So there are two things I have been trying to explain this whole time. The first is that PDO as a stat was developed to try to find teams that were benefiting from puck luck. Those teams that were consistently getting outshot, but sneaking out wins. Or the opposite in teams who were dominating, but were snakebit. The second is that I don't think that PDO is all luck, but I do not believe it is all skill. Which is why I find it kind of useless as a stat, you cant determine why a player is outperforming their expected goals. There is a difference between an Ovechkin and a Morgan Geekie. I do not find any value in a stat that elevates players for being horrible possession wise. As I said in my last post, Geekie would not have as high of a PDO if he wasn't the worst possession player on his team. Byfield is a similar case on the Kings, he is the lowest by damn near every metric, which is why despite having jist an even goal dofferential he has such a high PDO. Many other forwards on the team have positive goal differentials, but since they drive possession better they do not have as high of a PDO. There is no head in the ground for me, I understand how the stat works and have argued previously with RJ and many others for years that PDO isn't all luck, but that's precisely why I do not like the stat. It could represent either.
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So there are two things I have been trying to explain this whole time. The first is that PDO as a stat was developed to try to find teams that were benefiting from puck luck. Those teams that were consistently getting outshot, but sneaking out wins. Or the opposite in teams who were dominating, but were snakebit. The second is that I don't think that PDO is all luck, but I do not believe it is all skill. Which is why I find it kind of useless as a stat, you cant determine why a player is outperforming their expected goals. There is a difference between an Ovechkin and a Morgan Geekie. I do not find any value in a stat that elevates players for being horrible possession wise. As I said in my last post, Geekie would not have as high of a PDO if he wasn't the worst possession player on his team. Byfield is a similar case on the Kings, he is the lowest by damn near every metric, which is why despite having jist an even goal dofferential he has such a high PDO. Many other forwards on the team have positive goal differentials, but since they drive possession better they do not have as high of a PDO. There is no head in the ground for me, I understand how the stat works and have argued previously with RJ and many others for years that PDO isn't all luck, but that's precisely why I do not like the stat. It could represent either.
Piston
Fire Luc and Blake
What attitude problems? That is so unfair to label someone with without evidence. If you have some, please let us know, and I will stand corrected.
kingsfan28
Its A Kingspiracy !
One of the righty's will have to go in a deal, who know's they may move two if that's what it takes to get the right pairings. I could see two deals that get us another lefty later in the off season. Just one right now would be a big help. You move Walker and one of our boatload of prospects and maybe a pick to get the lefty. As for Turcotte's he;'s going nowhere unless it's for an elite dman who doesn't get injured all the time.
kingsboy11
Champions Again
I can be convinced to be okay with Clarke being sent back to Barrie on the condition that we see Spence up playing instead of Walker. If not then we're just wasting our time.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
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The attitude thing is nothing but conjecture. Being confident in yourself and talking a lot is not an attitude problem, being annoyed by those things is (Which has as much evidence as him having an attitude problem). The kid may be over enthusiastic or something like that but I doubt there’s a major issue with his attitude, in fact from what I can gather they seem pleased with him.
I’m not taking the politics in Team Canada to mean anything in regard to his attitude either as they’ve proven that its not a meritocracy.
Surf Nutz
Hockey Remote Viewer With A Frozen Finger
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
This is going to sound like blasphemy to a lot of Kings fans of the Sutter era, but possession numbers, particularly Corsi, are not the end all and be all of numbers.
funky
Build around Byfield, not the vets
- Mar 9, 2002
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Yes. Sorry my bad.
I thought that there was a Yannetti interview I listened to that he said that the selection wasn’t hockey related and the speculation at the time was a perceive attitude problem.
Have no evidence of it.
I hope the kid comes up and backs up his cockiness for the next 15 years. He is a treat to watch in the offensive zone.
Yep having big bodies pin the puck along the boards in the offensive end or play a game of keep away sure didn’t put a lot of pucks in the net for our teams. It did prevent the other teams from getting a ton of touches though.
- May 9, 2014
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Nope, never were. It’s why I immediately switch off when an argument on a players ability (or teams level) is based around one or two stats
Fair enough
I think he Yanetti something like his confidence might have rubbed some people up the wrong way, but that they had no concerns and liked his attitude … (it was a them problem) something along those lines..
They aren't, but at the time it was a tremendous indicator. The style of hockey in that era was slower, defensive, shot suppresive, and controlling. High Corsi teams are strong in all of those areas so it was a great measure of team effectiveness.
