Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[Lt Dan]

Clown it is.View attachment 580374

Thanks. I had a shitty day and I needed that

 

[Sol]

Thanks. I had a shitty day and I needed that

Im glad I can make you smile <3

 

[tny760]

Tage Thompson 7 for $50m

I think it's a bit rich for a player with basically one good season entering his age 25 season.I don't see him as a high end-talent, I don't think he is as good as Suzuki or Norris who signed pretty similar deals. That shooting percentage returning to career normal could be disastrous. But when you're Buffalo who has struggled to add good pieces the last decade I guess it is something you have to do.

I wonder if Anaheim and Montreal end up committing similar long-term deals to Zegras and Caufield, or if they wait for their ELC's to expire after this season.

i dunno, i'm a believer in him. kid does some pretty high-level stuff and that's especially so for someone his size. it's not like he was shooting 25% or whatever like william karlsson was, i think he's genuinely growing into his position. definitely true that buffalo just has to pay though.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't know why anyone would be shocked that Tage Thompson is following typical "big guy" development.

Sure last year was inflated offense all around and like Kempe maybe you don't expect 35 goals but even 25g-60p is fair for that money. Watching him play, like AK, shows it's not just a fluke.

 

[Statto]

I agree 100%.

I am the type of person who has few interests but is very passionate about those interests and love to interact and debate with people who share those same interests. So for me that is Kings hockey, Michigan athletics, gambling and fishing. I was also a history major in school so I am a strong believer in using historical precedent in many parts of life, including how a sports team is managed. That is why I was so vocal about the Turcotte and Byfield things, it just went so against almost all historical precedent in how to handle those players it is just tough to see how an NHL front office completely ignores that part of it.

I have gotten a few people on this forum call me out for making to long posts, that they don't want to read researched stuff, tldr etc. And that is fine, some people are more casual fans and/or have the 40 characters or less type mindset that is so prevalent now. If you want to read one paragraph or less posts and want to avoid reading a mini-research papers that sometimes are negative about the Kings then people should ignore me. I personally enjoy reading posts like that from others on this forum because I love to learn new stuff and be exposed to research that others have taken the time to make to support their case, so my feelings are that there are others who do enjoy that and I am hoping to add to the conversation. But to some other(s) it is "Get a life"

The ridiculous and mocking reply to your well thought out post just kind of proves that point. To people like that they will reply with insults, vulgarity or name calling towards those who disagree with them, which adds nothing to the discussion. And then ofcourse add to it with the "better stuff to do" line and think it applies to everyone, not knowing or even considering for a second that to some people discussing all aspects of the Kings is a very enjoyable thing for them to do.

I appreciate and enjoy the discussions here, there are some extremely knowledgeable and well read people on this forum, there are people I respect whom I disagree with sometimes, and other than a few extremely rare circumstances it always stays civil. This forum and the entire HF community in general has been a wonderful resource in helping me with how I make a living. You learn by visiting and reading team boards and reading the people who always have strong opinions and using that to use in how a team is shaping up or trending.

But with others it can just never stay civil or be a productive discussion. Being told to "Go be a Ducks fan" or "What a horseshit take" just adds so little to a conversation and drains on the whole board, which is unfortunate. But I guess you have to take the good with the bad.



I've had a few people I do business with ask me about the Kings line.

On the surface I would say low and take the over if you really want to bet it, but its a soft-play, honestly probably a pass.

Reasons for optimism
- Added a 1st line forward for nothing off last years roster

- Doughty returns after playing 41 games where he was a Top 10 d-man

- PP is improved, possibly drastically based on how bad it was.

- The return to health of other defenders, especially Matt Roy.

- Progression from Kaliyev and potentially Byfield (but I think AK's will be more likely and more significant)

- Return to normalcy from Iafallo (assuming last year was an injury)

- The Kings were 9-12 in combined OT/SO games. .500 is expected

- Anaheim and San Jose project to be pretty bad the whole year

- Seattle will be better but still pretty bad


Reasons for pessimism
- Continued decline of Kopitar

- Major offensive regression for Danault and Kempe. I have Danault as a top 3 regression in the NHL. Kempe not as much but 35 goals is extremely unlikely. These two combined for 62 goals last year after being anywhere from 10-20 goal scorers their entire careers.

