of a great career turned into an anchor
Iafallo - injured for a large part of the season and was pretty ineffective
Arvidsson - he never meshed with
Andersson - not sure what that was
Fagemo - was just a cup of coffee

Last thing, it’s funny you mention that points don’t always equal being good because that’s one of the biggest gripes people have on here when they try to explain a players importance and value..

 

[Sol]

I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you missed the point.. He did look bad and on top of being plowed and planted into the dirt by TM with excessive PT he was saddled with an absolute anchor in DB for most of the season.. you won’t produce anything net positive when one of your flanks is a revolving door. Add to that the amount of energy a 34YO then and 35YO Kopi now had to extend to try and make up the ground and you get the gist of his struggles.
He’ll bounce back with a nice number of points and overall production because of the players that’ll flank him in Kempe and Fiala. His assist totals alone could potentially be career highs.

Brown - tail end of a great career turned into an anchor
Iafallo - injured for a large part of the season and was pretty ineffective
Arvidsson - he never meshed with
Andersson - not sure what that was
Fagemo - was just a cup of coffee

Last thing, it’s funny you mention that points don’t always equal being good because that’s one of the biggest gripes people have on here when they try to explain a players importance and value..

I think with Kopitar and points it doesn’t mean as much when you consider just how much ice time he gets vs everyone else so I don’t think points is a valuable argument for Kopitar because he’s pretty much getting all the ice time and PP time.

Also, yeah you’re right brown sucks I get it. But the best part of the top line was easily Kempe. No one else looked like a first liner

 

[kings11]

I think with Kopitar and points it doesn’t mean as much when you consider just how much ice time he gets vs everyone else so I don’t think points is a valuable argument for Kopitar because he’s pretty much getting all the ice time and PP time.

Also, yeah you’re right brown sucks I get it. But the best part of the top line was easily Kempe. No one else looked like a first liner

Yup, I think that’ll change though, Fiala is a really hard player to play against and will complement Kempe’s style.. the key to the season will likely fall on how well Byfield and Kaliyev gel, if they start scoring… we’re going to be a problem!

 

[johnjm22]

A lot of Kopitar's points were coincidental assists.

He rarely if ever generates a scoring chance at even strength, and he's too tired to be all that effective defensively.

It's not a knock on the player. He's just too old relative to his usage.

The 1st thing Todd should do is remove him from the PK. I understand if it's late in the game, and you're holding a 1 goal lead on the PK and you need to win the FO, but otherwise Danault should be PK#1, and Lizotte should be PK#2.

Find ways to reduce his minutes, and you'll see a much more effective player.

It's difficult because he's by far the teams' best FO guy, and we don't have a 3rd line center to put some minutes on.

This is why so much of this teams effectiveness hinges on one of Byfield/Kupari/Turcotte/JAD or whoever else solidifying a center spot.

 

[BringTheReign]

If Arvidsson isn't ready to go for the start of the year, I'd love to see some version of this:

Kempe - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Moore - Danault - Fagemo
Iafallo - Byfield - Fiala
Vilardi - Lizotte - Grundstrom
Lemieux

Each of the top 3 lines have at least one high-level puck transporter for zone exits/entries, and the C-RW pairings just make sense to me for some reason in particular. Kupari could for sure win any of Vilardi, Grundstrom, or Fagemo's spots, but I just feel those 3 players offer more "uniqueness" in their skillsets than Kupari does.

Hell, what I'd really want to see but know won't happen much this year is:

Kempe - Byfield - Fiala
Moore - Danault - Fagemo
Iafallo - Kopitar - Kaliyev

 

[Herby]

The problem with last year was they had no choice, since the #1 goal was to make the playoffs and playing AK and PD a ton was the only path. I know some push against this, but the numbers don't really back it up that the team would have been better with a more balanced approach.

There was just no chance they could have decreased the usage of AK and given more icetime to QB & Lizotte and still made the playoffs.

The Kings were not comfortably into a playoff spot until about Game 78 and didn't clinch until Game 80. Ultimately the Kings ended up making the playoffs by 5 points, and they would have lost the tiebreaker so a 5 point difference knocks you out.

The Kings were

18-8 in 1 goal games in regulation
21 other times they were able to get to OT resulting in a 9-12 record and 30 points.

I believe the Kings played the most one-goal games in the NHL.

How much do these numbers change if you are giving more icetime to Brown/QB/AA or the Champagne Line? I think over a full season it changes enough where the Kings don't make the playoffs, those lines were just that bad, no other way to put it. I don't really think anyone who looks deeper into the numbers can say otherwise.

If you go 17-9 (still amazing) and only get to OT 18 times instead of 21 you miss the playoffs, that is how thin the margin was. Increasing the icetime of players like Brown, Byfield and Vilardi playing at a replacement level probably gets you to that and below it.

