Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread 2022-23 Season Part 2

[Kingfan1967]

We’re starting next year in Australia with the f***ing dingos??? I guess the koala will feel at home at least.

Maybe he'll want to stay with his own kind.

 

[Fishhead]

Neither skated today.. they should be skating on their own at least if they are close you would think

Vilardi has been skating here and there so he's been on the ice. He was in red the other day. There is zero reason to push it with anyone, probably why we haven't heard a peep about Fiala.

I get the feeling that Kevin's injury is more discomfort than anything, explaining the in and out of the lineup for a while there. Once they clinched we haven't seen him.

 

[tny760]

i'm thinking fiala is probably a gametime decision no matter what for game 1, i'm hoping gabe gets a no contact gameday practice on thursday though or else i'm afraid he's in the same boat

 

[Telos]

I have a feeling both will be playing whether they are 100% or not for better or worse.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I always look at +/- in relation to the team's goal differential.. if you are a minus on a team that is net positive (or a positive on a team with a negative). Then Ill see what line or pairing you are on and mentally adjust for ease or difficulty of competition... e.g. Danault gets some slack for having the hardest assignments usually. If you want to get more into it, look at zone starts and then dive into advanced analytics.. but for a rough gauge thats my approach.

That's why Danault was run out of town in MTL as well

they complained about his 'low' production (which was high because it was all 5v5) and ignored his f***ing 70% Dzone starts

 

[AbsentMojo]

Vilardi has been skating here and there so he's been on the ice. He was in red the other day. There is zero reason to push it with anyone, probably why we haven't heard a peep about Fiala.

I get the feeling that Kevin's injury is more discomfort than anything, explaining the in and out of the lineup for a while there. Once they clinched we haven't seen him.

By now he's had MRIs and they know exactly what he's dealing with. If he has a meniscus tear, sometimes they heal on their own but it takes quite awhile. Some parts of the meniscus dont heal and need to be cleaned up w a scope. Problem with the knee in general is that it doesnt get a lot of blood flow, so it heals very slowly.

That's why Danault was run out of town in MTL as well

they complained about his 'low' production (which was high because it was all 5v5) and ignored his f***ing 70% Dzone starts

And even after he shutdown every 1C in the playoffs that year.. you'd think that would wake them up.

 

[Johnny Utah]

It's funny how fans want JAD and Spence in the line-up when the Kings are already small and soft.

I counted the number of players and times the Kings were bullied this year:

-Dillon (ran the Kings the whole game) - even the Kings broadcasters pointed this out.
-Zadarov (ran the Kings in two games including the cross check Byfield)
-Tkachuk (put his stick on Quick's helmet) - at least Lemieux tried to get at him.
-Oilers (last two games, in particular last game completely BULLIED).
-MacDavid hit on Anderson - no response.
-Vatrano shot on Copley, who had to stand up for himself LOL.
-Gourde/Dunn/Oleksiak ran and yapped everyone.

Am I blind here?

Also, let's go back to the first round exit last year and Kassian, Kane and Nurse basically bullying everyone and the Kings only had Lemieux.

What about Doughty in the closing press conference saying the Kings more size on D. Everyone is SMALL. Does that mean more Jordan Spence players? Not a Spence hater, but if you have in, then you have to move a Walker out and put an Edler, Gavrikov or a tough LHD next to him.

Adding to my list...

Joshua hit on Grundstrom.
Nurse knocking Grundstrom's teeth out.
Cogliano cheap shot on Kempe.

 

[All The Kings Men]

There are certain stats that over time average out to be meaningful, ie the case you mentioned (just step on ice and end up with goal against) is balanced by hopping off the ice right before a goal is scored.. but over time the bs cancels out and you are left with a valuable stat. Apparently +/- isnt one of those according to Statto. Edit: it must have some value or why would they keep track of it?

Any stat with a huge sample size is more valuable than a "better" stat with a tiny sample size.


That is not my opinion... that is the opinion of people I have spoken to who are paid to do NHL statting for a living and are well respected for their work in that field.

As for +/-

It has value... just not as a final destination.

If I get to the start of a hiking trail and there's a load of bear poo next to the trail head it is not definitive proof that there are bears in the area... but it will make me look a lot closer at other more reliable data points to see how I feel about the possibility of bears.

If a player goes from being a big + one year to being a big - the next or vice versa... it's worthy of some thought and investigation.

