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Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

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King'sPawn said:
If it was truly that random, then there would be a wider spread of success stories all over each draft year. There would be more stars in third and fourth rounds than first rounds in some years. Would you rather have 10 first round picks or, say, 20 fourth round picks, which would you take?

I think you are oversimplifying the "luck" factor.

Yes, in every year, players who are great players fall. That's because these are inexact sciences which do have variables. But those players also went to teams who can make it work.

There's a reason why Edmonton has had limited success. They've relied on their top-10 picks to carry them, and very little outside the first round has had any success. That's not just luck.
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its an educated guess is my point- you can do analytics til the cows come home but still going to have cases of Alex Daigle and Pavel Brendl vs Shea Weber and Brayden Point.

Hell even Jordan Spence as an example- any doubt in a redraft he gets taken in the 1st rd?
 
mysterman2 said:
its an educated guess is my point- you can do analytics til the cows come home but still going to have cases of Alex Daigle and Pavel Brendl vs Shea Weber and Brayden Point.

Hell even Jordan Spence as an example- any doubt in a redraft he gets taken in the 1st rd?
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Alex Lafreniere was the consensus #1 pick in 2020 and was projected to put up 60 points in his first season -- the reality was more like 20 points. Stutzle had more...
 
Axl Rhoadz said:
So, then it's safe to say that Danault is an anomaly as well? Maybe EVERYTHING that's good about the Kings right now is an anomaly. "The world according to Sol"
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Goal scoring was high last year in the league Baby girl. And on that note, yes danault hasn’t come close to that many goals in his career so yes that’s a statistical anomaly lmaoooo how dense can you be
 
Sol said:
Goal scoring was high last year in the league Baby girl. And on that note, yes danault hasn’t come close to that many goals in his career so yes that’s a statistical anomaly lmaoooo how dense can you be
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Sorry, I just want to make sure I'm following along ... so we are looking at about 20 goals less this year between Kempe and Danault. Need to temper my expectations, thanks.
 
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He'll probably want 7 years at 13M or something.

The Coyotes will have plenty of cap space I'm sure.
 
mysterman2 said:
its an educated guess is my point- you can do analytics til the cows come home but still going to have cases of Alex Daigle and Pavel Brendl vs Shea Weber and Brayden Point.

Hell even Jordan Spence as an example- any doubt in a redraft he gets taken in the 1st rd?
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But that's why you don't scout based on analytics alone. If it were that random and meaningless, teams would hire a bunch of stat geeks to crunch numbers and not spend hundreds of thousands of dollars hiring scouts to travel around the world to meet and watch them in person.

I wouldn't say without a doubt Spence gets taken in the first round in a redraft. It's only been 3 seasons since he was drafted. Not that I don't love the kid, but it's too early. I honestly think 5 seasons post draft is when you can start asking questions, because now we're all at the threshold of players being waiver eligible. That tells you when a team wants to keep a player in the NHL and risk not losing him for free, and also if other NHL teams still feel someone's worth taking on waivers to keep them in the NHL.

Nobody's disputing there's an element of luck that comes into play in how things turn out. But luck is when it's a singular incident.

I can say "I had bad luck with my ex-wife." That's a singular incident. But if I have a pattern of partners who become abusive or unfaithful, then eventually the common denominator would fall on me.

Similarly, a team can get lucky with one player, or unlucky with a player. Heck, even a few. But once you start regularly bringing in high-end talent that end up not working out as top-six forwards, you can't toss your hands up and blame "luck" anymore.

The Kings got lucky with Kopitar. He was a consensus top-5 pick who fell to 11 due to his nationality. The Kings got unlucky with Vilardi. He was a consensus top-5 pick who fell to 11 due to his nationality, but he missed multiple seasons with back issues.