- Kopitar decline + Danault return to normal leaves the Kings in potentially a real bad spot down the middle offensively.

- Regression of Moore and Arvidsson (largely due to Danault)

- 4th line regression. No way do they do what they did last year.

- The Kings were 18-8 in regulation games decided by 1 goal, almost impossible to repeat that

- Vegas being healthy is probably a slightly better roster than the Kings

- Vancouver will be improved from last year as a whole based on their second half. Miller trade looms though.

- Goaltending concerns

Hey. Don’t change. I like the debate and don’t always agree but I’m always open to evolving my thinking. I’m very much a believer in using facts and history to learn and I love a good stat. I’m very much an off the cuff poster most of the time these days and don’t do the leg work before posting sometimes. So it’s not unusual for me to make a half baked post that I’m still thinking through as I’m normally doing it whilst in mid conversation and at the same time watching something on tv. It’s probably one of the reasons I never get upset about things. Now I’m thinking about that, I’ll try harder going forward.

I do completely see the point about how things have always been done. However, if they truly think a different approach can deliver better results in the long run they should go with it. Of course it’s higher risk but it would be higher reward also and in the mid term delivers an advantage. I don’t want them to shy away from a strategy they believe is better because of the optics, risk to their jobs etc. Better to regret doing something than regret not doing it. However if it blows up in their faces then on the management side it should be scorched earth. I think we are a long way (several years) from that though.

I do think it is fair to say a huge amount rests on Byfield in terms of being competitive. Whilst signing AM is ‘possible’ unless there has been significant tampering (not Blake’s style) they won’t be building a strategy around that, so currently that’s no more than wishful thinking. Yes trades can be made for an elite 1C but I can imagine the huge overpayment that would take.

I think your optimism/pessimism stuff is fair. I’d add to optimism fewer man games lost in total (I know you partly covered that) and the big one is Clarke. He’s not a lock, I get that but if he’s ready he’s potentially a transformative player that really can improve the power play and allow Blake to be more aggressive in the trade market.

I do think 30 goals for Kempe is possible because his scoring came from an evolution in his play as opposed to something like an unsustainable shooting %. I think his presence on that top line helped Kopitar as much as Kopitar helped him, so he didn’t score because his C was delivering unexpected levels of quality playmaking.

 

[Herby]

Nemec, 2nd overall, is ranked 48th. Logan Cooley, 3rd overall, is ranked 53rd.

I wish rankings like this provided more context of *what* they're ranking? Is this based on upside? Expected careers? NHL readiness?

I think it’s just as likely they pulled names out of a hat.

I am normally the last one to criticize these lists and am always defending guys like Pronman and Wheeler, but this might be the worst prospect list I’ve ever seen.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

I’ll sure be happy when training camp starts and we can get back to slamming other teams instead of ours. Will QB turn into a #1 center, who knows, but I’m happy he’s on our team. If he hits his ceiling, we’re set for a long time with him and Danault. Will Clarke turn into the second coming of DD? Who knows, but I’m glad he’s on our team. Gotta give him some time to mature and make mistakes/gain experience. Could we use a grade A goalie prospect, yes but so can many teams. there just aren’t that many “can’t miss” ones out there.
We just came off a 99 point season and hopefully they can replicate it (or improve this year). I sure like where we’re at right now as opposed to the WD40 year. Rebuilt farm system, made some strong trades/FA pickups. Enjoy the ride guys/gals, the future looks bright.

 

[lumbergh]

I agree 100%.