I am guessing things do change this season, QB is now at 48 NHL games (about where he should have been entering last season) and entering his 2nd NHL season he should be counted on to at worst least tread water (with upside for more), something he simply wasn't able to do last year.

The Kings can decrease Kopitar and PD's usage this season and still achieve the goal of making the playoffs, that wasn't the case last year.

 

[johnjm22]

The problem with last year was they had no choice, since the #1 goal was to make the playoffs and playing AK and PD a ton was the only path. I know some push against this, but the numbers don't really back it up that the team would have been better with a more balanced approach.

There was just no chance they could have decreased the usage of AK and given more icetime to QB & Lizotte and still made the playoffs.

The Kings were not comfortably into a playoff spot until about Game 78 and didn't clinch until Game 80. Ultimately the Kings ended up making the playoffs by 5 points, and they would have lost the tiebreaker so a 5 point difference knocks you out.

The Kings were

18-8 in 1 goal games in regulation
21 other times they were able to get to OT resulting in a 9-12 record and 30 points.

I believe the Kings played the most one-goal games in the NHL.

How much do these numbers change if you are giving more icetime to Brown/QB/AA or the Champagne Line? I think over a full season it changes enough where the Kings don't make the playoffs, those lines were just that bad, no other way to put it. I don't really think anyone who looks deeper into the numbers can say otherwise.

I am guessing things do change this season, QB is now at 48 NHL games (about where he should have been entering last season) and entering his 2nd NHL season he should be counted on to at worst least tread water, something he simply wasn't able to do last year.

The Kings can decrease Kopitar and PD's usage this season and still achieve the goal of making the playoffs, that wasn't the case last year.

You might be right, but I thought they could have at least removed most of Kopitar's PK duties last year.

It's not like having him on the PK was working all that well (76.7%). And Lizotte was showing himself to be a very good PKer.

PK minutes can be very draining.

 

[tbrown33]

You might be right, but I thought they could have at least removed most of Kopitar's PK duties last year.

It's not like having him on the PK was working all that well (76.7%). And Lizotte was showing himself to be a very good PKer.

PK minutes can be very draining.

Iafallo and Kopitar opening up the pk was basically a guaranteed goal against last year.

 

[kingsfan28]

You don't want to go crazy and defend career years, especially when they're so different from a lengthy and established norm, but there are very few special goals there. I don't know, 96-97% of those goals are from like 5 feet of the net.

Some lucky bounces here and there, sure, but as we like to say, he was in a position to be able to take advantage of that. He wasn't off to the side flipping pucks from the blueline. He was the ultimate garbageman.

You can say maybe that line won't have the same chemistry, if they remain a line. Put Danault with different guys, maybe he doesn't play the same way, or get the same chances. Maybe Moore has his own career year, and is really just a 30pt guy.

Danault getting 27 last year has to be a surprise, because of that otherwise lengthy track record of not getting anywhere close to 27. Marchand has been more productive since getting close to 30 years old than he had been before. Granted, he was also putting up a lot of points before that, but not of the 80, 90, 100pt variety.

Not saying Danault is going to be a 70pt guy for the next few years. He could easily go 13g/40pts. Assuming he remains the same player though, was there anything notably unsustainable about his 21-22 season? Other than the outlier numbers on paper, was he physically doing things that aren't repeatable by a player of his skill level? All he did was attack the net. He didn't even get PP points to boost his numbers. His production was basically all 5v5.

Of all the questions and concerns on the Kings roster, as of right now, Danault isn't even on the list for me.

You could easily argue that in MTL, he was never used the way he is in LA. That talent has always been there, he just was never in the same position he is here to use it. Its like the Wayne Simmonds situation, he was never used in LA the way he was in Philly. He became a damn good forward there, and that's how I see Danault. I expect him to have another solid season.

 

[kings11]

A lot of Kopitar's points were coincidental assists.

He rarely if ever generates a scoring chance at even strength, and he's too tired to be all that effective defensively.

It's not a knock on the player. He's just too old relative to his usage.

The 1st thing Todd should do is remove him from the PK. I understand if it's late in the game, and you're holding a 1 goal lead on the PK and you need to win the FO, but otherwise Danault should be PK#1, and Lizotte should be PK#2.

Find ways to reduce his minutes, and you'll see a much more effective player.

It's difficult because he's by far the teams' best FO guy, and we don't have a 3rd line center to put some minutes on.

This is why so much of this teams effectiveness hinges on one of Byfield/Kupari/Turcotte/JAD or whoever else solidifying a center spot.

With Fiala and Kempe as Kopitar’s flankers, TMAC is going to run poor Kopi into retirement.. Kopi should be playing 18min pg at most with zero PP/PK.. those 2-3 min should be given to QB and the 3rd line

 

[Cianide]

You don't want to go crazy and defend career years, especially when they're so different from a lengthy and established norm, but there are very few special goals there. I don't know, 96-97% of those goals are from like 5 feet of the net.