But take a look at Nashville's drafts from 2003 - 2009. They came away with these players (along with several who didn't work out):
Shea Weber
Roman Josi
Ryan Suter
Pekka Rinne
Mattias Ekholm
Ryan Ellis
Craig Smith
Alexander Radulov
Patric Hornqvist
Colin Wilson
Cody Franson
Total picks made in that span: 62

Here are the top players returned from Edmonton:
Jordan Eberle
Sam Gagner
Andrew Cogliano
Devan Dubnyk
Jeff Petry
Riley Nash
Magnus Paajaarvi
Kyle Brodziak
Total picks made in that span: 53

If you want to throw Edmonton's 2010 draft too, to make the number of picks closer (they had 11, so the total is 64), then you can add Taylor Hall, Tyler Pitlick, and Martin Marincin as the top players Edmonton took from that draft.

You think this is just the end result of educated guesses, crunching numbers, and luck?
 
King'sPawn said:
But that's why you don't scout based on analytics alone. If it were that random and meaningless, teams would hire a bunch of stat geeks to crunch numbers and not spend hundreds of thousands of dollars hiring scouts to travel around the world to meet and watch them in person.

I wouldn't say without a doubt Spence gets taken in the first round in a redraft. It's only been 3 seasons since he was drafted. Not that I don't love the kid, but it's too early. I honestly think 5 seasons post draft is when you can start asking questions, because now we're all at the threshold of players being waiver eligible. That tells you when a team wants to keep a player in the NHL and risk not losing him for free, and also if other NHL teams still feel someone's worth taking on waivers to keep them in the NHL.

Nobody's disputing there's an element of luck that comes into play in how things turn out. But luck is when it's a singular incident.

I can say "I had bad luck with my ex-wife." That's a singular incident. But if I have a pattern of partners who become abusive or unfaithful, then eventually the common denominator would fall on me.

Similarly, a team can get lucky with one player, or unlucky with a player. Heck, even a few. But once you start regularly bringing in high-end talent that end up not working out as top-six forwards, you can't toss your hands up and blame "luck" anymore.

The Kings got lucky with Kopitar. He was a consensus top-5 pick who fell to 11 due to his nationality. The Kings got unlucky with Vilardi. He was a consensus top-5 pick who fell to 11 due to his nationality, but he missed multiple seasons with back issues.

But take a look at Nashville's drafts from 2003 - 2009. They came away with these players (along with several who didn't work out):
Shea Weber
Roman Josi
Ryan Suter
Pekka Rinne
Mattias Ekholm
Ryan Ellis
Craig Smith
Alexander Radulov
Patric Hornqvist
Colin Wilson
Cody Franson
Total picks made in that span: 62

Here are the top players returned from Edmonton:
Jordan Eberle
Sam Gagner
Andrew Cogliano
Devan Dubnyk
Jeff Petry
Riley Nash
Magnus Paajaarvi
Kyle Brodziak
Total picks made in that span: 53

If you want to throw Edmonton's 2010 draft too, to make the number of picks closer (they had 11, so the total is 64), then you can add Taylor Hall, Tyler Pitlick, and Martin Marincin as the top players Edmonton took from that draft.

You think this is just the end result of educated guesses, crunching numbers, and luck?
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I said....some teams do better scouting than others and consistently get more NHLers- but using the Weber vs Brendl example i would say that yes scouting 100% is educated guess, analytics and luck. Coulnt have put in any better actually.

Side question would love your opinion- would a team have better Stanley Cup chances if their non first rd picks were churning out NHLers vs Skilled high First rd picks hitting but misses in lower rounds thus hurting team depth? Im a big believer in depth and balance myself. If Turcotte fizzles but Bjornfot end ups top 4 and Kaliyez Top 6- I consider that a net victory.
 