I am the type of person who has few interests but is very passionate about those interests and love to interact and debate with people who share those same interests. So for me that is Kings hockey, Michigan athletics, gambling and fishing. I was also a history major in school so I am a strong believer in using historical precedent in many parts of life, including how a sports team is managed. That is why I was so vocal about the Turcotte and Byfield things, it just went so against almost all historical precedent in how to handle those players it is just tough to see how an NHL front office completely ignores that part of it.

I have gotten a few people on this forum call me out for making to long posts, that they don't want to read researched stuff, tldr etc. And that is fine, some people are more casual fans and/or have the 40 characters or less type mindset that is so prevalent now. If you want to read one paragraph or less posts and want to avoid reading a mini-research papers that sometimes are negative about the Kings then people should ignore me. I personally enjoy reading posts like that from others on this forum because I love to learn new stuff and be exposed to research that others have taken the time to make to support their case, so my feelings are that there are others who do enjoy that and I am hoping to add to the conversation. But to some other(s) it is "Get a life"

The ridiculous and mocking reply to your well thought out post just kind of proves that point. To people like that they will reply with insults, vulgarity or name calling towards those who disagree with them, which adds nothing to the discussion. And then ofcourse add to it with the "better stuff to do" line and think it applies to everyone, not knowing or even considering for a second that to some people discussing all aspects of the Kings is a very enjoyable thing for them to do.

I appreciate and enjoy the discussions here, there are some extremely knowledgeable and well read people on this forum, there are people I respect whom I disagree with sometimes, and other than a few extremely rare circumstances it always stays civil. This forum and the entire HF community in general has been a wonderful resource in helping me with how I make a living. You learn by visiting and reading team boards and reading the people who always have strong opinions and using that to use in how a team is shaping up or trending.

But with others it can just never stay civil or be a productive discussion. Being told to "Go be a Ducks fan" or "What a horseshit take" just adds so little to a conversation and drains on the whole board, which is unfortunate. But I guess you have to take the good with the bad.



I've had a few people I do business with ask me about the Kings line.

On the surface I would say low and take the over if you really want to bet it, but its a soft-play, honestly probably a pass.

Reasons for optimism
- Added a 1st line forward for nothing off last years roster

- Doughty returns after playing 41 games where he was a Top 10 d-man

- PP is improved, possibly drastically based on how bad it was.

- The return to health of other defenders, especially Matt Roy.

- Progression from Kaliyev and potentially Byfield (but I think AK's will be more likely and more significant)

- Return to normalcy from Iafallo (assuming last year was an injury)

- The Kings were 9-12 in combined OT/SO games. .500 is expected

- Anaheim and San Jose project to be pretty bad the whole year

- Seattle will be better but still pretty bad


Reasons for pessimism
- Continued decline of Kopitar

- Major offensive regression for Danault and Kempe. I have Danault as a top 3 regression in the NHL. Kempe not as much but 35 goals is extremely unlikely. These two combined for 62 goals last year after being anywhere from 10-20 goal scorers their entire careers.

- Kopitar decline + Danault return to normal leaves the Kings in potentially a real bad spot down the middle offensively.

- Regression of Moore and Arvidsson (largely due to Danault)

- 4th line regression. No way do they do what they did last year.

- The Kings were 18-8 in regulation games decided by 1 goal, almost impossible to repeat that

- Vegas being healthy is probably a slightly better roster than the Kings

- Vancouver will be improved from last year as a whole based on their second half. Miller trade looms though.

- Goaltending concerns

A lot of this seems reasonable, but I just don't believe in this "regression" thing. All the time people put that up, expecting a good season after bad or bad season after good. That's neither how hockey or statistics work. As if you flipped 3 heads in a row, the next one you expect to be tails. There's still a 50% chance the next will be heads.

I also think the "decline of Kopitar" has become so ingrained here that it has become conventional wisdom. The guy is a machine. I can hardly think of a more consistent player over the past two decades than Kopitar. The main reason is that he stays healthy. His stats last season are in line with his stats his entire career (minus a few goals and plus a few assists). Outside of a two week hiatus in March, he was near a point-per-game for the entire season, even at the end of the season when you'd think he'd get tired. I just don't see a reason he won't hit 60 points again. The guy is a machine. His stats might even take a bump from playing next to Fiala instead of Iafallo.

