Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[lumbergh]

Its not an immediate decline that is the concern, its that the lack of situatuonal minutes and experience for Byfield, or another young offensive-minded center, that will most defintely result in a negative gap when Kopitar's production does drop off steeply.

The priority should not be to win now. 60 points for your #1 center is simply not good enough, especially when that center is playing over 1/3rd of every game and a minute twenty of every power play - and extra-especially when the vaunted defensive work absolutely declined last year.

You want the Kings to win again, you invest heavily in 2 or 3 seasons down the road, you don't overload the lineup with 7-8 secondary offensive players at the expense of developing potential first line forwards.

The years that the Kings won the Stanley Cup their #1 center scored 76 and 70 points. Is 70 points simply not good enough? Last season that same #1 center scored 67 points. When do you think Kopitar's production will drop off steeply? The number show no signs. I'm making the case that Kopitar is Mr. Consistency.

I do want the Kings to win again. They won 44 games and made the playoffs. I was pretty satisfied with last season. Expectations are up this season, though.

 

[King'sPawn]

Regression is a real thing and it's already baked into the Kings season point total line by the models the books use, that is why it is down despite adding Fiala for nothing off of the roster last year and the return of Doughty for (hopefully a full season)

With Kopitar it is age, the people who come up with these lines know that an age 35 season can see great fall-off for any player, especially one with the mileage of Kopitar. Really, any season after age 33 can see a big fall-off for a player.

They look at stuff like this

Ryan Getzlaf
Age 33 - 56GP, 11G, 50A, 61 Pts

He never sniffed point per game again over the next 4 seasons, there was no 70 point decline. Getzlaf went from an 88 point pace to a 55 point pace over one season.

Jeff Carter
Age 33 - 27GP, 13G, 9A, 22 Pts (39G, 67 Point Pace)
Age 34 - 76GP, 13G, 20A, 33 Pts

Carter had been a consistent 60+ point producer until he suddenly wasn't.

If anything Kopitar is living on borrowed time. And as others mentioned, the defensive metrics already began to slip a bit last year.

There is certainly the chance that Kopitar pulls a Bergeron and has two more years, not saying that isn't one of the possible outcomes but he is certainly a prime candidate for age driven regression.

With Danault it is more cut and dry and why he is on mine (and basically everyones regression list). Last year Danault had a career high in shots, shooting % and obviously goals. And these weren't moderate career highs, he blew everything out of the water in comparison to his previous career totals.

If Danault were to generate the same 194 shots on goal (2.45 per game) he had last year (which I think is very unlikely), and shoot at his previous career average of 9.4% he would produce 18.2 goals.

If Danault were to generate the the same 1.66 shots per game (136 over a full 82) he has averaged since his age 24 season but still maintained the career high 13.9% shooting he had last year he would score 18.9 goals this season.

If Danault were to return to his career normals in both areas and shoot 9.4% on 136 shots he would score 12.7 goals.

The Kings system does funnel the puck to the net more than most teams in the NHL, so it is likely that he does exceed his Montreal shooting numbers again, but 194 shots is very unlikely. If he were to put up 160 shots for example.

Career shooting % before last year on 160 shots = 15 goals
Last year shooting % on 160 shots = 22.2 goals
Previous year shooting % on 160 shots = 10.8 goals

It's just hard to come up with a model that finds 27 goals again for Danault, and really anything close to that.

Plus it is very unlikely Danault plays 18:08 a game next season, if he does it means QB looks just as awful as he did the year before and obviously none of us expect that to be the case.

It is just very likely that Danault had your classic career year. For a guy like Kempe who was 25 last year you can more fairly call that a potential breakout year, but breakouts in age 28/29 seasons are just much less common.

I have Danault at 15-20 goals this season.

This is why drafting/development is important, too. On top of players who can contribute now, you need players with whom you are certain will grow, by virtue of their young age, who you expect to get better.

Kempe may get better, but in his mid-20s, studies show it doesn't improve significantly. Danault has a lower likelihood of improving, by virtue of being an age where "peak" is met.