 

[lumbergh]

There are certain stats that over time average out to be meaningful, ie the case you mentioned (just step on ice and end up with goal against) is balanced by hopping off the ice right before a goal is scored.. but over time the bs cancels out and you are left with a valuable stat. Apparently +/- isnt one of those according to Statto. Edit: it must have some value or why would they keep track of it?

I find +/- to be valuable over a long stretch, particularly for defensemen on a single team. It's an indication of how much you are outplaying your competition.

On the Kings you have in order:
Anderson +21
Doughty +13 (-3 SHGA)
Gavrikov +11 (in only 19 games!)
Roy +7
Edler -1
Walker -3
Durzi -12 (-6 SHGA)

Anderson-Doughty have been excellent this year, as has Gavrikov-Roy, Edler-Walker meh, Durzi-Roy not good at all. Besides points, +/- is a good, quick way to find those hidden good defensemen who tilt the ice and/or keep the puck out of their net. Durzi is not one of them.

For forwards or for short intervals, it's not all that useful.

 

[LAKings88]

Any stat with a huge sample size is more valuable than a "better" stat with a tiny sample size.


That is not my opinion... that is the opinion of people I have spoken to who are paid to do NHL statting for a living and are well respected for their work in that field.

As for +/-

It has value... just not as a final destination.

If I get to the start of a hiking trail and there's a load of bear poo next to the trail head it is not definitive proof that there are bears in the area... but it will make me look a lot closer at other more reliable data points to see how I feel about the possibility of bears.

If a player goes from being a big + one year to being a big - the next or vice versa... it's worthy of some thought and investigation.

Guessing this supposed trail is in the woods?

 

[Lt Dan]

Adding to my list...

Joshua hit on Grundstrom.
Nurse knocking Grundstrom's teeth out.
Cogliano cheap shot on Kempe.

Are you checking this list twice? Santa has raised the bar on lists

 

[Master Yoda]

Adding to my list...

Joshua hit on Grundstrom.
Nurse knocking Grundstrom's teeth out.
Cogliano cheap shot on Kempe.

So you want MacEwen in the lineup? Same guy that was in the lineup when Fiala, Vilardi, Durzi, Edler were all injured and did nothing?

 

[Lt Dan]

So you want MacEwen in the lineup? Same guy that was in the lineup when Fiala, Vilardi, Durzi, Edler were all injured and did nothing?

How I read your posts because of your username:
Want MacEwen in the lineup do you? He he
Nothing did he when Fiala, Vilardi, Durzi, Edler were all injured

 

[Statto]

Some more general +/- thoughts.

With +/- it’s worth understanding that it’s a legacy stat kept initially by guys on the bench. It started in the 50’s and became common in the NHL in the 60’s.It was relatively easy for a bench/assistant to scrawl down the numbers of the guys on the ice for each goal which was one of its appeals.

Not sure when stats started getting collected by dedicated stats people in the US but I did my first +/- collection as a one off when I was the teams stick boy in 1989 (The assistant coach was away for a couple of games and it was usually his job). I started collecting and collating it in 90/91 and I know only a couple teams had someone dedicated in the UK at that time. There was no official league record and as far as I know there still isn’t in the UK.

I have always said I actually wish it wasn’t published because it is only really a historical tool for coaches and teams. They will also view it through the prism of a specific context and these days I seriously doubt they look at it because they don’t care what the +/- was a year ago. Scouting probably finds it helpful in leagues that don’t produce detailed analytics, but even then only as an indicator to highlight things to be investigated further.

As I said before I like the stat but only now as a flag for something to investigate. I’d look for anomalies or outliers and then look into it more. So if someone was unusually high or low compared to team/line mates, a high scorer with a bad +/- of a low scorer with a good one. It’s not an answer to a question but it is something that makes you say ‘why‘?

 

[All The Kings Men]

As I said before I like the stat but only now as a flag for something to investigate. I’d look for anomalies or outliers and then look into it more. So if someone was unusually high or low compared to team/line mates, a high scorer with a bad +/- of a low scorer with a good one. It’s not an answer to a question but it is something that makes you say ‘why‘?

I don't really like my check engine light. It doesn't tell me anything about my mileage or how much tread is left on my tires. I only like it now as a flag for something to investigate.

Snark aside you said it much better than I was attempting to.