 

[Schrute farms]

Wow, i log in and see like 4-5 pages of posts and think something big went down for the Kings. Nope, just the same old he said / she said. I suppose TC and the season can't start soon enough for some to have actual things to rightly argue about. Looking forward to that

 

[Lt Dan]

Wow, i log in and see like 4-5 pages of posts and think something big went down for the Kings. Nope, just the same old he said / she said. I suppose TC and the season can't start soon enough for some to have actual things to rightly argue about. Looking forward to that

Bears
Beets
Battlestar Galactica

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Kings will be seeing these uniforms when they meet the Buffalo Sabres on December 13.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

A lot of this seems reasonable, but I just don't believe in this "regression" thing. All the time people put that up, expecting a good season after bad or bad season after good. That's neither how hockey or statistics work. As if you flipped 3 heads in a row, the next one you expect to be tails. There's still a 50% chance the next will be heads.

I also think the "decline of Kopitar" has become so ingrained here that it has become conventional wisdom. The guy is a machine. I can hardly think of a more consistent player over the past two decades than Kopitar. The main reason is that he stays healthy. His stats last season are in line with his stats his entire career (minus a few goals and plus a few assists). Outside of a two week hiatus in March, he was near a point-per-game for the entire season, even at the end of the season when you'd think he'd get tired. I just don't see a reason he won't hit 60 points again. The guy is a machine. His stats might even take a bump from playing next to Fiala instead of Iafallo.

Regression is there when you are talking about....player stats.....mainly shooting percentage I am talking about here, if a guy has a career average of 14% shooting percentage....and one year he goes bonkers and gets 30% shooting percentage......common sense says there will be regression back to his average.....

As far as teams season to season I agree with you there.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I also think the "decline of Kopitar" has become so ingrained here that it has become conventional wisdom. The guy is a machine. I can hardly think of a more consistent player over the past two decades than Kopitar. The main reason is that he stays healthy. His stats last season are in line with his stats his entire career (minus a few goals and plus a few assists). Outside of a two week hiatus in March, he was near a point-per-game for the entire season, even at the end of the season when you'd think he'd get tired. I just don't see a reason he won't hit 60 points again. The guy is a machine. His stats might even take a bump from playing next to Fiala instead of Iafallo.

Kopitar's production was ok.

His two-way play, however, was not up to par, as he was in the red the entire back end of the season.

I chalk that up to being exhausted from playing stupid minutes, but we can't just hand wave past that. It got worse as the season went on so it's fair to ask what impact is ice time and what impact is Father Time.

Edit: and it was no more apparent than in the playoffs, where he was on the ice for 5v5 4GF/9GA for a 30% GF%, even worse than my favorite punching bag liability AA. And don't say it was his McDavid matchup, because Danault found a way to be 7/2 for 78%.

 

[BigKing]

The Kings will be seeing these uniforms when they meet the Buffalo Sabres on December 13.

8-2 loss incoming

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

8-2 loss incoming

The ghost of Jason Pominville will haunt the Kings that night.

 

[mysterman2]

The last 10 pages of this thread...

 

[redcard]

The last 10 pages of this thread...

Give or take 373

 

[bland]

The ghost of Jason Pominville will haunt the Kings that night.

Afinogenov will drop 4.

 

[Herby]

Regression is a real thing and it's already baked into the Kings season point total line by the models the books use, that is why it is down despite adding Fiala for nothing off of the roster last year and the return of Doughty for (hopefully a full season)

With Kopitar it is age, the people who come up with these lines know that an age 35 season can see great fall-off for any player, especially one with the mileage of Kopitar. Really, any season after age 33 can see a big fall-off for a player.

They look at stuff like this

Ryan Getzlaf
Age 33 - 56GP, 11G, 50A, 61 Pts

He never sniffed point per game again over the next 4 seasons, there was no 70 point decline. Getzlaf went from an 88 point pace to a 55 point pace over one season.