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kingsfan28 said:
Same with the would've, could've, should've 3-4 years after the draft [ or further back]. It's pretty easy to re-draft after the fact. See Teubert, Colton.
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And all the long-winded “explanations” mean absolutely nothing. LOL. But its a discussion board so armchair coaches and GMs - whatever.
 
kingsfan28 said:
Same with the would've, could've, should've 3-4 years after the draft [ or further back]. It's pretty easy to re-draft after the fact. See Teubert, Colton.
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Another example would be Brown. Parise would've been the better pick. Richards would've been the better pick. Perry would've been the better pick. Of course, if they pick one of them instead, not only is every pick and draft after that different, but every future season is unknowable. Maybe they get 13th instead of 11th in 2005. Or, maybe 1st, but they're better in 2008, so no Doughty.
 
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mysterman2 said:
I said....some teams do better scouting than others and consistently get more NHLers- but using the Weber vs Brendl example i would say that yes scouting 100% is educated guess, analytics and luck. Coulnt have put in any better actually.

Side question would love your opinion- would a team have better Stanley Cup chances if their non first rd picks were churning out NHLers vs Skilled high First rd picks hitting but misses in lower rounds thus hurting team depth? Im a big believer in depth and balance myself. If Turcotte fizzles but Bjornfot end ups top 4 and Kaliyez Top 6- I consider that a net victory.
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Sorry, I misunderstood the point. I think too many resources get put into it for teams to depend on those three factors, so I just disagree.

Regarding the second point, I am a huge believer in balance, but with that balance means you have to hit with your top picks as well as mid-late picks.

For example, Edmonton has hit with their top picks a couple times, getting Draisaitl and McDavid. They have the top-end talent, but suffer from depth.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, does a good job landing depth with their 2nd round picks on. However, they've been relying on Kopitar to shoulder the offense for so long. If, heaven forbid, Kopitar gets a season-ending injury tomorrow, they don't have any top-end prospects who have currently shown the capability to carry the offense. This is among many reasons I keep beating the drum of putting the prospects in bigger responsibilities so everyone (especially the org) can tell how truly ready someone is.

Every cup-winning team has hit on several picks, both in and out of the first round. Of course, you can buoy yourself a bit by trading valuable players.

As Kopitar and Doughty's contracts and possibly careers are coming to an end, Los Angeles needs some youth who have come up from draft day on to set the identity of the team and be the new franchise player. With the grit that Turcotte brought, or with the leadership Clarke took when his teammate was murdered back in AAA hockey, they are players I most hoped would set the team identity (don't get me wrong, I love Byfield, but I haven't heard any stories about him bringing a team together).
 
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Ziggy Stardust said:
I expect this to happen in two years.
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Age 27-34 Auston Matthews. That's a tricky bet when he'll be commanding $13M or more. I think skill-wise he's absolutely worth it, but his durability gives me cause for concern.

I guess at that point if you think this team can win a Cup in those first 3 years, you just do it and worry later. Flags fly forever and then us fans argue even more the next time the team has to rebuild. I'd look forward to the "we should've traded Matthews after X season" arguments in the early 2030s.
 
Herby said:
Imagine basically transitioning down the middle from Kopitar and Carter to Stutzle and Zegras.

Like the Green Bay Packers at QB.
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Say they did draft those two, where would they be playing right now? Kopitar and Danault have the 1c and 2c locked for years. They're not going to be getting top minutes like they are now, so where do they play? Split the 3c time, because both can't be there and would you trust either of those 2 to play a shutdown role? I don't care what team you're on, some defense is required.
 
KingsFan7824 said:
Another example would be Brown. Parise would've been the better pick. Richards would've been the better pick. Perry would've been the better pick. Of course, if they pick one of them instead, not only is every pick and draft after that different, but every future season is unknowable. Maybe they get 13th instead of 11th in 2005. Or, maybe 1st, but they're better in 2008, so no Doughty.
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That 2003 could been a total bust had Jasseman not been taken by the Rags. The lack of vision by Al Murray was staggering. Richard, Carter, Parise all there to be taken had they even attempted to move up. Even if they got 1st in 08' Dean would've been savvy and got another pick out of Tampa to switch spots. It was Doughty all along from what he said.
 