Kopitar/Kempe and Danault/Moore swapped places this year from last when it comes to +/-

WHY????

The answer may be totally dull and simple but even if it is... it would be good to know moving forward.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I don't really like my check engine light. It doesn't tell me anything about my mileage or how much tread is left on my tires. I only like it now as a flag for something to investigate.

Snark aside you said it much better than I was attempting to.

Kopitar/Kempe and Danault/Moore swapped places this year from last when it comes to +/-

WHY????

The answer may be totally dull and simple but even if it is... it would be good to know moving forward.

For example... just on a hunch

2021-22
Kopitar minutes against "Elite" comp
514
11 GF 16GA

Danault min vs Elite comp
396.8
20 GF 20 GA

2022-23
Kopitar MIN vs Elite Comp
413
20 GF 12 GA

Danault MIN vs Elite Comp
423.6
10GF 13 GA

So ok... now we know that this season the harder matchups slightly shifted to Danault away from Kopitar.

VALUABLE INFORMATION no?

 

[deaderhead28]

Welp, if you don’t already know we finally have an answer to the old Brick Faber question.. he was indeed going to sign with LA after this season..

Brock Faber, the Frozen Four and a shot at a Minnesota 'dream come true' before joining the Wild

Faber is expected to sign with the Wild after his junior Gophers season but for now "has his eye on the ball because there's no other ball."

theathletic.com

Pay wall unfortunately can't read the article.

 

[BringTheReign]

Agreed. And I like Moore a lot, too.

Blake way overcommits on his contracts. I’ve been beating this drum for a while now. It’s been a pattern since Kovalchuk.

Kempe, Anderson, and Danault are great value. Moore’s deal has the potential to be the second worst on the team after Petersen though…

 

[All The Kings Men]

Pay wall unfortunately can't read the article.

It might never have happened had Faber signed with Los Angeles after his sophomore year. As big of a Wild fan as he is and was, he was all-in on the Kings. But he had unfinished business on the Gophers’ campus after advancing to last year’s Frozen Four.

...

Faber’s parents say Kings general manager Rob Blake and his staff treated Faber like gold, and Faber was initially devastated last June when he learned he was dealt to the Wild along with a first-round pick for Kevin Fiala.

He was writing an essay for his computer ethics class and put his phone across the room so he wouldn’t be distracted. He kept hearing it buzz and finally got up to make sure nothing was wrong. The missed calls were from Blake. He called back and learned of the trade.

Faber quickly called his dad, who was shopping at Home Depot. Then his mom.

“He was hurt,” Karri recalls. “He asked, ‘What did I do wrong? Why don’t they want me?'”

“He didn’t know the business part of it,” Jay says. “I actually called Motzko and said, ‘I’m worried about Brock because he thinks the Kings didn’t want him.’ He said, ‘No, no, here’s how much (the Wild) wanted him.”

 

[Johnny Utah]

So you want MacEwen in the lineup? Same guy that was in the lineup when Fiala, Vilardi, Durzi, Edler were all injured and did nothing?

No I don’t want MacEwen. I want 2-3 gritty players. A tough LHD and two scrappy forwards. So someone is constantly on the ice watching out for our young and skilled players.

 

[FSL KINGS]

I'm back! Have an overzealous landscaping project that's been keeping me busy lately.

Vilardi: "driving play" requires consistency. If you aren't consistent then you have stretches where you aren't doing anything. Unfortunately with Vilardi that also includes health. Vilardi is at a career high 63 games 41 points. Has he showed flashes? Yup. Some good stretches? Yup. Is he a consistent producer with a proven track record? Nope.

For reference, Iafallo has a 43 point career high & a much more consistent track record. Vilardi is contributing on an Iafallo level this year. I don't believe in "on pace for" so don't bother. If Vilardi were healthy though .

Fiala, boy that offense dried up with him out.

Looks like the matches are pretty set unless Vegas blows their last game. Then things could get crazy.

Todd not inspiring a lot of confidence after that safe, "have to stay out of the box" game against the Oilers. If you want to win put 97 & 29 on their butts every shift. King's have players with the size & speed to catch those guys. Can Todd get this team motivated? Guess we'll find out.

 

[Master Yoda]

No I don’t want MacEwen. I want 2-3 gritty players. A tough LHD and two scrappy forwards. So someone is constantly on the ice watching out for our young and skilled players.