Outside of shot suppression all of that is kind of out the window right now, so team Corsi isn't very useful. Individual relative rates, sure, but not teams as a whole. Now it's more PDO, xGF, and controlled entries, because those are more descriptive of the current play style. PDO has weaknesses, but it measures two important things. Yes, it was originally thought of as "puck luck", but S% and SV% aren't as much luck as they used to be.
The style isn't crash the net, throw the puck there, and hope you get a bounce like it was 10 years ago. Shooting percentage didn't mean much because the shooter isn't the one scoring in that case. It was more about getting shots through (Corsi/Fenwick). Now it's more making plays, so players with better shooting skills are using them far more. The amount of opportunities where it's player vs. goalie has dramatically increased, so S% and Sv% are really important currently. You also need a goalie whose strength is to minimize angles and beat players one on one with the glove or blocker. They have to give themselves the best chance to stop open shots and breakaways vs. 8 people in front of the net.
It's one of the reasons (besides age) that I think Quick struggles now. He was never particularly good at shootouts/breakaways, just average. His strengths were tracking pucks, fighting through screens, and acrobatically stopping pucks that were bouncing god knows where. His style has always been susceptible to blocker side shots, and when shooters are more open they can pick that spot. He also used to be VERY aggressive against rushes, coming a good distance out to cut down angles. That of course leaves you open to lateral passes, which is the bread and butter of shooters in the league right now.
I don't think of it as blasphemy, it's just not nearly as useful anymore. If a stat doesn't reflect the playstyle of a league it's not going to be very good. Just like in baseball during a dead-ball era, measuring a pitchers fly ball/ground ball ratio isn't all that big of a deal because balls aren't flying out of the park. During a live ball era, that's a huge indicator.
(regardless of whether or not you think he is or should be available)
What do you guys have Grans valued at currently? Late 1st ish?
What do you guys have Grans valued at currently? Late 1st ish?
Schrute farms
LA Kings: new GM wanted -- inquire within
- Jul 7, 2020
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Idk about value in Grans. But availability — heck he should be one of the most available top prospects from the Kings (maybe even the top most likely to go). Where does yet another RHD ever find a spot to play on the Kings the next 4-7 years? Already too crowded and we can’t find a spot for Spence and Clarke.
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
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I don't think he's done much to boost his value. Of course, if a team offered a late first for him, the Kings should take it and run.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Trash Panda
Registered User
- May 12, 2021
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Nobody is paying a 1st for him, as they shouldn’t.
He is a 2/3rd pick guy at best. Hasn’t made himself more valuable since his draft.
Surf Nutz
Hockey Remote Viewer With A Frozen Finger
Thanks for the replies
I would leave a like but the board won't let me at this time 
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
I’m gonna throw a couple of lefty defensemen names out there. Guys on teams with little chance at the playoffs but having quietly good seasons on meh teams. Guys with good size, defensive defensemen to balance out the back end. Probably not gonna cost a ton, as opposed to a Chychron, for example.
Jake McCabe - solid player on a bad team, $4M per year for a couple more years
Niko Mikkola - Jeff Schultz type, $1.9M expiring contract
a couple of under the radar trade targets?
Jake McCabe - solid player on a bad team, $4M per year for a couple more years
Niko Mikkola - Jeff Schultz type, $1.9M expiring contract
a couple of under the radar trade targets?
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
A Hawks fan brought up McCabe on the trade board and someone else threw out Mikkola.
I mean I guess, they just don't seem like upgrades worthy of throwing assets at, when the closets are stocked and we need an impact LHD, not just a body. Otherwise why not just use Bjornfot or Moverare?
But it's a good thought, looking under the radar.
AbsentMojo
F-ing get up and hunt! Cmon Todd!
- Apr 18, 2018
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Has it been discussed somewhere re Clarke loaned to Barrie? maybe it was obvious so was not even newsworthy.. im fine with it myself
Some GF% vs Competition charts since we are around the halfway point.
Forwards (not sure why Roy is in there):
Vilardi, Fiala, and Kaliyev are really causing problems for the opposition playing "down" the lineup, even though ice time is pretty spread. Having 3 that can score and still play enough defense to slow the opposition is really, really effective. You can see Kempe's struggles vs last year a bit here, but he'll likely hit a streak and still end up around 30g, 50pts. You can also see Grundy's lack of effectiveness compared to how well he was playing.
I was also ready to give on Kupari, but he's been fantastic lately. Putting him down on the 4th has been a keen move, especially with JAD. I know there is always a lot of grumbling about putting a scoring prospect down the lineup as it's not putting them in a position to succeed, but Kupari is an example of a player that has flourished. Even though he's not on the chart due to injury, Byfield has played his best hockey by far up with Kopitar (he would be right next to Fiala but with Q of competition slightly positive. Every player is different, and the coaches have figured a lot out through trial and error.