King'sPawn said:
I honestly think a case could be made that Stutzle and Zegras would be in the same position Byfield/Kaliyev/Turcotte are in if they were drafted by the Kings.

Yannetti essentially said they prefer slow-cooking their prospects. They'd still be leaning on Kopitar as 1C, and Danault's such a good get that I don't see them passing up on trying to sign him.

Would they have produced more? Possibly. But the Kings would still be leaning on the vets to lead the charge. Which is kind of the issue I'm arguing. They aren't very flexible in their attitude of handling prospects.
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Huge cope, but not really falsifiable, I guess.

Edit: Actually, no, you can’t say this for Turcotte. The kid is not even consistent in the AHL, and has been passed on the depth chart by other prospects in the system.

The Kings would be better in every conceivable way if they had drafted Zegras instead. This is inarguable.
 
kingsfan28 said:
Say they did draft those two, where would they be playing right now? Kopitar and Danault have the 1c and 2c locked for years. They're not going to be getting top minutes like they are now, so where do they play? Split the 3c time, because both can't be there and would you trust either of those 2 to play a shutdown role? I don't care what team you're on, some defense is required.
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I think the signing of Danault was in direct result of the failures of Turcotte and Vilardi to show them that they were even remotely close to being 2C’s.

I believe that based on the seasons that those two would have had in 20-21 that Danault is not signed and the Kings centers last year on the 3 scoring lines are Kopitar, Zegras and Stutzle instead of Kopitar-Danault-Byfield

No team in NHL history is intentionally setting back promising prospects tgey believed in by committing 5 years to a veteran in his prime to essentially replace one of them when you already had another C signed for 3 more years.

Are you telling me you think that had Vilardi had a breakthrough season in 20-21 and with Byfield already drafted that they sign Danault?
 
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Herby said:
I think the signing of Danault was in direct result of the failures of Turcotte and Vilardi to show them that they were even remotely close to being 2C’s.

I believe that based on the seasons that those two would have had in 20-21 that Danault is not signed and the Kings centers last year on the 3 scoring lines are Kopitar, Zegras and Stutzle instead of Kopitar-Danault-Byfield

No team in NHL history is intentionally setting back promising prospects tgey believed in by committing 5 years to a veteran in his prime to essentially replace one of them when you already had another C signed for 3 more years.

Are you telling me you think that had Vilardi had a breakthrough season in 20-21 and with Byfield already drafted that they sign Danault?
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Legit crazy how many few people realize that the Kings are doing all these addictions because the prospects at forward suck.

Yet they’re still defending them.
 
Herby said:
I think the signing of Danault was in direct result of the failures of Turcotte and Vilardi to show them that they were even remotely close to being 2C’s.

I believe that based on the seasons that those two would have had in 20-21 that Danault is not signed and the Kings centers last year on the 3 scoring lines are Kopitar, Zegras and Stutzle instead of Kopitar-Danault-Byfield

No team in NHL history is intentionally setting back promising prospects tgey believed in by committing 5 years to a veteran in his prime to essentially replace one of them when you already had another C signed for 3 more years.

Are you telling me you think that had Vilardi had a breakthrough season in 20-21 and with Byfield already drafted that they sign Danault?
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Not at all. Valardi's covid season was rough. Trial by fire and he needed thicker flame proof underwear among other things. Disagree with Danault, he brought leadership this group was lacking since Williams and co left, and was a great signing.
 
johnjm22 said:
He'll probably want 7 years at 13M or something.

The Coyotes will have plenty of cap space I'm sure.
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Matthews could be heading to TB to replace Stamkos for less money, no state income tax in Florida, and a chance to win a Stanley Cup. Both of their contracts are done after the 2023-24 season.

Matthews would join Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, Foote, and Vasilevskiy.

Of course, right now Tampa is over the cap, so I expect Stamkos will get injured this summer, go on LTIR, and be ready for the playoffs. I didn't actually crunch the numbers on this, but I know how it will drive many TB haters here crazy.

​

 
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