The prospects need to improve much more, sooner, rather than later. This isn't saying they suck. This is saying that burying potential franchise players on the thid line without opportunity to generate offense with gifted scorers is a bad idea, whether you care about winning now or in the future.

 

[Schmooley]

That ship sailed last year, man. We can say we disagree with it but that is the direction they went and it can't be undone.

Whether it is your belief that Luc and Blake weren't patient enough and wanted an instant contender or semi-contender

Or my belief that they came to the realization that some of their potential building blocks were just not going to develop into those types of players (specifically Vilardi, Turcotte & JAD).

Them adding Arvidsson, Danault, Fiala and rumored to be interested in JC was just the turning a page to something different.

Or another reason was Doughty, Kopitar, Brown, and Quick approached Blake and said they dont want to be a bottom feeder anymore and they need some more good veterans on the team. These players didnt want a rebuild and Blake did right by them and not a load of prospects. Whether or not it works we will get to watch unfold but I dont think they are a contender at this moment. But still a good solid team.

 

[King'sPawn]

Kopitar:
October to February: -5
March: -3
April: +2

If by "entire back end of the season" you meant "except the last month of the season", okay.

And norris-caliber defenseman Joe Corvo was leading the team in +/- one year.

It's not a good metric for measuring two-way play. Especially in isolation relative to the rest of the team.

The Kings were out of the playoffs by December, and climbed their way back up.

 

[Herby]

Or another reason was Doughty, Kopitar, Brown, and Quick approached Blake and said they dont want to be a bottom feeder anymore and they need some more good veterans on the team. These players didnt want a rebuild and Blake did right by them and not a load of prospects. Whether or not it works we will get to watch unfold but I dont think they are a contender at this moment. But still a good solid team.

This could have happened to, although it's an awful way to run a business, literally the inmates running the asylum. Blake could have easily have said, "Ok, we are rebuilding where do you guys all want to go" and that would have been doing them right too. And if they got mad just tell them you can't have your cake and eat it to.

I still think the expectations a few years ago were that atleast one ofVilardi and Turcotte would be a 2C caliber players and maybe knocking on the door of 1C (not unrealistic expectations for players taken that high) and they would be able to kind of double dip with the early primes of the youth and the final few years of the core-four. I think when they realized that wasn't the case they pivoted to bringing in prime players like Danault and Fiala to try and get one last run with those vets. Which I don't think is a bad strategy if they no longer believed in a lot of the youth.

 

[Herby]

This is why drafting/development is important, too. On top of players who can contribute now, you need players with whom you are certain will grow, by virtue of their young age, who you expect to get better.

Kempe may get better, but in his mid-20s, studies show it doesn't improve significantly. Danault has a lower likelihood of improving, by virtue of being an age where "peak" is met.

The prospects need to improve much more, sooner, rather than later. This isn't saying they suck. This is saying that burying potential franchise players on the thid line without opportunity to generate offense with gifted scorers is a bad idea, whether you care about winning now or in the future.

Yup, we could again see another consequence to the poor and unorthodox development decision with QB two years ago with this years team. It already hurt the Kings last year when a player they took #2 was broken into the NHL in the middle of the playoff race and struggled mightily. Instead of 56 games he would have had in D+1 on other NHL teams he had 6 and looked lost and was no help to a contending team in D+2. This year instead of a player with nearly 100 NHL games of experience (with many of those games likely as at least a decent player) that he would have had on another team we have a player with 46 games experience (where most nights he was one of the worst players on the ice) who we just don't know how good he will or won't be.

Assuming he is the player we all expect, a QB entering his third NHL season would be in a much better position to assume a more significant role and keep the team afloat should Kopitar and/or Danault regress a bit this season.

Perhaps all these other teams who do things a certain way might just be on to something and Rob Blake isn't the "smartest men in the room" like some think.

There is nothing wrong with "That's the way it's always been" or "That is what others would do" if those things traditionally work well. The wheel doesn't need to be re-invented when it comes to prospect development.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopitar:
October to February: -5
March: -3
April: +2

If by "entire back end of the season" you meant "except the last month of the season", okay.