I know AI comes up constantly as a trade offering, but he always faces top competition and he's always damn effective. He's a fantastic play-driver, and an absolute bargain at his salary. Arvidsson has been a beast this year.
Here is the Defense:
Not hard to see that the 3rd pairing is really the only weakness on this team. Durzi and Roy have been passable, just inconsistent. They've been pretty solid lately. Anderson has been consistently effective game in and game out, he's one of the games better shut-down D at 23. When Durzi makes a mistake it's dreadful, but overall he's been better than last year and against much better competition.
Note that Edler and Walker really aren't that terrible, it's not like they are bleeding goals, but you can really see how the injuries both had have slowed them (in addition to Edler being a greybeard).
He's not on this chart due to sample size, but Clarke has a GF% of 44 which is lower than anyone on here. That's against competition slightly lower than Roy/Durzi. However, when it comes to dangerous chances for/against he's fantastic. He's got a DFF% of 61.2 which is phenomenal (DD is 2nd at 53.9 among the regulars). He was really dangerous but unlucky. It's a moot point now, but he can handle the NHL just fine at 19.
Lastly, Bjornfot faces competition equal to Edler/Walker, but is right at 50% for GF%. We know he's been better than both of them, this just reinforces that. He's had far better possession numbers as well and has played much better with and away from the puck.
Just a snapshot of overall effectiveness.
Forwards (not sure why Roy is in there):
Vilardi, Fiala, and Kaliyev are really causing problems for the opposition playing "down" the lineup, even though ice time is pretty spread. Having 3 that can score and still play enough defense to slow the opposition is really, really effective. You can see Kempe's struggles vs last year a bit here, but he'll likely hit a streak and still end up around 30g, 50pts. You can also see Grundy's lack of effectiveness compared to how well he was playing.
I was also ready to give on Kupari, but he's been fantastic lately. Putting him down on the 4th has been a keen move, especially with JAD. I know there is always a lot of grumbling about putting a scoring prospect down the lineup as it's not putting them in a position to succeed, but Kupari is an example of a player that has flourished. Even though he's not on the chart due to injury, Byfield has played his best hockey by far up with Kopitar (he would be right next to Fiala but with Q of competition slightly positive. Every player is different, and the coaches have figured a lot out through trial and error.
I know AI comes up constantly as a trade offering, but he always faces top competition and he's always damn effective. He's a fantastic play-driver, and an absolute bargain at his salary. Arvidsson has been a beast this year.
Here is the Defense:
Not hard to see that the 3rd pairing is really the only weakness on this team. Durzi and Roy have been passable, just inconsistent. They've been pretty solid lately. Anderson has been consistently effective game in and game out, he's one of the games better shut-down D at 23. When Durzi makes a mistake it's dreadful, but overall he's been better than last year and against much better competition.
Note that Edler and Walker really aren't that terrible, it's not like they are bleeding goals, but you can really see how the injuries both had have slowed them (in addition to Edler being a greybeard).
He's not on this chart due to sample size, but Clarke has a GF% of 44 which is lower than anyone on here. That's against competition slightly lower than Roy/Durzi. However, when it comes to dangerous chances for/against he's fantastic. He's got a DFF% of 61.2 which is phenomenal (DD is 2nd at 53.9 among the regulars). He was really dangerous but unlucky. It's a moot point now, but he can handle the NHL just fine at 19.
Lastly, Bjornfot faces competition equal to Edler/Walker, but is right at 50% for GF%. We know he's been better than both of them, this just reinforces that. He's had far better possession numbers as well and has played much better with and away from the puck.
Just a snapshot of overall effectiveness.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
I personally don't see Kupari as a 'scoring prospect' any more anyway, frankly. He's just a gigantic Trevor Lewis, and I say that affectionately. He can be an absolute force if he continues to embrace that. High end bottom sixer. Big, fast, can check, good IQ, will score if you treat them like a 'non-dangerous' 4th line.
- May 9, 2014
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Is it official? Last I looked it was speculation and on unidentified ‘source’.
edit: yep it’s official. So disappointing they didn’t make space for a future corner piece that outplayed Walker and had he kept playing would have improved quickly (as he has done throughout his career.
Trash Panda
Registered User
- May 12, 2021
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I always questioned his scoring touch translating to the NHL, and it definitely seems like he is having issues with it.
If he can use his speed to be a north/south glass banger, he will be a bottom-six staple here or somewhere else.
When he starts floating and skating past checks instead of finishing, he becomes all but forgettable.
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