Jeff Carter
Age 33 - 27GP, 13G, 9A, 22 Pts (39G, 67 Point Pace)
Age 34 - 76GP, 13G, 20A, 33 Pts

Carter had been a consistent 60+ point producer until he suddenly wasn't.

If anything Kopitar is living on borrowed time. And as others mentioned, the defensive metrics already began to slip a bit last year.

There is certainly the chance that Kopitar pulls a Bergeron and has two more years, not saying that isn't one of the possible outcomes but he is certainly a prime candidate for age driven regression.

With Danault it is more cut and dry and why he is on mine (and basically everyones regression list). Last year Danault had a career high in shots, shooting % and obviously goals. And these weren't moderate career highs, he blew everything out of the water in comparison to his previous career totals.

If Danault were to generate the same 194 shots on goal (2.45 per game) he had last year (which I think is very unlikely), and shoot at his previous career average of 9.4% he would produce 18.2 goals.

If Danault were to generate the the same 1.66 shots per game (136 over a full 82) he has averaged since his age 24 season but still maintained the career high 13.9% shooting he had last year he would score 18.9 goals this season.

If Danault were to return to his career normals in both areas and shoot 9.4% on 136 shots he would score 12.7 goals.

The Kings system does funnel the puck to the net more than most teams in the NHL, so it is likely that he does exceed his Montreal shooting numbers again, but 194 shots is very unlikely. If he were to put up 160 shots for example.

Career shooting % before last year on 160 shots = 15 goals
Last year shooting % on 160 shots = 22.2 goals
Previous year shooting % on 160 shots = 10.8 goals

It's just hard to come up with a model that finds 27 goals again for Danault, and really anything close to that.

Plus it is very unlikely Danault plays 18:08 a game next season, if he does it means QB looks just as awful as he did the year before and obviously none of us expect that to be the case.

It is just very likely that Danault had your classic career year. For a guy like Kempe who was 25 last year you can more fairly call that a potential breakout year, but breakouts in age 28/29 seasons are just much less common.

I have Danault at 15-20 goals this season.

 

[cyclones22]

Kopitar's production was ok.

His two-way play, however, was not up to par, as he was in the red the entire back end of the season.

I chalk that up to being exhausted from playing stupid minutes, but we can't just hand wave past that. It got worse as the season went on so it's fair to ask what impact is ice time and what impact is Father Time.

Edit: and it was no more apparent than in the playoffs, where he was on the ice for 5v5 4GF/9GA for a 30% GF%, even worse than my favorite punching bag liability AA. And don't say it was his McDavid matchup, because Danault found a way to be 7/2 for 78%.

Will this be the season that Kopi gets less than 20 minutes of TOI a game? It has to be. Kopi has 1 single season of less than 20 minutes of TOI in his career. It was under Sutter, who by the way, played Kopi less TOI then any of his other coaches. Probably because he trusted Jeff Carter and Jarrett Stoll to play reliable minutes behind him. Meanwhile, Patrice Bergeron hasn't played a 20+ minute TOI season since he was 21 years old and has played 18 minutes of TOI the last 4 seasons while being highly effective and 2 years older than Kopi. There is zero reason for Kopi to be overworked yet again this upcoming season.

Quick add on the Danault regression. To be fair to him, his deployment is vastly different in LA than Chicago and Montreal. He was 33% oZS in Chicago and 41.8% for Montreal. He was 50.3% in LA. So that's going to give an uptick on offensive zone chances to some degree.

 

[bland]

A lot of this seems reasonable, but I just don't believe in this "regression" thing. All the time people put that up, expecting a good season after bad or bad season after good. That's neither how hockey or statistics work. As if you flipped 3 heads in a row, the next one you expect to be tails. There's still a 50% chance the next will be heads.