Some lucky bounces here and there, sure, but as we like to say, he was in a position to be able to take advantage of that. He wasn't off to the side flipping pucks from the blueline. He was the ultimate garbageman.

You can say maybe that line won't have the same chemistry, if they remain a line. Put Danault with different guys, maybe he doesn't play the same way, or get the same chances. Maybe Moore has his own career year, and is really just a 30pt guy.

Danault getting 27 last year has to be a surprise, because of that otherwise lengthy track record of not getting anywhere close to 27. Marchand has been more productive since getting close to 30 years old than he had been before. Granted, he was also putting up a lot of points before that, but not of the 80, 90, 100pt variety.

Not saying Danault is going to be a 70pt guy for the next few years. He could easily go 13g/40pts. Assuming he remains the same player though, was there anything notably unsustainable about his 21-22 season? Other than the outlier numbers on paper, was he physically doing things that aren't repeatable by a player of his skill level? All he did was attack the net. He didn't even get PP points to boost his numbers. His production was basically all 5v5.

Of all the questions and concerns on the Kings roster, as of right now, Danault isn't even on the list for me.

A good player has a nose for the net.

 

[johnjm22]

Iafallo and Kopitar opening up the pk was basically a guaranteed goal against last year.

Meanwhile Lizotte had some epic PK shifts last year. He has the kind of "buzz" you want from a PKer. Lots of energy.

The only thing good about having Kopitar on the PK is that he'll usually win the FO, other than that he doesn't really bring much.

Liz isn't a bad FO man himself though. Him and Danault should be are main PKing centers.

 

[Cianide]

What do you think are the organization's plans with Turcotte? He should've made the team by now, instead he's just wasting away in Ontario. What do you think the Kings will do with him?

-Patty in Pittsburgh

 

[kingsfan28]

What do you think are the organization's plans with Turcotte? He should've made the team by now, instead he's just wasting away in Ontario. What do you think the Kings will do with him?

-Patty in Pittsburgh

Injuries have held him back since he turn pro. 2 concussions last year in the AHL really set him back again.

 

[KingsFan7824]

What do you think are the organization's plans with Turcotte? He should've made the team by now, instead he's just wasting away in Ontario. What do you think the Kings will do with him?

-Patty in Pittsburgh

He has to win a spot, without many, if any, open, and most of his competition will be other young guys in the same situation.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

The problem with last year was they had no choice, since the #1 goal was to make the playoffs

I know you are super smart and put tons of effort and thought into your posts unlike me....but you are beyond delusional if you don't think that EVERY organization's goal...EVERY year...is to make the playoffs.

No, I don't have any fancy stats to back it up.

 

[unicornpig]

Otteninger signing for a million less than Petersen......Blake got bent over

 

[Schmooley]

I know you are super smart and put tons of effort and thought into your posts unlike me....but you are beyond delusional if you don't think that EVERY organization's goal...EVERY year...is to make the playoffs.

No, I don't have any fancy stats to back it up.

This is false. Chicago is not trying to make the playoffs this year. Senators werent for a long time. Anaheim hasnt been the last couple years. San Jose isnt trying to this year. Arizona is not trying to.
There is such thing as rebuilding. There is such thing as tanking. There is such thing as sucking for a couple years to build a better future. It does come with risks and is not a sure thing though.

 

[YP44]

I know you are super smart and put tons of effort and thought into your posts unlike me....but you are beyond delusional if you don't think that EVERY organization's goal...EVERY year...is to make the playoffs.

No, I don't have any fancy stats to back it up.

I don't think Chicago or Montreal are going for the playoffs this year. There are season where teams obviously tank, or where teams at least no they will be bad and embrace the rebuild. Remember when sabers fans cheered a loss or something like that?

LA before drafting Drew comes to mind too.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Otteninger signing for a million less than Petersen......Blake got bent over

Oettinger wasn't a pending UFA, and he didn't have much leverage either coming off of his ELC, so completely different set of circumstances that can't really be compared.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

This is false. Chicago is not trying to make the playoffs this year. Senators werent for a long time. Anaheim hasnt been the last couple years. San Jose isnt trying to this year. Arizona is not trying to.
There is such thing as rebuilding. There is such thing as tanking. There is such thing as sucking for a couple years to build a better future. It does come with risks and is not a sure thing though.

But every time you ice your team, you are looking to win the game. What's the purpose of winning?

The Kings have already went through the 'rebuild'....whether the internet experts believe it was done in the 'right' way makes zero difference. At the end of the day, goal is to win games which hopefully equates to a playoff spot. Some teams, like the Kings, are looking to add talent to the team without giving up key prospects they've acquired during the rebuild and then slowly integrating them into full time players. They are looking to do ALL of this while, yes, as playoffs being the goal.

No team is 'tanking'...that would require the players to buy into a concept of losing...that just doesn't happen.

 

[Cook24]

Peterson contract was really bad