Yeah, we all want those types that can also play but the Kings don't really have any. And that's a completely different issue. Lineup decisions vs roster construction.

There's no point in having a random scrub in the lineup over guys like JAD and Kaliyev when these guys are clearly contributing more on the ice and are guys that you want playing more and gaining experience down the stretch.

How I read your posts because of your username:
Want MacEwen in the lineup do you? He he
Nothing did he when Fiala, Vilardi, Durzi, Edler were all injured

 

[Sol]

Weren’t the Kings having trouble signing Brock? I remember one of the issues they had was that it seemed like Brock was being difficult.

 

[All The Kings Men]

Weren’t the Kings having trouble signing Brock? I remember one of the issues they had was that it seemed like Brock was being difficult.

No.

This is why some people (myself included) freak out about the minor details and sticking points of narratives that get formed.

One thing gets said somewhere and then it gets repeated slightly differently and slightly differently and tweeted without context and then repeated on a podcast or a blog and then repeated slightly differently again and by the time a few weeks or months have gone by something that is completely untrue is just part of the historical record.

It's insane.

EDIT: The RUMOR was that they offered Brock Faber a contract at the end of last season and that to entice him to sign it they were willing to burn a year of the ELC but that he rebuffed them.

To the best of my knowledge that was never repeated or confirmed by anybody. In the Athletic article that was recently published there is no confirmation of that particular story but does say that Faber, on his own initiative, returned to college to try and win a national title.

There has never been anybody or anyone that ever described Faber as difficult or anything other than a delightful young man who cares about his family.

EDIT EDIT: And the COVER for that behaviour is always a phrase like "I'm hearing" or "people are saying"

For example Frank Seravelli saying

To say Jonathan Quick is unhappy with the trade, I'm told, is "an understatement."

Translation : Frank DIDN'T speak to Quick, has NO IDEA what Quick's reaction was or how he felt about anything.

Get's to say it based on something someone told him without consequence and riles up a Kings fan base and upsets a bunch of people. For what?

EDIT EDIT EDIT: OR the Chychrun rumors.

I laid out somewhere on this board the timeline of how that narrative even started but at some point it took on a life of it's own and you had independent hockey media with no particular connections or sources repeating with unbelievable confidence that the Chychrun deal was imminent. Whipping fans up and building expectation for something that was, it seems, never going to actually happen.

No apologies. No acknowledgment that they were essentially making things up. No dip in confidence moving forward with similar comments or predictions.

Drives me nuts. I've said too much.

 

[Sol]

No.

This is why some people (myself included) freak out about the minor details and sticking points of narratives that get formed.

One thing gets said somewhere and then it gets repeated slightly differently and slightly differently and tweeted without context and then repeated on a podcast or a blog and then repeated slightly differently again and by the time a few weeks or months have gone by something that is completely untrue is just part of the historical record.

It's insane.

EDIT: The RUMOR was that they offered Brock Faber a contract at the end of last season and that to entice him to sign it they were willing to burn a year of the ELC but that he rebuffed them.

To the best of my knowledge that was never repeated or confirmed by anybody. In the Athletic article that was recently published there is no confirmation of that particular story but does say that Faber, on his own initiative, returned to college to try and win a national title.

There has never been anybody or anyone that ever described Faber as difficult or anything other than a delightful young man who cares about his family.

EDIT EDIT: And the COVER for that behaviour is always a phrase like "I'm hearing" or "people are saying"

For example Frank Seravelli saying

To say Jonathan Quick is unhappy with the trade, I'm told, is "an understatement."

Translation : Frank DIDN'T speak to Quick, has NO IDEA what Quick's reaction was or how he felt about anything.

Get's to say it based on something someone told him without consequence and riles up a Kings fan base and upsets a bunch of people. For what?

EDIT EDIT EDIT: OR the Chychrun rumors.

I laid out somewhere on this board the timeline of how that narrative even started but at some point it took on a life of it's own and you had independent hockey media with no particular connections or sources repeating with unbelievable confidence that the Chychrun deal was imminent. Whipping fans up and building expectation for something that was, it seems, never going to actually happen.

No apologies. No acknowledgment that they were essentially making things up. No dip in confidence moving forward with similar comments or predictions.

Drives me nuts. I've said too much.

Good to know and thanks for the clarity. So the whole “it’s either Minnesota or nothing” was fake.

Crazy.