I also think the "decline of Kopitar" has become so ingrained here that it has become conventional wisdom. The guy is a machine. I can hardly think of a more consistent player over the past two decades than Kopitar. The main reason is that he stays healthy. His stats last season are in line with his stats his entire career (minus a few goals and plus a few assists). Outside of a two week hiatus in March, he was near a point-per-game for the entire season, even at the end of the season when you'd think he'd get tired. I just don't see a reason he won't hit 60 points again. The guy is a machine. His stats might even take a bump from playing next to Fiala instead of Iafallo.

Its not an immediate decline that is the concern, its that the lack of situatuonal minutes and experience for Byfield, or another young offensive-minded center, that will most defintely result in a negative gap when Kopitar's production does drop off steeply.

The priority should not be to win now. 60 points for your #1 center is simply not good enough, especially when that center is playing over 1/3rd of every game and a minute twenty of every power play - and extra-especially when the vaunted defensive work absolutely declined last year.

You want the Kings to win again, you invest heavily in 2 or 3 seasons down the road, you don't overload the lineup with 7-8 secondary offensive players at the expense of developing potential first line forwards.

 

[Reaper45]

Bears
Beets
Battlestar Galactica

Speaking of Battlestar Galactica. I got drunk and watched the first episode last night. Raccoon jesus that was terrible. How did people really like that show?

 

[lumbergh]

Kopitar's production was ok.

His two-way play, however, was not up to par, as he was in the red the entire back end of the season.

I chalk that up to being exhausted from playing stupid minutes, but we can't just hand wave past that. It got worse as the season went on so it's fair to ask what impact is ice time and what impact is Father Time.

Edit: and it was no more apparent than in the playoffs, where he was on the ice for 5v5 4GF/9GA for a 30% GF%, even worse than my favorite punching bag liability AA. And don't say it was his McDavid matchup, because Danault found a way to be 7/2 for 78%.

Kopitar:
October to February: -5
March: -3
April: +2

If by "entire back end of the season" you meant "except the last month of the season", okay.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I stumbled upon this article from 2000 when searching for a pic of Hasek against the Kings.

Kings Inquired About Hasek

Hockey: Despite rumors, Leiweke says no deal for Sabres' goalie is imminent.

www.latimes.com

The Kings have talked to the Buffalo Sabres about acquiring goaltender Dominik Hasek, who led the Czech Republic to the Olympic gold medal at Nagano, Japan, in 1998, carried the Sabres to the Stanley Cup finals last spring and twice has been voted the NHL’s most valuable player.

The Kings initiated talks several weeks ago but were told the Sabres had a commitment to Hasek and would not trade him. The Kings left it to the Sabres to call them back if anything changed, and King President Tim Leiweke said the club had not heard from the Sabres as of late Saturday afternoon.

Although rumors circulating during this weekend’s All-Star festivities had a deal being imminent--some versions said the trade would involve three teams and would result in the Kings sending Hasek to the Philadelphia Flyers--Leiweke said late Saturday nothing is imminent.

 

[Herby]

Its not an immediate decline that is the concern, its that the lack of situatuonal minutes and experience for Byfield, or another young offensive-minded center, that will most defintely result in a negative gap when Kopitar's production does drop off steeply.

The priority should not be to win now. 60 points for your #1 center is simply not good enough, especially when that center is playing over 1/3rd of every game and a minute twenty of every power play - and extra-especially when the vaunted defensive work absolutely declined last year.

You want the Kings to win again, you invest heavily in 2 or 3 seasons down the road, you don't overload the lineup with 7-8 secondary offensive players at the expense of developing potential first line forwards.

That ship sailed last year, man. We can say we disagree with it but that is the direction they went and it can't be undone.

Whether it is your belief that Luc and Blake weren't patient enough and wanted an instant contender or semi-contender

Or my belief that they came to the realization that some of their potential building blocks were just not going to develop into those types of players (specifically Vilardi, Turcotte & JAD).

Them adding Arvidsson, Danault, Fiala and rumored to be interested in JC was just the turning a page to something different.