Anze Kopitar's two-way game isn't slipping because he was +2 in April?

Is that really the hill you're dying on here?

I've defended the guy more than just about anyone here but we all saw what we all saw.

 

[lumbergh]

Anze Kopitar's two-way game isn't slipping because he was +2 in April?

Is that really the hill you're dying on here?

I've defended the guy more than just about anyone here but we all saw what we all saw.

I'm not the one who said Kopi was "in the red for the entire back end of the season". I'm just letting you know that's not correct.

 

[Kudelski37]

Anze Kopitar's two-way game isn't slipping because he was +2 in April?

Is that really the hill you're dying on here?

I've defended the guy more than just about anyone here but we all saw what we all saw.

I think Lumbergh is pointing out it was an issue for most of the season ...it was an issue for longer than you stated. This suggests to me it is likely more age related than simply usage if Kopitar couldn't keep up defensively early in the season when one would expect him to be the healthiest.

 

[Reaper45]

I stumbled upon this article from 2000 when searching for a pic of Hasek against the Kings.

Kings Inquired About Hasek

Hockey: Despite rumors, Leiweke says no deal for Sabres' goalie is imminent.

www.latimes.com

My time frame is iffy but is that when they got Cechmanek?

 

[FSL KINGS]

Will this be the season that Kopi gets less than 20 minutes of TOI a game? It has to be. Kopi has 1 single season of less than 20 minutes of TOI in his career. It was under Sutter, who by the way, played Kopi less TOI then any of his other coaches. Probably because he trusted Jeff Carter and Jarrett Stoll to play reliable minutes behind him. Meanwhile, Patrice Bergeron hasn't played a 20+ minute TOI season since he was 21 years old and has played 18 minutes of TOI the last 4 seasons while being highly effective and 2 years older than Kopi. There is zero reason for Kopi to be overworked yet again this upcoming season.

Quick add on the Danault regression. To be fair to him, his deployment is vastly different in LA than Chicago and Montreal. He was 33% oZS in Chicago and 41.8% for Montreal. He was 50.3% in LA. So that's going to give an uptick on offensive zone chances to some degree.

Centers
Kopitar, Danault, Lizotte, Byfield
Backup options: Andersson, Kupari,

Will Kopitar drop below 20 min?
Doesn't look good.

 

[lumbergh]

And norris-caliber defenseman Joe Corvo was leading the team in +/- one year.

It's not a good metric for measuring two-way play. Especially in isolation relative to the rest of the team.

The Kings were out of the playoffs by December, and climbed their way back up.

I see the argument is going sideways, as usual. There was an assertion that Kopitar is in decline and would continue to decline. I made the argument that his numbers last season are right in line with his entire career. The numbers say what they say, everyone will interpret them differently.

Now we are talking about Kopitar's two-way play. If someone has a better metric for measuring two-way play and wants to analyze Kopitar's decline as it relates to that metric, then I'm all ears.

 

[lumbergh]

Regression is a real thing and it's already baked into the Kings season point total line by the models the books use, that is why it is down despite adding Fiala for nothing off of the roster last year and the return of Doughty for (hopefully a full season)

With Kopitar it is age, the people who come up with these lines know that an age 35 season can see great fall-off for any player, especially one with the mileage of Kopitar. Really, any season after age 33 can see a big fall-off for a player.

They look at stuff like this

Ryan Getzlaf
Age 33 - 56GP, 11G, 50A, 61 Pts

He never sniffed point per game again over the next 4 seasons, there was no 70 point decline. Getzlaf went from an 88 point pace to a 55 point pace over one season.

Jeff Carter
Age 33 - 27GP, 13G, 9A, 22 Pts (39G, 67 Point Pace)
Age 34 - 76GP, 13G, 20A, 33 Pts

Carter had been a consistent 60+ point producer until he suddenly wasn't.

If anything Kopitar is living on borrowed time. And as others mentioned, the defensive metrics already began to slip a bit last year.

There is certainly the chance that Kopitar pulls a Bergeron and has two more years, not saying that isn't one of the possible outcomes but he is certainly a prime candidate for age driven regression.

With Danault it is more cut and dry and why he is on mine (and basically everyones regression list). Last year Danault had a career high in shots, shooting % and obviously goals. And these weren't moderate career highs, he blew everything out of the water in comparison to his previous career totals.

If Danault were to generate the same 194 shots on goal (2.45 per game) he had last year (which I think is very unlikely), and shoot at his previous career average of 9.4% he would produce 18.2 goals.

If Danault were to generate the the same 1.66 shots per game (136 over a full 82) he has averaged since his age 24 season but still maintained the career high 13.9% shooting he had last year he would score 18.9 goals this season.

If Danault were to return to his career normals in both areas and shoot 9.4% on 136 shots he would score 12.7 goals.

The Kings system does funnel the puck to the net more than most teams in the NHL, so it is likely that he does exceed his Montreal shooting numbers again, but 194 shots is very unlikely. If he were to put up 160 shots for example.

Career shooting % before last year on 160 shots = 15 goals
Last year shooting % on 160 shots = 22.2 goals
Previous year shooting % on 160 shots = 10.8 goals

It's just hard to come up with a model that finds 27 goals again for Danault, and really anything close to that.

Plus it is very unlikely Danault plays 18:08 a game next season, if he does it means QB looks just as awful as he did the year before and obviously none of us expect that to be the case.

It is just very likely that Danault had your classic career year. For a guy like Kempe who was 25 last year you can more fairly call that a potential breakout year, but breakouts in age 28/29 seasons are just much less common.

I have Danault at 15-20 goals this season.

I get your argument, but I just have no idea when or if Kopitar is going to drop off a cliff. Joe Thornton scored a point per game at age 36. Then he dropped off, but continued to put up solid numbers until age 39. I think that Thornton might be a better model for Kopitar. Likewise, Mats Sundin continued to score at a high pace until age 36-37.

Who knows. We'll know when it happens.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

My time frame is iffy but is that when they got Cechmanek?

This rumor was floating around one year before they acquired Felix Potvin.

The Kings acquired Cechmanek after Potvin's time in LA was over in 2003.

 

[Schrute farms]

The last 10 pages of this thread...

OMG -- so awesome. You just brought me back in time like 35 years. I totally forgot about the Young Ones. I loved watching that back in the mid 80s (reruns on Comedy Central maybe idk). Crazy. I'm not sure if it was teenaged drinking or what that made us think it was so great/funny. I'm going to find some episodes to watch this Labor Day weekend (sure as heck ain't going outside in this heat) and find out if it was truly funny or not.

 

[kingsfan28]

Anze Kopitar's two-way game isn't slipping because he was +2 in April?

Is that really the hill you're dying on here?

I've defended the guy more than just about anyone here but we all saw what we all saw.

He was much more effective when his minutes were down. Lets hope they spread a few more minutes around with the rest of the centers, especially on the pp.

edit: not sure how Sol got quoted at the top of the message.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I see the argument is going sideways, as usual. There was an assertion that Kopitar is in decline and would continue to decline. I made the argument that his numbers last season are right in line with his entire career. The numbers say what they say, everyone will interpret them differently.

Now we are talking about Kopitar's two-way play. If someone has a better metric for measuring two-way play and wants to analyze Kopitar's decline as it relates to that metric, then I'm all ears.

I'm not going to be the one to go check the stats but looking at his CF% CA/60 etc down the stretch vs earlier in the season would be a better way than just using +/-

 

[Reaper45]

This rumor was floating around one year before they acquired Felix Potvin.

The Kings acquired Cechmanek after Potvin's time in LA was over in 2003.

Man those early 2000’s are starting to blend together. God Hasek instead of Potvin, as much as we all liked Felix, would’ve been great.

 

[Statto]

Speaking of Battlestar Galactica. I got drunk and watched the first episode last night. Raccoon jesus that was terrible. How did people really like that show?

I’m normally very tolerant of peoples opinions but you are just wrong. Completely wrong.

 

[kingsboy11]

I think the biggest issue with Kopi at this point in his career is his TOI. Getting Danault should've fixed that. Age will definitely catch up to him, but given how he plays I still think he's capable of 60+ points. But we have to find a way to lower his TOI from now on. You could tell by the end of the season he was getting tired. And I get it from a coaching staff that when you have a player like him who can play in all situations that you would want him on the ice at all times, but you literally brought in Danault who is Kopi lite. At some point you have to trust the depth of your forwards.

And the thing is if certain things go our way it may come naturally. If special teams in general are better and we aren't always playing in these close games maybe we won't have to rely on him all the time to close out a game and sending him out there every other shift to protect/chase a lead.

I think of the things to be concerned about I think Kopi is further down that list. Special teams, goaltending, youth production and health are what I would put as a higher concerns than what Kopi's production is going to be like.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I see the argument is going sideways, as usual. There was an assertion that Kopitar is in decline and would continue to decline. I made the argument that his numbers last season are right in line with his entire career. The numbers say what they say, everyone will interpret them differently.

Now we are talking about Kopitar's two-way play. If someone has a better metric for measuring two-way play and wants to analyze Kopitar's decline as it relates to that metric, then I'm all ears.

Well, considering league wide offense was up last year and Trevor Moore was actually the team's highest scorer from January on, sure, let's just generously say everyone will interpret them differently.

It's a total copout to blame it on the argument going sideways when Kopitar's game isn't raw production. You have to look at the 200 ft game.

I'm not the one who said Kopi was "in the red for the entire back end of the season". I'm just letting you know that's not correct.

It absolutely is if you consider the playoffs as well. The dude got eviscerated. You don't just leave that out because it's not convenient to your extremely selective data set of "well he was fine in April."

Ultimately I think if his minutes are under control and the PP isn't a shitshow partially because of his minutes then he'll gently settle around 60 points and much better metrics but you really have to deliberately put your head in the sand to not see him getting beat routinely on stuff you would NEVER have seen happen prior to the last year or so.

 

[YP44]

This rumor was floating around one year before they acquired Felix Potvin.

The Kings acquired Cechmanek after Potvin's time in LA was over in 2003.

I am probably alone in thought Chechmanek was not that bad. He had a decent save percentage, but his issue was letting in the softies.

I was at a game here in Calgary where Iggy got a hat trick on him, and I think one goal was scored from well outside the blue line.

 

[DoktorJeep]

My guess is Kopitar turning into a +2 in the last month had mostly to do with the disappearance of Cal Petersen from the ice.​

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I am probably alone in thought Chechmanek was not that bad. He had a decent save percentage, but his issue was letting in the softies.

I was at a game here in Calgary where Iggy got a hat trick on him, and I think one goal was scored from well outside the blue line.

He was pure garbage. I’ll never forget this game.

And that piece of turd never appeared in another NHL game.

 

[King'sPawn]

I see the argument is going sideways, as usual. There was an assertion that Kopitar is in decline and would continue to decline. I made the argument that his numbers last season are right in line with his entire career. The numbers say what they say, everyone will interpret them differently.

Now we are talking about Kopitar's two-way play. If someone has a better metric for measuring two-way play and wants to analyze Kopitar's decline as it relates to that metric, then I'm all ears.

We're talking about a 35 year-old. There is an expected decline for all players at that age. But okay, here we go:

Anže Kopitar Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Anže Kopitar. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Highlighted the Corsi For relative % on the right.

Since 2015-16, the shots generated versus shots allowed has gone down, relative to the rest of the team. There are, of course, a couple exceptions:
1. Last season, abbreviated, when he had more rest time.
2. 2017-18 when he had his career year/hart trophy season.

That's in all situations: even strength, powerplay, and penalty kill.

If you want to use a metric to have a sense of a player's two way play, you'll want to look at the offense generated while he's on the ice, how well he suppresses the opponent's offense, and how well he's doing it relative to his teammates (because using raw CF% doesn't account for how much teammates may be affecting a player).

Edit: added clarity above